CV19 - NZ - winner or loser?
Discussion
Here in NZ we have almost “beaten” CV19 in that the number of new cases per day are close to zero (just 5 yesterday). Only a handful of old and sick people have died. We currently only have around 8 people in hospital with Covid and today we are going from level 4 (the highest) to level 3 with the hope of moving to level 2 in two more weeks (which is much closer to normal life).
That sounds great and compared to most other countries we are currently in great shape but what about in the longer term? With our strategy the only way forward is to seal NZ off from the rest of the world indefinitely until there is either a cure or vaccine. Tourism is a huge industry for us and we have effectively put it on hold. Our universities are also hooked on the drug of foreign (meaning Chinese) students and there is also a lot of direct foreign investment (again mainly Chinese).
I wonder when the dust has settled in two or three years whether our “success” will be seen as a Pyrrhic victory.
That sounds great and compared to most other countries we are currently in great shape but what about in the longer term? With our strategy the only way forward is to seal NZ off from the rest of the world indefinitely until there is either a cure or vaccine. Tourism is a huge industry for us and we have effectively put it on hold. Our universities are also hooked on the drug of foreign (meaning Chinese) students and there is also a lot of direct foreign investment (again mainly Chinese).
I wonder when the dust has settled in two or three years whether our “success” will be seen as a Pyrrhic victory.
I suppose if NZ follows North Korea and doesn’t let anyone in/out until the global pandemic is completely over, then maybe
But how long is a piece of string ?
Otherwise someone will bring it in .. I don’t know, can NZ sustain itself in total isolation until this has completely passed?
I suppose the barometer would be Ireland ., similar populations.. both with massive global tourism industries
But how long is a piece of string ?
Otherwise someone will bring it in .. I don’t know, can NZ sustain itself in total isolation until this has completely passed?
I suppose the barometer would be Ireland ., similar populations.. both with massive global tourism industries
Edited by Earthdweller on Monday 27th April 19:41
For clarity, I have long held a desire to visit NZ, with Mrs BF, for an extended holiday. It looks like a fabulous country and I have on my bucket list an entry which reads "sipping locally produced Marlborough Sauvignon Blanc, overlooking the ocean, with plates of fresh seafood in front of us".
But, I fear that by suppressing now, you are simply delaying the inevitable infection - especially with the Chinese influx. A nation can have its infection now, in a rush, or it can have said infection over several months, or it can hide from the world and have infection when it reopens.
But, perhaps a vaccine will save us all. Keep that white wine chilled for us!
But, I fear that by suppressing now, you are simply delaying the inevitable infection - especially with the Chinese influx. A nation can have its infection now, in a rush, or it can have said infection over several months, or it can hide from the world and have infection when it reopens.
But, perhaps a vaccine will save us all. Keep that white wine chilled for us!
Mikebentley said:
Interesting points OP. There is certainly something to be said for just getting this talked of “herd immunity “. The Chinese are the worlds exporters of everything!
A cynic would suggest that does not generate the return on investment Mr Gates wants. Can't have people dealing with such things the way nature intendedEarthdweller said:
I suppose if NZ follows North Korea and doesn’t let anyone in/out until the global pandemic is completely over, then maybe
But how long is a piece of string ?
Otherwise someone will bring it in .. I don’t know, can NZ sustain itself in total isolation until this has completely passed?
I suppose the barometer would be Ireland ., similar populations.. both with massive global tourism industries
Anyone arriving in NZ has to go into quarantine for 14 days. One of the few places that policy is perhaps workable as we don’t have any land borders and thousands of miles from anywhere else. But economically it will hurt. But how long is a piece of string ?
Otherwise someone will bring it in .. I don’t know, can NZ sustain itself in total isolation until this has completely passed?
I suppose the barometer would be Ireland ., similar populations.. both with massive global tourism industries
Edited by Earthdweller on Monday 27th April 19:41
Will visiting sports teams be allowed to enter NZ? Presumably "yes" as long as they quarantine for 14 days, which no professional sports team could or would do.
So, no international rugby or cricket on NZ soil for a very long time, then? Knowing a couple of Kiwis, that's going to hurt; they love their sport.
So, no international rugby or cricket on NZ soil for a very long time, then? Knowing a couple of Kiwis, that's going to hurt; they love their sport.
Short term winners... long term losers I think (Sorry).
Keeping completely isolated from the rest of the world simply isn't sustainable.. even if everyone else is doing it as well right now.
I think the 'flattening of the curve(TM)' and then having COVID become part of our normal new seasonal list of cold / flu / viruses is the only way to continue.
We simply won't irradicate it, we need to find a way of living with it. We have a vaccine for the flu and half of the people in most populations don't take it. You are generally told to take it if you are in a higher risk group.. sure.. but the rest of us carry on without a thought.
So having a country with zero immunity and closed borders is a long term losing strategy economically and health size as well. All in my very humble opinion.
Keeping completely isolated from the rest of the world simply isn't sustainable.. even if everyone else is doing it as well right now.
I think the 'flattening of the curve(TM)' and then having COVID become part of our normal new seasonal list of cold / flu / viruses is the only way to continue.
We simply won't irradicate it, we need to find a way of living with it. We have a vaccine for the flu and half of the people in most populations don't take it. You are generally told to take it if you are in a higher risk group.. sure.. but the rest of us carry on without a thought.
So having a country with zero immunity and closed borders is a long term losing strategy economically and health size as well. All in my very humble opinion.
Having to lock yourself in a bunker forever to avoid the plague isn't really a solution - surely *someone* has read a book or seen a film and seen how that turns out for the 'survivors' vs. the immune?
It might work out OK but I think it's really just postponing the inevitable; one little slip and you wasted all that time and effort.
Of course they might find out that a vaccine comes really soon. Or that you can catch immunity from sheep...
It might work out OK but I think it's really just postponing the inevitable; one little slip and you wasted all that time and effort.
Of course they might find out that a vaccine comes really soon. Or that you can catch immunity from sheep...
I don’t think anyone is talking about closing NZ's borders to international trade, just severe restrictions on visitors. It’ll hurt, for sure, but will be far from economically apocalyptic.
The tourist business is a concern, but it actually accounts for less money than domestic tourism ($17b vs $21b, according to Tourism NZ), and when you consider that NZers spend around $10b a year traveling overseas a large chunk of which will likely be spent here instead, starts to look less of a worry.
There’s discussion about creating a South Pacific bubble with Aus, NZ and some of the islands too, which will help since those place account for more than half of our International tourism income.
By comparison, NZ agribusiness generates around $37b in exports and that isn’t likely to change much. May even increase.
Whether isolation it's a viable long-term strategy is another matter, and rather depends on how quickly a vaccine is developed.
Given that there appears to be some debate about whether Covid19 recovery actually results in immunity anyway, it doesn't seem any worse than the alternatives.
k
Was visiting NZ for a long holiday and as it turns out somewhat longer than planned, in fact it's 7 months now due to flights home being cancelled 4 times now and the 5th now booked for 4th June!
I feel that there are immense problems coming down the line to pay for all the "lockdown" and the virtual elimination of tourism, a huge slice of NZ's GDP comes from tourism and that has been wiped out at a stroke with the decision to isolate NZ for the foreseeable future. Look at Queenstown, there is nothing apart from tourism and the same for Rotorua, Taupo etc. what are all those businesses going to do for income now? I see there are talks going on with Oz about starting Trans-Tasman tourism but how many Oz visitors are going to hiring camper vans, the Trans-Tasman tourism is just too small to be viable. How many of those campervan rental companies (Britz, Maui, Jucy etc.) are going to survive with no customers likewise car rental firms like Go Rentals with thousands of cars with no one to rent them. I did see that there was a plan for when tourism partly re-opens and that was to restrict it to 3 areas, Queenstown, Rotorua and Auckland and to strictly control it with no touring around allowed - how's that going to work?
Got quite friendly with the neighbours around the house we've had to rent and they are extremely worried about the direction of travel the government is taking, Jacinda is the hero for now but that will change when the economic realities start to hit, she may decide to lose the election in September and let the opposition deal with it. There is no spare money and NZ doesn't have huge gold/$ reserves to call on so the only way to pay the bill is:
1) Massively raise taxes over a period of time
2) Print money
3) Sell the country to the Chinese
The first is going to be immensely unpopular with the already financially overstretched workforce (can't believe the house prices here and the size of some of the mortgages)
The second will reduce the value of the NZ$ and make imports even more expensive and start the country on the road of becoming the new Zimbabwe, it's a vicious cycle - value drops so print more etc. This obviously will not happen.
The third is well underway already with large swathes of North Shore already in Chinese hands. We went for a walk the other day and counted 27 houses in a row, all empty and all built by a Chinese developer on land the that they had bought, supposedly a block of land for design and build but they came in and bought all of the plots, paid over the odds and locked everybody else out, how do I know, well my daughter tried to buy a plot but was told by the seller that he had sold the whole site to a Chinese company.
So I think it's going to be a combination of 1) and 3).
Interesting times ahead for NZ....
I feel that there are immense problems coming down the line to pay for all the "lockdown" and the virtual elimination of tourism, a huge slice of NZ's GDP comes from tourism and that has been wiped out at a stroke with the decision to isolate NZ for the foreseeable future. Look at Queenstown, there is nothing apart from tourism and the same for Rotorua, Taupo etc. what are all those businesses going to do for income now? I see there are talks going on with Oz about starting Trans-Tasman tourism but how many Oz visitors are going to hiring camper vans, the Trans-Tasman tourism is just too small to be viable. How many of those campervan rental companies (Britz, Maui, Jucy etc.) are going to survive with no customers likewise car rental firms like Go Rentals with thousands of cars with no one to rent them. I did see that there was a plan for when tourism partly re-opens and that was to restrict it to 3 areas, Queenstown, Rotorua and Auckland and to strictly control it with no touring around allowed - how's that going to work?
Got quite friendly with the neighbours around the house we've had to rent and they are extremely worried about the direction of travel the government is taking, Jacinda is the hero for now but that will change when the economic realities start to hit, she may decide to lose the election in September and let the opposition deal with it. There is no spare money and NZ doesn't have huge gold/$ reserves to call on so the only way to pay the bill is:
1) Massively raise taxes over a period of time
2) Print money
3) Sell the country to the Chinese
The first is going to be immensely unpopular with the already financially overstretched workforce (can't believe the house prices here and the size of some of the mortgages)
The second will reduce the value of the NZ$ and make imports even more expensive and start the country on the road of becoming the new Zimbabwe, it's a vicious cycle - value drops so print more etc. This obviously will not happen.
The third is well underway already with large swathes of North Shore already in Chinese hands. We went for a walk the other day and counted 27 houses in a row, all empty and all built by a Chinese developer on land the that they had bought, supposedly a block of land for design and build but they came in and bought all of the plots, paid over the odds and locked everybody else out, how do I know, well my daughter tried to buy a plot but was told by the seller that he had sold the whole site to a Chinese company.
So I think it's going to be a combination of 1) and 3).
Interesting times ahead for NZ....
klootzak said:
I don’t think anyone is talking about closing NZ's borders to international trade, just severe restrictions on visitors. It’ll hurt, for sure, but will be far from economically apocalyptic.
The tourist business is a concern, but it actually accounts for less money than domestic tourism ($17b vs $21b, according to Tourism NZ), and when you consider that NZers spend around $10b a year traveling overseas a large chunk of which will likely be spent here instead, starts to look less of a worry.
There’s discussion about creating a South Pacific bubble with Aus, NZ and some of the islands too, which will help since those place account for more than half of our International tourism income.
By comparison, NZ agribusiness generates around $37b in exports and that isn’t likely to change much. May even increase.
Whether isolation it's a viable long-term strategy is another matter, and rather depends on how quickly a vaccine is developed.
Given that there appears to be some debate about whether Covid19 recovery actually results in immunity anyway, it doesn't seem any worse than the alternatives.
k
Those numbers from NZ tourism are interesting. I wonder how they are recorded given that for 17/18 there were almost 4 million foreign visitors The tourist business is a concern, but it actually accounts for less money than domestic tourism ($17b vs $21b, according to Tourism NZ), and when you consider that NZers spend around $10b a year traveling overseas a large chunk of which will likely be spent here instead, starts to look less of a worry.
There’s discussion about creating a South Pacific bubble with Aus, NZ and some of the islands too, which will help since those place account for more than half of our International tourism income.
By comparison, NZ agribusiness generates around $37b in exports and that isn’t likely to change much. May even increase.
Whether isolation it's a viable long-term strategy is another matter, and rather depends on how quickly a vaccine is developed.
Given that there appears to be some debate about whether Covid19 recovery actually results in immunity anyway, it doesn't seem any worse than the alternatives.
k
Esceptico said:
Those numbers from NZ tourism are interesting. I wonder how they are recorded given that for 17/18 there were almost 4 million foreign visitors
I was surprised as well. Particularly by the domestic number. And the fact that Aussies account for almost half our overseas tourists all by themselves.No idea how TNZ calculate them though. Probably just guesswork and reckons like every other economic stat in NZ
k
Half our tourist spend is from kiwis, and ozzies make up a big chunk of the rest, we'll be opening borders with oz oz soon I think.
We also as a percent of population have quite a lot of testing, none of the random testing has turned up cases, we've traced pretty much every single case source.
Personally I think we've done amazing and we can fix the tourism industry which was completely out of control anyhow
We also as a percent of population have quite a lot of testing, none of the random testing has turned up cases, we've traced pretty much every single case source.
Personally I think we've done amazing and we can fix the tourism industry which was completely out of control anyhow
- edit - tourism and the economy was going to take a big hit regardless of how many people die, its not an either or.
Edited by RobDickinson on Monday 27th April 23:15
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