REITs. Also Neil Woodford
Discussion
Two topics here as I’m being a little indecisive.
My ISA currently contains LT, FS, LS60 and Woodford, all accumulation. What do we think about Woodford, is he worth sticking with on the basis that his luck/judgement will turn or are his days over?
Secondly which REITs are my best bet if I go down that route instead of putting more cash into the above funds as I like the idea of diversifying into property a little. I’m looking for good solid gains without too much risk, say 5/10.
My ISA currently contains LT, FS, LS60 and Woodford, all accumulation. What do we think about Woodford, is he worth sticking with on the basis that his luck/judgement will turn or are his days over?
Secondly which REITs are my best bet if I go down that route instead of putting more cash into the above funds as I like the idea of diversifying into property a little. I’m looking for good solid gains without too much risk, say 5/10.
Unexpected Item In The Bagging Area said:
Two topics here as I’m being a little indecisive.
My ISA currently contains LT, FS, LS60 and Woodford, all accumulation. What do we think about Woodford, is he worth sticking with on the basis that his luck/judgement will turn or are his days over?
Secondly which REITs are my best bet if I go down that route instead of putting more cash into the above funds as I like the idea of diversifying into property a little. I’m looking for good solid gains without too much risk, say 5/10.
Regarding Woodford, or any other star manager, if you dig down into how they get their returns, it's very, very little to do with skill, luck, judgement etc., and overwhelmingly down to which factors they have chosen to take exposure to. Blogcast related to topicMy ISA currently contains LT, FS, LS60 and Woodford, all accumulation. What do we think about Woodford, is he worth sticking with on the basis that his luck/judgement will turn or are his days over?
Secondly which REITs are my best bet if I go down that route instead of putting more cash into the above funds as I like the idea of diversifying into property a little. I’m looking for good solid gains without too much risk, say 5/10.
https://www.aqr.com/Insights/Podcasts/The-Curious-...
So you need to ask yourself (assuming Woodford hasn't had "factor drift"), will the factors that he used to rely on make a reappearance (I'm assuming value was high up there)?
Not sure why you consider REITs that much of a diversification - look at how they performed in the downturn.
Derek Chevalier said:
Regarding Woodford, or any other star manager, if you dig down into how they get their returns, it's very, very little to do with skill, luck, judgement etc., and overwhelmingly down to which factors they have chosen to take exposure to.
Isn't that the definition of judgement? Badda said:
Derek Chevalier said:
Regarding Woodford, or any other star manager, if you dig down into how they get their returns, it's very, very little to do with skill, luck, judgement etc., and overwhelmingly down to which factors they have chosen to take exposure to.
Isn't that the definition of judgement? Maybe Derek (who usually has a very sensible voice - and is obviously well informed) should be given the opportunity to re-word his response.
This is, after all, uncharacteristic.
Derek Chevalier said:
Regarding Woodford, or any other star manager, if you dig down into how they get their returns, it's very, very little to do with skill, luck, judgement etc., and overwhelmingly down to which factors they have chosen to take exposure to. So you need to ask yourself (assuming Woodford hasn't had "factor drift"), will the factors that he used to rely on make a reappearance (I'm assuming value was high up there)?
I see that Merkel got a tighter grip on the Brexit reins yesterday, and the pound jumped 1% or so. A rallying pound usually dampens the FTSE which relies, largely, on overseas markets for much of the earnings of its constituents. I had a quick look. Amid a FTSE sell off yesterday, he came off lightly, partly because he’s quite heavy on stuff like domestic home builders. Luck, judgement or swings and roundabouts? My gut instinct tells me that when there is a decision, he’ll outperform peers for a bit. If it’s because he took a particular view months ago, that’s judgement. Badda said:
Derek Chevalier said:
Regarding Woodford, or any other star manager, if you dig down into how they get their returns, it's very, very little to do with skill, luck, judgement etc., and overwhelmingly down to which factors they have chosen to take exposure to.
Isn't that the definition of judgement? http://eastwestfunds.com/research/value-vs-growth-...
The more important question may be, why do individuals attempt to pick hot/outperforming funds?
https://www.innovativewealth.com/wall-street-wisdo...
I am not a fund picker, but I do keep an eye on what’s going on. I think that the next 8 months or do will be defining for many managers who are already jockeying for post-Brexit position. The only thing I’d add is that although all fund managers have a shelf life, quality is permanent, form is temporary. God knows there’s some dross out there, riding on the coat-tails of a (still) bull market. When the tide goes out, let’s see who’s bluffing.
Unexpected Item In The Bagging Area said:
Hmm... well, I think I’ll leave my dosh with Woodford for now and see what happens. Any further thoughts on REITs?
I guess like every sector there are REITs and REITs. I'd be worried about those with significant exposure to the high street or london offices but have owned Tritax Big Box Reit and F&C Commercial Property Trust since two days after the brexit vote - they were my two punts based on the market over-reacting and both have done OK. F&C is at a modest premium to NAV (about 3.5%) and yields about 4%. BBOX is at about a 2% premium and a very slightly higher yield (about 4.2%)I see them both in different ways as a good diversification play. Both have long term secure cash flows and generally good tenants.
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