Corona do nothing
Discussion
I think you're essentially talking about having no 'social distancing'? It's a very broad question that even the WHO would not be able to answer with any confidence. That all depends upon what the actual mortality rate for the disease is...at this point this figure cannot be accurately understood as there is no manageable way of understanding how many people have actually suffered from the disease.
The issue in the scenario you propose would result in hospitals, care homes etc. being utterly swamped with casualties that for those not 'suffering' daily life would be very hard to continue with given the generally grim social outlook which would impact many. This in itself would have far-reaching consequences for the greater community. It may well also be the case that many people would be too ill at any one time to allow police, fire, food services and the like (our valuable key workers) to function correctly further impacting society in a detrimental manner.
I appreciate it is of interest but an answer of any accuracy or merit seems out of reach. I'd rather not envisage it to be honest but others may have a more rosy or informed view?
This all assumes immunity is a guarantee, which at this point it seems too early to completely state would be the case.
Also I might have seen less funny video clips sent to me via WhatsApp...
The issue in the scenario you propose would result in hospitals, care homes etc. being utterly swamped with casualties that for those not 'suffering' daily life would be very hard to continue with given the generally grim social outlook which would impact many. This in itself would have far-reaching consequences for the greater community. It may well also be the case that many people would be too ill at any one time to allow police, fire, food services and the like (our valuable key workers) to function correctly further impacting society in a detrimental manner.
I appreciate it is of interest but an answer of any accuracy or merit seems out of reach. I'd rather not envisage it to be honest but others may have a more rosy or informed view?
This all assumes immunity is a guarantee, which at this point it seems too early to completely state would be the case.
Also I might have seen less funny video clips sent to me via WhatsApp...
Left alone to run rampant it would quickly swamp the NHS due to the rapid exponential increase in cases. Reports vary on the number of severe cases from 30% to 20%. These require medical intervention to avoid them becoming critical and needing ICU. With no NHS left to intervene, things would be catastrophic, not to mention the knock on effects to all other areas of the economy and society.
randytusk said:
Left alone to run rampant it would quickly swamp the NHS due to the rapid exponential increase in cases. Reports vary on the number of severe cases from 30% to 20%. These require medical intervention to avoid them becoming critical and needing ICU. With no NHS left to intervene, things would be catastrophic, not to mention the knock on effects to all other areas of the economy and society.
The news this evening showed a huge queue of ambulances waiting at a hospital in Moscow to drop patients off, they said there was a nine hour wait to get them into the hospital. It did show how a healthcare system could be over-run rapidly.How about:
Severe cases are about 4-5% of the total. And perhaps 80% of these would die with hospitals full, which is what would happen immediately.
So 80% of 5% of 60mill population is 2.4 million deaths.
Or 114,000 deaths a day over a 3 week period.
Fancy burying 114,000 people a day?
Severe cases are about 4-5% of the total. And perhaps 80% of these would die with hospitals full, which is what would happen immediately.
So 80% of 5% of 60mill population is 2.4 million deaths.
Or 114,000 deaths a day over a 3 week period.
Fancy burying 114,000 people a day?
greygoose said:
randytusk said:
Left alone to run rampant it would quickly swamp the NHS due to the rapid exponential increase in cases. Reports vary on the number of severe cases from 30% to 20%. These require medical intervention to avoid them becoming critical and needing ICU. With no NHS left to intervene, things would be catastrophic, not to mention the knock on effects to all other areas of the economy and society.
The news this evening showed a huge queue of ambulances waiting at a hospital in Moscow to drop patients off, they said there was a nine hour wait to get them into the hospital. It did show how a healthcare system could be over-run rapidly.AND 11 hour trolley waits in A&E to get a bed in the hospital before the virus....
The_Doc said:
We had 3 hour waits to get ambulances unloaded BEFORE Coronavirus in the UK
AND 11 hour trolley waits in A&E to get a bed in the hospital before the virus....
Those times have more than likely dropped, as all the halfwits that are usually in there, taking up time and resources, are at home.AND 11 hour trolley waits in A&E to get a bed in the hospital before the virus....
A quick look at the figures for March show a 500,000 drop in attendance from the previous three months, no doubt April will continue that trend.
Oh yes, that's totally right.
Non coronavirus hospital attendances have totally dropped off.
Because people aren't living normally and getting ill, because lots of hospital visits are unnecessary
And worryingly because people are staying at home with illness when they should really be presenting at hospital.
Minor Heart attacks and strokes in particular
Non coronavirus hospital attendances have totally dropped off.
Because people aren't living normally and getting ill, because lots of hospital visits are unnecessary
And worryingly because people are staying at home with illness when they should really be presenting at hospital.
Minor Heart attacks and strokes in particular
The_Doc said:
Oh yes, that's totally right.
Non coronavirus hospital attendances have totally dropped off.
Because people aren't living normally and getting ill, because lots of hospital visits are unnecessary
And worryingly because people are staying at home with illness when they should really be presenting at hospital.
Minor Heart attacks and strokes in particular
My best friends father died of a heart attack at the beginning of the lock down, he didn’t want to bother the hospital as he had been watching the news scaring people into thinking the hospitals were overrun and unable to cope. He tried 111 but there were long waiting times and the heartburn and aching shoulder he had was not that serious, or so he thought. He thought he would feel better the next day but collapsed in the bathroom in the early hours of the morning. Non coronavirus hospital attendances have totally dropped off.
Because people aren't living normally and getting ill, because lots of hospital visits are unnecessary
And worryingly because people are staying at home with illness when they should really be presenting at hospital.
Minor Heart attacks and strokes in particular
The_Doc said:
Oh yes, that's totally right.
Non coronavirus hospital attendances have totally dropped off.
Because people aren't living normally and getting ill, because lots of hospital visits are unnecessary
And worryingly because people are staying at home with illness when they should really be presenting at hospital.
Minor Heart attacks and strokes in particular
whats a minor heart attack?Non coronavirus hospital attendances have totally dropped off.
Because people aren't living normally and getting ill, because lots of hospital visits are unnecessary
And worryingly because people are staying at home with illness when they should really be presenting at hospital.
Minor Heart attacks and strokes in particular
kurt535 said:
The_Doc said:
Oh yes, that's totally right.
Non coronavirus hospital attendances have totally dropped off.
Because people aren't living normally and getting ill, because lots of hospital visits are unnecessary
And worryingly because people are staying at home with illness when they should really be presenting at hospital.
Minor Heart attacks and strokes in particular
whats a minor heart attack?Non coronavirus hospital attendances have totally dropped off.
Because people aren't living normally and getting ill, because lots of hospital visits are unnecessary
And worryingly because people are staying at home with illness when they should really be presenting at hospital.
Minor Heart attacks and strokes in particular
The_Doc said:
Oh yes, that's totally right.
Non coronavirus hospital attendances have totally dropped off.
Because people aren't living normally and getting ill, because lots of hospital visits are unnecessary
And worryingly because people are staying at home with illness when they should really be presenting at hospital.
Minor Heart attacks and strokes in particular
I understand your sentiment, but there are many instances of unnecessary attendances.Non coronavirus hospital attendances have totally dropped off.
Because people aren't living normally and getting ill, because lots of hospital visits are unnecessary
And worryingly because people are staying at home with illness when they should really be presenting at hospital.
Minor Heart attacks and strokes in particular
I know somebody who used to work in A&E and they used to have several patients a day who had very minor injuries such as a cut to their finger, and went home with a plaster. They miraculously don't need to go to the hospital now. Also, one chap was moaning online about the wait to see his local doctor, with a blocked nose.......
On the other side, people with serious illnesses aren't receiving the message that it is OK to go to hospital, they aren't dealing with ONLY Covid19 patients.
The_Doc said:
Fancy burying 114,000 people a day?
When the concept of lockdown was starting to kick off I mentioned that in a way it reminded me of foot and mouth (Coming from a semi-rural area at the time) and made a lightly toned comment that hopefully they're not stacking us up to be burned in the fields.I'm guessing in a no action/restrictions scenario March/April could've been extremely grim.
Don Veloci said:
The_Doc said:
Fancy burying 114,000 people a day?
When the concept of lockdown was starting to kick off I mentioned that in a way it reminded me of foot and mouth (Coming from a semi-rural area at the time) and made a lightly toned comment that hopefully they're not stacking us up to be burned in the fields.I'm guessing in a no action/restrictions scenario March/April could've been extremely grim.
Yes, this is about 5 miles from my house, and what remains to remind people of uncontained outbreaks.
448,000 sheep buried
PositronicRay said:
kurt535 said:
The_Doc said:
Oh yes, that's totally right.
Non coronavirus hospital attendances have totally dropped off.
Because people aren't living normally and getting ill, because lots of hospital visits are unnecessary
And worryingly because people are staying at home with illness when they should really be presenting at hospital.
Minor Heart attacks and strokes in particular
whats a minor heart attack?Non coronavirus hospital attendances have totally dropped off.
Because people aren't living normally and getting ill, because lots of hospital visits are unnecessary
And worryingly because people are staying at home with illness when they should really be presenting at hospital.
Minor Heart attacks and strokes in particular
The_Doc said:
How about:
Severe cases are about 4-5% of the total. And perhaps 80% of these would die with hospitals full, which is what would happen immediately.
So 80% of 5% of 60mill population is 2.4 million deaths.
Or 114,000 deaths a day over a 3 week period.
Fancy burying 114,000 people a day?
114,000 people would not be dying "from" Coronavirus.Severe cases are about 4-5% of the total. And perhaps 80% of these would die with hospitals full, which is what would happen immediately.
So 80% of 5% of 60mill population is 2.4 million deaths.
Or 114,000 deaths a day over a 3 week period.
Fancy burying 114,000 people a day?
Thanks
The CFR with THE RONA! is expected to be less than 1% , infact much less ,estimates are actually around 0.1%.
xjay1337 said:
The_Doc said:
How about:
Severe cases are about 4-5% of the total. And perhaps 80% of these would die with hospitals full, which is what would happen immediately.
So 80% of 5% of 60mill population is 2.4 million deaths.
Or 114,000 deaths a day over a 3 week period.
Fancy burying 114,000 people a day?
114,000 people would not be dying "from" Coronavirus.Severe cases are about 4-5% of the total. And perhaps 80% of these would die with hospitals full, which is what would happen immediately.
So 80% of 5% of 60mill population is 2.4 million deaths.
Or 114,000 deaths a day over a 3 week period.
Fancy burying 114,000 people a day?
Thanks
The CFR with THE RONA! is expected to be less than 1% , infact much less ,estimates are actually around 0.1%.
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