The 3rd Brexit Referendum

[anonymous-user]

In my view we are about to have the 3rd Brexit referendum:

Ref 1 - 2016. Result was 52% out 48% in

Ref 2 - 2017 election, to be fair to the LibDems they were the only major party to have remain in their manifesto, Labour/Tories both said they would leave. But LibDems only got 7% of the vote.

Ref 3 - 2019 election, again LibDems have remain in their manifesto but opinion polls show them at 13%, Tories (leave) at 43% and Labour (insert your own confused answer here) at 33%

It seems to me that LibDems are the main party who have consistently fought for remain yet in 2017 or 2019 few of the original 48% remainers are voting for them.

Am I wrong in thinking that remainers do not sufficiently care for their cause to actually vote for it? In which case why all the fuss over the last few years, why not just let the Brexiteers get on with it?

[MikeM6]

There may well be a large portion of those that would like to remain, but can't see themselves voting Lib Dem.

[Randy Winkman]

MikeStroud said:

In my view we are about to have the 3rd Brexit referendum:

Ref 1 - 2016. Result was 52% out 48% in

Ref 2 - 2017 election, to be fair to the LibDems they were the only major party to have remain in their manifesto, Labour/Tories both said they would leave. But LibDems only got 7% of the vote.

Ref 3 - 2019 election, again LibDems have remain in their manifesto but opinion polls show them at 13%, Tories (leave) at 43% and Labour (insert your own confused answer here) at 33%

It seems to me that LibDems are the main party who have consistently fought for remain yet in 2017 or 2019 few of the original 48% remainers are voting for them.

Am I wrong in thinking that remainers do not sufficiently care for their cause to actually vote for it? In which case why all the fuss over the last few years, why not just let the Brexiteers get on with it?

I don't agree with you. It's a general election not a Brexit referendum. Most people assume that LibDem cant win with a majority overall and/or cant win in their constituency. Where I live in London there was a majority for remain and my guess (I admit it's a guess) is that it would probably be a bigger majority now. But LibDem almost certainly wont come out top at the GE. My fingers are crossed though.

[oyster]

MikeStroud said:

In my view we are about to have the 3rd Brexit referendum:

Ref 1 - 2016. Result was 52% out 48% in

Ref 2 - 2017 election, to be fair to the LibDems they were the only major party to have remain in their manifesto, Labour/Tories both said they would leave. But LibDems only got 7% of the vote.

Ref 3 - 2019 election, again LibDems have remain in their manifesto but opinion polls show them at 13%, Tories (leave) at 43% and Labour (insert your own confused answer here) at 33%

It seems to me that LibDems are the main party who have consistently fought for remain yet in 2017 or 2019 few of the original 48% remainers are voting for them.

Am I wrong in thinking that remainers do not sufficiently care for their cause to actually vote for it? In which case why all the fuss over the last few years, why not just let the Brexiteers get on with it?

Sorry, 2017 and 2019 are general elections, not referendums.

They are mandates for Parliamentary numbers that's all.
It may well be that those numbers mean a particular policy is implemented.

But be clear, a general election is NOT, and will NEVER be, a poll of opinion on a single subject.

[DanL]

People don’t generally vote on single issues in an election... However, if Brexit is an issue people feel strongly enough about that it overrides everything else, your premise will hold true.

I don’t yet know which way I’ll vote, but the results for Windsor will absolutely test your theory. It was ~70% remain from memory, but our conservative MP has consistently voted for Brexit. It’s not impossible that the Lib Dems will take Windsor (given that labour have no chance), but only if people do feel strongly enough to vote on just one issue.

For me - I voted remain. However, the referendum outcome was leave, and a lack of clarity / decision feels more damaging than anything else now. I believe we should just get on with it, so we can see the outcome and businesses can react accordingly, rather than the current state of limbo.

[rdjohn]

The yawning gap in the reality of the Labour intention to “negotiate a fairer deal” is that it probably means remaining in the Customs Union and Single market. A Norway deal is Remaining in the very worst way - all the negatives without a chair at the table.

I voted Leave, but between that choice and Remain, I would vote Remain.

So Labour are not really sitting on the fence, they are offering you a blurred route to Remain. The choice really is that stark.

[ZeroGroundZero]

Agree with the OP, it is "in effect" a 3rd referendum on the brexit issue. Because brexit is the primary issue in all three voting events.
Even could count it as 3.5 if you include our representative electorate (the MPs) voting to enact Article 50.

And I presume that of all 3.5 events, they will be in favour of "getting brexit done".

[Down and out]

Don't forget the Euro elections.

[Randy Winkman]

ZeroGroundZero said:

Agree with the OP, it is "in effect" a 3rd referendum on the brexit issue. Because brexit is the primary issue in all three voting events.
Even could count it as 3.5 if you include our representative electorate (the MPs) voting to enact Article 50.

And I presume that of all 3.5 events, they will be in favour of "getting brexit done".

Just out of interest then …. if there was another Brexit vote how do you think it would turn out? I appreciate that's a difficult question and admit my guess could only be that it would be largely the same as last time.

[CambsBill]

rdjohn said:

The yawning gap in the reality of the Labour intention to “negotiate a fairer deal” is that it probably means remaining in the Customs Union and Single market. A Norway deal is Remaining in the very worst way - all the negatives without a chair at the table.

I voted Leave, but between that choice and Remain, I would vote Remain.

So Labour are not really sitting on the fence, they are offering you a blurred route to Remain. The choice really is that stark.

I happened to take a driving holiday around Norway just after the Brexit vote and every single local I spoke to about it said don't take the Norway option, they hate it.

[anonymous-user]

oyster said:

But be clear, a general election is NOT, and will NEVER be, a poll of opinion on a single subject.

I do get your point. But Brexit was the ONLY issue before the election and (imo) it will be the ONLY issue after the election. So it is all well and good voting on who will run the trains or how often your bins get emptied after the election but all parliamentary time will be spent with one side or other blocking the other on Brexit again (at least that is how I see it). Unless there is some large majority one way or the other where we are heading is a hung parliament with more of the same endless Brexit debate for 5 years.

So to me it is about Brexit, it either has to be decisively voted to be done (Tories), or not done (LibDem). If we end up with something in the middle then only Brexit will be discusssed for the next 5 years and the election has been for nothing. The election was called (imo) to make a decisive decision on Brexit.

[Scootersp]

It is in a way interesting that the Lib Dem's haven't done better. With leaving seen as so catastrophic by many, you'd think it would override the internal issues (as the Lib Dem's aren't exactly going to do anything radical ie abolish the NHS overnight or slash Defence budgets etc etc if they did get in) and stop the 'problem' as many people see it in its tracks?

What does it matter about the next 5 years when leaving is (potentially) forever? If a remainer doesn't vote Lib Dem then are they effectively saying a Lib Dem government for 5 years is worse than leaving the EU? Or is it that collectively there is just a stigma/reality that they just can't win and its a wasted vote?

[dazwalsh]

i think for a lot of people even though they voted remain and would prefer to remain, they cannot vote for the lib dems because of their approach. they would have been better off keeping with their 2nd referendum approach, just like they have done since the result came in. Revoking article 50 outright some would argue takes a massive st on the democracy of the 2016 vote.

It didn't help that the Leave - remain split didn't overlap the left - right split very well, add to that the north - south split and it all goes to st. Parties struggled to take a stance on brexit and simultaneously keep hold of their vote, none more so than labour, who are still trying to straddle the fence to keep every labour voter on side. the problem is people are starting to see through their shambolic and disjointed approach which is why they have barely mentioned it during this campaign, and have looked daft every time they have had to answer a question on it.

A lot of voters are going to have to hold their nose if they want to vote for a party that best represents their brexit wishes, and for a lot of them the likes of the NHS or whatever might be more important to them than brexit anyways. It also may be that the Libs have such a poor show in constituencies that a remain vote might be wasted on them, and a far better use of the vote would be to assist with the removal or Boris or making sure Corbyn doesn't get in.

[Jacobyte]

MikeStroud said:

Am I wrong in thinking that remainers do not sufficiently care for their cause to actually vote for it?

Partially. On Radio 4 yesterday one respondent said that whilst he voted remain, he could not vote for Lib Dem, as they are being undemocratic in not accepting the result of the referendum.

[ZeroGroundZero]

Randy Winkman said:

ZeroGroundZero said:

Agree with the OP, it is "in effect" a 3rd referendum on the brexit issue. Because brexit is the primary issue in all three voting events.
Even could count it as 3.5 if you include our representative electorate (the MPs) voting to enact Article 50.

And I presume that of all 3.5 events, they will be in favour of "getting brexit done".

Just out of interest then …. if there was another Brexit vote how do you think it would turn out? I appreciate that's a difficult question and admit my guess could only be that it would be largely the same as last time.

I think it may be just the same (or very similar numbers) to the result of the previous one.
Various polls have shown slight shifts from one side to the other (and vice versa) however opinion polls are generally paid to provide a result - I think on balance there will have been just as many that have shifted from one opinion to the other, but on the whole the vast majority will have stamped their view point in to stone, and another referendum would simply more or less render the same result as in 2016.

Which would simply bring us all back to the same position as we are now - but importantly, then having completely ruined the moral notion of democracy.

[Jinx]

oyster said:

But be clear, a general election is NOT, and will NEVER be, a poll of opinion on a single subject.

I respectfully disagree - sometimes a GE is a poll on the subject of getting rid of the damn incumbents (cica 1997).

[richie99]

I want to remain but not as much as I don't want a Marxist government elected with the intention of destroying the economy. Hence Brexit is of absolutely no relevance to me in this election.

With a different opposition party in place I could well rethink my vote because of Brexit but we are stuck with the utter disgrace that is the current labour party.

[Randy Winkman]

ZeroGroundZero said:

Randy Winkman said:

ZeroGroundZero said:

Agree with the OP, it is "in effect" a 3rd referendum on the brexit issue. Because brexit is the primary issue in all three voting events.
Even could count it as 3.5 if you include our representative electorate (the MPs) voting to enact Article 50.

And I presume that of all 3.5 events, they will be in favour of "getting brexit done".

Just out of interest then …. if there was another Brexit vote how do you think it would turn out? I appreciate that's a difficult question and admit my guess could only be that it would be largely the same as last time.

I think it may be just the same (or very similar numbers) to the result of the previous one.
Various polls have shown slight shifts from one side to the other (and vice versa) however opinion polls are generally paid to provide a result - I think on balance there will have been just as many that have shifted from one opinion to the other, but on the whole the vast majority will have stamped their view point in to stone, and another referendum would simply more or less render the same result as in 2016.

Which would simply bring us all back to the same position as we are now - but importantly, then having completely ruined the moral notion of democracy.

Cheers. Does that match your agreement with the opening post? LibDems aren't going to get anywhere near 50% in the GE.

[Bill]

There's been one referendum. The GE was/is about other things as well as how Brexit should be delivered.

I voted remain, but Tory at the last election as they seemed the best ( ) party to sort it.

[ORD]

The Brexiteers have been trying for 3 years and want another several years to cock it up.

But there is no point voting for the Lib Dems because they cannot form a government. So the suggestion that the election is a referendum on Brexit is absurd.