Impact of WLTP on car sales/leasing - availability
Discussion
So 'm just trying to get a handle on how this affects availability/supply of cars how that will impact on deals/prices.
In summary (for those wondering what it is), WLTP is the regulatory change as to how vehicles details such as Fuel Economy and Emissions are a) caluclated and b) registered and advertised as such... rather than previous/current ones such as NEDC. It's supposed to be more realistic driving rather than best case lab tests. I think the impact, generally speaking is that the new tests shows 20% increase in emissions and 20% worse fuel economy compared to previous tests.
The test takes around twice as long and they also have to do it it potentially for each trim and other options such as affect of larger wheels or adding roof rails, or both.
That's my understanding of it, now on the impact. I may not have got the above 100% correct but it was just a bref intro. This post is more about the impact on the supply side of the market.
So, this is kicking cars out of the factory a bit later, where it could be causing a delay or they're holding off registering cars (after 1st Sept) because the test outputs/paperwork is incomplete.
How is/will this affect supply of cars? Are dealerships eager to get cars registered before 1st Sept? For models where WLTP emmissions/fue economy hasn't been finalised, is there likely t be squeeze on supply and affect pricing?
In summary (for those wondering what it is), WLTP is the regulatory change as to how vehicles details such as Fuel Economy and Emissions are a) caluclated and b) registered and advertised as such... rather than previous/current ones such as NEDC. It's supposed to be more realistic driving rather than best case lab tests. I think the impact, generally speaking is that the new tests shows 20% increase in emissions and 20% worse fuel economy compared to previous tests.
The test takes around twice as long and they also have to do it it potentially for each trim and other options such as affect of larger wheels or adding roof rails, or both.
That's my understanding of it, now on the impact. I may not have got the above 100% correct but it was just a bref intro. This post is more about the impact on the supply side of the market.
So, this is kicking cars out of the factory a bit later, where it could be causing a delay or they're holding off registering cars (after 1st Sept) because the test outputs/paperwork is incomplete.
How is/will this affect supply of cars? Are dealerships eager to get cars registered before 1st Sept? For models where WLTP emmissions/fue economy hasn't been finalised, is there likely t be squeeze on supply and affect pricing?
HorneyMX5 said:
Impact I've seen is that my wife was told earlier this year she is entitled to a company car. She's not yet been able to place an order for one because all this stuff means BIK can't be calculated. Assume this affects most other people currently looking at taking a company car.
Sounds like a shambles. Not sure who to blame, car industry or regulatory bodies.The proposed changes have been kicking around for about 10 years but it' the VW Dieselgate that really gave it impetus.
Ordered a VW Polo GTi at the beginning of March. Even with them knowing (and vaguely telling me) about WLTP, they said an estimated delivery of July or August.
Now been told, "probably not even this year, probably beginning of 2019"
They say they will honour the part exchange price of my car at the time of order (well, duh, its a contract!) but my only other option is to cancel the order. But as so many other manufacturers are in the same boat, I would go to the back of the queue elsewhere.
What a joke this situation is.
Now been told, "probably not even this year, probably beginning of 2019"
They say they will honour the part exchange price of my car at the time of order (well, duh, its a contract!) but my only other option is to cancel the order. But as so many other manufacturers are in the same boat, I would go to the back of the queue elsewhere.
What a joke this situation is.
Sholing said:
Ordered a VW Polo GTi at the beginning of March. Even with them knowing (and vaguely telling me) about WLTP, they said an estimated delivery of July or August.
Now been told, "probably not even this year, probably beginning of 2019"
They say they will honour the part exchange price of my car at the time of order (well, duh, its a contract!) but my only other option is to cancel the order. But as so many other manufacturers are in the same boat, I would go to the back of the queue elsewhere.
What a joke this situation is.
How old is the car you’re p/x ing?Now been told, "probably not even this year, probably beginning of 2019"
They say they will honour the part exchange price of my car at the time of order (well, duh, its a contract!) but my only other option is to cancel the order. But as so many other manufacturers are in the same boat, I would go to the back of the queue elsewhere.
What a joke this situation is.
This whole fiasco could work well for sellers on the 2nd hand market if it’s relatively new car.
Consider keeping hold of it until nearer delivery date.
I would suspect production is still going at near enough the same rate and cars are being delivered. This whole WLTP thing is holding up the registration of the vehicles. Once that’s sorted then it should kickstart a flurry of activity.
All conjecture of course
We visited the local Skoda dealer who supplied my Fabia to enquire about an Octavia for my partner the other day. We were basically told that were we to order a car they'd have no clue when the car would arrive or if we'd even be able to get our chosen spec as there were none in stock or due in for a considerable length of time (1.0 TSI SE Tech DSG). Apparently this is the case at least across the VAG group and I can believe it as my Mam is looking at April (best case scenario is late February) next year delivery for the new Polo R Line she ordered in March.
It's a very real issue. Every certified test bed in the world is fully booked from here to eternity. Manufacturers are literally fighting for space to test cars. At MIRA one team roll off the Dyno and another manufacturer is waiting outside the door to get on. Try ordering a new Porsche, unless it's built or recently homologated, Panamera for example, they will not quote a delivery date, the only 911 available for build at the mo is a GTS everything else is on hold. Lots of rationalization of ranges and specifications going on to reduce the number of tests, M3 anyone.
VAG appear to be the worst affected (most to loose?) but it's industry wide. Brand new stuff is ok as its homologated to the new regs, it's all the existing stuff that has to be retested. The drop in new car sales may well be driven by this rather than demand.
Second hand values will / have risen as a result as dealers buy up stock so they have something to sell.
VAG appear to be the worst affected (most to loose?) but it's industry wide. Brand new stuff is ok as its homologated to the new regs, it's all the existing stuff that has to be retested. The drop in new car sales may well be driven by this rather than demand.
Second hand values will / have risen as a result as dealers buy up stock so they have something to sell.
hewy123 said:
Am I right in thinking there are non-WLTP compliant cars that HAVE to be sold by Sept 1st.
Hoping to find a good deal for my Mrs next car.
Manufacturers can get a waiver on anything built before 1st June (with some limits) but I've no how easy that is. Hoping to find a good deal for my Mrs next car.
Anything built from 1st June has to be registered by end Aug if it isn't WLTP compliant. Of course manufacturers and dealers can register cars - they don't necessarily have to be sold.
What seems odd to me is you'd think manufacturers would have picked a few obvious choices of spec and got those approved, and be churning them out and stuffing them into dealers. Maybe they have, but they're keeping it quiet?
loofer said:
How old is the car you’re p/x ing?
This whole fiasco could work well for sellers on the 2nd hand market if it’s relatively new car.
Consider keeping hold of it until nearer delivery date.
I would suspect production is still going at near enough the same rate and cars are being delivered. This whole WLTP thing is holding up the registration of the vehicles. Once that’s sorted then it should kickstart a flurry of activity.
All conjecture of course
5 years old.This whole fiasco could work well for sellers on the 2nd hand market if it’s relatively new car.
Consider keeping hold of it until nearer delivery date.
I would suspect production is still going at near enough the same rate and cars are being delivered. This whole WLTP thing is holding up the registration of the vehicles. Once that’s sorted then it should kickstart a flurry of activity.
All conjecture of course
I have seen via Instagram photos of new Polo GTi's in Europe and a handful in the UK, so some are getting through. I asked one owner when he ordered his, but he said he managed to intercept one bound as a dealers show car.
It really is nonsense to have 9 month to a year wait for a production line car. I could probably get a new Rolls Royce quicker.
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