Property market...... what say you?
Discussion
How does everyone feel the property market is behaving now - and how does it look for you all over the next four years.
I feel that the property market has been resilient toward the stamp duty issues, Brexit and hung parliament etc etc. It seems to have weathered the storm.
But I have a dilemma currently. I was looking to sell of some of my BTL properties and refine my whole portfolio... but funny things happen come crunch time. We have a buyer on a premium property; relatively niche and doesn't really appeal to a wide range of people due to it being an apartment costing £750,000 (most will want a house for that) - having got a buyer; part of me thinks sell sell sell... but I wonder whether to hang on another four years perhaps and rent it out. Will make 100k in rent over that time despite any ups or downs in value.
How does the future look for you?
I feel that the property market has been resilient toward the stamp duty issues, Brexit and hung parliament etc etc. It seems to have weathered the storm.
But I have a dilemma currently. I was looking to sell of some of my BTL properties and refine my whole portfolio... but funny things happen come crunch time. We have a buyer on a premium property; relatively niche and doesn't really appeal to a wide range of people due to it being an apartment costing £750,000 (most will want a house for that) - having got a buyer; part of me thinks sell sell sell... but I wonder whether to hang on another four years perhaps and rent it out. Will make 100k in rent over that time despite any ups or downs in value.
How does the future look for you?
The realities of the market in prime areas are much worse than what you've read about. It doesn't seem as bad because very little is selling so there is a paucity of data to illustrate what buyers are currently prepared to pay. I believe that there will be a ripple effect which will affect all areas in some way. I wouldn't anticipate much / any capital appreciation over the next 48 months, you will likely see a fall in values and perhaps a recovery up to current levels.
For me it depends on if you have a better idea/need for the money.
The issue with property is the entrance and exit costs are huge. If you think you might want exposure again at some point to that sector, keep it and ride out any storms long term. The time of chopping and changing property, particularly high value property is over imho.
If you have a great opportunity to do something else with the capital, then sell.
The issue with property is the entrance and exit costs are huge. If you think you might want exposure again at some point to that sector, keep it and ride out any storms long term. The time of chopping and changing property, particularly high value property is over imho.
If you have a great opportunity to do something else with the capital, then sell.
Where I am (South East) I think the market is on a knife edge.
Transaction levels are down circa 40% although there are still some decent sales being achieved. With that said, we are seeing some sellers taking huge chunks off their Guide Price to get out of the market.
I can't say what is going to happen moving forwards as is so unpredictable, but I would say that generally sellers believe the market is resilient and are not willing to negotiate on prices, while buyers are sensing blood.
The gap between sellers expectations of value and true market value is widening every day.
I've only ever sold houses in a good/average market, and never seen a crash but those who have been selling houses in my office for 20-30 years say indicators and mood feels very much like quiet before the crash.
Would I buy a house in the south east (Oxfordshire) today? Absolutely not.
Transaction levels are down circa 40% although there are still some decent sales being achieved. With that said, we are seeing some sellers taking huge chunks off their Guide Price to get out of the market.
I can't say what is going to happen moving forwards as is so unpredictable, but I would say that generally sellers believe the market is resilient and are not willing to negotiate on prices, while buyers are sensing blood.
The gap between sellers expectations of value and true market value is widening every day.
I've only ever sold houses in a good/average market, and never seen a crash but those who have been selling houses in my office for 20-30 years say indicators and mood feels very much like quiet before the crash.
Would I buy a house in the south east (Oxfordshire) today? Absolutely not.
FrankAbagnale said:
Where I am (South East) I think the market is on a knife edge.
Transaction levels are down circa 40% although there are still some decent sales being achieved. With that said, we are seeing some sellers taking huge chunks off their Guide Price to get out of the market.
I can't say what is going to happen moving forwards as is so unpredictable, but I would say that generally sellers believe the market is resilient and are not willing to negotiate on prices, while buyers are sensing blood.
The gap between sellers expectations of value and true market value is widening every day.
I've only ever sold houses in a good/average market, and never seen a crash but those who have been selling houses in my office for 20-30 years say indicators and mood feels very much like quiet before the crash.
Would I buy a house in the south east (Oxfordshire) today? Absolutely not.
Spot on.Transaction levels are down circa 40% although there are still some decent sales being achieved. With that said, we are seeing some sellers taking huge chunks off their Guide Price to get out of the market.
I can't say what is going to happen moving forwards as is so unpredictable, but I would say that generally sellers believe the market is resilient and are not willing to negotiate on prices, while buyers are sensing blood.
The gap between sellers expectations of value and true market value is widening every day.
I've only ever sold houses in a good/average market, and never seen a crash but those who have been selling houses in my office for 20-30 years say indicators and mood feels very much like quiet before the crash.
Would I buy a house in the south east (Oxfordshire) today? Absolutely not.
FrankAbagnale said:
I've only ever sold houses in a good/average market, and never seen a crash but those who have been selling houses in my office for 20-30 years say indicators and mood feels very much like quiet before the crash.
Whilst prices are high, a 'crash' IMHO needs additional factors. I've been through two property crashes, one caused by the interest rate doubling to 15% (can you imagine that folks?) and the other by the banking crisis. I think prices will correct somewhat but not crash. But ultimately it's all down to that thing called sentiment, and herds can stampede for no reason these days.FrankAbagnale said:
Where I am (South East) I think the market is on a knife edge.
Transaction levels are down circa 40% although there are still some decent sales being achieved. With that said, we are seeing some sellers taking huge chunks off their Guide Price to get out of the market.
I can't say what is going to happen moving forwards as is so unpredictable, but I would say that generally sellers believe the market is resilient and are not willing to negotiate on prices, while buyers are sensing blood.
The gap between sellers expectations of value and true market value is widening every day.
I've only ever sold houses in a good/average market, and never seen a crash but those who have been selling houses in my office for 20-30 years say indicators and mood feels very much like quiet before the crash.
Would I buy a house in the south east (Oxfordshire) today? Absolutely not.
I don't know much about property but, if I were looking to move, am I best waiting for the property market to crash to get a better deal on a larger property?Transaction levels are down circa 40% although there are still some decent sales being achieved. With that said, we are seeing some sellers taking huge chunks off their Guide Price to get out of the market.
I can't say what is going to happen moving forwards as is so unpredictable, but I would say that generally sellers believe the market is resilient and are not willing to negotiate on prices, while buyers are sensing blood.
The gap between sellers expectations of value and true market value is widening every day.
I've only ever sold houses in a good/average market, and never seen a crash but those who have been selling houses in my office for 20-30 years say indicators and mood feels very much like quiet before the crash.
Would I buy a house in the south east (Oxfordshire) today? Absolutely not.
Obviously I know my house will also fall in value, but surely a £230k in-demand town house will be less affected than a £500k property (considered relatively high value in my area)
Or will it crash and no one will try to sell so no cheaper houses available anyway?
Simpo Two said:
FrankAbagnale said:
I've only ever sold houses in a good/average market, and never seen a crash but those who have been selling houses in my office for 20-30 years say indicators and mood feels very much like quiet before the crash.
Whilst prices are high, a 'crash' IMHO needs additional factors. I've been through two property crashes, one caused by the interest rate doubling to 15% (can you imagine that folks?) and the other by the banking crisis. I think prices will correct somewhat but not crash. But ultimately it's all down to that thing called sentiment, and herds can stampede for no reason these days.While there isn't one factor that screams crash at the moment, I think there is a melting pot of smaller factors that combined are causing real problems in the market.
As some headline points from my office - these are guesstimates (pretty accurate) as I can't be bothered to run the reports right now...
- 40% down in transactions (although we have increased market share)
- 50% down in buyer registrations
- 20% down in instructions
- Must be 100%+ increase in the number price reductions
- Sales agreed prices vs asking prices as wide as they have ever been and getting worse
- Fall throughs up over 100%
- Buy to let purchases down 95%
- Lenders down valuing more often and tightening lending
I think the statistics take a little longer to be reported in the media, maybe 3-6 months. But as a real time snapshot on performance vs 2016 that is where we are.
Speaking to all the other agents in town, off the record, they all say the market is f*cked. Every single one of them!
Edited by FrankAbagnale on Tuesday 22 August 11:52
The property market isn't going to crash. It's too important for the government to allow that to happen.
Additionally, you can't really talk about the property market as a whole (UK) as it is so location sensitive, it isn't like a retail commodity where the price is the same regardless of whether the the item is sold in Bradford or Bristol.
If you look at the last 10 years and take London out of the equation then prices have barely got back to 2007 levels particularly if you allow for inflation, in many areas there has been no growth at all but this is masked by other areas which have grown.
To my mind London prices are going down, slowly.
There will be areas which are seen as better for capital growth and these will now go up but it really is very localised and each transaction is unique.
In the property market you simply aren't comparing apples with apples so to speak.
Additionally, you can't really talk about the property market as a whole (UK) as it is so location sensitive, it isn't like a retail commodity where the price is the same regardless of whether the the item is sold in Bradford or Bristol.
If you look at the last 10 years and take London out of the equation then prices have barely got back to 2007 levels particularly if you allow for inflation, in many areas there has been no growth at all but this is masked by other areas which have grown.
To my mind London prices are going down, slowly.
There will be areas which are seen as better for capital growth and these will now go up but it really is very localised and each transaction is unique.
In the property market you simply aren't comparing apples with apples so to speak.
Thankyou4calling said:
The property market isn't going to crash. It's too important for the government to allow that to happen.
Additionally, you can't really talk about the property market as a whole (UK) as it is so location sensitive, it isn't like a retail commodity where the price is the same regardless of whether the the item is sold in Bradford or Bristol.
If you look at the last 10 years and take London out of the equation then prices have barely got back to 2007 levels particularly if you allow for inflation, in many areas there has been no growth at all but this is masked by other areas which have grown.
To my mind London prices are going down, slowly.
There will be areas which are seen as better for capital growth and these will now go up but it really is very localised and each transaction is unique.
In the property market you simply aren't comparing apples with apples so to speak.
Agreed, very regional. I would definitely consider buying a small investment flat in Manchester/Milton Keynes for example. Additionally, you can't really talk about the property market as a whole (UK) as it is so location sensitive, it isn't like a retail commodity where the price is the same regardless of whether the the item is sold in Bradford or Bristol.
If you look at the last 10 years and take London out of the equation then prices have barely got back to 2007 levels particularly if you allow for inflation, in many areas there has been no growth at all but this is masked by other areas which have grown.
To my mind London prices are going down, slowly.
There will be areas which are seen as better for capital growth and these will now go up but it really is very localised and each transaction is unique.
In the property market you simply aren't comparing apples with apples so to speak.
Even London is too generic a term, out to the east there is decent growth still. In prime central there has already been a 15% drop in a lot of boroughs - although I am told from friends who run office in prime central locations it is starting to stabilise.
Thankyou4calling said:
The property market isn't going to crash. It's too important for the government to allow that to happen.
Additionally, you can't really talk about the property market as a whole (UK) as it is so location sensitive, it isn't like a retail commodity where the price is the same regardless of whether the the item is sold in Bradford or Bristol.
If you look at the last 10 years and take London out of the equation then prices have barely got back to 2007 levels particularly if you allow for inflation, in many areas there has been no growth at all but this is masked by other areas which have grown.
To my mind London prices are going down, slowly.
There will be areas which are seen as better for capital growth and these will now go up but it really is very localised and each transaction is unique.
In the property market you simply aren't comparing apples with apples so to speak.
Political elite all have property portfolios Additionally, you can't really talk about the property market as a whole (UK) as it is so location sensitive, it isn't like a retail commodity where the price is the same regardless of whether the the item is sold in Bradford or Bristol.
If you look at the last 10 years and take London out of the equation then prices have barely got back to 2007 levels particularly if you allow for inflation, in many areas there has been no growth at all but this is masked by other areas which have grown.
To my mind London prices are going down, slowly.
There will be areas which are seen as better for capital growth and these will now go up but it really is very localised and each transaction is unique.
In the property market you simply aren't comparing apples with apples so to speak.
We are selling at the moment in SE London - 2 bed flat, decent location, priced a bit below where the agents came in.
We had 30 viewings (ish) and 1 offer, which was unpreceedable - we then changed agents (2 weeks ago) and have had 1 more viewing. When we bought in 2014 it was 'best bids'. The market has utterly shifted and the buyers are in a far greater position of power, IMO.
The reason for this?
IMO, stamp duty and tax changes on BTLs have removed this portion of the market almost completely - when I bought I was competing against investors (and when I sold my last flat about half of the offers came from BTL investors).
Add a great deal of uncertainty about Brexit into the mix (my company is doing well, with record revenues, but still cite Brexit as a need for caution moving forward and scrutinise new hires and the business need massively. Of course, the company is quite happily banking the profits while using the 'brexit uncertainty' excuse. Job/promotion/security uncertainty has to be making a significant difference in the SE.
Saying all this, I'd gladly reduce the price and don't really care what I get for the place - but, and it's a big but, the houses we'd want to buy aren't getting noticeably cheaper. Perhaps a divergence between the 'flat' and 'house' market is developing, although that wouldn't really make sense - assuming most people sell to buy.
We had 30 viewings (ish) and 1 offer, which was unpreceedable - we then changed agents (2 weeks ago) and have had 1 more viewing. When we bought in 2014 it was 'best bids'. The market has utterly shifted and the buyers are in a far greater position of power, IMO.
The reason for this?
IMO, stamp duty and tax changes on BTLs have removed this portion of the market almost completely - when I bought I was competing against investors (and when I sold my last flat about half of the offers came from BTL investors).
Add a great deal of uncertainty about Brexit into the mix (my company is doing well, with record revenues, but still cite Brexit as a need for caution moving forward and scrutinise new hires and the business need massively. Of course, the company is quite happily banking the profits while using the 'brexit uncertainty' excuse. Job/promotion/security uncertainty has to be making a significant difference in the SE.
Saying all this, I'd gladly reduce the price and don't really care what I get for the place - but, and it's a big but, the houses we'd want to buy aren't getting noticeably cheaper. Perhaps a divergence between the 'flat' and 'house' market is developing, although that wouldn't really make sense - assuming most people sell to buy.
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