Classic car prices - Bubble or not?
Discussion
I am sure this has been discussed before, but the only relevant timeframe for this is right now.
To be completely honest, I am a bit of a Roubini when to comes to the market, as I have been thinking for a few years that prices seem seriously overinflated. But as the adage goes ‘Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent’ so I have been wrong.
What do you think now? If there was an indices for classic car prices would you ‘short it’? Or do you think it still has some legs to the upside?
I am just about old enough to remember the last big classic car price collapse, but I wasn’t old enough to be in the market then.
In fact I am seriously miffed that as my financial situation has gradually improved with mortgage getting smaller as the kids and salary get bigger, car prices have accelerated at a faster rate, so I missed being able to buy the cars I really wanted.
But if I had to guess, my feeling is there will be a correction for most of the market within 12 months.
Thoughts?
To be completely honest, I am a bit of a Roubini when to comes to the market, as I have been thinking for a few years that prices seem seriously overinflated. But as the adage goes ‘Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent’ so I have been wrong.
What do you think now? If there was an indices for classic car prices would you ‘short it’? Or do you think it still has some legs to the upside?
I am just about old enough to remember the last big classic car price collapse, but I wasn’t old enough to be in the market then.
In fact I am seriously miffed that as my financial situation has gradually improved with mortgage getting smaller as the kids and salary get bigger, car prices have accelerated at a faster rate, so I missed being able to buy the cars I really wanted.
But if I had to guess, my feeling is there will be a correction for most of the market within 12 months.
Thoughts?
It depends on how you define classic...
I look at the market and, whilst I love 60s and earlier cars, really struggle to see who is buying them. Those who remember these vehicles from their youth, and either own them today or have the means to buy them (perhaps as a result of having enjoyed house price inflation, decent pension arrangements) seem to be in quite a different position from those in their 30s/40s.
Much as I personally would love to have something from the 60s parked in the garage, most of my friends have a preference for 70s/80s-onward motoring and could build a tidy fleet from that era for the price of a single E-type/Aston. I know which I’d do.
If there are no buyers willing to pay the price for “established” classics then the price will correct. Yes, there will be some that will want to buy for historical significance, but I suspect most people buy toys with which they feel a more emotional connection.
I look at the market and, whilst I love 60s and earlier cars, really struggle to see who is buying them. Those who remember these vehicles from their youth, and either own them today or have the means to buy them (perhaps as a result of having enjoyed house price inflation, decent pension arrangements) seem to be in quite a different position from those in their 30s/40s.
Much as I personally would love to have something from the 60s parked in the garage, most of my friends have a preference for 70s/80s-onward motoring and could build a tidy fleet from that era for the price of a single E-type/Aston. I know which I’d do.
If there are no buyers willing to pay the price for “established” classics then the price will correct. Yes, there will be some that will want to buy for historical significance, but I suspect most people buy toys with which they feel a more emotional connection.
Yep, Pre war cars are remarkably affordable.
There is definitely a wave that follows what the 40-60 year old wanted in their youth.
My mum wants an etype, my slightly older than me friends wants capris and escorts, I would love a delta integrale. We are seeing a lot of early 90s jap performance stuff rise. Subaru and evos have started making bigger money.
I don't think classics will bomb, but e types for example don't appeal to me from an ownership pov. They're very pretty. But aren't that great to drive and unless you are really in love with something then I think the foibles are to much to maintain the mega premium.
There is definitely a wave that follows what the 40-60 year old wanted in their youth.
My mum wants an etype, my slightly older than me friends wants capris and escorts, I would love a delta integrale. We are seeing a lot of early 90s jap performance stuff rise. Subaru and evos have started making bigger money.
I don't think classics will bomb, but e types for example don't appeal to me from an ownership pov. They're very pretty. But aren't that great to drive and unless you are really in love with something then I think the foibles are to much to maintain the mega premium.
No they will always be appreciating, in my case I bought a clean '66 VW Beetle not everyone's cup of tea but certainly a classic in every respect, £2k was paid 8 years ago...try finding one for that now, tbh there are not alot of these about now...working.
Nostalgia is mainly the catalyst I think, but I think people just like the no frills, simple motoring a classic cars possess.
I purely bought as a little investment for a house deposit, kept it ticking over and serviced, managed to get a house deposit on my own and the beetle still lives with me I cant part with it, albeit it lives in a dusty barn in the sticks somewhere.
Nostalgia is mainly the catalyst I think, but I think people just like the no frills, simple motoring a classic cars possess.
I purely bought as a little investment for a house deposit, kept it ticking over and serviced, managed to get a house deposit on my own and the beetle still lives with me I cant part with it, albeit it lives in a dusty barn in the sticks somewhere.
CubanPete said:
Yep, Pre war cars are remarkably affordable.
There is definitely a wave that follows what the 40-60 year old wanted in their youth.
My mum wants an etype, my slightly older than me friends wants capris and escorts, I would love a delta integrale. We are seeing a lot of early 90s jap performance stuff rise. Subaru and evos have started making bigger money.
I don't think classics will bomb, but e types for example don't appeal to me from an ownership pov. They're very pretty. But aren't that great to drive and unless you are really in love with something then I think the foibles are to much to maintain the mega premium.
Lovely things Pre war - but are these not on a different level of complicated (fabricated parts only) and must be garaged?There is definitely a wave that follows what the 40-60 year old wanted in their youth.
My mum wants an etype, my slightly older than me friends wants capris and escorts, I would love a delta integrale. We are seeing a lot of early 90s jap performance stuff rise. Subaru and evos have started making bigger money.
I don't think classics will bomb, but e types for example don't appeal to me from an ownership pov. They're very pretty. But aren't that great to drive and unless you are really in love with something then I think the foibles are to much to maintain the mega premium.
Leggy said:
A big cause for the growth in Classic car values are the low interest rates we’ve had for a while.
If interest rates climbed a lot, then some will move their money elsewhere.
There doesn’t seem to be any appetite to hike interest rates up.......
It’s also possibly. Housing market stagnation. If interest rates climbed a lot, then some will move their money elsewhere.
There doesn’t seem to be any appetite to hike interest rates up.......
Ie the cost to step up becomes too much and you end up being content where you are - then you think why not get a nice classic car that the family can enjoy. £15k loan isn’t a vast amount pcm over 7 years
cat with a hat said:
Speak to teenagers these days.... They couldn't give a flying f**k about cars.
If we wait long enough e.g. 50 years, I think we'll find that nearly everyone that did give a f
k is dead.
What do they give a toss about?If we wait long enough e.g. 50 years, I think we'll find that nearly everyone that did give a f
k is dead.When I grew up everything was about cars girls booze (a little about weed)
It’s a global market now for high end vehicles so prices will not collapse like they did in the late 80s unless the global economy tanks and even then if query how many genuine distressed sales there would actually be.
Likewise things like the US 25 year old rule for importation will prop up aspects (Gran Turismo vehicles) of the market as cars move jurisdiction.
I personally wouldn’t waste time trying to call the market - if you like it and can afford it then Just buy it
Likewise things like the US 25 year old rule for importation will prop up aspects (Gran Turismo vehicles) of the market as cars move jurisdiction.
I personally wouldn’t waste time trying to call the market - if you like it and can afford it then Just buy it
Welshbeef said:
What do they give a toss about?
When I grew up everything was about cars girls booze (a little about weed)
i phones, pokemons , girls, android phones, pokemons, girls, laying on the settee all day, pokemons, girls, i phones, pokemons.When I grew up everything was about cars girls booze (a little about weed)
And avoiding any sort of physical activities which involve them getting off the settee.
Cars, anything mechanical, taking anything apart or mending anything involving a screwdriver or spanner, not a chance in hell.
i phones.........
And netflix.
Edited by Monkeylegend on Sunday 17th February 09:10
cat with a hat said:
Speak to teenagers these days.... They couldn't give a flying f**k about cars.
If we wait long enough e.g. 50 years, I think we'll find that nearly everyone that did give a fk is dead.
You say that, & based on the prevailing direction of society I did used to think the same, but look at the current popularity of online car portals aimed at >25's such as Carthrottle, much of it featuring 15+ year old cars.If we wait long enough e.g. 50 years, I think we'll find that nearly everyone that did give a f
k is dead.I definitely think the pre-war period is never going to be as strong again. My father in law bought a lovely Bentley special at the peak of the silly increases in car prices and it staid flat. If he had bought a 60’s 70’s Ferrari or Porsche st the same time he would have doubled his money.
I am not particularly trying to call the market, more just wondering if it is worth waiting to buy something that is currently out of budget, or just sticking to the late 80’s 90’s cars that are affordable.
It will be interesting with all this technology and autonomous driving, that the last of the purely manual cars, which may well be exempt from future regulations , one day become the holy grail of enthusiasts
I am not particularly trying to call the market, more just wondering if it is worth waiting to buy something that is currently out of budget, or just sticking to the late 80’s 90’s cars that are affordable.
It will be interesting with all this technology and autonomous driving, that the last of the purely manual cars, which may well be exempt from future regulations , one day become the holy grail of enthusiasts
DaveCWK said:
cat with a hat said:
Speak to teenagers these days.... They couldn't give a flying f**k about cars.
If we wait long enough e.g. 50 years, I think we'll find that nearly everyone that did give a fk is dead.
You say that, & based on the prevailing direction of society I did used to think the same, but look at the current popularity of online car portals aimed at >25's such as Carthrottle, much of it featuring 15+ year old cars.If we wait long enough e.g. 50 years, I think we'll find that nearly everyone that did give a f
k is dead.Yes there are some younger enthusiasts about super cars, but most couldn't give a toss about the combustion engine, classic cars, mechanics, being a 'good driver' (however you want to define that), etc.
If you spoke to a group of male teenagers 13-19 now vs. 15 years ago I think you'd seen an insane difference in what they aspire to own and do.
Times are changing and the prohibitive cost of driving is just one reason.
ukaskew said:
This is about the 7th year in a row we've had frequent classic car bubble posts, so it's a pretty strongly constructed bubble.
Even 9 years...https://www.pistonheads.com/gassing/topic.asp?t=10...
Every year the experts predict it bursting
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