Your 2017 savings / investment / trading performance
Discussion
Jon39 said:
We have just 3 weeks remaining, so anything can still happen, but not long to wait now.
This is my 30th year of serious investment in equities, so being a round number, it would be great to beat the market once again.
After a strong middle period during 2017, it is now too close to guess the outcome. Dividends might even be the main component of any annual gain.
My 'cheat' of including dividend income within the fund, whereas it is not in the market index, could become relevant this year.
I will edit this post and replace the chart, when the end of year figures have been completed.
Being in favour of buy and hold, I do sometimes wonder what overall annual performance, short-term traders achieve.
I have never found out.
2017 RESULTS
| Equity Fund Overall Increase | ? % |
| FTSE All-Share Index | ? % |
| Overall dividend income increase | ? % |
rockin said:
That massive differential in summer is very fishy indeed.
A stake was gradually acquired during the 1980s and 90s, in a business which has now become a significant percentage. That is most of the reason for the summer peak.
The 'sell after a 10% rise' rule, does not seem such a good idea, when you find businesses that do continue to achieve steady growth.
Those of you who have read my previous 'ramblings' on this forum, will know that I never make any forecasts, because it is impossible to be accurate. Neither will I name holdings, because although I am happy to take the associated risk, I don't know what is going to happen, so it would be wrong to influence anyone else.
Jon39 said:
The post is just in readiness of hopefully, a few people telling their story of 2017 in January.
With regard to risk and return, sidicks.
The following chart shows reward.
With risk, I only know after the event, that the risk was too high.
Maybe I'm misunderstanding the point of the thread?
sidicks said:
But if you don't understand or measure the risk of your strategy or of the 'market', then any comparison is fairly meaningless. And there are plenty of different measures of risk that can be used.
How would you quantify FTSE100 "risk"?Sidicks said:
Maybe I'm misunderstanding the point of the thread?
MY understanding was that it's about how everybody's stock investments have performed, using the FTSE as a benchmark. I have no idea how mine have done as I don't remember what the opening balance was or what I bought or sold. I'm just mainly "in it" for the dividend income, I don't tend to monitor the capital changes that much (although Carillion was a kick in the sphericals!!!)
Countdown said:
How would you quantify FTSE100 "risk"?
Well, volatility / standard deviation would be one measure.Countdown said:
MY understanding was that it's about how everybody's stock investments have performed, using the FTSE as a benchmark.
I have no idea how mine have done as I don't remember what the opening balance was or what I bought or sold. I'm just mainly "in it" for the dividend income, I don't tend to monitor the capital changes that much (although Carillion was a kick in the sphericals!!!)
Without recognising that the FTSE100 might be a highly inappropriate benchmark for comparison etc!I have no idea how mine have done as I don't remember what the opening balance was or what I bought or sold. I'm just mainly "in it" for the dividend income, I don't tend to monitor the capital changes that much (although Carillion was a kick in the sphericals!!!)
Jon39 said:
The point is just for people to comment on their percentage increase result for 2017 only.
Whether it might have been savings accounts, commercially available funds, bonds, equities, day trading etc.
(The bit-coin people can join in if they want to, but they will probably beat us all anyway.)
So comparing to a FTSE100 benchmark is potentially meaningful. Regardless, why would you not compare to the FTSE100 (or FTSE All Share) Total Return Index, rather than the Price Index?Whether it might have been savings accounts, commercially available funds, bonds, equities, day trading etc.
(The bit-coin people can join in if they want to, but they will probably beat us all anyway.)
However, the fact that one share appears to be a significant proportion of the portfolio is an obvious reason why a diversified index benchmark is inappropriate.
Jon39 said:
Having out-performed many market professionals, I don't get too side tracked by detailed risk strategies. Once I have decided a business looks good for a long-term hold, that is it. My holding have not changed at all during 2017.
Suggesting you've outperformed 'many market professionals' if you haven't taken into account the respective risks that have been run is somewhat meaningless!Edited by sidicks on Saturday 9th December 19:46
Countdown said:
sidicks said:
Without recognising that the FTSE100 might be a highly inappropriate benchmark for comparison etc!
AIUI Jon39's invested in FTSE100 shares (I could be wrong). If that IS the case the why might it be highly inappropriate ?Jockman said:
I bet you've had another solid year, Jon, well done !!
According to the graph, he appears to have underperformed the (true) market by around 2.5% whilst having taken on much more risk. I think FTSE AllShare is actually up c. 8% YTD.But he wants to claim to have beaten the market 'again'
Hmmm...
Edited by sidicks on Saturday 9th December 17:52
Budflicker said:
Well Sidicks, it would appear that you are a know it all knob on finance as well as GT3's.
You do realise the difference between having an opinion (on cars) and being able to provide factual inout on a topic such as finance? I've never pretended to be a know all on GT3s (or every aspect of Finance).I've no doubt that if I said I was beating professional racing drivers based comparing my lap times in a totally different car in different weather conditions on an entirely different track, you might take issue with that claim?! Which is not so different from what the OP is actually doing!
Budflicker said:
Do you realise how abrasive you come across or is it genuinly that is how you are in person?
This is supposedly a 'Finance forum', with the implication that the content would contain some form of credible finance discussion - comparing price returns against total return, using irrelevant indices and ignoring risk doesn't seem to have much actual 'finance' about it.If it was a thread about a how a few named companies he'd picked at the start of the year had performed over the year (and why), then it might be quite an interesting read.
As it is, comparing the performance of an undisclosed portfolio against just a proportion of the return from a different index, ignoring the massively different risk profile is hardly relevant to 'Finance'. He's making some pretty bold claims about repeatedly 'outperforming market professionals' without seeming to understand why this claim is somewhat hollow!
Edited by sidicks on Saturday 9th December 18:18
sidicks said:
Countdown said:
sidicks said:
Without recognising that the FTSE100 might be a highly inappropriate benchmark for comparison etc!
AIUI Jon39's invested in FTSE100 shares (I could be wrong). If that IS the case the why might it be highly inappropriate ?Savings and Investing can be a complex subject, but as I mentioned earlier, my philosophy has always been to try to keep everything as simple as possible.
Worrying about should I use this index or that index, does not seem very important to me.
All we are trying to do, is use a sum of money, increase its value and / or provide income from interest or dividends.
1. - How can a FTSE index have any relevance to someone with a savings account?
I have a friend who for decades has kept his (substantial - well it was to begin with) savings, in building society savings accounts.
By comparing his returns with say the FTSE All-Share Index, it would have been made clear to him just how much money he had lost, and also that the biggest risk he is taking is against inflation. Had he compared with the appropriate building society index (if there is such a thing), all it would have misleadingly shown him, would be that he had done quite well.
2. - We only need an index, to tell us how we are doing, with our private portfolio. If we can keep up, or even better be ahead, then it tells us that we are holding good businesses. A good reassurance to spend less time on the subject.
For private purposes, I say it does not matter whether the 100 or All-Share is used. Pick one of them and stick to it.
My performance monitoring is done by calendar year. On that basis it might be a surprise to know, that there is not much difference in the performance between these two indices. Certainly not enough to matter to private investors. The FTSE All-Share does of course include the FTSE 100 companies anyway. I have records going way back, but here are the last few years figures.
If a private investor can even keep close to, or even ahead of either of these two indices, then their portfolio is performing well..
INDICES - RECENT ANNUAL PERFORMANCE
| Year | FTSE100 | FTSE All-Share |
|---|---|---|
| 2016 | +14.43% | +12.45% |
| 2015 | - 4.93% | - 2.50% |
| 2014 | - 2.71% | - 2.13% |
| 2013 | +14.43% | +16.69% |
| 2012 | + 5.84% | + 8.24% |
| 2011 | - 5.55% | - 6.69% |
| 2010 | +- 9.00% | +10.94% |
Whichever index a privare investor choses to use as their benchmark, it makes little difference.
The aspect of neither including dividends does arise, but it then becomes rather too complex to monitor throughout each individual calendar year.
Edited by Jon39 on Saturday 9th December 18:59
Jon39 said:
Savings and Investing can be a complex subject, but as I mentioned earlier, my philosophy has always been to try to keep everything as simple as possible.
Jon39 said:
Worrying about should I use this index or that index, does not seem very important to me.
It's only important if you want to make a relevant comparison...Jon39 said:
All we are trying to do, is use a sum of money, increase its value and / or provide income from interest or dividends.
1. - How can a FTSE index have any relevance to someone with a savings account?
I have a friend who for decades has kept his (substantial - well it was to begin with) savings, in building society savings accounts.
By comparing his returns with say the FTSE All-Share Index, it would have been made clear to him just how much money he had lost, and also that the biggest risk he is taking is against inflation. Had he compared with the appropriate building society index (if there is such a thing), all it would have misleadingly shown him, would be that he had done quite well.
Providing you totally ignore any form of risk.1. - How can a FTSE index have any relevance to someone with a savings account?
I have a friend who for decades has kept his (substantial - well it was to begin with) savings, in building society savings accounts.
By comparing his returns with say the FTSE All-Share Index, it would have been made clear to him just how much money he had lost, and also that the biggest risk he is taking is against inflation. Had he compared with the appropriate building society index (if there is such a thing), all it would have misleadingly shown him, would be that he had done quite well.
Jon39 said:
2. - We only need an index, to tell us how we are doing, with our private portfolio. If we can keep up, or even better be ahead, then it tells us that we are holding good businesses. A good reassurance to spend less time on the subject.
Not necessarily, as you are ignoring risk and volatility.Jon39 said:
For private purposes, I say it does not matter whether the 100 or All-Share is used. Pick one of them and stick to it.
They certainly some different characteristics.Jon39 said:
My performance monitoring is done by calendar year. On that basis it might be a surprise to know, that there is not much difference in the performance between these two indices. Certainly not enough to matter to private investors. The FTSE All-Share does of course include the FTSE 100 companies anyway. I have records going way back, but here are the last few years figures. Even if you can beat the worst of the two each year you are doing very well.
Yes, if you can beat the total return version of either of the above, after adjusting for risk, you are doing very well. However, as I understand it, that appears to be a long way from what you are actually doing!Edited by sidicks on Saturday 9th December 18:02
I am quite happy to discuss with you Mr Sidicks, but talking about tiny details can become tedious.
Let's just try the big picture.
Start investing in equities, keep at it patiently, then find you have no need to work anymore at age 53.
You still have not told us about your own investment skills.
Jon39 said:
I am quite happy to discuss with you Mr Sidicks, but talking about tiny details can become tedious.
'Tiny details' like taking into account of dividends or risk?
Jon39 said:
Let's just try the big picture.
Start investing in equities, keep at it patiently, then find you have no need to work anymore at age 53.
You still have not told us about your own investment skills.
My personal investment 'portfolio' is up around 26% this year (on a Total Return basis), but I just pick funds and pay other people to manage this for me. It's also much higher risk than a core FTSE All Share portfolio so it wouldn't be appropriate to compare it against that.Start investing in equities, keep at it patiently, then find you have no need to work anymore at age 53.
You still have not told us about your own investment skills.
The bulk of my savings are in my company incentive plan scheme - these are up 20%+ in the last 12 months, but again such a concentrated portfolio cannot credibly be compared to a diversified market index.
Jon39 said:
Whichever index a privare investor choses to use as their benchmark, it makes little difference.
You mean whether you use FTSE100 or AllShare? Yes, that is certainly the least of the issues with your comparisons.Jon39 said:
The aspect of neither including dividends does arise, but it then becomes rather too complex to monitor throughout each individual calendar year.
As a starter, the FTSE All Share Total Return Index is readily accessible.http://www.ftse.com/analytics/factsheets/Home/Hist...
Edited by sidicks on Saturday 9th December 19:37
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