Tesla model 3 prices and used S prices

[richard at home]

A new model 3 with all the options, extended range version, not performance version, is under £50k new.

That money will get a 4 year old Model S 75D with 50k on the clock....

What am I missing? Doesn't that make the model 3 a bargain and the used S prices way over the top?

When used 3's start to become available, will used S prices tumble?

Is the S a much better car than the 3 - like a ford fiesta vs a mustang? Range and performance figures are not that different.

[squirejo]

My answer is that I bought a model 3. Which is also usefully smaller on the (London) road whilst amply large inside for our needs.

[Biggles111]

I think the answer is that both are a good buy, if you're in that market. They are as you note different cars - a Model 3 is arguably a better fit for the UK's roads, but would not work for me as we are a family of 5; the S gives us plenty of space for all of us plus more luggage space than for example an E class estate, and is a good cruiser - we drove 5,000km to and from Norway last summer, 5-up, including some high speed bits on autobahns, no problem.
One or two 75D's showing up for low 40's now, even at Tesla https://www.tesla.com/en_GB/used/5YJSB7E23GF153294...

The 3 does make good use of the space though and will fit parking spaces more easily, I would say if it fits you go for that and you won't be disappointed, but if you value a hatchback boot and folding seats then go for an S or wait a year or so for the Model Y to arrive - that is the car that I think will have a big impact on the UK market.

Edited by Biggles111 on Tuesday 4th February 13:17

Edited by Biggles111 on Tuesday 4th February 13:18

[Dave Hedgehog]

S is a big wafty ultra fast barge

3 is a much more focused driving machine

[gangzoom]

richard at home said:

What am I missing? Doesn't that make the model 3 a bargain and the used S prices way over the top?

When used 3's start to become available, will used S prices tumble?

The used prices of the S/X has stayed pretty high despite the 3 now been available, I think it comes down to supply and demand.

By next year this time I suspect there will be far more used 3s on the market than the S or X, hardly anyone is buying a brand new S/X these days so supply is always going to be low where as the 3 volumes will keep going up and up.

There will always be people who want a S over a 3, so as long as the demand is there and the supply is restrained prices will remain stable.

[richard at home]

The non hatch boot of the model 3 has scuppered it for me. Maybe wait for the Y or we'll look at used S. (Dog owner!)

[ESD1711]

I couldnt take to the Model 3's general 'look' at first. But its growing on me I must admit..... except fro the wheels. I cannot warm to those at all.

The costs still remain high in general though, particularly given we're (at least close to being) on the verge of this technology becoming 'mainstream' for want of a better phrase.

At some point, buying a Tesla at their current high price is going to be a risky gamble to take as inevitably the prices WILL come down to suit the needs of the masses.

[jay2000]

Buy 50 tesla shares instead and this time next year, it will be worth 2 model y

[richard at home]

ESD1711 said:

I couldnt take to the Model 3's general 'look' at first. But its growing on me I must admit..... except fro the wheels. I cannot warm to those at all.

The costs still remain high in general though, particularly given we're (at least close to being) on the verge of this technology becoming 'mainstream' for want of a better phrase.

At some point, buying a Tesla at their current high price is going to be a risky gamble to take as inevitably the prices WILL come down to suit the needs of the masses.

Indeed! I think that there will be a new battery technology which will make all 'current' lithium ion based cars obsolete... unless there is a cartel that prevents it... (but I don't think Musk is that sort of a guy)

It will be interesting to see what happens to year old 3 prices and 5 year old S prices during 2020.

[Heres Johnny]

It’s horses for courses. It’s like looking at a 3 series BMW and 5 series, the MS has air suspension, is bigger, arts along, if you go Performance is noticeably faster than any M3 etc The MS also looks better.

If you want to study depreciation curves and value for money, check out https://tesla-info.com/for-sale.php where the detail pages of each car show the depreciation curve for up to 2 years.

The bargain cars in my opinion are private sale early facelift MS from late 2016/early 2017. Unlimited free supercharging, zero VED, a little warranty left on bits and bobs, 4 years on motors and bricked battery. don’t have 85 battery issues, early depreciation done.

[richard at home]

Heres Johnny said:

It’s horses for courses. It’s like looking at a 3 series BMW and 5 series, the MS has air suspension, is bigger, arts along, if you go Performance is noticeably faster than any M3 etc The MS also looks better.

If you want to study depreciation curves and value for money, check out https://tesla-info.com/for-sale.php where the detail pages of each car show the depreciation curve for up to 2 years.

The bargain cars in my opinion are private sale early facelift MS from late 2016/early 2017. Unlimited free supercharging, zero VED, a little warranty left on bits and bobs, 4 years on motors and bricked battery. don’t have 85 battery issues, early depreciation done.

Thanks Johnny, There is a bit of a minefield with different models of S to choose from. Any issues with a S E 70D from 2015, with 70k on it? How wil I know what state the battery is in? From what I have ready the battery is good for well over 100k but not sure if this assume optimal charging? Do batteries like long trips, high current charges or short trips and lots of top ups?

[Fastlane]

richard at home said:

The non hatch boot of the model 3 has scuppered it for me. Maybe wait for the Y or we'll look at used S. (Dog owner!)

I have a large(ish) dog and was worried about this with an M3 and so was looking at IPace and Etron. In the end I much preferred the M3P and so just bought a rear seat "hammock" and the dog is quite happy on that, even after muddy walks. It can also be split so you can still carry 2 back seat passengers if you want to. Just a thought...

[Heres Johnny]

richard at home said:

Thanks Johnny, There is a bit of a minefield with different models of S to choose from. Any issues with a S E 70D from 2015, with 70k on it? How wil I know what state the battery is in? From what I have ready the battery is good for well over 100k but not sure if this assume optimal charging? Do batteries like long trips, high current charges or short trips and lots of top ups?

Hi - a 2015 70D could have the dreaded batterygate and chargegate. Its not totally clear if car that are going to get it will already have it, but you can do a rough check for the battery issue following the instructions here:

https://tesla-info.com/blog/battery-degradation.ph...

I'm pretty sure your reference "new" available capacity would be 65.9kwh and anything over 60 being reasonable, anything below that starts to get a bit iffy. But the battery ideally needs to be warm to do the test so if youy're looking at a car then make a note of the relevant numbers after a drive.

The batteries actually much prefer long journeys but I've not really heard of any concerns over long v short other than short tripes tend to be a bit more battery hungry especially in the cold. Rapid/supercharging isn't great for the car, Tesla have slowed it down where it starts to be a worry on a car which can be annoying for owners. Slow charging is better. The other consideration is how high people have charged the battery to, A 2015 70 is a software locked 75 battery so in reality it can not be charged to 100% of the battery even if its to 100% for the software (ithe car software won't let the owner use that last bit) so it stands a better chance than most of being good. But the best conditions for the car are keeping the battery between 30 and 70% and driving 30 mile leasurely trips to work and back.

I presume you know the basic naming convention of the number being a proxy for the battery size (although not very accurately), a Pxx without a D is an old school performance rear wheel drive, an xxD is a all wheel drive car with the front and rear motors being the same. and a PxxD is a all wheel drive performance where the rear motor is much bigger. On a 2015 car it should have autopilot 1 hardware fitted (you can tell from the little windows below the front numberplate and it won't have a big old school speedo type dial on the dash) and if its not enabled (and it might not as the software was only released around sept of that year despite the hardware being on the car for some time) Tesla may activate it for a fee.

There's loads more written on tesla-info.com to try and help

[richard at home]

Heres Johnny said:

Hi - a 2015 70D could have the dreaded batterygate and chargegate. Its not totally clear if car that are going to get it will already have it, but you can do a rough check for the battery issue following the instructions here:

https://tesla-info.com/blog/battery-degradation.ph...

I'm pretty sure your reference "new" available capacity would be 65.9kwh and anything over 60 being reasonable, anything below that starts to get a bit iffy. But the battery ideally needs to be warm to do the test so if youy're looking at a car then make a note of the relevant numbers after a drive.

The batteries actually much prefer long journeys but I've not really heard of any concerns over long v short other than short tripes tend to be a bit more battery hungry especially in the cold. Rapid/supercharging isn't great for the car, Tesla have slowed it down where it starts to be a worry on a car which can be annoying for owners. Slow charging is better. The other consideration is how high people have charged the battery to, A 2015 70 is a software locked 75 battery so in reality it can not be charged to 100% of the battery even if its to 100% for the software (ithe car software won't let the owner use that last bit) so it stands a better chance than most of being good. But the best conditions for the car are keeping the battery between 30 and 70% and driving 30 mile leasurely trips to work and back.

I presume you know the basic naming convention of the number being a proxy for the battery size (although not very accurately), a Pxx without a D is an old school performance rear wheel drive, an xxD is a all wheel drive car with the front and rear motors being the same. and a PxxD is a all wheel drive performance where the rear motor is much bigger. On a 2015 car it should have autopilot 1 hardware fitted (you can tell from the little windows below the front numberplate and it won't have a big old school speedo type dial on the dash) and if its not enabled (and it might not as the software was only released around sept of that year despite the hardware being on the car for some time) Tesla may activate it for a fee.

There's loads more written on tesla-info.com to try and help

Thanks Johnny, great info! Shame you can't tow with an S. Will probably have to wait for X's to get cheaper...

[granada203028]

richard at home said:

Indeed! I think that there will be a new battery technology which will make all 'current' lithium ion based cars obsolete... unless there is a cartel that prevents it... (but I don't think Musk is that sort of a guy)

It will be interesting to see what happens to year old 3 prices and 5 year old S prices during 2020.

I disagree on battery technology. Do not be fooled by the rapid advances in semiconductors, mobile computing & coms, displays etc. Batteries are much more difficult nut to crack. Sony invented lithium ion in the mid 1990s and it was 20 years before cars started to use them with any significance. Before that Nickel Cadmium and Lead Acid was it for a century. Technology will be evolutionary not revolutionary, prices and availability will only improve slowly.

[RobDickinson]

ESD1711 said:

At some point, buying a Tesla at their current high price is going to be a risky gamble to take as inevitably the prices WILL come down to suit the needs of the masses.

BMW/Daimler dont drop their price ranges for each model why should tesla? We'll likely see a smaller polo/golf sized tesla in the future, but history has shown the base price of the models wont change that much.

richard at home said:

Indeed! I think that there will be a new battery technology which will make all 'current' lithium ion based cars obsolete... unless there is a cartel that prevents it... (but I don't think Musk is that sort of a guy)

It will be interesting to see what happens to year old 3 prices and 5 year old S prices during 2020.

If/when better battery tech comes out it wont make the current cars perform any worse, everyone buying a tesla (or indeed any car) know there will be a better model available soon.. But yes we are likelyt to see some rapid changes over the next 10-15 years.

A model 3 in 2025 might have 400-500 miles range and faster charging speeds, might be a bit quicker and a bit lighter. Nothing there will be substantial even with a big change in battery tech.