Residual estimations, (GFV), analytics
Discussion
So I have a stupid hankering (midlife crisis) of wanting something 'fun' to drive. I've always liked the look of the F-Type, but like a teenager it'd have to be the one that makes a silly noise ('R'). Early (2015) ones are around 45-50K now.
But wise men sayeth "those residuals will disappear like a pony down a pit shaft. Buy a Porsche, that will keep it's value".
Now that seems to be a hard thing to quantify - comparing models now and ones 3 years older is... challenging unless you love spreadsheets!
Fortunately, actuarial types do this all day long as 'value in the future' is an input into PCP calculations - wherein your PCP determines a future value at the outset. Rather unfortunately, this isn't necessarily the value that appears in the GFV/Balloon/Optional final payment box. A high value lowers monthly contract payments, and vice-versa. An over-estimate risks the vendor "losing", an under-estimate means you've bought 'more' than the depreciation (which bizarrely, to me, people feel as if is 'won' money). There's all sorts of reasons that number can get manipulated.
By way of example, playing the "autotrader game" and it's showing a
2015 Fype-R @ 49,888. 3-year GFV as 22,361. That's c. £764 depreciation / month and a loss of 55%
2015 Porsche 911 Carrera PDK @ 64,950 -> 34,270. That's c. £852 depreciation / month and a loss of 47%
Even though the depreciation is less on the 911, it still seems 34,270 FV is low - the cheapest 2012 911 is about £45K. That would be c. £550/mo and only 30% loss.
All of which made me wonder if the 'raw' FV data was available somewhere. Or anyone with a similar analytical bent had any opinions. % depreciation isn't really the whole story as 1% of 10K < 1% of 100K..
NB: I'm not interested in the /actual/ PCP - I wouldn't buy it that way.
Aside:
2017 Aston Martin DB11 @ 99,800 -> 65,645. £950/mo, 34% loss (!).
But wise men sayeth "those residuals will disappear like a pony down a pit shaft. Buy a Porsche, that will keep it's value".
Now that seems to be a hard thing to quantify - comparing models now and ones 3 years older is... challenging unless you love spreadsheets!
Fortunately, actuarial types do this all day long as 'value in the future' is an input into PCP calculations - wherein your PCP determines a future value at the outset. Rather unfortunately, this isn't necessarily the value that appears in the GFV/Balloon/Optional final payment box. A high value lowers monthly contract payments, and vice-versa. An over-estimate risks the vendor "losing", an under-estimate means you've bought 'more' than the depreciation (which bizarrely, to me, people feel as if is 'won' money). There's all sorts of reasons that number can get manipulated.
By way of example, playing the "autotrader game" and it's showing a
2015 Fype-R @ 49,888. 3-year GFV as 22,361. That's c. £764 depreciation / month and a loss of 55%
2015 Porsche 911 Carrera PDK @ 64,950 -> 34,270. That's c. £852 depreciation / month and a loss of 47%
Even though the depreciation is less on the 911, it still seems 34,270 FV is low - the cheapest 2012 911 is about £45K. That would be c. £550/mo and only 30% loss.
All of which made me wonder if the 'raw' FV data was available somewhere. Or anyone with a similar analytical bent had any opinions. % depreciation isn't really the whole story as 1% of 10K < 1% of 100K..
NB: I'm not interested in the /actual/ PCP - I wouldn't buy it that way.
Aside:
2017 Aston Martin DB11 @ 99,800 -> 65,645. £950/mo, 34% loss (!).
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