Values of Everything.......
Discussion
Hi All,
Before anybody thinks "not this question again", I'm not referring to any specific make or model. I'm just curious to see what other peoples thoughts are on general prestige / supercar values, and what this current climate is going to do to that (if anything) longer term.
For what it's worth, my own thoughts are that obviously the market is currently frozen, and I fail to see that when things begin to return to some degree of normality, that people are going to be willing to pay what some people are currently asking. With the exception of the very well off, I guess (and it is a guess) that a majority of buyers for things such as AML, Porsche, Ferrari and McLaren are probably in the "doing well" bracket. People that either own businesses or are at a fairly senior level within their chosen career. For many, the forced lock down and frozen global economy isn't going to have done them any favours. I also think the current situation will have a longer term impact in that it may make people start to think more carefully about these big ticket, and largely non-essential purchases. After all, 3 months ago the world would have said a global physical and economic lock down was impossible. Clearly that's proven not to be the case, so there will always be the possibility of it happening again, and as a result I think some will want to be in a better position that they currently find themselves in.
I believe that the continued roll out of "hyper cars" such as La Ferrari, Vulcan, P1 etc has reached saturation point. There are only a certain number of people who can and want to spend £m's on a single car, and I bet a large percentage of new sales went to people who were hoping to flip for a profit. If those people have to sell for a loss, then once bitten twice shy and all that...........
I think classic vehicles may be in for an even bigger (albeit overdue) correction. We've all discussed before how the younger generation aren't really into 50,'s 60,s and 70's cars, and if they're not now, then they never will be. The buyers for this market are our generations. I'm early 40's, and I doubt that there are may 30 year olds lusting after a DB5, or 288 GTO, so that in turn will purely through natural attrition if nothing else, create a lower demand. In addition, I believe that a lot of classic cars these days are bought by investors and not enthusiasts. They're sat in secure storage never seeing the light of day, on the hope that the value will rise and they can be moved on. These types of market usually require a significant event to sway them, and we're in the middle of the biggest significant event since WW2.
I know the world works on supply and demand, but that demand is based on people both having the means to purchase, but also the desire. One thing I do know, is that I wouldn't want to be highly leveraged on something that cost hundreds of thousands (some YouTube people), or sitting on a showroom full of exotics that all owed me money right now, as I think when the dust settles there's going to be some buyers playing serious hardball with a take it or leave it approach.
Of course, the flip side of this (assuming I'm correct and not talking total b
ks), is that some people out there will manage to get into something that previously wasn't an option.
Anyway, just thought i'd throw my opinion out there, so would be interesting see other peoples take too.
Have a great day everyone, and stay safe
Before anybody thinks "not this question again", I'm not referring to any specific make or model. I'm just curious to see what other peoples thoughts are on general prestige / supercar values, and what this current climate is going to do to that (if anything) longer term.
For what it's worth, my own thoughts are that obviously the market is currently frozen, and I fail to see that when things begin to return to some degree of normality, that people are going to be willing to pay what some people are currently asking. With the exception of the very well off, I guess (and it is a guess) that a majority of buyers for things such as AML, Porsche, Ferrari and McLaren are probably in the "doing well" bracket. People that either own businesses or are at a fairly senior level within their chosen career. For many, the forced lock down and frozen global economy isn't going to have done them any favours. I also think the current situation will have a longer term impact in that it may make people start to think more carefully about these big ticket, and largely non-essential purchases. After all, 3 months ago the world would have said a global physical and economic lock down was impossible. Clearly that's proven not to be the case, so there will always be the possibility of it happening again, and as a result I think some will want to be in a better position that they currently find themselves in.
I believe that the continued roll out of "hyper cars" such as La Ferrari, Vulcan, P1 etc has reached saturation point. There are only a certain number of people who can and want to spend £m's on a single car, and I bet a large percentage of new sales went to people who were hoping to flip for a profit. If those people have to sell for a loss, then once bitten twice shy and all that...........
I think classic vehicles may be in for an even bigger (albeit overdue) correction. We've all discussed before how the younger generation aren't really into 50,'s 60,s and 70's cars, and if they're not now, then they never will be. The buyers for this market are our generations. I'm early 40's, and I doubt that there are may 30 year olds lusting after a DB5, or 288 GTO, so that in turn will purely through natural attrition if nothing else, create a lower demand. In addition, I believe that a lot of classic cars these days are bought by investors and not enthusiasts. They're sat in secure storage never seeing the light of day, on the hope that the value will rise and they can be moved on. These types of market usually require a significant event to sway them, and we're in the middle of the biggest significant event since WW2.
I know the world works on supply and demand, but that demand is based on people both having the means to purchase, but also the desire. One thing I do know, is that I wouldn't want to be highly leveraged on something that cost hundreds of thousands (some YouTube people), or sitting on a showroom full of exotics that all owed me money right now, as I think when the dust settles there's going to be some buyers playing serious hardball with a take it or leave it approach.
Of course, the flip side of this (assuming I'm correct and not talking total b
ks), is that some people out there will manage to get into something that previously wasn't an option.Anyway, just thought i'd throw my opinion out there, so would be interesting see other peoples take too.
Have a great day everyone, and stay safe
Sadly, I think your reasoning is pretty sound.
I inherited a love of sports/performance cars from my father but neither of my boys are particularly interested despite the fact that I've had a variety of (what I think) were desirable 'toys' over the years.
We were lucky to grow up with cars that didn't drive themselves.
I inherited a love of sports/performance cars from my father but neither of my boys are particularly interested despite the fact that I've had a variety of (what I think) were desirable 'toys' over the years.
We were lucky to grow up with cars that didn't drive themselves.
Depends on what "Values" you are thinking of, is it monetary value, sentimental value or any other value that you want to call it. Yes there may be a correction of the monetary values but not everyone buys for that reason so i think many who buy for reasons other than monetary it wont make the slightest bit of difference.
I have a very rare `90`s "modern classic" and its something i have lusted after for years, since they came on the market until 5 years ago when i was able to get my hands on one, Ive done loads of work and spent quite a bit on it to bring it up to a good original standard. I know its value today, or the type of money theyre going for but theres no way i would ever sell it, nor would i be concerned if the value dropped just because of this pandemic.
I have a very rare `90`s "modern classic" and its something i have lusted after for years, since they came on the market until 5 years ago when i was able to get my hands on one, Ive done loads of work and spent quite a bit on it to bring it up to a good original standard. I know its value today, or the type of money theyre going for but theres no way i would ever sell it, nor would i be concerned if the value dropped just because of this pandemic.
phumy said:
Depends on what "Values" you are thinking of, is it monetary value, sentimental value or any other value that you want to call it. Yes there may be a correction of the monetary values but not everyone buys for that reason so i think many who buy for reasons other than monetary it wont make the slightest bit of difference.
I have a very rare `90`s "modern classic" and its something i have lusted after for years, since they came on the market until 5 years ago when i was able to get my hands on one, Ive done loads of work and spent quite a bit on it to bring it up to a good original standard. I know its value today, or the type of money theyre going for but theres no way i would ever sell it, nor would i be concerned if the value dropped just because of this pandemic.
Curious to know what it is!I have a very rare `90`s "modern classic" and its something i have lusted after for years, since they came on the market until 5 years ago when i was able to get my hands on one, Ive done loads of work and spent quite a bit on it to bring it up to a good original standard. I know its value today, or the type of money theyre going for but theres no way i would ever sell it, nor would i be concerned if the value dropped just because of this pandemic.
Interesting post. I'd love a crystal ball right now, as I think the longer this situation continues the more people are realising it's not a temporary economic blip, and we realistically could head into a depression. Never before have people been unable to physically go to work, or really leave the house, resulting in everything just stopping.
I think, unfortunately, that some of the hardest hit globally are going to be the 'well off' and target customers for luxury goods like supercars. In a very simplistic UK view, the 'average' worker on an 'average' wage has likely been furloughed if not working from home, so has perhaps lost 20% of their salary but no longer has commuting costs and can't spend anything on leisure activities, therefore is hopefully riding it out alright. On the flip side, the guy who owns a couple of [insert local retail/hospitality businesses] and a couple of BTL's has seen his businesses forced to close, perhaps rent not being paid on the BTL's and the government support won't be anywhere near his earnings previous to this. This is also the type of person to have an expensive car, perhaps on a large monthly payment, along with a sizeable mortgage that will be sweating right now, especially if they went into this already highly geared. The same goes for senior managers/execs, who may well have been furloughed and the £2.5k government earnings contributions won't nearly cover their usual salary, assuming the employer does not top this up.
As the OP says, even if cheap finance is made available after the immediate crisis to try and stimulate demand, how many will have had their fingers burned badly enough to not want to risk committing to a large monthly payment again? How many people who stretched to the new Vantage deals are now worrying/struggling with the monthly payment, even though it represented fantastic value for the car at the time?
I do wonder if we'll see any 'fire sale' items as those that are hard hit try and liquidate assets to stay afloat. I've seen the reports elsewhere across the forums about WBAC values tanking and would imagine it's nearly impossible to privately sell an expensive car for cash either now or any time over the next few months. This will no doubt drag market values down, and makes me really thankful that I no longer own a car. The finance company behind my Vantage deal are going to be far more exposed to the artificially high GFV than even we first thought!
I guess on the flip side most worldwide car production has been halted, so there will also be a big wait for new cars once things start opening up. Perhaps this will bolster prices on the used market somewhat, as people cancel their new lease order and instead buy used? Toyota near me in Derby shut down early in the pandemic, and I'm sure they manufacture around 1k cars per day at that plant alone. What do we reckon a 2 month full shutdown will do to lead times?!
I think, unfortunately, that some of the hardest hit globally are going to be the 'well off' and target customers for luxury goods like supercars. In a very simplistic UK view, the 'average' worker on an 'average' wage has likely been furloughed if not working from home, so has perhaps lost 20% of their salary but no longer has commuting costs and can't spend anything on leisure activities, therefore is hopefully riding it out alright. On the flip side, the guy who owns a couple of [insert local retail/hospitality businesses] and a couple of BTL's has seen his businesses forced to close, perhaps rent not being paid on the BTL's and the government support won't be anywhere near his earnings previous to this. This is also the type of person to have an expensive car, perhaps on a large monthly payment, along with a sizeable mortgage that will be sweating right now, especially if they went into this already highly geared. The same goes for senior managers/execs, who may well have been furloughed and the £2.5k government earnings contributions won't nearly cover their usual salary, assuming the employer does not top this up.
As the OP says, even if cheap finance is made available after the immediate crisis to try and stimulate demand, how many will have had their fingers burned badly enough to not want to risk committing to a large monthly payment again? How many people who stretched to the new Vantage deals are now worrying/struggling with the monthly payment, even though it represented fantastic value for the car at the time?
I do wonder if we'll see any 'fire sale' items as those that are hard hit try and liquidate assets to stay afloat. I've seen the reports elsewhere across the forums about WBAC values tanking and would imagine it's nearly impossible to privately sell an expensive car for cash either now or any time over the next few months. This will no doubt drag market values down, and makes me really thankful that I no longer own a car. The finance company behind my Vantage deal are going to be far more exposed to the artificially high GFV than even we first thought!
I guess on the flip side most worldwide car production has been halted, so there will also be a big wait for new cars once things start opening up. Perhaps this will bolster prices on the used market somewhat, as people cancel their new lease order and instead buy used? Toyota near me in Derby shut down early in the pandemic, and I'm sure they manufacture around 1k cars per day at that plant alone. What do we reckon a 2 month full shutdown will do to lead times?!
Audi RS2 I`m guessing.
Regarding the original sentiments of Big Ry`s post, I too am curious as to the outcome of all this. There is no doubt in my mind that a global recession is unavoidable, and many who are hocked up on finance deals may find it difficult to hang onto their acquisitions, while also struggling to justify selling in a deflated or saturated market. In Switzerland there are currently more than 120 V8 Vantages for sale on one particular website, the numbers rocketing up in recent weeks, and I`ve never seen it anywhere close to that high before.
In the classic market I think there will always be a decrease in interest in the older stuff. Due to both global awareness and Generation Z, the pursuit of more planet friendly ways of transport will not make a Mk II Escort a sensible proposition, much less a 288 GTO. The hypercar & limited edition vehicles that certain manufacturers are pumping out make sense to company bank accounts and people with enough disposable income to go all-in, but the effects of the pandemic will surely lessen this demand as well. Personally I`d much rather have a 1967 Corvette, Shelby Cobra or DB5 parked in my garage than any of the new 0-200 in 0.9 sec cars, the vast majority of the current youth would opt for neither.
Regarding the original sentiments of Big Ry`s post, I too am curious as to the outcome of all this. There is no doubt in my mind that a global recession is unavoidable, and many who are hocked up on finance deals may find it difficult to hang onto their acquisitions, while also struggling to justify selling in a deflated or saturated market. In Switzerland there are currently more than 120 V8 Vantages for sale on one particular website, the numbers rocketing up in recent weeks, and I`ve never seen it anywhere close to that high before.
In the classic market I think there will always be a decrease in interest in the older stuff. Due to both global awareness and Generation Z, the pursuit of more planet friendly ways of transport will not make a Mk II Escort a sensible proposition, much less a 288 GTO. The hypercar & limited edition vehicles that certain manufacturers are pumping out make sense to company bank accounts and people with enough disposable income to go all-in, but the effects of the pandemic will surely lessen this demand as well. Personally I`d much rather have a 1967 Corvette, Shelby Cobra or DB5 parked in my garage than any of the new 0-200 in 0.9 sec cars, the vast majority of the current youth would opt for neither.
EVR said:
phumy said:
Depends on what "Values" you are thinking of, is it monetary value, sentimental value or any other value that you want to call it. Yes there may be a correction of the monetary values but not everyone buys for that reason so i think many who buy for reasons other than monetary it wont make the slightest bit of difference.
I have a very rare `90`s "modern classic" and its something i have lusted after for years, since they came on the market until 5 years ago when i was able to get my hands on one, Ive done loads of work and spent quite a bit on it to bring it up to a good original standard. I know its value today, or the type of money theyre going for but theres no way i would ever sell it, nor would i be concerned if the value dropped just because of this pandemic.
Curious to know what it is!I have a very rare `90`s "modern classic" and its something i have lusted after for years, since they came on the market until 5 years ago when i was able to get my hands on one, Ive done loads of work and spent quite a bit on it to bring it up to a good original standard. I know its value today, or the type of money theyre going for but theres no way i would ever sell it, nor would i be concerned if the value dropped just because of this pandemic.
It should be good for another 25 years now, not that i will be around then but at least my children will get to enjoy it and hopefully others too, when there are only electric silence being driven around and this Audi 5 pot comes burbling past.
There's so much speculation - ranging from increasing used car prices to decreasing used car prices. High inflation from quantitative easing might make cash in the bank a poor choice....buy an Aston and enjoy life 
I doubt anything much is going to change price-wise for the next few months whilst restrictions are in place and furlough is active, and thereafter it depends on the economic harm and the ability of the economy to bounce back. Currently prices aren't moving much if at all, and sales online are still pretty strong....e.g. high prices being achieved on the CCA auctions running every day, and BCA online (trade only) is still shifting stuff at highish prices.There are a few threads on PH with people actively trying to talk down values, saying they're waiting for a bargain. Combined with occasional citing of a low price example, claiming this is a sign, when the reality is that these pop up at any point in time and could be attributed to anything you choose.
So, yes - I do think the whole market will shift, but most Vantages sit in that middle ground of value and have always had fairly low depreciation relative to the wider market. I'm in the process of replacing my Aston with another Aston - I could wait for a few months and see what happens, but I'm very comfortable with the expenditure, and I would rather have it now. For me it's a bit like the housing market; subsequent moves upwards and downwards don't really concern me, as I'm not mortgaged to the hilt and I need a house - any move I may want to make in the future will be to another house in the same market and subject to the same fluctuations. Same with the Aston!
Lovely RS2 - keep it, enjoy it, and don't worry about values!
I doubt anything much is going to change price-wise for the next few months whilst restrictions are in place and furlough is active, and thereafter it depends on the economic harm and the ability of the economy to bounce back. Currently prices aren't moving much if at all, and sales online are still pretty strong....e.g. high prices being achieved on the CCA auctions running every day, and BCA online (trade only) is still shifting stuff at highish prices.There are a few threads on PH with people actively trying to talk down values, saying they're waiting for a bargain. Combined with occasional citing of a low price example, claiming this is a sign, when the reality is that these pop up at any point in time and could be attributed to anything you choose.
So, yes - I do think the whole market will shift, but most Vantages sit in that middle ground of value and have always had fairly low depreciation relative to the wider market. I'm in the process of replacing my Aston with another Aston - I could wait for a few months and see what happens, but I'm very comfortable with the expenditure, and I would rather have it now. For me it's a bit like the housing market; subsequent moves upwards and downwards don't really concern me, as I'm not mortgaged to the hilt and I need a house - any move I may want to make in the future will be to another house in the same market and subject to the same fluctuations. Same with the Aston!
Lovely RS2 - keep it, enjoy it, and don't worry about values!
phumy said:
An Audi RS2 theres only about 110 left and around 70 of those taxed for the road.
It should be good for another 25 years now, not that i will be around then but at least my children will get to enjoy it and hopefully others too, when there are only electric silence being driven around and this Audi 5 pot comes burbling past.
Lovely.It should be good for another 25 years now, not that i will be around then but at least my children will get to enjoy it and hopefully others too, when there are only electric silence being driven around and this Audi 5 pot comes burbling past.
This was my 'modern' classic. A 1989 Audi quattro MB 10 valve from 1989. I bought it in 2010 and sold it for the price I bought it for in 2012. It's probably worth 2 to 3 times that now.
I feel glad I sold my Vanquish a few weeks back, but everything else I own can either stay forever (355, V12V Vantages) , or was always on a set price to go back in the future (600LT, Tesla)
Going to be a big hit for sure, with general business hit I’ve had, with a time machine I wouldn’t have got the 600LT, but accepting that what I have now has got to stay, (unless I want massive penalties/less money than my particular cars are currently worth to me.)
Just hope to be able to drive the bloody things again soon!
It’s going to be painful, but the whole world is taking a hit on much more serious things than I/we are fortunate enough to have, so making sure I keep perspective.
Going to be a big hit for sure, with general business hit I’ve had, with a time machine I wouldn’t have got the 600LT, but accepting that what I have now has got to stay, (unless I want massive penalties/less money than my particular cars are currently worth to me.)
Just hope to be able to drive the bloody things again soon!
It’s going to be painful, but the whole world is taking a hit on much more serious things than I/we are fortunate enough to have, so making sure I keep perspective.
I wonder what percentage of the UK population, are now seriously being financially impacted, unable to pay bills?
That must have some bearing on the future 'Values of Everything'.
Employees at home receiving 80% salary are reasonably financially protected, but there must be many people who find themselves outside the State schemes. They suddenly have no income, but probably mortgages, credit cards, PCP, council tax and many other bills to pay. We have never before witnessed such a widespread, sudden, unforeseen and dramatic change in income vs spending, during our lifetimes. I feel for people facing difficulty.
One world leader said, everything will be back to normal by Easter Sunday.
He clearly has never studied this website, which displays figures provided daily from every country in the world.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
I am an optimistic person, but the situation now does appear to be grim. How will we be able to feel safe being close to other people again, until a vaccine is discovered? Even when the present isolation restrictions are relaxed, the virus will continue to have the ability to transmit.
My car has not moved much since October, but still looks good though.
Edited by Jon39 on Tuesday 7th April 16:17
Jon39 said:
I wonder what percentage of the UK population, are now seriously being financially impacted, unable to pay bills?
That must have some bearing on the future 'Values of Everything'.
Employees at home receiving 80% salary are reasonably financially protected, but there must be many people who find themselves outside the State schemes. They suddenly have no income, but probably mortgages, credit cards, PCP, council tax and many other bills to pay. We have never before witnessed such a widespread, sudden, unforeseen and dramatic change in income vs spending, during our lifetimes. I feel for people facing difficulty.
UK death rate in 'normal times' averages at around 1,600 every day and 600,000 per year....many are those at highest risk from COVID-19, so there's quite an overlap (estimated up to 2/3). There's a decision that may be needed at some point on economy vs loss of life. Sounds unpalatable perhaps, but whilst it may not be publicly very visible, it's already part of medical care and treatment (i.e. already informed by metrics such as QALY). There's a point perhaps not very far away at which economic downturn causes more deaths than the restrictions prevent.
Edited by niggtv on Tuesday 7th April 18:50
Gassing Station | Aston Martin | Top of Page | What's New | My Stuff