How will CV end?
Discussion
Guys,
Forgive the vague thread title - perhaps the HOW? should be in bold.
We're in lockdown. In theory, there is no transmission of CV between people*. Therefore everyone who is going to get COVID-19 will already have the virus and it's only a matter of time before they show symptoms. However a large number who are infected with CV will show no symptoms or only very mild symptoms.
If the incubation period is 10 days* then on day 11 we should see how has it and who doesn't and the number of new cases should drop to zero (with deaths dropping to zero about 2 weeks later). But what happens then? If the lockdown is lifted at that point then who else will get infected? Will the CV be passed from those who are asymptomatic to those who haven't been exposed to it? Or will it disappear/die out? I can see that those who are showing symptoms of COVID-19 will remain infectious and can potentially pass it on to others and hence they should remain isolated.
At what point will CV disappear from the environment? Can asymptomatic people infect others if they have the disease? Probably yes. Can they infect others once they have recovered from the disease (not that they would know they ever had it)?
Can people who have had the disease (either mildly or severely) catch it again?
In short, will the disease carry on propagating through the population or will it reach a point where everyone who can be affected by it has been affected and it then disappears? I am aware that a vaccine is being desperately sought suggesting that propagation does continue but how?
Genuine question folks, please answer if you have something to offer. I'm aware that this thread will descend into unhelpfulness but I'd really like some good answers before it does!
(There are a lot of estimations and over-simplifications in my outline, which I have marked with a *.)
Thanks for your help.
Forgive the vague thread title - perhaps the HOW? should be in bold.
We're in lockdown. In theory, there is no transmission of CV between people*. Therefore everyone who is going to get COVID-19 will already have the virus and it's only a matter of time before they show symptoms. However a large number who are infected with CV will show no symptoms or only very mild symptoms.
If the incubation period is 10 days* then on day 11 we should see how has it and who doesn't and the number of new cases should drop to zero (with deaths dropping to zero about 2 weeks later). But what happens then? If the lockdown is lifted at that point then who else will get infected? Will the CV be passed from those who are asymptomatic to those who haven't been exposed to it? Or will it disappear/die out? I can see that those who are showing symptoms of COVID-19 will remain infectious and can potentially pass it on to others and hence they should remain isolated.
At what point will CV disappear from the environment? Can asymptomatic people infect others if they have the disease? Probably yes. Can they infect others once they have recovered from the disease (not that they would know they ever had it)?
Can people who have had the disease (either mildly or severely) catch it again?
In short, will the disease carry on propagating through the population or will it reach a point where everyone who can be affected by it has been affected and it then disappears? I am aware that a vaccine is being desperately sought suggesting that propagation does continue but how?
Genuine question folks, please answer if you have something to offer. I'm aware that this thread will descend into unhelpfulness but I'd really like some good answers before it does!
(There are a lot of estimations and over-simplifications in my outline, which I have marked with a *.)
Thanks for your help.
I dont think it will End, its with the human population and it will get controlled, its got all the best minds in Epidemiology focused on it globally and whoever creates a viable vaccine will be quite well rewarded/rewarded in many ways. It is still early days.
We will learnt to live (and die) with it, we will build some level of immunity but it will continue to kill off older, vulnerable and those unlucky enough to react really badly to it.
I suspect we will come out of the lockdown, forget about it but the news will then say there has been a new outbreak somewhere, rinse and repeat.
We will learnt to live (and die) with it, we will build some level of immunity but it will continue to kill off older, vulnerable and those unlucky enough to react really badly to it.
I suspect we will come out of the lockdown, forget about it but the news will then say there has been a new outbreak somewhere, rinse and repeat.
If you ask me the whole lockdown has been a joke. Why are we all expected to stay at home, yet we left our borders open and let anybody into the country with zero testing or quarantine being implemented.
Firstly there is no way we can wait until there are zero deaths each day before lifting the restrictions. We have to accept there are going to be deaths each day and that if we wait for more than a few weeks the economy will be decimated. Unfortunately the reality is that having millions of people unemployed is ultimately going to worse in the long term than possibly avoiding a few thousand people who are elderly or have poor health die prematurely. Potentially closing schools until September is going to affect the education of millions of children and again will ultimately have negative effects for millions of people and the economy long term.
I think we are going to have another three weeks of lockdown and then plans must be in place for things to start to get back to normal. I think first of all Children must go back to school, and anybody who can't work from home should go back to work. Shops need to reopen, it is crazy that I can go to the supermarket as many times a day as I like, yet I can't go to any other shops. Why is it safe to go to the supermarket but not any other shops? The last things to reopen need to be Pubs, Restaurants, Cinemas etc.
Firstly there is no way we can wait until there are zero deaths each day before lifting the restrictions. We have to accept there are going to be deaths each day and that if we wait for more than a few weeks the economy will be decimated. Unfortunately the reality is that having millions of people unemployed is ultimately going to worse in the long term than possibly avoiding a few thousand people who are elderly or have poor health die prematurely. Potentially closing schools until September is going to affect the education of millions of children and again will ultimately have negative effects for millions of people and the economy long term.
I think we are going to have another three weeks of lockdown and then plans must be in place for things to start to get back to normal. I think first of all Children must go back to school, and anybody who can't work from home should go back to work. Shops need to reopen, it is crazy that I can go to the supermarket as many times a day as I like, yet I can't go to any other shops. Why is it safe to go to the supermarket but not any other shops? The last things to reopen need to be Pubs, Restaurants, Cinemas etc.
Joey Deacon said:
Iit is crazy that I can go to the supermarket as many times a day as I like, yet I can't go to any other shops. Why is it safe to go to the supermarket but not any other shops?
It's not. Which is why you shouldn't be going many times a day, you should go once a week if you can help it.On the upside I think they'll be some subtle and not-so-subtle technological and social innovations. WW1 brought ?Women's suffrage. WW2 brought jet planes. This will bring increased remote working, a renewed interest in health issues (better diets, less smoking, personal fitness) and a better appreciation of the much derided [on here] 'spoons pubs when they re-open.
Guys,
Thanks for the answers. I'm keen to know more about the mechanics of how a virus spreads and how it dies out so please can we keep the discussion to that rather than the mechanics of the lockdown itself. (JoeyDeacon - I agree with you, but that's not the topic of this thread).
J4cko - I'm with you when you say that we will will need to learn to live/die with it.
I guess my question is how it propagates once a certain proportion of the population has either had it and got over it OR has self-isolated and not had it? I guess I'm asking from a scientific/epidemiological viewpoint rather than a sociological one.
Thanks for the answers. I'm keen to know more about the mechanics of how a virus spreads and how it dies out so please can we keep the discussion to that rather than the mechanics of the lockdown itself. (JoeyDeacon - I agree with you, but that's not the topic of this thread).
J4cko - I'm with you when you say that we will will need to learn to live/die with it.
I guess my question is how it propagates once a certain proportion of the population has either had it and got over it OR has self-isolated and not had it? I guess I'm asking from a scientific/epidemiological viewpoint rather than a sociological one.
The theoretical non-transmission is a flawed starting point, people are continuing to test positive, so it’s still spreading despite the lockdown measures in place. It’s slowed, but far from stopped.
Your death / hospitalisation assumption of 14 days is a bit random too. The 14 days was for self-isolation if you were showing symptoms not how long it takes to come out the other side.
This isn’t going to zero until there’s a vaccine, even then some nutters will claim it’s poison and catch it, but it won’t have the same effect. Global travel will mean we will continually import and export any illnesses that exist and post-lockdown that will continue.
There will be some significant measures in place, there will be changes to our lifestyles (some significant) and possibly a social acceptance that the old and frail are quite likely to die, along with others. It’s almost like a return to 100+ years ago when it was almost accepted that lifespans were shorter, many families lost a child and people dying in and around middle age wasn’t major news.
Your death / hospitalisation assumption of 14 days is a bit random too. The 14 days was for self-isolation if you were showing symptoms not how long it takes to come out the other side.
This isn’t going to zero until there’s a vaccine, even then some nutters will claim it’s poison and catch it, but it won’t have the same effect. Global travel will mean we will continually import and export any illnesses that exist and post-lockdown that will continue.
There will be some significant measures in place, there will be changes to our lifestyles (some significant) and possibly a social acceptance that the old and frail are quite likely to die, along with others. It’s almost like a return to 100+ years ago when it was almost accepted that lifespans were shorter, many families lost a child and people dying in and around middle age wasn’t major news.
It will end when enough people are immune to stop it spreading. That's assuming it doesn't mutate thus defeating the immunity. That immunity is acquired either through catching and surviving the disease or by a vaccine.
Given the R0 of this thing without any NPI, I think the required herd immunity is somewhere between 70% to 80% from what I've read. That said, I definitely am not aiming to be one of the "herd", I don't like the sound of what it can do to you. Aside from the lung damage there's heart damage, kidney and liver damage and more. It's nasty even if it doesn't kill you. The big question is how many have it without ever having symptoms. The answer to that could change the way we deal with it completely.
Given the R0 of this thing without any NPI, I think the required herd immunity is somewhere between 70% to 80% from what I've read. That said, I definitely am not aiming to be one of the "herd", I don't like the sound of what it can do to you. Aside from the lung damage there's heart damage, kidney and liver damage and more. It's nasty even if it doesn't kill you. The big question is how many have it without ever having symptoms. The answer to that could change the way we deal with it completely.
s2art said:
Best guess is that an anti-viral drug or monoclonal antibody treatmen will emerge in a few months time (perhaps 3 months) after which CV becomes treatable. And approx a year after that a vaccine will become available and CV becomes a bad memory.
What happens if it comes back later on in a mutated version like influenza? Not as if we have a cure for that, the vaccine each year is their best guess as the strain that year.s2art said:
Best guess is that an anti-viral drug or monoclonal antibody treatmen will emerge in a few months time (perhaps 3 months) after which CV becomes treatable. And approx a year after that a vaccine will become available and CV becomes a bad memory.
I keep seeing people making guesses around the date a vaccine will be available, it’s most likely years away. Very few diseases get cured in a matter of months. Swine Flu is not a good comparator as that was a variation on the H1N1 strain and we already knew how to deal with influenza outbreaks and create vaccines. This is brand new. Side issue: The other comments about stopping travel are ridiculous. How do we think we can feed ourselves as a country without importing things? Ditto building / making anything. It is nigh on impossible to isolate ourselves globally.
unident said:
The theoretical non-transmission is a flawed starting point, people are continuing to test positive, so it’s still spreading despite the lockdown measures in place. It’s slowed, but far from stopped.
Your death / hospitalisation assumption of 14 days is a bit random too. The 14 days was for self-isolation if you were showing symptoms not how long it takes to come out the other side.
Thanks, that's helpful. I was aware that my simplifications may be the holes in the argument. Your death / hospitalisation assumption of 14 days is a bit random too. The 14 days was for self-isolation if you were showing symptoms not how long it takes to come out the other side.
My (simplified!) understanding is about 7-10 days from infection to symptoms and from then around 14 days to either death or recovery. However I may be a long way out and am aware that there will be a lot of variation in this.
s2art said:
Best guess is that an anti-viral drug or monoclonal antibody treatmen will emerge in a few months time (perhaps 3 months) after which CV becomes treatable. And approx a year after that a vaccine will become available and CV becomes a bad memory.
This sounds interesting. forgive my ignorance but what is a 'monoclonal antibody treatment'? An effective treatment for someone with the virus, at a guess. Is 3 months a realistic timeframe for something like this? I'm curious as to why this option hasn't been more widely reported given the widespread 12-18 month timescale pushed out for a vaccine. The restrictions will start to lift once they're satisfied the transmission of the virus has been slowed enough or even stopped, as long as the NHS capacity remains above the need for treatment.
There probably won't be an "end" to CV as unfortunately there are reports of people being reinfected. This puts the idea of immunity in doubt if you've already had it.
This will probably just end up being another managed virus once we're past this initial period.
There probably won't be an "end" to CV as unfortunately there are reports of people being reinfected. This puts the idea of immunity in doubt if you've already had it.
This will probably just end up being another managed virus once we're past this initial period.
Joey Deacon said:
s2art said:
Best guess is that an anti-viral drug or monoclonal antibody treatmen will emerge in a few months time (perhaps 3 months) after which CV becomes treatable. And approx a year after that a vaccine will become available and CV becomes a bad memory.
What happens if it comes back later on in a mutated version like influenza? Not as if we have a cure for that, the vaccine each year is their best guess as the strain that year.2Btoo said:
My understanding is that a mutated version of the virus is likely to be less serious than the original form and we should therefore hope for a mutation. Spanish 'flu disappeared very quickly once it mutated.
Could this have already happened? People who have it without symptoms have one type those that die have another? Or would they already know this? A covid max and a covid min? BoRED S2upid said:
Mass immunisation like the MMR jab that’s the only way it’s going to end. Lockdown was only ever to slow it down not completely eradicate it. When lockdown ends you're going to have to take your chance again. I imagine social distancing will be with us for a long time.
Even if they develop the magic antibody for an immunisation jab, the logistics of administering 60+ million jabs is immense.It'll be interesting to see if there's any public backlash in any of the countries relaxing lockdown measures when deaths start going up again.
It seems they're going to have to choose between gradually letting nearly everyone get it, with all the associated death and long term conditions that will bring and a long wait for the most enormous vaccination programme ever attempted.
It seems they're going to have to choose between gradually letting nearly everyone get it, with all the associated death and long term conditions that will bring and a long wait for the most enormous vaccination programme ever attempted.
2Btoo said:
This sounds interesting. forgive my ignorance but what is a 'monoclonal antibody treatment'? An effective treatment for someone with the virus, at a guess. Is 3 months a realistic timeframe for something like this? I'm curious as to why this option hasn't been more widely reported given the widespread 12-18 month timescale pushed out for a vaccine.
See https://www.technologynetworks.com/biopharma/news/...In addition there are umpteen other treatments currently under trial with a timescale of a few months.
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