Brexit - Property Value

[Petrolsmasher]

Anyone have an inkling what may happen to property prices post brexit.

In the case of a deal being made or a deal not being made?

[Evolved]

One min, let me dust off the crystal ball..

No one knows, just as no one knows what the deal will end up being.

[jonspectre]

HM Treasury's analysis below. However this was, I believe, carried out some time ago.

[Petrolsmasher]

jonspectre said:

HM Treasury's analysis below. However this was, I believe, carried out some time ago.

Wow thats some potentially big value drop.

[anonymous-user]

OP, imo prices will either go up a bit, go up a lot, go down a bit, go down a lot or stay pretty stable.

Glad to be of service!

[Croutons]

Given there are 5 volumes of this

https://www.pistonheads.com/gassing/topic.asp?h=0&...

Is there really a need for another thread?

[Petrolsmasher]

Croutons said:

Given there are 5 volumes of this

https://www.pistonheads.com/gassing/topic.asp?h=0&...

Is there really a need for another thread?

Not really brexit specific though is it....

[Evolved]

Petrolsmasher said:

Croutons said:

Given there are 5 volumes of this

https://www.pistonheads.com/gassing/topic.asp?h=0&...

Is there really a need for another thread?

Not really brexit specific though is it....

Again, crystal ball? What are you hoping for here? No one, absolutely no one knows!

[Petrolsmasher]

Evolved said:

Petrolsmasher said:

Croutons said:

Given there are 5 volumes of this

https://www.pistonheads.com/gassing/topic.asp?h=0&...

Is there really a need for another thread?

Not really brexit specific though is it....

Again, crystal ball? What are you hoping for here? No one, absolutely no one knows!

Yes i know noone 'knows'

I was asking what people thought might happen

[Evolved]

Petrolsmasher said:

Evolved said:

Petrolsmasher said:

Croutons said:

Given there are 5 volumes of this

https://www.pistonheads.com/gassing/topic.asp?h=0&...

Is there really a need for another thread?

Not really brexit specific though is it....

Again, crystal ball? What are you hoping for here? No one, absolutely no one knows!

Yes i know noone 'knows'

I was asking what people thought might happen

I think I might become a millionaire this year. Similar comparison.

[Petrolsmasher]

Evolved said:

Petrolsmasher said:

Evolved said:

Petrolsmasher said:

Croutons said:

Given there are 5 volumes of this

https://www.pistonheads.com/gassing/topic.asp?h=0&...

Is there really a need for another thread?

Not really brexit specific though is it....

Again, crystal ball? What are you hoping for here? No one, absolutely no one knows!

Yes i know noone 'knows'

I was asking what people thought might happen

I think I might become a millionaire this year. Similar comparison.

Okay whatever

[Inigo Montoya]

Petrolsmasher said:

Anyone have an inkling what may happen to property prices post brexit.

In the case of a deal being made or a deal not being made?

Pure crystal ball stuff, but here goes:

In the short term, I expect a sluggish property market with sellers reluctant to take risks on a mortgage if they are worried about their job security. Expect not many properties on the market, some taking ages to sell, prices holding steady or slightly declining.

If there is a TM deal, expect this sluggish market to last at least another two years. May's deal is only about the divorce settlement. The actual trade deal has yet to be agreed, so there will be lots of uncertainty during the transition period. We might end up with a close trade deal or a no-deal.

If there is a no deal exit, we get into "told you so" territory. Leavers will argue that everything will be fine. Remainers (or soft leavers) will say that we're heading for a decline. You pays your money and you takes your choice. Personally I expect a slump in house prices in the event of a no deal, partly because of Brexit and partly because property is probably overpriced at the moment.

If there is a soft Brexit, say a Norway plus, I'd expect a modest recovery for property prices.

In the long term, there's a shortage of housing across the country generally so I do expect property prices to pick up again whatever happens with Brexit. It might take a few years though.

Total guesswork of course. If I knew I'd be on my yacht in the south of france instead of wondering if I can pluck up the courage to watch the England-Ireland game I've recorded

[Countdown]

Petrolsmasher said:

Anyone have an inkling what may happen to property prices post brexit.

In the case of a deal being made or a deal not being made?

What’s your specific concern? For example do you HAVE property that you’re thinking of selling? Are you honking of buying.

One thing to bear in mind is the location of the property. For example the impact of Brexit on London property will be markedly different to the impact of property in barrow in Furness.

[Croutons]

Petrolsmasher said:

Not really brexit specific though is it....

You’ve not bothered to read a single post on there then which is all about exactly what’s happening “right now”?

And as Brexit will/ won’t happen soon, as it will be a simple event at a point in time, the best direction you’ll get is sentiment, which is based on what’s just been happening.

So don’t be such a dismissive .

[anonymous-user]

I feel it will be a tough time but hard to predict as it will have different levels of impact based on numerous factors.

Supply and demand. It is likely people will be nervous to buy and banks may be nervous to lend as they try to work out what the fk is going to happen. New housing may then decline as there is a risk that they won't find buyers. This could help balance some of the losses as supply won't increase. It could be argued some of the fkers who voted brexit may look to sell as they begin to downsize and look for a place closer to god's weighting room.

Industry losses of jobs in certain areas will make people less likely to buy potentially look to default etc

Foreign money coming in or leaving. A major push by some of the 1% to leave is the European tax avoidance laws they hope to avoid. That could make us more attractive. That said brexit could be an issue for a number of people who then look to sell up.

Russia owns loads of London if you believe some of the press. That could be a factor of we start freezing more assets of Russian citizens here.

Consumer confidence in general may well go down as people hold off for future

Economy benefits form house buys so it will be something the govt monitors well and would like to stimulate.

So fk knows.

My guess would be it will drop a bit but not more than the shock numbers posted above.

[soupdragon1]

Croutons said:

Petrolsmasher said:

Not really brexit specific though is it....

You’ve not bothered to read a single post on there then which is all about exactly what’s happening “right now”?

And as Brexit will/ won’t happen soon, as it will be a simple event at a point in time, the best direction you’ll get is sentiment, which is based on what’s just been happening.

So don’t be such a dismissive .

I've read pretty much every post. Quite an interesting thread but it's basically a house prices of London thread. I think the OPs comment is fair to be honest.

[Petrolsmasher]

soupdragon1 said:

Croutons said:

Petrolsmasher said:

Not really brexit specific though is it....

You’ve not bothered to read a single post on there then which is all about exactly what’s happening “right now”?

And as Brexit will/ won’t happen soon, as it will be a simple event at a point in time, the best direction you’ll get is sentiment, which is based on what’s just been happening.

So don’t be such a dismissive .

I've read pretty much every post. Quite an interesting thread but it's basically a house prices of London thread. I think the OPs comment is fair to be honest.

Thank you. Theres always someone who has a go at most things people post on this forum, must help their self ego.

[Sheepshanks]

Petrolsmasher said:

I was asking what people thought might happen

Overall average selling prices might reduce but the effects on specific property could be exaggerated either way - anything a bit "iffy" will be hit hard, and in-demand property could be un-affected.

Edited by Sheepshanks on Sunday 24th February 18:46

[Edible Roadkill]

I’d absolutely expect an initial drop in both currency and home values. Which will be made back up within a year or 2.

House prices don’t concern me too much, I own one but then I always plan to own one right up until the day I die so it’s value is more or less irrelevant as it’s locked into the home I live in. Reiterated more by the fact I don’t plan to move house again. If you are planning on moving then the house you move to will drop in value or go up in value in accordance with the one owned so it’s not a massive factor. Only problem I foresee is folks that oversubscribed on low apr low ltv mortgages but then they appreciated the level of risk they took on at the time so I can’t be too sympathetic in that sense.

[ooid]

In some certain areas in London, comparing to early 2017, property values currently already down between 5% - 10%. (Depending on the location, condition and type of course).