Time to come out of the US markets yet?
Discussion
Funny, just posted in other thread. DeMark Combo indicator suggests a reversal of bull run / over extension. Coming in next 12 days. It correctly indicated in Jan (when SPX dropped 12%). I have the willies, so this technical indication is positive affirmation.
It feels over valued. Despite potentially positive new from Mexico on NAFTA; the Fed's talking up rates and China trade war fears won't go away.
It feels over valued. Despite potentially positive new from Mexico on NAFTA; the Fed's talking up rates and China trade war fears won't go away.
US markets or US tech markets specifically ? And go where?
Reckon but not worked it out for a long time, i am 80/20 in global technology and energy. I figure one needs the other and the world needs both. I also see technology firms changing the world in ways we probably don't even realise yet. Long term view.
Reckon but not worked it out for a long time, i am 80/20 in global technology and energy. I figure one needs the other and the world needs both. I also see technology firms changing the world in ways we probably don't even realise yet. Long term view.
Also consider that the tech world is moving swiftly (Has been for a long time actually, but more so in the last 24 months) to a service-based economy. SaaS companies are doing better than ever and normally don't suffer the boom/bust of a traditional tech stock that relies on feast/famine quarterly performance.
Much like we are all now renting (Leasing) our cars, huge companies are now finally doing the same with software. Salesforce is the ultimate success story here and is not seeing this reduce any time soon. Their main issue is market saturation, but as long as they keep their costs in check, they will print money forever.
Likewise Facebook. Even in a global economic slowdown, you'll still use social media and ads will still be targeted at you. Daily active user counts won't change or be impacted if you lose your job... in fact, they may go up as you're sat on your arse all day! The only thing that will stop Facebook is themselves if they mess it up
Don't be afraid of tech stocks specifically, but be very picky and do a lot of research.
Much like we are all now renting (Leasing) our cars, huge companies are now finally doing the same with software. Salesforce is the ultimate success story here and is not seeing this reduce any time soon. Their main issue is market saturation, but as long as they keep their costs in check, they will print money forever.
Likewise Facebook. Even in a global economic slowdown, you'll still use social media and ads will still be targeted at you. Daily active user counts won't change or be impacted if you lose your job... in fact, they may go up as you're sat on your arse all day! The only thing that will stop Facebook is themselves if they mess it up
Don't be afraid of tech stocks specifically, but be very picky and do a lot of research.
I’ve moved my retirement fund to cash, as of a couple of weeks ago.
Same as the OP, I got the willies - there’s too much uncertainty out there pointing to a correction; yield curves, interest rates, trade wars and Brexit.
I’ll sit out for a few months, and see how the land lies.
It may well cost me some missed opportunity, but I can afford that, but my early retirement plans can’t afford a big slump.
I continue to drip monthly chunks into VLS100 and Fundsmith, but that pot is a small fraction of my retirement fund.
Same as the OP, I got the willies - there’s too much uncertainty out there pointing to a correction; yield curves, interest rates, trade wars and Brexit.
I’ll sit out for a few months, and see how the land lies.
It may well cost me some missed opportunity, but I can afford that, but my early retirement plans can’t afford a big slump.
I continue to drip monthly chunks into VLS100 and Fundsmith, but that pot is a small fraction of my retirement fund.
Testaburger said:
I’ve moved my retirement fund to cash, as of a couple of weeks ago.
Same as the OP, I got the willies - there’s too much uncertainty out there pointing to a correction; yield curves, interest rates, trade wars and Brexit.
I’ll sit out for a few months, and see how the land lies.
It may well cost me some missed opportunity, but I can afford that, but my early retirement plans can’t afford a big slump.
I continue to drip monthly chunks into VLS100 and Fundsmith, but that pot is a small fraction of my retirement fund.
If I was looking to retire in the next few years I'd tend to take a similar view. The chance of a correction, of say 30%, in the next few years I'd say is pretty good. Same as the OP, I got the willies - there’s too much uncertainty out there pointing to a correction; yield curves, interest rates, trade wars and Brexit.
I’ll sit out for a few months, and see how the land lies.
It may well cost me some missed opportunity, but I can afford that, but my early retirement plans can’t afford a big slump.
I continue to drip monthly chunks into VLS100 and Fundsmith, but that pot is a small fraction of my retirement fund.
GT03ROB said:
If I was looking to retire in the next few years I'd tend to take a similar view. The chance of a correction, of say 30%, in the next few years I'd say is pretty good.
Therein lies the problem....timing. If one was really concerned about this even 10-15 years from retirement, why wouldn’t you move some to cash, in order to have funds to buy in back around the bottom?I’ve been too nervous to move to cash thus far (perhaps <2 years from retirement), & so far the decision has been very sound....but the risk is there........maybe I will waver and move some % out of the market in the next few months.
mikeiow said:
GT03ROB said:
If I was looking to retire in the next few years I'd tend to take a similar view. The chance of a correction, of say 30%, in the next few years I'd say is pretty good.
Therein lies the problem....timing. If one was really concerned about this even 10-15 years from retirement, why wouldn’t you move some to cash, in order to have funds to buy in back around the bottom?I’ve been too nervous to move to cash thus far (perhaps <2 years from retirement), & so far the decision has been very sound....but the risk is there........maybe I will waver and move some % out of the market in the next few months.
Thinking about it further though I guess it also depends what your intentions are on retirement. If it's to buy an annuity I think there is an answer, if you intend to stay invested & draw down the answer may be different. With the first I'd be looking to lock in gains, the 2ns I can take more risk on longer term recoveries.
Derek Chevalier said:
Why on earth do you feel anyone can time the market?
It’s not about timing the market. It’s about cashing in when plenty of signals and indicators are pointing to a turn. It’s eminently sensible in the right circumstances.
My personal retirement planning is predicated on averaging a 7% return each year. Given that I’ve achieved multiples of that for the last couple of years, I’m happy to sit on cash. My plan is still on track, even if I remain in cash for a couple of years.
While the market is volatile, and signals are signalling what they are; why risk being caught up in a slump?
Testaburger said:
Derek Chevalier said:
Why on earth do you feel anyone can time the market?
It’s not about timing the market. It’s about cashing in when plenty of signals and indicators are pointing to a turn. It’s eminently sensible in the right circumstances.
My personal retirement planning is predicated on averaging a 7% return each year. Given that I’ve achieved multiples of that for the last couple of years, I’m happy to sit on cash. My plan is still on track, even if I remain in cash for a couple of years.
While the market is volatile, and signals are signalling what they are; why risk being caught up in a slump?
Derek Chevalier said:
I can't see how what you are describing is anything other than timing the market, and I've no idea what signals and indicators are that would have any predictive ability of where the market is headed (I don't think anyone does, do they?)
You’re right, it is timing the market, with a long-ish lens, based on fundamentals rather than technical gibberish. As for indicators, we can only go off history and assumption - whether that’s history of yield-curves, highs, lows, geopolitical factors, oil prices etc; and assumptions based on how we feel trade wars, Brexit, regional instability, interest rates, QE wind-down, mid-term elections and such will pan out.
All will have an effect on the markets to a degree - and many, including myself, think it will mostly apply downward pressure.
Volatility is here, and I personally don’t see much in the pipeline to calm it. So, I’m going to sit it out for a while. As I mentioned previously, it may cost me a little in missed opportunity - but I’m happy to be safeguarding against a volatile backdrop and fallout from the current financial and political landscape.
I’m not a believer in timing the market as an investing principle for a total layman such as myself, strangely. However, it would be foolhardy for me to stay in against all instincts, when I believe that the markets will be tumultuous for an extended period when I have a retirement fund to protect.
Caveat: now that I’ve moved to cash, statistically you ought to move to 100% equities.
Testaburger said:
Derek Chevalier said:
I can't see how what you are describing is anything other than timing the market, and I've no idea what signals and indicators are that would have any predictive ability of where the market is headed (I don't think anyone does, do they?)
You’re right, it is timing the market, with a long-ish lens, based on fundamentals rather than technical gibberish. As for indicators, we can only go off history and assumption - whether that’s history of yield-curves, highs, lows, geopolitical factors, oil prices etc; and assumptions based on how we feel trade wars, Brexit, regional instability, interest rates, QE wind-down, mid-term elections and such will pan out.
All will have an effect on the markets to a degree - and many, including myself, think it will mostly apply downward pressure.
Volatility is here, and I personally don’t see much in the pipeline to calm it. So, I’m going to sit it out for a while. As I mentioned previously, it may cost me a little in missed opportunity - but I’m happy to be safeguarding against a volatile backdrop and fallout from the current financial and political landscape.
I’m not a believer in timing the market as an investing principle for a total layman such as myself, strangely. However, it would be foolhardy for me to stay in against all instincts, when I believe that the markets will be tumultuous for an extended period when I have a retirement fund to protect.
Caveat: now that I’ve moved to cash, statistically you ought to move to 100% equities.
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