If Boris loses his seat

[JuanCarlosFandango]

...But the Conservatives win the election.
How would this play out?

Looking at the previous election results for Boris' seat here there was a big swing to Labour in 2017. With a Lib Dem resurgence and a possible remain pact with Labour in some form such a scenario is not impossible.

As far as I can tell the closest precedent in this country is Alec Douglas-Home who was a lord when he replaced MacMillain then got into a safe seat at a by election shortly afterwards. However not being a lord this would leave Boris with a gap before he could find a safe seat.

Would we have another leadership battle in the Conservative party, or would JRM or someone else (we don't currently have a Deputy PM) step in?

And would it be more complicated still if the Tories are short of a majority and relying on another party for support?

[frisbee]

Losing his seat would just be another part of the master plan.

[Burwood]

A safe Tory seat by some margin and has been for 30 years who also voted a leave. Lol.

[frisbee]

Burwood said:

A safe Tory seat by some margin and has been for 30 years who also voted a leave. Lol.

From memory the 10k majority in 2015 was down to 5k in 2017.

A local labour registration and vote drive and a strong Brexit candidate could easily wipe that majority out.

Plus the roulette wheel that is Boris opening his mouth.

[CaptainSlow]

Still not the safest seat for him, lots of postal votes could come from the south of the constituency.

He'd be better going to Beaconsfield now Grieve has burnt his bridges.

[Burwood]

frisbee said:

Burwood said:

A safe Tory seat by some margin and has been for 30 years who also voted a leave. Lol.

From memory the 10k majority in 2015 was down to 5k in 2017.

A local labour registration and vote drive and a strong Brexit candidate could easily wipe that majority out.

Plus the roulette wheel that is Boris opening his mouth.

You’re assuming 2017 popularity. Labour are in the cactus

[frisbee]

Burwood said:

frisbee said:

Burwood said:

A safe Tory seat by some margin and has been for 30 years who also voted a leave. Lol.

From memory the 10k majority in 2015 was down to 5k in 2017.

A local labour registration and vote drive and a strong Brexit candidate could easily wipe that majority out.

Plus the roulette wheel that is Boris opening his mouth.

You’re assuming 2017 popularity. Labour are in the cactus

Whatever Theresa.

[jtremlett]

Bear in mind this is Labour's candidate for the seat: https://order-order.com/people/ali-milani/

[voyds9]

CaptainSlow said:

Still not the safest seat for him, lots of postal votes could come from the south of the constituency.

He'd be better going to Beaconsfield now Grieve has burnt his bridges.

Vote early, vote often

[Burwood]

frisbee said:

Burwood said:

frisbee said:

Burwood said:

A safe Tory seat by some margin and has been for 30 years who also voted a leave. Lol.

From memory the 10k majority in 2015 was down to 5k in 2017.

A local labour registration and vote drive and a strong Brexit candidate could easily wipe that majority out.

Plus the roulette wheel that is Boris opening his mouth.

You’re assuming 2017 popularity. Labour are in the cactus

Whatever Theresa.

No idea what you mean. The labour candidate is an Iranian leftie who hates Jews. Oh and he’s 24. Awesome

[vaud]

You don't need to be an MP, or even a Lord to be PM.

[JuanCarlosFandango]

vaud said:

You don't need to be an MP, or even a Lord to be PM.

There's no written law saying so, but could he really carry on as PM having lost his seat? I don't see it.

[abzmike]

JuanCarlosFandango said:

There's no written law saying so, but could he really carry on as PM having lost his seat? I don't see it.

It would give him another way to avoid Prime Ministers Questions in the house.

[vaud]

JuanCarlosFandango said:

There's no written law saying so, but could he really carry on as PM having lost his seat? I don't see it.

The wonders of an unwritten constitution.

It’s about confidence of the House of Commons.

[Murph7355]

frisbee said:

Burwood said:

A safe Tory seat by some margin and has been for 30 years who also voted a leave. Lol.

From memory the 10k majority in 2015 was down to 5k in 2017.

A local labour registration and vote drive and a strong Brexit candidate could easily wipe that majority out.

Plus the roulette wheel that is Boris opening his mouth.

57% leave.

1,500 voted UKIP in 2017.

Labour were still keen on honouring the referendum in 2017.

Boris wasn't PM.

There's not much I'd bet on for the next GE. But I'd be happy to put some money down on him not losing that seat.

[ralphrj]

Doesn't this depend on the changes to constituency boundaries?

Boris would have lost the seat in 2017 if the changes had already gone through.

[GOATever]

It won’t happen. If the Conservatives fielded a monkey, people would still vote for the monkey. To be fair, there’s not much difference, other than Boris won’t start flinging his st at people..........

[Jonny_]

GOATever said:

It won’t happen. If the Conservatives fielded a monkey, people would still vote for the monkey. To be fair, there’s not much difference, other than Boris won’t start flinging his st at people..........

Just how sure are you of that?