Changes at Mercedes?

[StevieBee]

....but not for a few years yet.

This just popped up on Insta so the usual caveats on validity apply but some interesting predictions to discuss:

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Some interesting changes in #F1 governance might happen after 2020! Racefans.net reports that #TotoWolff is considering his future, and Liberty Media has put his name on the table to take on the CEO role from Chase Carey.

According to Racefans, #Mercedes has a pull option to acquire Wolf's shares (30%) to predetermined rates, exerting their right of first refusal. Moreover, the change in regulations in 2021 might put an end to the team's domination, and Wolff is said to have a rocky relationship with rumoured Dieter Zetsche's successor in the role of Mercedes CEO, Ola Kallenius.

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[TheDeuce]

StevieBee said:

....but not for a few years yet.

This just popped up on Insta so the usual caveats on validity apply but some interesting predictions to discuss:

• ***

Some interesting changes in #F1 governance might happen after 2020! Racefans.net reports that #TotoWolff is considering his future, and Liberty Media has put his name on the table to take on the CEO role from Chase Carey.

According to Racefans, #Mercedes has a pull option to acquire Wolf's shares (30%) to predetermined rates, exerting their right of first refusal. Moreover, the change in regulations in 2021 might put an end to the team's domination, and Wolff is said to have a rocky relationship with rumoured Dieter Zetsche's successor in the role of Mercedes CEO, Ola Kallenius.

• ****

Apart from the 'rumoured rocky relationship' (the press do tend to exaggerate), the rest sounds pretty feasible to me. He can't stay there forever and he's a proven businessman that understands racing. Probably a good man for the job.

I'm not sure that the changes in regulation will harm Mercedes very much in 2021, they are able to R&D pretty much every possible permutation of the new rules for the next 2 years, with no budget caps to hinder them. But in the end, say 2022/23, it could start to really bite and it would not surprise me if Toto was considering leaving on a high before entering a new, potentially awkward era for Mercedes.

[kiseca]

That may well have implications for Ross Brawn too. That's another rocky relationship in Toto's filofax, I believe.

[TheDeuce]

kiseca said:

That may well have implications for Ross Brawn too. That's another rocky relationship in Toto's filofax, I believe.

Toto has an effectively unlimited budget (providing he can persuade the board of what he needs each season to secure the championship that is). Braun has supported and structured cost caps for 2021.

Yes, I can imagine they might have a few different ideas about that!

Although in a different role, Toto might see that situation very differently of course. For Toto's own CV, in many ways it would be great if Mercedes stopped winning shortly after his departure. I'm sure whatever, if anything that he is discussing or considering will take account of many factors over and above what we will hear about, or is expressed in a tweet.

[SturdyHSV]

Whatever poor bd will take the role when Toto leaves is going to be doomed to failure really isn't he / she?

Probably 7 consecutive driver's/constructor's championships to follow on from, only way is down really isn't it, especially with a big rule shake-up etc.

[rdjohn]

TheDeuce said:

I'm not sure that the changes in regulation will harm Mercedes very much in 2021, they are able to R&D pretty much every possible permutation of the new rules for the next 2 years, with no budget caps to hinder them. But in the end, say 2022/23, it could start to really bite and it would not surprise me if Toto was considering leaving on a high before entering a new, potentially awkward era for Mercedes.

I really don’t see how they can do that. They have limited CFD and wind tunnel time and need that capacity for this and next year’s cars.

There are likely to be so many spec bits coming to the car, it would negate any research. Finally without knowing the basic limitations, what exactly are they likely to want to research?

As for the headline story, I will believe it when it’s confirmed on a reliable news outlet. Anything is possible; some things just seem unlikely.

If Daimler decided that they did not want to stay post 2021 because they could not dominate the field, then I could perhaps understand it, but in that event, I could imagine Toto wanting to buy the slimmed-down outfit, at an advantageous price.

[TheDeuce]

rdjohn said:

I really don’t see how they can do that. They have limited CFD and wind tunnel time and need that capacity for this and next year’s cars.

There are likely to be so many spec bits coming to the car, it would negate any research. Finally without knowing the basic limitations, what exactly are they likely to want to research?

As for the headline story, I will believe it when it’s confirmed on a reliable news outlet. Anything is possible; some things just seem unlikely.

If Daimler decided that they did not want to stay post 2021 because they could not dominate the field, then I could perhaps understand it, but in that event, I could imagine Toto wanting to buy the slimmed-down outfit, at an advantageous price.

They can't do as much, or as well. But they can and I'm sure will do whatever they can think of doing that could be even potentially worthwhile.

The new regs are just in an outline draught of intent right now. But those intents can only be achieved so many ways. It is known they want to hugely decrease the dirty air problem, significantly more so than the 2019 changes. That will probably require aero regs that force the teams to fire more air upwards to achieve down-force, rather than along and over the side-pods, and also less reliance on ground effect - those being the things that create the dirty air problem in the first place. Any team with a big enough budget can assemble of innovation team to start looking into how such things could be achieved in the most efficient way. It's a very different approach to aero (more crude in many ways) but it's also a major change in car design philosophy so whatever a team can do to get a jump on it, I'm sure they will.

It's not all cloak and dagger development either, according to this from Brawn, the door is already open for teams to 'help' them define what works in certain areas, so that they can base the regs around what is nessecary:

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"Research and development have continued though the year, with teams also being asked to chip in and help. As a result, the World Motor Sport Council confirmed teams can run unrestricted simulations on the development of 2021 cars. The programme has been split between the teams who have chosen to take part, with the work controlled and approved by the FIA with the results shared with F1’s research group.

“The FIA and ourselves have issued a framework of what the car could be like with tasks for each team to look at aspects of it,” says Brawn. “It’s not enough for teams to go off and start designing a car, we’re purposefully trying to hold back on that.

“We don’t want teams with a lot of resource to gain a march on those who don’t. But it’s a difficult balance because there is a perfectly valid argument that the later you leave the issuing of the information, the more it suits the teams with a lot of resource."

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His closing comment there is quite interesting. It certainly is a difficult path he walks, he can't do this without team input. But the top 3 teams will surely find a better way of exploiting that involvement than those that don't have the resource to take part to the same extent, or simply choose no to take part at all.