The airlines post Covid
Discussion
What are the predictions for the airline industry?
We already have a very fragile industry in which there are many losses and a highly competitive market:
Lufthansa is s
tting down Eurowings, retiring multiple aircraft as they don’t see demand recovering. Will we have to see the industry Start again where we have state owned carriers operating first and then private carriers begin to join in later?
We may see the end of our £30 return fares within Europe.
We already have a very fragile industry in which there are many losses and a highly competitive market:
Lufthansa is s
tting down Eurowings, retiring multiple aircraft as they don’t see demand recovering. Will we have to see the industry Start again where we have state owned carriers operating first and then private carriers begin to join in later?We may see the end of our £30 return fares within Europe.
Regional routes will be reopened (though subsidised) after the collapse of FlyBe and there will be less demand for planes due to the bankruptcy of some of the other airlines so the global shortage of planes due to the wait for the 737 Max will be alleviated.
Can see airfares rising across the board after this, was meant to goto Lanzarote next month for a stag do and it cost £80 return which simply can't be feasible economically.
Can see airfares rising across the board after this, was meant to goto Lanzarote next month for a stag do and it cost £80 return which simply can't be feasible economically.
Brooking10 said:
In the U.K. BA will survive quite likely at the expense of others.
They will almost certainly accelerate the 747 decommissioning programme, A380 possibly.
Virgin is on very shaky ground and while the offering would be missed one suspects the capacity would be far less so.
I can't see how airlines can continue to survive through it though. It's not like in 3 months time we flip a switch and everything comes back online. Each country will begin operating flights again one by one and the route combinations will take time to re establish themselves thats without knowing if there is demand for travel in the first place.They will almost certainly accelerate the 747 decommissioning programme, A380 possibly.
Virgin is on very shaky ground and while the offering would be missed one suspects the capacity would be far less so.
You then end up with aircraft sitting on the tarmac that costs money, they can't be offloaded either as there's few buyers.
jamoor said:
I can't see how airlines can continue to survive through it though. It's not like in 3 months time we flip a switch and everything comes back online. Each country will begin operating flights again one by one and the route combinations will take time to re establish themselves thats without knowing if there is demand for travel in the first place.
You then end up with aircraft sitting on the tarmac that costs money, they can't be offloaded either as there's few buyers.
i wonder if ryan air will survive due to their business model ? offload the aircraft back to the leasing company and let it go bust,then restart on a smaller scale in the future ?You then end up with aircraft sitting on the tarmac that costs money, they can't be offloaded either as there's few buyers.
as it stands their model depends on growth and that certainly isn't happening in the near to mid term.
I have several friends who are all ( were ) commercial air line pilots.
One of them works for TUI and has been flying people back from various locations, after they were stuck on holiday, the last one being Puerto Valata, in Cape Verde.
His last post from BHX, as he shut down the engines on the 757 he flew them back home on was really very sad indeed.
It simply said, “ Last time I will be doing this flight, and I suspect the last time I will ever be flying as a commercial pilot again.”
It’s really very sad, and remember pilots love one thing more than anything else, and that is they simply love to fly.
Another pilot I know is a Virgin Atlantic captain. His posts tell you all you need to know about the future.
“ if you think the days of getting a transatlantic flight for a few hundred pounds will come back soon, think again. With the increased running costs due to fuel and maintenance costs of even the most modern fleets of aircraft, ( A380 being a case in point ) it has become unviable to maintain all but the most commercially viable routes.
Those used to include London to New York, where several flights a day were always at capacity,with business class flights subsiding the cheaper economy cabins seats cost.
Even those wont be viable for the forseable future, so your average London to New York economy flight will be in the £1000 - £1500 per passenger, and then only if enough people book to make the whole flight viable to operate.
I think we have seen the end of the world taking air travel as easily as I does a bus to work.
Sad and strange times indeed.
One of them works for TUI and has been flying people back from various locations, after they were stuck on holiday, the last one being Puerto Valata, in Cape Verde.
His last post from BHX, as he shut down the engines on the 757 he flew them back home on was really very sad indeed.
It simply said, “ Last time I will be doing this flight, and I suspect the last time I will ever be flying as a commercial pilot again.”
It’s really very sad, and remember pilots love one thing more than anything else, and that is they simply love to fly.
Another pilot I know is a Virgin Atlantic captain. His posts tell you all you need to know about the future.
“ if you think the days of getting a transatlantic flight for a few hundred pounds will come back soon, think again. With the increased running costs due to fuel and maintenance costs of even the most modern fleets of aircraft, ( A380 being a case in point ) it has become unviable to maintain all but the most commercially viable routes.
Those used to include London to New York, where several flights a day were always at capacity,with business class flights subsiding the cheaper economy cabins seats cost.
Even those wont be viable for the forseable future, so your average London to New York economy flight will be in the £1000 - £1500 per passenger, and then only if enough people book to make the whole flight viable to operate.
I think we have seen the end of the world taking air travel as easily as I does a bus to work.
Sad and strange times indeed.
Depends, if the stimulus gets bigger maybe not so. I suspect the stimulus, is going to be a lot more than already floated.
We could use all the planes to distribute cash, rather than helicopters.
If we can bridge the gap - and encourage a V shape recovery; this is an issue of a furlough - not necessarily a total collapse. Maybe....
The ECB took a step closer to monetary financing this week, it's possible this might be a way out of the hole (particularly as they cannot agree on debt mutualisation that is a bigger Q than airline survival). I think this would need global coordination - possibly Bailey was too quick to write if off last week.... In normal times, it certainly NOT a good idea - but maybe one last kick (hoooof rather) of the can (for old times sake)?
We could use all the planes to distribute cash, rather than helicopters.
If we can bridge the gap - and encourage a V shape recovery; this is an issue of a furlough - not necessarily a total collapse. Maybe....
The ECB took a step closer to monetary financing this week, it's possible this might be a way out of the hole (particularly as they cannot agree on debt mutualisation that is a bigger Q than airline survival). I think this would need global coordination - possibly Bailey was too quick to write if off last week.... In normal times, it certainly NOT a good idea - but maybe one last kick (hoooof rather) of the can (for old times sake)?
Don't you think that when this is over there will be more people than ever before keen to jet off on a break abroad. Old school business types will continue to rack up the air miles rather than do a zoom meeting.
Sure it's cataclysmic right now, but a few years down the line I'd be amazed if things aren't back to normal - unless the Chinese unleash a virus like this every year.
Sure it's cataclysmic right now, but a few years down the line I'd be amazed if things aren't back to normal - unless the Chinese unleash a virus like this every year.
I see it as being a game changer for the airlines to continue in any capacity.
The cost of air travel will rocket, and planes will be reconfingured to crry far less passengers, imagine all first class style seating, even with each "pod" hermetically sealed with it's own air supply and HEPA filters etc.
Airports carrying far less people, more distancing, less close and invasive security, maybe increased use of scanners, or enhanced video'd self pad downs, (declothing).
As far as I can see, the airline industry as we know it has gone, for up 5 years or so as this virus plays out. I cannot see how airlines would get insurance against being sued by very wealthy people who contract the virus and blame the airline for it. Not there being any appetite for air travel soon. The Emma Thompsons of the world who "have to travel" and yet protest climate changes will suddenly no longer have to travel.....funny that.
Travel will become essential only, the whole hospitality industry will basically cease for several years IMO. I think in 12 months, air travel will less than 10% than it was in January.. sadly, it's gone as far as I can see....and that goes to a lesser degree for all mass transport. Once you see how it has allowed this virus it's rapid spread and devastating effects, people are going to need to real convincing that it will be "safe" again. Same for hotels, same for restaurants, cinemas, sporting events etc etc ...sadly.
The cost of air travel will rocket, and planes will be reconfingured to crry far less passengers, imagine all first class style seating, even with each "pod" hermetically sealed with it's own air supply and HEPA filters etc.
Airports carrying far less people, more distancing, less close and invasive security, maybe increased use of scanners, or enhanced video'd self pad downs, (declothing).
As far as I can see, the airline industry as we know it has gone, for up 5 years or so as this virus plays out. I cannot see how airlines would get insurance against being sued by very wealthy people who contract the virus and blame the airline for it. Not there being any appetite for air travel soon. The Emma Thompsons of the world who "have to travel" and yet protest climate changes will suddenly no longer have to travel.....funny that.
Travel will become essential only, the whole hospitality industry will basically cease for several years IMO. I think in 12 months, air travel will less than 10% than it was in January.. sadly, it's gone as far as I can see....and that goes to a lesser degree for all mass transport. Once you see how it has allowed this virus it's rapid spread and devastating effects, people are going to need to real convincing that it will be "safe" again. Same for hotels, same for restaurants, cinemas, sporting events etc etc ...sadly.
Dromedary66 said:
Don't you think that when this is over there will be more people than ever before keen to jet off on a break abroad. Old school business types will continue to rack up the air miles rather than do a zoom meeting.
Sure it's cataclysmic right now, but a few years down the line I'd be amazed if things aren't back to normal - unless the Chinese unleash a virus like this every year.
Yeah, I don't think people will suddenly stop wanting to go abroad. They might be stopped for a bit, but I can't see demand disappearing. People have always wanted to travel.Sure it's cataclysmic right now, but a few years down the line I'd be amazed if things aren't back to normal - unless the Chinese unleash a virus like this every year.
How many people genuinely and generally use "British" airlines when going abroad.
I travel for leasure more than most. I havn't been on a British airline long haul in forever. In the last few years:
Air China, Etihad, American Airlines, Emirates, Qatar etc... (Some I can't even remember).
And those are just the long haul flights.
I reckon many of them are subsidized by a state. Can't see Emirates not offering cheap flights to exert some global influence and flex their muscles showing the world how great they are.
Sadly I was meant to be flying back from Mexico with BA. Tried getting them to change the flight and was blanked leaving my stuck. In the end went with Aeromexico which cost about £400. So now I have virtual vouchers which I hope to use at some point.
The truth is we all fly too much. Especially me. Perhaps this is the worlds way of helping us sort out climate change.
I travel for leasure more than most. I havn't been on a British airline long haul in forever. In the last few years:
Air China, Etihad, American Airlines, Emirates, Qatar etc... (Some I can't even remember).
And those are just the long haul flights.
I reckon many of them are subsidized by a state. Can't see Emirates not offering cheap flights to exert some global influence and flex their muscles showing the world how great they are.
Sadly I was meant to be flying back from Mexico with BA. Tried getting them to change the flight and was blanked leaving my stuck. In the end went with Aeromexico which cost about £400. So now I have virtual vouchers which I hope to use at some point.
The truth is we all fly too much. Especially me. Perhaps this is the worlds way of helping us sort out climate change.
As far as I’m aware the vast majority of airlines were losing money before CV.
Hardly a month would pass without one going to the wall, resurfacing and filing again.
The industry will emerge I think with less airlines, less routes, less passengers, higher fares and simpler fare structures.
The appetite for travel will return but it’ll have to be met with an easier way of doing it.
Having to turn up three hours before a flight will not continue. Many airport shops will go.
Airports and airlines will be a means of transportation not shopping.
I think when travel is again permitted there will be a huge groundswell of demand but after that’s met much less international travel.
Hardly a month would pass without one going to the wall, resurfacing and filing again.
The industry will emerge I think with less airlines, less routes, less passengers, higher fares and simpler fare structures.
The appetite for travel will return but it’ll have to be met with an easier way of doing it.
Having to turn up three hours before a flight will not continue. Many airport shops will go.
Airports and airlines will be a means of transportation not shopping.
I think when travel is again permitted there will be a huge groundswell of demand but after that’s met much less international travel.
LHRFlightman said:
It's screwed for 5 to 10 years. Airports will go bust, many airlines will too. Ground handlers already are. NATS is in financial difficulties.
The days of expansion of airport's, cheap flights etc are over for a number of years.
End of the third runway?The days of expansion of airport's, cheap flights etc are over for a number of years.
They should permanently scrap HS2 and use the money to prop up the airlines imo. Air travel is far more important to the economy.
Not sure how you'd distribute fairly, though. Or whether it would be enough.
Dromedary66 said:
Don't you think that when this is over there will be more people than ever before keen to jet off on a break abroad. Old school business types will continue to rack up the air miles rather than do a zoom meeting.
Sure it's cataclysmic right now, but a few years down the line I'd be amazed if things aren't back to normal - unless the Chinese unleash a virus like this every year.
Yeah, thats the way I see it. the public arent going to go "Sod hot places I am going to Filey", if they can possibly do it, will be two weeks in Lanzarote, Croatia or Turkey as normal. Sure it's cataclysmic right now, but a few years down the line I'd be amazed if things aren't back to normal - unless the Chinese unleash a virus like this every year.
People arent going to decide that they do not want to see the Colosseum, Big Ben, Empire State Building or Ayres Rock, they are still going to want to visit family abroad.
Business folk dont generally always travel as they have to, because they want to in a lot of cases and sometimes it is unavoidable,
It will finish any ailing airlines, its has effectively ended the era of the four engined widebodies, which was coming anyway, its been accelerated and makes the decision to scrap easier.
wc98 said:
jamoor said:
I can't see how airlines can continue to survive through it though. It's not like in 3 months time we flip a switch and everything comes back online. Each country will begin operating flights again one by one and the route combinations will take time to re establish themselves thats without knowing if there is demand for travel in the first place.
You then end up with aircraft sitting on the tarmac that costs money, they can't be offloaded either as there's few buyers.
i wonder if ryan air will survive due to their business model ? offload the aircraft back to the leasing company and let it go bust,then restart on a smaller scale in the future ?You then end up with aircraft sitting on the tarmac that costs money, they can't be offloaded either as there's few buyers.
as it stands their model depends on growth and that certainly isn't happening in the near to mid term.
I think they are fairly well placed and ruthless enough to come out of this and increase their market share.
Lease companies either repossess 20,000 aeroplanes and park them in the desert, or give airlines a repayment holiday. Oil is $20 a barrel.
It will be interesting to watch the bailouts (financial not ejector seats). Ryanair isn't British so I expect O'Leary to be sent to Dublin with his begging bowl. Will BA be sent to Madrid?
It will be interesting to watch the bailouts (financial not ejector seats). Ryanair isn't British so I expect O'Leary to be sent to Dublin with his begging bowl. Will BA be sent to Madrid?
Who about said about first class pods for everyone 
so you realise the amount of time, type approval, modification, etc, etc that would take to be approved, nevermind the cost, on a commercial aircraft?
Nothing will change, back to normal in terms of travel volume by January 2021, can’t see prices remaining as low as they are though.
We have over 8000 aircraft on order, appx 8.5 years of build from today, if you want a new Single Aisle ac (737/320 family) then you won’t physically receive the aircraft for appx 5 years, that’s future growth, future capacity, lower running costs, greater economy.
I think we will see a reduction in business travel as companies use CV-19 to realise the viability of WFH / Digital meetings / Video Conf’ as CV-19 has forced investment in those areas.
We had Singapore / Bali booked from Manchester, appx £500 round trip each in May, those days are gone.
so you realise the amount of time, type approval, modification, etc, etc that would take to be approved, nevermind the cost, on a commercial aircraft? Nothing will change, back to normal in terms of travel volume by January 2021, can’t see prices remaining as low as they are though.
We have over 8000 aircraft on order, appx 8.5 years of build from today, if you want a new Single Aisle ac (737/320 family) then you won’t physically receive the aircraft for appx 5 years, that’s future growth, future capacity, lower running costs, greater economy.
I think we will see a reduction in business travel as companies use CV-19 to realise the viability of WFH / Digital meetings / Video Conf’ as CV-19 has forced investment in those areas.
We had Singapore / Bali booked from Manchester, appx £500 round trip each in May, those days are gone.
Gassing Station | News, Politics & Economics | Top of Page | What's New | My Stuff