What are the chances of that?
Discussion
How strange. Last night I was in the kitchen and I glanced at the clock on the wall, because it was approaching 8:30 - which is the bedtime of one of my kids. As I looked at the clock it started to fall off the wall and I managed to catch it. It transpired that the nail holding it had come loose.
As I caught it and held it, I quickly did some brief sums in my head. I'm in the kitchen no more than 5% of the time. of that 5% I'm looking at the clock probably half of one percent. The chances of me looking at the clock at the exact time it's about to fall off the wall are a little remote to say the least.
Anyway, don't worry the clock is fine!!
As I caught it and held it, I quickly did some brief sums in my head. I'm in the kitchen no more than 5% of the time. of that 5% I'm looking at the clock probably half of one percent. The chances of me looking at the clock at the exact time it's about to fall off the wall are a little remote to say the least.
Anyway, don't worry the clock is fine!!
anonymous said:
[redacted]
It was the evening - our maid's gone ny then!
Well 5% would be just over an hour a day. And half of one percent, looking at the clock, would probably be overly generous. So: 1/20 X 1/200 = 1 in 2500 probability. Sad I know, but that's the way my mind operates!
anonymous said:
[redacted]
A kindred spirit. My missus thinks I'm mad. We've got some four-way traffic lights not far from my house and my wife said "you always have to queue here". In about 20 seconds I looked at the light sequence, the volume of traffic and worked out that, on the balance of probability, only one in forty times would you not need to queue. She then said "well I didn't have to queue one day last week", and I said that "well that's the one in forty isn't it".
So you were in the kitchen, watching the clock, at the precise moment it fell off the wall, then caught it. By my extended calculations using chaos theory and quantum dynamics I would put it to you that the chance that you caught the clock would be around one in erm one.
It has happened therefore the chance it did happen is approximately 100% though of course you could be lying to us.
It has happened therefore the chance it did happen is approximately 100% though of course you could be lying to us.
Jinx said:
So you were in the kitchen, watching the clock, at the precise moment it fell off the wall, then caught it. By my extended calculations using chaos theory and quantum dynamics I would put it to you that the chance that you caught the clock would be around one in erm one.
It has happened therefore the chance it did happen is approximately 100% though of course you could be lying to us.
What the hell? I still maintain that 1/2500 is a more realistic probability that 1/1, despite the quantum mechanics and chaos theory.
srebbe64 said:
What the hell? I still maintain that 1/2500 is a more realistic probability that 1/1, despite the quantum mechanics and chaos theory.
Probabilities are meaningless when the quantum probability has collasped into one state or the other. It's like saying, what are the chances that humans exist on Earth?; as we do exist on Earth the probability is one in one. What the odds are that a human-like being would exist on an earth-type planet is a totally different question and most likely would equal quite a small chance.
einion yrth said:
That does not, of necessity, make it non sad.
This much is true.
I know exactly what it is. My company specialises in buying companies, improving them and selling them. The first thing one has to do is look at the KPI's (key performance indicators) of a business, these could be enquiry generating percentages, percentage of conversion from enquiries to orders, average pipeline of orders, average payment times, client retention percentages, monitoring of costs, etc.. etc.. If you've got a big enough sample you can make some very accurate projections.
However, my problem is that I tend to think like this outside of work. For example, I recently went to a parents evening at my kids' school. I was chatting to one of the teachers when she said "you can only spend so much time with each child". I asked her how her days go and within a few seconds I deduced that she would spend less than one minute per day, per shild on a one-to-one basis. She looked at me like I was a bit mad, but when she considered the facts she was forced to agree.
Jinx said:
What the hell? I still maintain that 1/2500 is a more realistic probability that 1/1, despite the quantum mechanics and chaos theory.
Probabilities are meaningless when the quantum probability has collasped into one state or the other. It's like saying, what are the chances that humans exist on Earth?; as we do exist on Earth the probability is one in one. What the odds are that a human-like being would exist on an earth-type planet is a totally different question and most likely would equal quite a small chance.
Obviously if you're looking at historic events, then they are 100%. However, much of my life is spent attempting to predict future events, and I'm more interested in the future than the past. You can only do this by analysing probability, usually based on historic events.
srebbe64 said:
Million to one shots turn up nine times out of ten
Homer Simpson: "the chances of me being sick at a weekend must be a thousand to one".
esselte said:
I've given up gambling.
So have I. As such, I only back horses in a one horse race!
Knowing my luck it would fall at the last fence!
esselte said:
Incorrigible said:
Million to one shots turn up nine times out of ten
Homer Simpson: "the chances of me being sick at a weekend must be a thousand to one".
esselte said:
I've given up gambling.
So have I. As such, I only back horses in a one horse race!
Knowing my luck it would fall at the last fence!
Aah, but if it were me I would have looked at the last 200 races and calculated the probability of a horse (in a one horse race) falling at the last hurdle!
srebbe64 said:
Obviously if you're looking at historic events, then they are 100%. However, much of my life is spent attempting to predict future events, and I'm more interested in the future than the past. You can only do this by analysing probability, usually based on historic events.
All events are past events as we experience them; light only moves at lightspeed so by the time the light from an object reaches our eyes time has moved on. Our brains try to compensate for this using prejudgement based on previous experience - predicting the now as it were. All events therefore have already happened by the time they happen to us. Hence all probabilites they are going to happen or not happen are the same; when they happen, they have happened - as you have stated historical events are 100%: as all happening events have happened the chances of all happening events happening are also 100%. All probabilities therefore are one. QED.Gassing Station | The Pie & Piston Archive | Top of Page | What's New | My Stuff