Electric+driverless cars, and effect on the price bubble
Discussion
People talk about their cars as investments and try forecast prices in 10, 15 or 20 years time, but for me the bubble will shatter long before this, forever, in these steps:
1) Electric cars will become more popular than IC cars
2) Driverless technology will improve to the point where it is useable for daily driving. In addition to this, transponders on the roads will regulate your speed (so-called "managed motorways" are a pre-cursor to this, but it will be done by direct comms to the cars' ECUs).
3) The Greenies will push for the polluting IC engine to be banned. For sure it will become uncool and socially unacceptable to drive IC powered cars. Unfortunately governments jump on this bandwagon too readily - not to do any real good, but rather to gather more taxation and to augment their popularity for acting on allegedly important issues.
When this happens, or some years before, prices will plummet. At the current rate of progress, I would say step 2 will happen inside 10 years.
Any thoughts? I hope I'm wrong....
1) Electric cars will become more popular than IC cars
2) Driverless technology will improve to the point where it is useable for daily driving. In addition to this, transponders on the roads will regulate your speed (so-called "managed motorways" are a pre-cursor to this, but it will be done by direct comms to the cars' ECUs).
3) The Greenies will push for the polluting IC engine to be banned. For sure it will become uncool and socially unacceptable to drive IC powered cars. Unfortunately governments jump on this bandwagon too readily - not to do any real good, but rather to gather more taxation and to augment their popularity for acting on allegedly important issues.
When this happens, or some years before, prices will plummet. At the current rate of progress, I would say step 2 will happen inside 10 years.
Any thoughts? I hope I'm wrong....
Nano2nd said:
my thoughts are don't post this in the Supercar section, this belongs in GG.
I disagree, Supercar Gassers talk a lot about their car values, and they talk as if the future of the modern day IC engined supercar is infinite. I am pointing out there is a very obvious (to me anyway) end looming.its just getting old... every five minutes theres a new thread banging on about "the bubble"!
in fact, here's some existing threads you could contribute to if you want to discuss it...
https://www.pistonheads.com/gassing/topic.asp?t=17...
https://www.pistonheads.com/gassing/topic.asp?t=17...
https://www.pistonheads.com/gassing/topic.asp?t=17...
in fact, here's some existing threads you could contribute to if you want to discuss it...
https://www.pistonheads.com/gassing/topic.asp?t=17...
https://www.pistonheads.com/gassing/topic.asp?t=17...
https://www.pistonheads.com/gassing/topic.asp?t=17...
dang2407 said:
I disagree, Supercar Gassers talk a lot about their car values, and they talk as if the future of the modern day IC engined supercar is infinite. I am pointing out there is a very obvious (to me anyway) end looming.
I think you are wrong. Very wrong. Supercar and the collector car markets have never been based on the practicality of cars as transport. Your argument is the same as claiming that the value of the Mona Lisa is about to plummet because flat-screen TV's are getting cheaper.
The Mona Lisa is more than just a 'picture of some bird with no eyebrows', a 250 GTO is also more than just transport.
The Surveyor said:
dang2407 said:
I disagree, Supercar Gassers talk a lot about their car values, and they talk as if the future of the modern day IC engined supercar is infinite. I am pointing out there is a very obvious (to me anyway) end looming.
I think you are wrong. Very wrong. Supercar and the collector car markets have never been based on the practicality of cars as transport. Your argument is the same as claiming that the value of the Mona Lisa is about to plummet because flat-screen TV's are getting cheaper.
The Mona Lisa is more than just a 'picture of some bird with no eyebrows', a 250 GTO is also more than just transport.
I don't think point two will happen within 10 years, far from it.
If anything fully autonomous cars are further away than people are stating, just because the tech will exist doesn't mean it will be accepted immediately by all.
The government are woefully slow when it comes to legislating for new technology especially when you consider what is likely to be the biggest change in private transport in the history of motorcars, they have more than enough on their plate in the next 10 years to be considering your suggestion.
The Surveyor said:
I think you are wrong. Very wrong.
Supercar and the collector car markets have never been based on the practicality of cars as transport. Your argument is the same as claiming that the value of the Mona Lisa is about to plummet because flat-screen TV's are getting cheaper.
The Mona Lisa is more than just a 'picture of some bird with no eyebrows', a 250 GTO is also more than just transport.
I hope I am wrong, but the point I was make is that legislature will force the cars off the road and hence prices will dropSupercar and the collector car markets have never been based on the practicality of cars as transport. Your argument is the same as claiming that the value of the Mona Lisa is about to plummet because flat-screen TV's are getting cheaper.
The Mona Lisa is more than just a 'picture of some bird with no eyebrows', a 250 GTO is also more than just transport.
This-isnt-real said:
Do we REALLY need another values thread.
Sod off to the business section for investment advice
PH or other forums do not need your type of a-hole comments. I was making a valid point. If you don't like it, move on to the next thread. Who are you to tell me what to do?Sod off to the business section for investment advice
Good, as I said I hope I'm wrong!! I love my petrol engined cars and what scares me more than losing money on them, is that one day I may not be allowed to drive them.
I recall lots of value threads, but none that consider the effect of electric cars and do-gooder legislature ending the IC engine once and for all. Everyone just assumes life will go on as it has done before. It's not about bubbles but rather about what's going to end them.
I thought it was a topic worth discussing but evidently not. Let's come back in 2028 and see who was right...
I recall lots of value threads, but none that consider the effect of electric cars and do-gooder legislature ending the IC engine once and for all. Everyone just assumes life will go on as it has done before. It's not about bubbles but rather about what's going to end them.
I thought it was a topic worth discussing but evidently not. Let's come back in 2028 and see who was right...
Governments aren't going to introduce legislation that retrospectively impacts cars manufactured years before. OK, tax might increase but not much more than that. The production runs of individual supercar models are low but collectively they numbers are much larger - they'd be uproar if suddenly you couldn't own or drive one!
If anything the naturally aspirated car will become more rarer as time goes on as production phases out.
If anything the naturally aspirated car will become more rarer as time goes on as production phases out.
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