Over 35? Former smoker? Inhaler?
Over 35? Former smoker? Inhaler?
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768

Original Poster:

20,678 posts

125 months

Monday 1st October 2018
quotequote all
Let me preface this, by saying I'm a software developer with zero knowledge of this area and putting any weight behind this is probably wildly irresponsible.

However, I was reading a paper which if I've read it correctly, suggests that there are a lot of people out there with COPD (various lung conditions) and that a few simple criteria can establish a statistically significant indication of whether they're more likely than the next person to have COPD.

It's a statistical method derived from looking at one population to extrapolate to the general population so there's a stack of caveats even if I've read the detail correctly. But there's a suggestion that for every 29 people in a population they can score people to identify 5 for clinical assessment of whom 1 would have COPD.

The point of all this, is that I hacked together a webpage which I think asks the questions they use, applies the algorithm they used and spits tells you whether the score meets the criteria to be clinically assessed (i.e. one of the 5 in 29 to find the one who has COPD).

Terrible idea, badly implemented, going unnecessarily scare people if anyone actually uses it, or something that could help 1 in 29?

TL;DR: https://copd.github.io/

Du1point8

22,887 posts

221 months

Monday 1st October 2018
quotequote all
Sorry but that is utter bks...

I'm a high risk according to your page, why is that?

I smoked over 7+ years ago, had asthma as a young kid (for 2-3 years) and could have to choose 0-1 chest infections in the past 3 years when I have had none...

In reality, I'm quite healthy, with no chest problems or breathing problems other than being a little overweight and have not seen a doctor with any illness in over 15 years.

You might want to change the choices to have more range:

Non-smoker (smoked over XX years ago)
Asthma history in the past X years
0 infections/1-2 infections/3+ infections

Yours is a way to narrow a choice range for it to be of any use, as I might as well have chosen yes for everything as I had the same result.

768

Original Poster:

20,678 posts

125 months

Monday 1st October 2018
quotequote all
Du1point8 said:
Sorry but that is utter bks...
No apology necessary, thanks for looking at it. I did fear it would go this way!

Du1point8 said:
You might want to change the choices to have more range:
I would, but I can't legitimately if it's not in the paper (maybe some of these are and I've missed them) - it's their algorithm inputs and so I'd be fiddling it. Perhaps improving it but as I don't have the data I can't verify that.

768

Original Poster:

20,678 posts

125 months

Monday 1st October 2018
quotequote all
Du1point8 said:
I'm a high risk according to your page, why is that?
They have a scale from 0 to 6.5.

Former smoker scores 1.55, asthma 0.75, 0-1 chest infection 0.94, total 3.24.

The threshold they use is 2.5.

However - reading this again, I think it does allow for 0 chest infections to score 0, which would put you under the threshold - I've updated the page.

Edited by 768 on Monday 1st October 12:11

Du1point8

22,887 posts

221 months

Monday 1st October 2018
quotequote all
0-1 chest infection at 0.94 is instantly assuming you have infections and is almost 40% of the points to put you in high risk.

So everyone starts with a 0.94 against them.

Not realistic and should be changed.