Do I know better than the investment professionals?
Discussion
Bear with me on this one. Phooey light bulb moment 
I've been investing £XXX/month into my ISA by a simple Direct-Debit on the first of each month. Simples. I'm very familiar with the saying "Time in the market, not timing the market", but lately I've been thinking of cancelling my DD and waiting for opportunities like today where the FTSE is at it's lowest for the last 5 months. I appreciate the FTSE is just one market, and my portfolio is diversified etc etc, but would I be breaking the golden rule of NOT trying to time the market by chucking a chunk into my (diversified) ISA, or even in a FTSE fund today rather than dripping it in monthly whilst it's at it's lowest in this current ISA subscription year? I feel like i'm missing a (potential) buying opportunity?
I've been investing £XXX/month into my ISA by a simple Direct-Debit on the first of each month. Simples. I'm very familiar with the saying "Time in the market, not timing the market", but lately I've been thinking of cancelling my DD and waiting for opportunities like today where the FTSE is at it's lowest for the last 5 months. I appreciate the FTSE is just one market, and my portfolio is diversified etc etc, but would I be breaking the golden rule of NOT trying to time the market by chucking a chunk into my (diversified) ISA, or even in a FTSE fund today rather than dripping it in monthly whilst it's at it's lowest in this current ISA subscription year? I feel like i'm missing a (potential) buying opportunity?
Phooey said:
Bear with me on this one. Phooey light bulb moment
I've been investing £XXX/month into my ISA by a simple Direct-Debit on the first of each month. Simples. I'm very familiar with the saying "Time in the market, not timing the market", but lately I've been thinking of cancelling my DD and waiting for opportunities like today where the FTSE is at it's lowest for the last 5 months. I appreciate the FTSE is just one market, and my portfolio is diversified etc etc, but would I be breaking the golden rule of NOT trying to time the market by chucking a chunk into my (diversified) ISA, or even in a FTSE fund today rather than dripping it in monthly whilst it's at it's lowest in this current ISA subscription year? I feel like i'm missing a (potential) buying opportunity?
You'll end up chasing the market - I've been investing £XXX/month into my ISA by a simple Direct-Debit on the first of each month. Simples. I'm very familiar with the saying "Time in the market, not timing the market", but lately I've been thinking of cancelling my DD and waiting for opportunities like today where the FTSE is at it's lowest for the last 5 months. I appreciate the FTSE is just one market, and my portfolio is diversified etc etc, but would I be breaking the golden rule of NOT trying to time the market by chucking a chunk into my (diversified) ISA, or even in a FTSE fund today rather than dripping it in monthly whilst it's at it's lowest in this current ISA subscription year? I feel like i'm missing a (potential) buying opportunity?
'Ohhh look, FTSE (all share, 100, 200 etc?) is at its lowest for 5 months, I should invest today'
'Hang on, maybe it'll be even lower tomorrow? Maybe I should wait?'
'Damn its higher, I should have invested yesterday! I'll wait to see if it drops again'
ad infinitum
b
hstewie said:
hstewie said: Do you hold IT's, individual Stocks, or Funds?
If it's funds remember an order placed today won't be dealt until first thing next week.
Funds, I think.If it's funds remember an order placed today won't be dealt until first thing next week.
I'm aware there is a delay between investing money and buying funds, but I *think* I'm right in thinking in my Wrap - Standard Life will purchase funds before they have taken my money? Also, I thought about holding a certain amount of cash within my portfolio that can instantly be used to buy.
Phooey said:
Funds, I think.
I'm aware there is a delay between investing money and buying funds, but I *think* I'm right in thinking in my Wrap - Standard Life will purchase funds before they have taken my money? Also, I thought about holding a certain amount of cash within my portfolio that can instantly be used to buy.
Usually yes, with my platform the moment I make a deposit I can use it to buy.I'm aware there is a delay between investing money and buying funds, but I *think* I'm right in thinking in my Wrap - Standard Life will purchase funds before they have taken my money? Also, I thought about holding a certain amount of cash within my portfolio that can instantly be used to buy.
My point was with funds there's a delay from when you hit "Buy" to when it actually get bought.
So (extreme example) let's say today it's showing 5% down and you think "Great" and hit buy, if on Monday at the dealing time for that fund it's 15% up you've paid the "up" price and not the "down" price.
Quite a few years ago in the year 2001, I thought something similar.
I had noticed a pattern in BA shares which tended at the time to bounce between £3.00 and £4.00 per share. So clever old me bought around £2,000 at £3.00 each and I managed to sell them a few weeks at close to £4.00. I gave myself a pat on the back and was excited to do it again.
The next time I think I bought in at around £3.30, and then September 11 happened....
First the share price dropped to £2.50 so I decided to spend another £2k to help reduce my average buy price. Then the price dropped to £1.90 so I felt compelled to buy another few thousand pounds worth using the same logic. Then the price dropped to around £1.00 per share so I had to buy even more....
Before I knew it, I had far more BA shares than I had ever wanted to own, and I had committed far more of my savings to my 'project' than I could afford to lose.
I'm not exaggerating to say the experience made me feel sick. The problem was I was being greedy, and I wasn't doing something which added any value. The experience made me realise that trading shares over a short time-frame was basically gambling, and I didn't enjoy gambling.
Now, I know you are not planning to do something stupid like I did, and you already have a diversified portfolio, which is great. The reason for mentioning this story was I thought there thinking there was a similarity in the initial thought process.
Now my approach is that I don't look, and I don't try and time anything. Anything which is going into shares is staying in for decades anyway. So for me, gradual and steady is perfectly fine. Just my tuppence worth.
I had noticed a pattern in BA shares which tended at the time to bounce between £3.00 and £4.00 per share. So clever old me bought around £2,000 at £3.00 each and I managed to sell them a few weeks at close to £4.00. I gave myself a pat on the back and was excited to do it again.
The next time I think I bought in at around £3.30, and then September 11 happened....
First the share price dropped to £2.50 so I decided to spend another £2k to help reduce my average buy price. Then the price dropped to £1.90 so I felt compelled to buy another few thousand pounds worth using the same logic. Then the price dropped to around £1.00 per share so I had to buy even more....
Before I knew it, I had far more BA shares than I had ever wanted to own, and I had committed far more of my savings to my 'project' than I could afford to lose.
I'm not exaggerating to say the experience made me feel sick. The problem was I was being greedy, and I wasn't doing something which added any value. The experience made me realise that trading shares over a short time-frame was basically gambling, and I didn't enjoy gambling.
Now, I know you are not planning to do something stupid like I did, and you already have a diversified portfolio, which is great. The reason for mentioning this story was I thought there thinking there was a similarity in the initial thought process.
Now my approach is that I don't look, and I don't try and time anything. Anything which is going into shares is staying in for decades anyway. So for me, gradual and steady is perfectly fine. Just my tuppence worth.
EddieSteadyGo said:
Quite a few years ago in the year 2001, I thought something similar.
I had noticed a pattern in BA shares which tended at the time to bounce between £3.00 and £4.00 per share. So clever old me bought around £2,000 at £3.00 each and I managed to sell them a few weeks at close to £4.00. I gave myself a pat on the back and was excited to do it again.
The next time I think I bought in at around £3.30, and then September 11 happened....
First the share price dropped to £2.50 so I decided to spend another £2k to help reduce my average buy price. Then the price dropped to £1.90 so I felt compelled to buy another few thousand pounds worth using the same logic. Then the price dropped to around £1.00 per share so I had to buy even more....
Before I knew it, I had far more BA shares than I had ever wanted to own, and I had committed far more of my savings to my 'project' than I could afford to lose.
I'm not exaggerating to say the experience made me feel sick. The problem was I was being greedy, and I wasn't doing something which added any value. The experience made me realise that trading shares over a short time-frame was basically gambling, and I didn't enjoy gambling.
Now, I know you are not planning to do something stupid like I did, and you already have a diversified portfolio, which is great. The reason for mentioning this story was I thought there thinking there was a similarity in the initial thought process.
Now my approach is that I don't look, and I don't try and time anything. Anything which is going into shares is staying in for decades anyway. So for me, gradual and steady is perfectly fine. Just my tuppence worth.
Good advice and an investment strategy that matches your username.I had noticed a pattern in BA shares which tended at the time to bounce between £3.00 and £4.00 per share. So clever old me bought around £2,000 at £3.00 each and I managed to sell them a few weeks at close to £4.00. I gave myself a pat on the back and was excited to do it again.
The next time I think I bought in at around £3.30, and then September 11 happened....
First the share price dropped to £2.50 so I decided to spend another £2k to help reduce my average buy price. Then the price dropped to £1.90 so I felt compelled to buy another few thousand pounds worth using the same logic. Then the price dropped to around £1.00 per share so I had to buy even more....
Before I knew it, I had far more BA shares than I had ever wanted to own, and I had committed far more of my savings to my 'project' than I could afford to lose.
I'm not exaggerating to say the experience made me feel sick. The problem was I was being greedy, and I wasn't doing something which added any value. The experience made me realise that trading shares over a short time-frame was basically gambling, and I didn't enjoy gambling.
Now, I know you are not planning to do something stupid like I did, and you already have a diversified portfolio, which is great. The reason for mentioning this story was I thought there thinking there was a similarity in the initial thought process.
Now my approach is that I don't look, and I don't try and time anything. Anything which is going into shares is staying in for decades anyway. So for me, gradual and steady is perfectly fine. Just my tuppence worth.
Phooey said:
EddieSteadyGo said:
While they were still listed as BA shares, I had to sit on them for ages until sentiment recovered in the airline industry.
I think technically I managed to make a small profit when I finally managed to get rid of them. But I can tell you I didn't celebrate, I just felt relieved.
The sums involved were around £20k, so not a lot by today's standards. But for a guy at the time in his mid 20's it felt like a huge amount. And the problem was I used all of my own savings (and then used all of my wife's too).
At the end of the day, I was young, greedy and stupid. I only mention it now as, even though it is a bit embarrassing, it might save someone else from a rather unpleasant roller coaster ride
EddieSteadyGo said:
Quite a few years ago in the year 2001, I thought something similar.
I had noticed a pattern in BA shares which tended at the time to bounce between £3.00 and £4.00 per share. So clever old me bought around £2,000 at £3.00 each and I managed to sell them a few weeks at close to £4.00. I gave myself a pat on the back and was excited to do it again.
The next time I think I bought in at around £3.30, and then September 11 happened....
First the share price dropped to £2.50 so I decided to spend another £2k to help reduce my average buy price. Then the price dropped to £1.90 so I felt compelled to buy another few thousand pounds worth using the same logic. Then the price dropped to around £1.00 per share so I had to buy even more....
Before I knew it, I had far more BA shares than I had ever wanted to own, and I had committed far more of my savings to my 'project' than I could afford to lose.
I'm not exaggerating to say the experience made me feel sick. The problem was I was being greedy, and I wasn't doing something which added any value. The experience made me realise that trading shares over a short time-frame was basically gambling, and I didn't enjoy gambling.
Now, I know you are not planning to do something stupid like I did, and you already have a diversified portfolio, which is great. The reason for mentioning this story was I thought there thinking there was a similarity in the initial thought process.
Now my approach is that I don't look, and I don't try and time anything. Anything which is going into shares is staying in for decades anyway. So for me, gradual and steady is perfectly fine. Just my tuppence worth.
A great (and harrowing) story mate. Thanks for sharing it (no pun intended!) as it is usually something you only learn the hard way (as you did).I had noticed a pattern in BA shares which tended at the time to bounce between £3.00 and £4.00 per share. So clever old me bought around £2,000 at £3.00 each and I managed to sell them a few weeks at close to £4.00. I gave myself a pat on the back and was excited to do it again.
The next time I think I bought in at around £3.30, and then September 11 happened....
First the share price dropped to £2.50 so I decided to spend another £2k to help reduce my average buy price. Then the price dropped to £1.90 so I felt compelled to buy another few thousand pounds worth using the same logic. Then the price dropped to around £1.00 per share so I had to buy even more....
Before I knew it, I had far more BA shares than I had ever wanted to own, and I had committed far more of my savings to my 'project' than I could afford to lose.
I'm not exaggerating to say the experience made me feel sick. The problem was I was being greedy, and I wasn't doing something which added any value. The experience made me realise that trading shares over a short time-frame was basically gambling, and I didn't enjoy gambling.
Now, I know you are not planning to do something stupid like I did, and you already have a diversified portfolio, which is great. The reason for mentioning this story was I thought there thinking there was a similarity in the initial thought process.
Now my approach is that I don't look, and I don't try and time anything. Anything which is going into shares is staying in for decades anyway. So for me, gradual and steady is perfectly fine. Just my tuppence worth.
Can I just say to anybody reading this that it is so easy to become over confident in your own abilities and try to extract market value that has already been priced in (but you are not aware of).
Buy, ignore (unless there is a serious problem) and hold. It can last generations.
EddieSteadyGo said:
Yeah, they converted to IAG long after I had learnt my lesson.
While they were still listed as BA shares, I had to sit on them for ages until sentiment recovered in the airline industry.
I think technically I managed to make a small profit when I finally managed to get rid of them. But I can tell you I didn't celebrate, I just felt relieved.
The sums involved were around £20k, so not a lot by today's standards. But for a guy at the time in his mid 20's it felt like a huge amount. And the problem was I used all of my own savings (and then used all of my wife's too).
At the end of the day, I was young, greedy and stupid. I only mention it now as, even though it is a bit embarrassing, it might save someone else from a rather unpleasant roller coaster ride
Phew! Glad all ended OK mate. Thanks for sharing While they were still listed as BA shares, I had to sit on them for ages until sentiment recovered in the airline industry.
I think technically I managed to make a small profit when I finally managed to get rid of them. But I can tell you I didn't celebrate, I just felt relieved.
The sums involved were around £20k, so not a lot by today's standards. But for a guy at the time in his mid 20's it felt like a huge amount. And the problem was I used all of my own savings (and then used all of my wife's too).
At the end of the day, I was young, greedy and stupid. I only mention it now as, even though it is a bit embarrassing, it might save someone else from a rather unpleasant roller coaster ride
EddieSteadyGo said:
Phooey said:
EddieSteadyGo said:
While they were still listed as BA shares, I had to sit on them for ages until sentiment recovered in the airline industry.
I think technically I managed to make a small profit when I finally managed to get rid of them. But I can tell you I didn't celebrate, I just felt relieved.
The sums involved were around £20k, so not a lot by today's standards. But for a guy at the time in his mid 20's it felt like a huge amount. And the problem was I used all of my own savings (and then used all of my wife's too).
At the end of the day, I was young, greedy and stupid. I only mention it now as, even though it is a bit embarrassing, it might save someone else from a rather unpleasant roller coaster ride
Theres alot of people who will have been stung chasing bitcoin down from $20k to $10k
JulianPH said:
Phooey - that was not (in any way) a dig at you by the way!
Just general observations accumulated over more than a quarter of a century (very much including my own mistakes)!!!
I know mate.. wise words above in the last few posts.. appreciate the honest replies and views. Might just save me a few quid Just general observations accumulated over more than a quarter of a century (very much including my own mistakes)!!!
As long as you don’t try anything ‘cute’ like playing with ‘shorting’ you’ll be fine. A good FCA compliant trader / company will be a safe ( ish ) bet, but if you get a rogue ( like Kweku Adeboli at UBS who kept shorting without hedging, finding that the price of the instruments he was trading went up, not down, and tried to cover his balls ups / tracks with phantom trades ) you might end up with naff all.
Phooey said:
Bear with me on this one. Phooey light bulb moment
I've been investing £XXX/month into my ISA by a simple Direct-Debit on the first of each month. Simples. I'm very familiar with the saying "Time in the market, not timing the market", but lately I've been thinking of cancelling my DD and waiting for opportunities like today where the FTSE is at it's lowest for the last 5 months. I appreciate the FTSE is just one market, and my portfolio is diversified etc etc, but would I be breaking the golden rule of NOT trying to time the market by chucking a chunk into my (diversified) ISA, or even in a FTSE fund today rather than dripping it in monthly whilst it's at it's lowest in this current ISA subscription year? I feel like i'm missing a (potential) buying opportunity?
FYI - The "professionals" have no idea where the market is headedI've been investing £XXX/month into my ISA by a simple Direct-Debit on the first of each month. Simples. I'm very familiar with the saying "Time in the market, not timing the market", but lately I've been thinking of cancelling my DD and waiting for opportunities like today where the FTSE is at it's lowest for the last 5 months. I appreciate the FTSE is just one market, and my portfolio is diversified etc etc, but would I be breaking the golden rule of NOT trying to time the market by chucking a chunk into my (diversified) ISA, or even in a FTSE fund today rather than dripping it in monthly whilst it's at it's lowest in this current ISA subscription year? I feel like i'm missing a (potential) buying opportunity?
In all the press and economists they are stating the longest bull market in history/x years is coming to an end.
It’s similar to he early 190’s when USA started to ramp up interest rates - the economies which shares or pegged to the $ struggled first (we are seeing this in Argentina and other countries).
Brexit will cause a crisis potentially - scale and time who knows.
Gold has been stead for a long time at the $1100-1300 just as it was Pre the dot com crash. Maybe some £ in there might be sensible.
It’s similar to he early 190’s when USA started to ramp up interest rates - the economies which shares or pegged to the $ struggled first (we are seeing this in Argentina and other countries).
Brexit will cause a crisis potentially - scale and time who knows.
Gold has been stead for a long time at the $1100-1300 just as it was Pre the dot com crash. Maybe some £ in there might be sensible.
Welshbeef said:
In all the press and economists they are stating the longest bull market in history/x years is coming to an end.
They’ve been saying that for a long time now. Eventually they will be right.It’s a bit like some ‘prophets of doom’ always predicting the next recession. If they keep saying it (and they do) eventually they will be proven right.
I’d say that the op is best advised to keep dripping money into the market and be prepared to be in for the long term.
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