EU extension - how will the Govt get round it?

[mr_spock]

(sorry, another Brexit thread, but specific to one issue I hope!)

So the PM has said he'll comply with the Benn act, and we'll still leave on Oct 31st come what may. These seem incompatible. How will he do that?

I just read the Act (here: http://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/2019/26/enacte... and I'm wondering if this is his escape clause:

"Nothing in this section shall prevent the Prime Minister from agreeing to an extension of the period specified in Article 50(3) of the Treaty on European Union otherwise than in accordance with this section."

I think that means that he can agree a 1 minute extension. Am I reading it right? Or how else can he keep his promise?

[mcdjl]

He complies with condition 1: "1)The condition in this subsection is that a Minister of the Crown has laid before each House of Parliament a statement that the United Kingdom has concluded an agreement with the European Union under Article 50(2) of the Treaty on European Union and a copy of the agreement and—
(a)the agreement has been approved by resolution of the House of Commons on a motion moved by a Minister of the Crown, and
(b)a motion for the House of Lords to take note of the agreement has been tabled in the House of Lords by a Minister of the Crown and—
(i)the House of Lords has debated the motion, or
(ii)the House of Lords has not concluded a debate on the motion before the end of the period of two Lords sitting days beginning with the first Lords sitting day after the day on which the House of Commons passes the resolution mentioned in paragraph"

[over_the_hill]

Perhaps someone could clarify.

To get an extension all EU members must agree. Do we also get to vote here ?
Would it be possible to hand in the letter asking for the extension - thus fulfilling the requirement - but then vote against granting it when it comes to the decision.

Failing that how about Boris Johnson hands in the letter (with a deputy in tow) then instantly resigns as PM.
Deputy takes back the letter and rips it in half claiming "He's no longer in charge, all bets are off".

[anonymous-user]

Whatever con he tries on the 17th, HOC will have 2 weeks to devise another way..

[paulrockliffe]

My best guess is that the first question the Government asked was, "Can we leave the EU at all without an Election?"

The strategy from there depends on that answer, because there isn't a parallel strategy that works for both options. I'm leaning towards the conclusion being No and the strategy being to manage the process to arrive at the Election in a winning position.

If that's the case the strategy is for Boris not to go to Brussels on the 19th one way or another, then work from there.

If he refuses to go, the Supreme Court will likely rule the next day that he did go, along the same lines that they ruled that the Queen did not prorogue Parliament when she clearly did. The EU will dictate their terms, Parliament will accept them and Boris will jump 5% in the polls.

If he resigns, Bercow will facilitate someone else going instead and Boris will jump 5% in the polls.

Essentially there's acceptance that we won't leave in October, but those that made that decision will have to own it. Boris jumps 5% in the Polls.

I'm leaning that way really because Bercow and the Supreme Court has shown that they will rule against reality if necessary so I don't see any cunning wheeze that won't be defeated by the Courts, whether fairly or not.

Probably the best way to get out in October is to insult Macron or bribe Orban, but the reality is even that would likely only lead to an extension with a resolution that it's the last to give the EU 3 months to prepare for a no-deal exit or to force us to revoke instead.

[loafer123]

My view is that Boris will tell Macron he's a pussy and is bottling it.

No chance that puffed up prick could resist.

[Biker 1]

I think BJ will circumvent the Benn bill, whatever is said to the contrary: https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/sep/27/b...

Watch this space...

[s2art]

Alternatively Boris could submit the extension request but let them know that it wasnt a money bill that Benn obtained so there is no requirement for the UK to pay a penny more to the EU. So grant the extension if you want to, but there will be no more contributions.

[mr_spock]

paulrockliffe said:

If he refuses to go, the Supreme Court will likely rule the next day that he did go, along the same lines that they ruled that the Queen did not prorogue Parliament when she clearly did. The EU will dictate their terms, Parliament will accept them and Boris will jump 5% in the polls.

If he resigns, Bercow will facilitate someone else going instead and Boris will jump 5% in the polls.

Essentially there's acceptance that we won't leave in October, but those that made that decision will have to own it. Boris jumps 5% in the Polls.

This is clever! Especially if he can make Corbyn do it.

The refusal to pay any more, or appointing Nigel Farage as EU commissioner (we'll have to appoint someone past Oct 31st), or any other method of acting in bad faith, would be quashed by the Supreme Court within hours I suspect.

[longblackcoat]

loafer123 said:

My view is that Boris will tell Macron he's a pussy and is bottling it.

No chance that puffed up prick could resist.

Which one is the puffed up prick?

[Heartworm]

paulrockliffe said:

.

If he refuses to go, the Supreme Court will likely rule the next day that he did go, along the same lines that they ruled that the Queen did not prorogue Parliament when she clearly did. The EU will dictate their terms, Parliament will accept them and Boris will jump 5% in the polls.

.

God forbid that the courts uphold the law of the land. Ffs this is just ridiculous,

[loafer123]

longblackcoat said:

loafer123 said:

My view is that Boris will tell Macron he's a pussy and is bottling it.

No chance that puffed up prick could resist.

Which one is the puffed up prick?

Both. But Macron is the one to stop the extension.

[paulrockliffe]

Heartworm said:

paulrockliffe said:

.

If he refuses to go, the Supreme Court will likely rule the next day that he did go, along the same lines that they ruled that the Queen did not prorogue Parliament when she clearly did. The EU will dictate their terms, Parliament will accept them and Boris will jump 5% in the polls.

.

God forbid that the courts uphold the law of the land. Ffs this is just ridiculous,

The point isn't what the Law of the Land is, it's how that became the Law.

Much of the country looking on sees a Law the Government didn't want that is against their interests and will happily vote in a General Election against the people that did that. Those that are particular engaged with this process see SO14 that is derived from the principle that the winner of an election Governs, being set aside so as to set aside the referendum result.

You can't blame Boris for engineering events such as he still can so they paint the strongest light on those actions.

It's a serious point though about the Supreme Court, do you not think they might rule that the PM defacto did ask for an extension because that was what the law said he must do?

[paulrockliffe]

mr_spock said:

This is clever! Especially if he can make Corbyn do it.

I think there's so much in play that having a nailed on strategy is a fantasy, but being able to manage events and get the best from situations as they unfold may be the best strategy. It's easier to do that if your aim isn't to win now, but to get an election on the best possible terms.

It was obvious that Labour would vote against an election, so the motion was put to build poll ratings and get some juicy clips for the campaign. It also backed Corbyn into a corner, he can't very easily refuse an election now he's stated the terms under which he wants them. As a side effect we now see all criticism of the Government with "If that was true you'd call an election."

I doubt the strategy is to get Corbyn grovelling in Brussels, but that would make for some pretty nice election material, as well as having potential to cause a Labour meltdown over what their policy really is.

[Fittster]

paulrockliffe said:

mr_spock said:

This is clever! Especially if he can make Corbyn do it.

I think there's so much in play that having a nailed on strategy is a fantasy, but being able to manage events and get the best from situations as they unfold may be the best strategy. It's easier to do that if your aim isn't to win now, but to get an election on the best possible terms.

It was obvious that Labour would vote against an election, so the motion was put to build poll ratings and get some juicy clips for the campaign. It also backed Corbyn into a corner, he can't very easily refuse an election now he's stated the terms under which he wants them. As a side effect we now see all criticism of the Government with "If that was true you'd call an election."

I doubt the strategy is to get Corbyn grovelling in Brussels, but that would make for some pretty nice election material, as well as having potential to cause a Labour meltdown over what their policy really is.

Why does Boris want an election before Brexit? He campaigned for Brexit, he lead the Conservative party to deliver Brexit. Once the public have seen Brexit he and the Tories will get their reward.

[stongle]

loafer123 said:

My view is that Boris will tell Macron he's a pussy and is bottling it.

No chance that puffed up prick could resist.

Or rattle his misses, since Boris likes blondes. Although to Boris, his usual bit of skirt is young enough to be Macron's granddaughter.

[norush]

Love him or loathe him, I think Boris is in a win win situation. There is no opposition worth mentioning and he knows it.

[don'tbesilly]

paulrockliffe said:

My best guess is that the first question the Government asked was, "Can we leave the EU at all without an Election?"

The strategy from there depends on that answer, because there isn't a parallel strategy that works for both options. I'm leaning towards the conclusion being No and the strategy being to manage the process to arrive at the Election in a winning position.

If that's the case the strategy is for Boris not to go to Brussels on the 19th one way or another, then work from there.

If he refuses to go, the Supreme Court will likely rule the next day that he did go, along the same lines that they ruled that the Queen did not prorogue Parliament when she clearly did. The EU will dictate their terms, Parliament will accept them and Boris will jump 5% in the polls.

If he resigns, Bercow will facilitate someone else going instead and Boris will jump 5% in the polls.

Essentially there's acceptance that we won't leave in October, but those that made that decision will have to own it. Boris jumps 5% in the Polls.

I'm leaning that way really because Bercow and the Supreme Court has shown that they will rule against reality if necessary so I don't see any cunning wheeze that won't be defeated by the Courts, whether fairly or not.

Probably the best way to get out in October is to insult Macron or bribe Orban, but the reality is even that would likely only lead to an extension with a resolution that it's the last to give the EU 3 months to prepare for a no-deal exit or to force us to revoke instead.

I'd agree, and have stated similar, albeit in a different manner:

Whichever way it goes Cummings/Johnson are onto a winner.

It really is simple now, it's the People Vs Parliament, and that narrative gets stronger after each day that passes.

[Troubleatmill]

Fittster said:

paulrockliffe said:

mr_spock said:

This is clever! Especially if he can make Corbyn do it.

I think there's so much in play that having a nailed on strategy is a fantasy, but being able to manage events and get the best from situations as they unfold may be the best strategy. It's easier to do that if your aim isn't to win now, but to get an election on the best possible terms.

It was obvious that Labour would vote against an election, so the motion was put to build poll ratings and get some juicy clips for the campaign. It also backed Corbyn into a corner, he can't very easily refuse an election now he's stated the terms under which he wants them. As a side effect we now see all criticism of the Government with "If that was true you'd call an election."

I doubt the strategy is to get Corbyn grovelling in Brussels, but that would make for some pretty nice election material, as well as having potential to cause a Labour meltdown over what their policy really is.

Why does Boris want an election before Brexit? He campaigned for Brexit, he lead the Conservative party to deliver Brexit. Once the public have seen Brexit he and the Tories will get their reward.

You are aware how most Labour constituencies voted?

Also - with Labour promising unlimited immigration, lots of free stuff to all immigrants and the right to vote...... so they can never be voted out..... Labour MP's will get a kicking from the electorate.

[TwigtheWonderkid]

Doesn't the Benn bill stop him from leaving without a deal. But does it actually say what the deal has to be?

Could Boris come back on 1 Nov and say we'll left the EU with a deal, we can keep using EU style number plates. Or an other meaningless concession? It's then not a no deal Brexit, so the Benn bill doesn't apply.