Boeing v Airbus
Discussion
Not looking good for Boeing at the moment.
1. Return to Max being in service is now scheduled for summer 2020 when it was supposed to be late 2019.
2. Max needs simulator training it seems
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-boeing-737max-t...
"High demand for 737 MAX simulators has led the Montreal-company and its rival TRU to produce simulators for customers they have yet to line up."
Note that TRU got royally slagged off by Boeing technical pilots over the term.
3. The FAA has had it's nose rubbed into the ground constantly since early 2019 and now has turned into a pitbull rather than a small cockapoo.
Even if you get past the FAA then you have to regulate with EASA and then the Chinese authorities who are the people who banned Max from flying first and also have a political axe to grind over good old Donald.
4. NMA now a new design from scratch after so much time and effort lost.
5. 777x engine issues ... but now flying .... tomorrow, due to weather ... silver lining on the cloud?
What do you think? I tossed my thoughts up there to see where the chaff and wheat lie.
1. Return to Max being in service is now scheduled for summer 2020 when it was supposed to be late 2019.
2. Max needs simulator training it seems
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-boeing-737max-t...
"High demand for 737 MAX simulators has led the Montreal-company and its rival TRU to produce simulators for customers they have yet to line up."
Note that TRU got royally slagged off by Boeing technical pilots over the term.
3. The FAA has had it's nose rubbed into the ground constantly since early 2019 and now has turned into a pitbull rather than a small cockapoo.
Even if you get past the FAA then you have to regulate with EASA and then the Chinese authorities who are the people who banned Max from flying first and also have a political axe to grind over good old Donald.
4. NMA now a new design from scratch after so much time and effort lost.
5. 777x engine issues ... but now flying .... tomorrow, due to weather ... silver lining on the cloud?
What do you think? I tossed my thoughts up there to see where the chaff and wheat lie.
Edited by Gandahar on Thursday 23 January 13:40
The US simply will not let Boeing fail. They will be determined to keep a large scale domestic aircraft manufacturer.
It might have to go bust and be revived somehow. It might not be called Boeing. But it'll be there.
Airbus are talking advantage of a few good calls right now. But they can't make too many A380 type mistakes for things to switch around.
It might have to go bust and be revived somehow. It might not be called Boeing. But it'll be there.
Airbus are talking advantage of a few good calls right now. But they can't make too many A380 type mistakes for things to switch around.
Airbus hardly without issues though...
Aggregating control across flight sticks. Air France Crash.
Automatic procedures recommending pumping fuel into holed wing to trim aircraft. Flight 32.
They do have an amazing stand-up bar on the 380 though - with free Jura whisky on Emirates
Designing such a complicated socio-technical system is bloody difficult and it's impossible to V&V all the design deficiencies out. At best you hope you've got the biggies and are left with a residual risk that is suitably small.
This will always be the case with any complex system.
Where it becomes unforgivable, is when you've been made aware of an issue that wasn't captured during V&V and it's commercially expedient to do nothing about it.
Aggregating control across flight sticks. Air France Crash.
Automatic procedures recommending pumping fuel into holed wing to trim aircraft. Flight 32.
They do have an amazing stand-up bar on the 380 though - with free Jura whisky on Emirates
Designing such a complicated socio-technical system is bloody difficult and it's impossible to V&V all the design deficiencies out. At best you hope you've got the biggies and are left with a residual risk that is suitably small.
This will always be the case with any complex system.
Where it becomes unforgivable, is when you've been made aware of an issue that wasn't captured during V&V and it's commercially expedient to do nothing about it.
They both suffer from a similar problem, the 737 and A320 are ready to be replaced, properly, but have been so successful, there are huge numbers of pilots around the world that are type rated for them.
If a proper replacement is launched, then they will need to re-rate so many pilots. It's the reason the Max was re-engineered version of the 737, and part of the reason why it failed.
This video is a good explanation of it, certainly better than I can do:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BfNEOfEGe3I
If a proper replacement is launched, then they will need to re-rate so many pilots. It's the reason the Max was re-engineered version of the 737, and part of the reason why it failed.
This video is a good explanation of it, certainly better than I can do:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BfNEOfEGe3I
ChocolateFrog said:
No one will pay for the mistakes.
Haven't they still got an order book that runs to years and 1000's of planes. Yes it might cost a few shareholders a little bit in the short term but it'll be back to maximizing profits in no time.
According to this Boeing made a total of -87 orders last year. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Competition_between_...Haven't they still got an order book that runs to years and 1000's of planes. Yes it might cost a few shareholders a little bit in the short term but it'll be back to maximizing profits in no time.
Orders switched between types (and presumably fewer of the new selection) and MAX orders being dropped.
Compared with 768 for Airbus.
Ok exceptional year but...it would appear order backlogs can shrink without planes being sent off the line.
(backlog Boeing 5625 of which 4585 are 737s, Airbus 7482, 6068 A320)
I've no idea how accurate those numbers are though or how volatile they have the ability to be.
ChocolateFrog said:
No one will pay for the mistakes.
Haven't they still got an order book that runs to years and 1000's of planes. Yes it might cost a few shareholders a little bit in the short term but it'll be back to maximizing profits in no time.
Yep. Boeing makes billions of dollars in profit per year (2017 - $8bn) and has multiple income streams, including parts and servicing, military, etc, and an order book for the next decade or so. The only reasons they are stopping manufacture of the Max is the amount of work required to get a plane which has been sat back into the air, and cash flow. It'll be certified again some time and the company will be fine.Haven't they still got an order book that runs to years and 1000's of planes. Yes it might cost a few shareholders a little bit in the short term but it'll be back to maximizing profits in no time.
Meanwhile Airbus have a nice opportunity to flog some A320 family planes while Boeing is down.
I'm sure that Boeing will survive, but they are in for a kicking.
Every customer who has not signed a contract for the max will put the boot in to achieve a better price. Everyone who has will put the boot in for late delivery.
777x will be looked at very closely.
Military are also not happy with some of their deliveries.
While the A320 basic design is getting on, the basic structure is sound, where as the 737 Max is aerodynamically flawed. The crux of the issue is with the new larger more efficient engines being mounted so forward. Stall recovery is normally power up nose down. The power up in the Max causes a massive pitch up which makes the stall worse. MCAS was the soloution, but flawed. What it needed was taller body gear to allow under wing engines. But that is a major redesign. Basically the A320 needed a face lift. The 737 needed to retire.... They called it wrong.
Every customer who has not signed a contract for the max will put the boot in to achieve a better price. Everyone who has will put the boot in for late delivery.
777x will be looked at very closely.
Military are also not happy with some of their deliveries.
While the A320 basic design is getting on, the basic structure is sound, where as the 737 Max is aerodynamically flawed. The crux of the issue is with the new larger more efficient engines being mounted so forward. Stall recovery is normally power up nose down. The power up in the Max causes a massive pitch up which makes the stall worse. MCAS was the soloution, but flawed. What it needed was taller body gear to allow under wing engines. But that is a major redesign. Basically the A320 needed a face lift. The 737 needed to retire.... They called it wrong.
https://www.theregister.co.uk/2020/01/08/boeing_73...
Found this a while back Blackout Bug: Boeing 737 cockpit screens go blank if pilots land on specific runways! Felt sorry for the 1st pilot to find out!
Found this a while back Blackout Bug: Boeing 737 cockpit screens go blank if pilots land on specific runways! Felt sorry for the 1st pilot to find out!
surveyor said:
The crux of the issue is with the new larger more efficient engines being mounted so forward. Stall recovery is normally power up nose down. The power up in the Max causes a massive pitch up which makes the stall worse. MCAS was the soloution, but flawed. What it needed was taller body gear to allow under wing engines. But that is a major redesign. Basically the A320 needed a face lift. The 737 needed to retire.... They called it wrong.
That’s not correct from my recollection.The relocated engines and their redesigned nacelles created a situation where, at high AoAs, they generated extra lift which made it easier for a pilot to pull toward the stall. This is an undesirable characteristic and one that wouldn’t be certified by the FAA. MCAS addressed this issue by rectifying the handling characteristic to make it behave more like other 737 variants i.e It becomes harder to pull to the stall as AoA increases.
Also, I’m pretty sure that stall recovery of the 737 would be nose down first before applying power as the pitch-power couple would create a further nose up movement if power was introduced first.
pushthebutton said:
surveyor said:
The crux of the issue is with the new larger more efficient engines being mounted so forward. Stall recovery is normally power up nose down. The power up in the Max causes a massive pitch up which makes the stall worse. MCAS was the soloution, but flawed. What it needed was taller body gear to allow under wing engines. But that is a major redesign. Basically the A320 needed a face lift. The 737 needed to retire.... They called it wrong.
That’s not correct from my recollection.The relocated engines and their redesigned nacelles created a situation where, at high AoAs, they generated extra lift which made it easier for a pilot to pull toward the stall. This is an undesirable characteristic and one that wouldn’t be certified by the FAA. MCAS addressed this issue by rectifying the handling characteristic to make it behave more like other 737 variants i.e It becomes harder to pull to the stall as AoA increases.
Also, I’m pretty sure that stall recovery of the 737 would be nose down first before applying power as the pitch-power couple would create a further nose up movement if power was introduced first.
No replacement for A320 on the horizon.
Just approved a higher rate for SA today and are incorporating new capacity for XLR.
XLR isn’t even live yet, we still have thousands of orders for the SA programme alone (appx 7 years work).
A350 is ramping up, A330 is still being build (242T in work) and EOL A380 will free up plenty of capacity, capex and real estate, very very positive at the moment!!!
Just approved a higher rate for SA today and are incorporating new capacity for XLR.
XLR isn’t even live yet, we still have thousands of orders for the SA programme alone (appx 7 years work).
A350 is ramping up, A330 is still being build (242T in work) and EOL A380 will free up plenty of capacity, capex and real estate, very very positive at the moment!!!
Boeing are touting around the banks looking for a $10bn loan...........so, it would seem that their cash flow has reduced to a trickle....
There would also be strong irony if after decades of Boeing b
hing about Airbus claiming unfair EU subsidies, if Boeing ended up needing to be bailed out by the US Govt......
There would also be strong irony if after decades of Boeing b
hing about Airbus claiming unfair EU subsidies, if Boeing ended up needing to be bailed out by the US Govt......Gassing Station | Boats, Planes & Trains | Top of Page | What's New | My Stuff