Has the market peaked?
Discussion
As we all monitor the GT3.2 allocation tight rope, debate 911T credibility, and admire the latest and next new shinny product - what is really happening to the market? Are we at the top and waiting for the gradual decline to unveil itself, or has it already begun?
Looking on the OPC pre-owned dealer specific lists, these seem to be sitting stagnant, with what would appear to be pre-reg 718 models from 2016 with delivery miles been drip feed into the market place.
Porsche pre-owned car locator:
18 GT3 RS, 23 GT3, 17 GT4 - those aspiration enthusiastic customers taking out/adding some cash in return for new GT3 perhaps. Or the latest 'second best' option with hope to enable possible fulfilment of the 'golden egg' in the future.
That's not including the numerous GT products outside the OPC network sitting on SOR, been moved around various sales avenues - appearing at different prices to hopefully spark interest to get a sale.
I'm far from any form of statistcal specialist, but take away the distraction of the latest new shiny products - are we in for a correction?
GP
Steve Rance said:
No idea. The guys that want to buy will tell you yes. The guys that want to sell will say no.
What I can tell you is that the market for GT cars always flattens off in the winter and picks up again in the spring..
Agreed.What I can tell you is that the market for GT cars always flattens off in the winter and picks up again in the spring..
Having said that, in the earlier days Porsche made a few GT cars which satisfied the (low) demand of the road/track driver.
The latest GT products are very versatile, can be comfortable for road yet be used on track, and available with automatic gearboxes. This has opened up the buying segment, plus a lot of versions have been delivered. Hence you see 18 RS and 23 GT3 at OPCs. I assume not all are 991s but the majority will be.
I wonder if the recent excitement in the overs market has created more initial demand than longstanding one....or maybe the overs market means more owners are tempted to just park it on SOR at their dealer at a high price hoping for a bite, in return for free winter storage?
Will this topic ever die?
JZM started it all in true estate agent style. The 991 got announced as pdk only and they stuck 20k on everything manual in their showroom, never looked back.
I can recall depreciation threads being “banned” (frowned upon) from many forums as it ruined the enjoyment of owning the car...what do they say, the more things change the more they stay the same.
Sorry OP, I shouldn’t be posting on your thread but its the whole reason people rarely post about driving cars much these days. They are either talking about values or worrying about them.
JZM started it all in true estate agent style. The 991 got announced as pdk only and they stuck 20k on everything manual in their showroom, never looked back.
I can recall depreciation threads being “banned” (frowned upon) from many forums as it ruined the enjoyment of owning the car...what do they say, the more things change the more they stay the same.
Sorry OP, I shouldn’t be posting on your thread but its the whole reason people rarely post about driving cars much these days. They are either talking about values or worrying about them.
Said it before... Porsche are making GT cars in unprecedented numbers so gradually that's going to loosen up supply in terms of the amount of cars on the used market. That's fantastic news for people that want to buy and own these cars to drive them.
I think one of the results of that is that spec and mileage is going to matter more than it does now as buyers will be able to be even fussier. I think we're already starting to see it with 991.1....there are loads White Comfort spec cars on the market. I don't think they'll shift those cars that easily at current prices and over winter they'll get reduced fairly substantially...I still think good CS cars in a PTS colour will get good money.
I think one of the results of that is that spec and mileage is going to matter more than it does now as buyers will be able to be even fussier. I think we're already starting to see it with 991.1....there are loads White Comfort spec cars on the market. I don't think they'll shift those cars that easily at current prices and over winter they'll get reduced fairly substantially...I still think good CS cars in a PTS colour will get good money.
giles panizzi said:
As we all monitor the GT3.2 allocation tight rope, debate 911T credibility, and admire the latest and next new shinny product - what is really happening to the market? Are we at the top and waiting for the gradual decline to unveil itself, or has it already begun?
Looking on the OPC pre-owned dealer specific lists, these seem to be sitting stagnant, with what would appear to be pre-reg 718 models from 2016 with delivery miles been drip feed into the market place.
Porsche pre-owned car locator:
18 GT3 RS, 23 GT3, 17 GT4 - those aspiration enthusiastic customers taking out/adding some cash in return for new GT3 perhaps. Or the latest 'second best' option with hope to enable possible fulfilment of the 'golden egg' in the future.
That's not including the numerous GT products outside the OPC network sitting on SOR, been moved around various sales avenues - appearing at different prices to hopefully spark interest to get a sale.
I'm far from any form of statistcal specialist, but take away the distraction of the latest new shiny products - are we in for a correction?
GP
I personally think it might have. Looking on the OPC pre-owned dealer specific lists, these seem to be sitting stagnant, with what would appear to be pre-reg 718 models from 2016 with delivery miles been drip feed into the market place.
Porsche pre-owned car locator:
18 GT3 RS, 23 GT3, 17 GT4 - those aspiration enthusiastic customers taking out/adding some cash in return for new GT3 perhaps. Or the latest 'second best' option with hope to enable possible fulfilment of the 'golden egg' in the future.
That's not including the numerous GT products outside the OPC network sitting on SOR, been moved around various sales avenues - appearing at different prices to hopefully spark interest to get a sale.
I'm far from any form of statistcal specialist, but take away the distraction of the latest new shiny products - are we in for a correction?
GP
The question we need to ask is if it has turned does that mean all the rainbow cash chasers will now leave forcing a even higher amount of GT cars into the used car network slowing the market up even more. Let’s be honest a lot of people buying these cars over the last 4 years are trying to make a quick buck or beat the depreciation trend.
I also agree with the other poster, porsche have ramped up gt car production a lot. This will also have an impact when the dust settles. 991 gt3 cars are going be the first to take a hit IMO as I would imagine the original pre 991 enthusiasts would want a manual box.
That aside the 991 gen gt3 has held up well considering all it’s engine problems. If you bought one new for say 125k (to actually use, not flip it) you could of driven it for 6k Miles and still get out now for around 105k based on current opc trade in price.
What’s the cheapest used 991 gt3 which has been advertised for sale by a OPC? I can remember around 8 months ago seeing a 16k mile comfort spec car for £113k in a opc, red car from memory. Looked a good price at the time.
Edited by GT4RS on Monday 4th December 23:14
Cheib said:
Said it before... Porsche are making GT cars in unprecedented numbers so gradually that's going to loosen up supply in terms of the amount of cars on the used market. That's fantastic news for people that want to buy and own these cars to drive them.
.
But don't forget that whilst they are making more GT cars, so has demand increased many time more. When adding in emerging untapped markets into the mix demand is going to get higher..
Porsche have just had its best Nov ever from a Nos point. Try talking to others and they put the sales slow down to the time of year. lol....
Edited by APOLO1 on Tuesday 5th December 07:35
Aside from being more prolific in number, given engine issues, the 991.1 is going to be a difficult car to call out of OPC network/warranty limits.
As for anything earlier, it all broadly seems to be shifting, as well as any sport cars do in the approach to winter. The better stuff at the better dealers is definitely moving. Prices aren't ebbing upwards though, but it's hard to know if that's peak or just seasonal or merely a leveling out.
As has been said many, many times before on PH, you cannot buy new cars that drive like the older stuff, even the 997.2, much less a 996. Newer is not worse, but it's very different. The supply of the 'not new' is finite.
As for anything earlier, it all broadly seems to be shifting, as well as any sport cars do in the approach to winter. The better stuff at the better dealers is definitely moving. Prices aren't ebbing upwards though, but it's hard to know if that's peak or just seasonal or merely a leveling out.
As has been said many, many times before on PH, you cannot buy new cars that drive like the older stuff, even the 997.2, much less a 996. Newer is not worse, but it's very different. The supply of the 'not new' is finite.
I suspect the 'market euphoria' peaked two years ago. It feels like it has now plateaued and buyers are more discerning.
Economic confidence will probably determine which way it goes from here, although I wouldn't expect a '90s style crash - the market is a lot more mature, and underpinned by a more durable foundation of enthusiasts, specialists, collectors, and investors. The late '80s was punctuated by too many speculators.
It's often said that things go into the doldrums in winter and pick up in the spring, but a specialist dealer told me that 'spring' starts on Boxing Day - once Christmas is done the focus is already on the summer.
Economic confidence will probably determine which way it goes from here, although I wouldn't expect a '90s style crash - the market is a lot more mature, and underpinned by a more durable foundation of enthusiasts, specialists, collectors, and investors. The late '80s was punctuated by too many speculators.
It's often said that things go into the doldrums in winter and pick up in the spring, but a specialist dealer told me that 'spring' starts on Boxing Day - once Christmas is done the focus is already on the summer.
Cheib said:
Said it before... Porsche are making GT cars in unprecedented numbers so gradually that's going to loosen up supply in terms of the amount of cars on the used market. That's fantastic news for people that want to buy and own these cars to drive them.
I think one of the results of that is that spec and mileage is going to matter more than it does now as buyers will be able to be even fussier. I think we're already starting to see it with 991.1....there are loads White Comfort spec cars on the market. I don't think they'll shift those cars that easily at current prices and over winter they'll get reduced fairly substantially...I still think good CS cars in a PTS colour will get good money.
what are the best cars though ?I think one of the results of that is that spec and mileage is going to matter more than it does now as buyers will be able to be even fussier. I think we're already starting to see it with 991.1....there are loads White Comfort spec cars on the market. I don't think they'll shift those cars that easily at current prices and over winter they'll get reduced fairly substantially...I still think good CS cars in a PTS colour will get good money.
Also this GT3 could be the last manual NA GT3, imo it's safe to say it is bar RS models and maybe a run out mega thing.
The specialised car market is slightly finicky atm and probably a barometer of the economy as a whole.Factor in pretty downbeat economic forecasts made recently by the OECD,IMF and OBR regarding the UK's future economic growth and the market can only go one way.
The counter argument is if the UK economy tanks will it reflect in less flow of easily attained cash.If the UK suffers alone then cash will still be readily available from overseas sources underpinning credit to sustain non equity assets.
If however there is a repeat of the 2008 crisis and global credit dries up then there will be a lot of panic selling IMO which will negatively affect all UK asset values including but not exclusively halo cars..
The counter argument is if the UK economy tanks will it reflect in less flow of easily attained cash.If the UK suffers alone then cash will still be readily available from overseas sources underpinning credit to sustain non equity assets.
If however there is a repeat of the 2008 crisis and global credit dries up then there will be a lot of panic selling IMO which will negatively affect all UK asset values including but not exclusively halo cars..
There's plenty cash still circulating in the world, and it's still there for the best cars.
In the U.K, forecasts are for anaemic growth at best (and that's assuming a decent Brexit deal...).
LHD GT cars in Europe have never attracted same premiums as here, for various reasons and for many in U.K. it's been a way to make decent money for last few years, legally, tax free. Or on a bad day, cheap money to buy and you get it all back at the end.
IMO, there is no way that an economy that's drifting behind others, and is receiving an increased supply of these cars at the same time, is going to support hundreds/thousands of RHD premium going forward. No logic to it.
Selling opportunities, for those that want to, are on the way down, but not yet time to buy, IMO.
In the U.K, forecasts are for anaemic growth at best (and that's assuming a decent Brexit deal...).
LHD GT cars in Europe have never attracted same premiums as here, for various reasons and for many in U.K. it's been a way to make decent money for last few years, legally, tax free. Or on a bad day, cheap money to buy and you get it all back at the end.
IMO, there is no way that an economy that's drifting behind others, and is receiving an increased supply of these cars at the same time, is going to support hundreds/thousands of RHD premium going forward. No logic to it.
Selling opportunities, for those that want to, are on the way down, but not yet time to buy, IMO.
The market peaked 12-18 months and prices have been falling since. Look at 675lt. They commanded over six figure premiums 18 months ago and now can be had for decent amounts under list.
If it as people are saying that 991.2 gt3's are going for 20k over list to traders that says it all really. 18 months ago dealers paid circa 20k over list for gt4's!
If it as people are saying that 991.2 gt3's are going for 20k over list to traders that says it all really. 18 months ago dealers paid circa 20k over list for gt4's!
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