COVID-19 - how long will the consensus last?
Discussion
Interesting will the current lockdown, just a week in. At the weekend some papers were already speculating on how long people would be happy to support the lockdown. Once the damage to businesses starts to bite, people can't stand being cooped-up for days on end and mental health starts to suffer, will current support for the lockdown start to fragment? We police in this country by consensus, we don't have the police numbers like France or Italy to impose widespread lockdown against a widespread lack of support of civil disobedience.
The government yesterday was talking about another six months, they must know that they only have one, two months max to ramp-up the NHS to cope with Covid-19 and use the lockdown as time to do this before their ability to impose it breaks down.
Do people agree?
The government yesterday was talking about another six months, they must know that they only have one, two months max to ramp-up the NHS to cope with Covid-19 and use the lockdown as time to do this before their ability to impose it breaks down.
Do people agree?
From the feedback I'm getting from family members in Italy the more and more people who die the more people will comply with whatever the govt throws at them.
The latest is a tight clampdown where people can't move 200m from their house bar one person walking to their nearest store.
My brother in law in a senior police officer. He was easy going and pragmatic to begin with. We has seen a colleague aged 47 and no underlying health issues die and a number of friends in their 40s and 50s in hospital requiring hard and unpleasant interventions to survive. Two weeks ago he was supervising the filling of churches with empty coffins. This week he is supervising the loading of full coffins into army lorries.
Most people are doing what they are told. Those that aren't are dealing with the likes of my Brother In Law who is very motivated and has a gun.
The latest is a tight clampdown where people can't move 200m from their house bar one person walking to their nearest store.
My brother in law in a senior police officer. He was easy going and pragmatic to begin with. We has seen a colleague aged 47 and no underlying health issues die and a number of friends in their 40s and 50s in hospital requiring hard and unpleasant interventions to survive. Two weeks ago he was supervising the filling of churches with empty coffins. This week he is supervising the loading of full coffins into army lorries.
Most people are doing what they are told. Those that aren't are dealing with the likes of my Brother In Law who is very motivated and has a gun.
I think public opinion will start to change as societal and economic impacts start to come to fore. The Wuhan Flu has all happened so quickly that most people still have plenty good will and a sense of community spirit, along with some money to tide them over for now. As time progresses, both will start to wane..
People will also start to become a little numb to the death and hospitalisation numbers due to the constant media barrage. This wont help keep people onside longer term.
Terrible as it is for people affected, if the 'doomsday' scenario doesn't appear (finger crossed) and if the numbers of deaths and further infections starts to peak in the next couple of weeks say, and drops off, along with significant new data from anti-body testing that indicates that death rates are not as high as suspected (many are coming round to this theory, and trickles of data from elsewhere are slowly beginning to back this theory up), then I think public opinion will inevitably change to one less paranoid of the virus and one more focused on more immediate concerns of livelihoods and getting back a greater sense of freedom..
People will also start to become a little numb to the death and hospitalisation numbers due to the constant media barrage. This wont help keep people onside longer term.
Terrible as it is for people affected, if the 'doomsday' scenario doesn't appear (finger crossed) and if the numbers of deaths and further infections starts to peak in the next couple of weeks say, and drops off, along with significant new data from anti-body testing that indicates that death rates are not as high as suspected (many are coming round to this theory, and trickles of data from elsewhere are slowly beginning to back this theory up), then I think public opinion will inevitably change to one less paranoid of the virus and one more focused on more immediate concerns of livelihoods and getting back a greater sense of freedom..
Edited by gofasterrosssco on Tuesday 31st March 13:29
Tannedbaldhead said:
From the feedback I'm getting from family members in Italy the more and more people who die the more people will comply with whatever the govt throws at them.
The latest is a tight clampdown where people can't move 200m from their house bar one person walking to their nearest store.
My brother in law in a senior police officer. He was easy going and pragmatic to begin with. We has seen a colleague aged 47 and no underlying health issues die and a number of friends in their 40s and 50s in hospital requiring hard and unpleasant interventions to survive. Two weeks ago he was supervising the filling of churches with empty coffins. This week he is supervising the loading of full coffins into army lorries.
Most people are doing what they are told. Those that aren't are dealing with the likes of my Brother In Law who is very motivated and has a gun.
I've no view either way on the main question in the opening post. But I do agree your point about hearing about people they know, or are at least connected to, die. The latest is a tight clampdown where people can't move 200m from their house bar one person walking to their nearest store.
My brother in law in a senior police officer. He was easy going and pragmatic to begin with. We has seen a colleague aged 47 and no underlying health issues die and a number of friends in their 40s and 50s in hospital requiring hard and unpleasant interventions to survive. Two weeks ago he was supervising the filling of churches with empty coffins. This week he is supervising the loading of full coffins into army lorries.
Most people are doing what they are told. Those that aren't are dealing with the likes of my Brother In Law who is very motivated and has a gun.
Testing is key.
It will be impossible to enforce this if (say) 20% of the country has actually had it.
Those who have had it will see no practical reason why they can’t get on with life and they’d be right. The remaining ‘Non-vulnerable’ would be trying hard to get it as they could join the 20%.
It will be impossible to enforce this if (say) 20% of the country has actually had it.
Those who have had it will see no practical reason why they can’t get on with life and they’d be right. The remaining ‘Non-vulnerable’ would be trying hard to get it as they could join the 20%.
rxe said:
Testing is key.
It will be impossible to enforce this if (say) 20% of the country has actually had it.
Those who have had it will see no practical reason why they can’t get on with life and they’d be right. The remaining ‘Non-vulnerable’ would be trying hard to get it as they could join the 20%.
Where is the evidence to suggest you somehow become immune to it once you have it? It will be impossible to enforce this if (say) 20% of the country has actually had it.
Those who have had it will see no practical reason why they can’t get on with life and they’d be right. The remaining ‘Non-vulnerable’ would be trying hard to get it as they could join the 20%.
craigjm said:
rxe said:
Testing is key.
It will be impossible to enforce this if (say) 20% of the country has actually had it.
Those who have had it will see no practical reason why they can’t get on with life and they’d be right. The remaining ‘Non-vulnerable’ would be trying hard to get it as they could join the 20%.
Where is the evidence to suggest you somehow become immune to it once you have it? It will be impossible to enforce this if (say) 20% of the country has actually had it.
Those who have had it will see no practical reason why they can’t get on with life and they’d be right. The remaining ‘Non-vulnerable’ would be trying hard to get it as they could join the 20%.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.express.co.uk/new...
Tannedbaldhead said:
craigjm said:
rxe said:
Testing is key.
It will be impossible to enforce this if (say) 20% of the country has actually had it.
Those who have had it will see no practical reason why they can’t get on with life and they’d be right. The remaining ‘Non-vulnerable’ would be trying hard to get it as they could join the 20%.
Where is the evidence to suggest you somehow become immune to it once you have it? It will be impossible to enforce this if (say) 20% of the country has actually had it.
Those who have had it will see no practical reason why they can’t get on with life and they’d be right. The remaining ‘Non-vulnerable’ would be trying hard to get it as they could join the 20%.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.express.co.uk/new...
JagLover said:
Troubleatmill said:
The ratio of deaths against reported cases is quite scary.
That is overwhelmingly due to deficiencies in testing. The vast majority with symptoms aren't getting tested and data has shown that many people contract the virus but do not even develop symptoms.Then there are all the asymptomatic and/or those with mild symptoms.
In Italy the numbers are getting better in terms of new cases, considering also that the testing numbers increased.
But the fear that terminating lockdown may reverse the trend is high.
Probably after easter the government will at least let the factories reopen...an industrial shutdown like this will simply destory the already weak Italy. We are talking about a damage of 800 billions a year.
But the fear that terminating lockdown may reverse the trend is high.
Probably after easter the government will at least let the factories reopen...an industrial shutdown like this will simply destory the already weak Italy. We are talking about a damage of 800 billions a year.
People need to realise that lock down is essential for stopping many more people than need be from getting the virus and as such will save many from death. This simple fact should now be embedded within everyone's rationale.
A "stay at home" rule should be one of the simplest things that people can do. Its not like we are being asked/ordered to the front line like generations before us, instead we are being asked to comfortably sit at home, either working from home or even being paid by the government to sit in limbo for a while. Very much a first world problem in many ways.
Not like what Africa and India are about to go through where a lock down will likely mean you may starve.
If people start to remove their consent and act against the national interest then they are nothing more than impatient, irresponsible, immature petulant individuals who have the mindset of "f'you I don't care who I infect or how many die".
(apologies for the rant - a family member is in the NHS and is facing too many people who seemingly do not have the mental capacity to grasp the seriousness of the situation we are in)
A "stay at home" rule should be one of the simplest things that people can do. Its not like we are being asked/ordered to the front line like generations before us, instead we are being asked to comfortably sit at home, either working from home or even being paid by the government to sit in limbo for a while. Very much a first world problem in many ways.
Not like what Africa and India are about to go through where a lock down will likely mean you may starve.
If people start to remove their consent and act against the national interest then they are nothing more than impatient, irresponsible, immature petulant individuals who have the mindset of "f'you I don't care who I infect or how many die".
(apologies for the rant - a family member is in the NHS and is facing too many people who seemingly do not have the mental capacity to grasp the seriousness of the situation we are in)
The problem will come when people run out of money.
Despite the government promises of benefits, loans, grants, mortgage holidays, etc. From my experience it is not possible to contact the relevant government department or a bank to obtain this money. Phone lines are permanently engaged. I spent 2 hours in a phone queue to my bank and gave up.
The PM/Chancellor may announce these measures but the offices cannot deal with the enquiries.
The media has reported that retail shop tenants are not paying their rents.
I can see "Joe Public" not paying their council tax and businesses not paying their business rates.
As most businesses are closed they are not taking any money to pay their outgoings.
Despite the government promises of benefits, loans, grants, mortgage holidays, etc. From my experience it is not possible to contact the relevant government department or a bank to obtain this money. Phone lines are permanently engaged. I spent 2 hours in a phone queue to my bank and gave up.
The PM/Chancellor may announce these measures but the offices cannot deal with the enquiries.
The media has reported that retail shop tenants are not paying their rents.
I can see "Joe Public" not paying their council tax and businesses not paying their business rates.
As most businesses are closed they are not taking any money to pay their outgoings.
Jagmanv12 said:
The problem will come when people run out of money.
Despite the government promises of benefits, loans, grants, mortgage holidays, etc. From my experience it is not possible to contact the relevant government department or a bank to obtain this money. Phone lines are permanently engaged. I spent 2 hours in a phone queue to my bank and gave up.
The PM/Chancellor may announce these measures but the offices cannot deal with the enquiries.
The media has reported that retail shop tenants are not paying their rents.
I can see "Joe Public" not paying their council tax and businesses not paying their business rates.
As most businesses are closed they are not taking any money to pay their outgoings.
Our bank, who lend to landlords of household names, tells me that blue chip companies aren't paying their rents. Just because.Despite the government promises of benefits, loans, grants, mortgage holidays, etc. From my experience it is not possible to contact the relevant government department or a bank to obtain this money. Phone lines are permanently engaged. I spent 2 hours in a phone queue to my bank and gave up.
The PM/Chancellor may announce these measures but the offices cannot deal with the enquiries.
The media has reported that retail shop tenants are not paying their rents.
I can see "Joe Public" not paying their council tax and businesses not paying their business rates.
As most businesses are closed they are not taking any money to pay their outgoings.
If the number of dead is less than 100,000 in this country then people of working age will question whether it was worth writing off the next two decades economically (thus likely killing more in the long run) to save people who generally would have died at some point soon anyway.
The younger generation realising that they are more likely to be stabbed to death than die or even get seriously ill will start getting restless as soon as it gets warmer.
The younger generation realising that they are more likely to be stabbed to death than die or even get seriously ill will start getting restless as soon as it gets warmer.
untakenname said:
If the number of dead is less than 100,000 in this country then people of working age will question whether it was worth writing off the next two decades economically (thus likely killing more in the long run) to save people who generally would have died at some point soon anyway.
The younger generation realising that they are more likely to be stabbed to death than die or even get seriously ill will start getting restless as soon as it gets warmer.
Now I am now expert but I am fairly sure that the chances of you getting stabbed to death are far lower than you dying of COVID19....500 plus people yesterday in fact died of this my guess is maybe 1 person was stabbed to death in the UK.The younger generation realising that they are more likely to be stabbed to death than die or even get seriously ill will start getting restless as soon as it gets warmer.
Also if we don't do this now many more people will die some of whom will run business these young people may have worked at.
Again I am no expert but I am fairly sure dead company owners don't hire new staff.
If your confused about this just look at what earlier posters have said re NHS staff dealing with stupid people
Troubleatmill said:
The ratio of deaths against reported cases is quite scary.
Except there are many who are undiagnosed and even untested. Thus the true numbers appear to be significantly better than is being reported. In addition (I have firm evidence of this yet) deaths where the victim had corona, regardless of cause (let us say cancer) is being recorded as Corona thus inflating the figures. A cynic would question why a Govt with extreme powers might want to increase the purported mortality rates
Jagmanv12 said:
The problem will come when people run out of money.
Despite the government promises of benefits, loans, grants, mortgage holidays, etc. From my experience it is not possible to contact the relevant government department or a bank to obtain this money. Phone lines are permanently engaged. I spent 2 hours in a phone queue to my bank and gave up.
The PM/Chancellor may announce these measures but the offices cannot deal with the enquiries.
The media has reported that retail shop tenants are not paying their rents.
I can see "Joe Public" not paying their council tax and businesses not paying their business rates.
As most businesses are closed they are not taking any money to pay their outgoings.
You're absolutely right although the big problems will start with the self employed. The government won't make hundreds of thousands of civil servants redundant. They'll be working from home on full pay or on long term sick leave, as will all those on 80% for as long as the government pick up the tab.Despite the government promises of benefits, loans, grants, mortgage holidays, etc. From my experience it is not possible to contact the relevant government department or a bank to obtain this money. Phone lines are permanently engaged. I spent 2 hours in a phone queue to my bank and gave up.
The PM/Chancellor may announce these measures but the offices cannot deal with the enquiries.
The media has reported that retail shop tenants are not paying their rents.
I can see "Joe Public" not paying their council tax and businesses not paying their business rates.
As most businesses are closed they are not taking any money to pay their outgoings.
But in three months if things don't change there will be millions of self employed who are penniless. Then it will really kick off.
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