The Crash in Perspective - Fundsmith

[irc]

Interesting article today.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/investing/shares/terry...

I'm now a Nike and Starbucks owner.

But more seriously the article points out that Fundsmith is more or less flat since the start of the year.

Performance over past year to date - approx + 17%.

ttps://www.hl.co.uk/partners/search/buy-funds-online?partners=1&fund_sedol=B41YBW7&theSource=PC208&Override=1&adg=G+FSDT+GEN+IFG+RSA+NFSLP&gclid=Cj0KCQjwncT1BRDhARIsAOQF9Lmsas1-aoQGGSq2bCADPGnRNimYEvlpZFXK2WCiXSj--cxNHJ01tNgaAo8DEALw_wcB

I'm roughly 50% of my ISAs with Fundsmith so good news. The other 50% has done less well but I'm not anticipating needing to cash anything out for at least a year so all going well the market will be slightly up the next time I need any cash out my ISAcs.

[BlackG7R]

I think Fundsmith has proved its resilience, just as uncle Tel said it would.

FS is my only fund that is still in the black.

But having said that, I don't think this thing is over yet. I think Feb / March was just the first step down in a longer trend.

There's still a lot of bad news, and pain to come IMO, but a year or 18 months from now could be a once in a lifetime opportunity to either start investing, our throw some lumps in. (If you still have a job)

Edited by BlackG7R on Tuesday 5th May 17:53

[Somebody]

If you had bought the investment trust at launch you would be up 32% today.

[Throttle Body]

Somebody said:

If you had bought the investment trust at launch you would be up 32% today.

+320%? Getting the decimal point in the right place is quite important.

[Simpo Two]

Somebody said:

If you had bought the investment trust at launch you would be up 32% today.

Ah well if we're playing that game I'll go back and buy Berkshire Hathaway at launch

[Aiminghigh123]

Netflix?

Up 34900% since May 2002.

[Somebody]

Throttle Body said:

+320%? Getting the decimal point in the right place is quite important.

Knowing the difference between open ended funds and investment trusts is also quite important. I was talking about SSON that was launched in Q4 2018.

[anonymous-user]

I was lucky
This time last year, on a beach in Rhodes (happy days) I sold up Woodford, just before the lock, put it into Fundsmith
Around 5% up since then. Was 15% but a global pandemic got in the way !

[bmwmike]

BlackG7R said:

I think Fundsmith has proved its resilience, just as uncle Tel said it would.

FS is my only fund that is still in the black.

But having said that, I don't think this thing is over yet. I think Feb / March was just the first step down in a longer trend.

There's still a lot of bad news, and pain to come IMO, but a year or 18 months from now could be a once in a lifetime opportunity to either start investing, our throw some lumps in. (If you still have a job)

Edited by BlackG7R on Tuesday 5th May 17:53

so you own a slice of a fund which is buying equities now,but you dont think equities will find a bottom for 12-18 months?

[BlackG7R]

bmwmike said:

BlackG7R said:

I think Fundsmith has proved its resilience, just as uncle Tel said it would.

FS is my only fund that is still in the black.

But having said that, I don't think this thing is over yet. I think Feb / March was just the first step down in a longer trend.

There's still a lot of bad news, and pain to come IMO, but a year or 18 months from now could be a once in a lifetime opportunity to either start investing, our throw some lumps in. (If you still have a job)

Edited by BlackG7R on Tuesday 5th May 17:53

so you own a slice of a fund which is buying equities now,but you dont think equities will find a bottom for 12-18 months?

I'm not really sure what point you are trying to make here, but yes I have had some money in this fund for quite some time. I'm not buying anymore at the moment, but i'm also not selling any either. I am prepared for it to go up and down, as I will probably be holding it for the next 15 years.

As far as the fund buying equities is concerned, it's an equity fund, so I would expect them to buy and sell equities periodically, and I would not presume to advise Terry Smith on how and when he should do this.

[Sheepshanks]

BlackG7R said:

I'm not really sure what point you are trying to make here.....

I think the point is that if you feel equities still have a way to fall then holding equity funds is somewhat illogical.

I'm doing exactly the same though, and sitting with a hefty amonnt of cash and watching open-mouthed as markets in the US just seem to go up every day almost regardless of whatever is in the news.


I never seem to do the right thing - I looked at selling Fundsmith a couple of months ago as the pandemic broke because we do a lot with China and I could see the global business impact was going to be significant, yet the markets were breaking records.

[Phooey]

Podcast. Covid-19’s impact on FundSmith

https://www.brewin.co.uk/insights/covid19s-impact-...

[mikeiow]

Sheepshanks said:

BlackG7R said:

I'm not really sure what point you are trying to make here.....

I think the point is that if you feel equities still have a way to fall then holding equity funds is somewhat illogical.

I'm doing exactly the same though, and sitting with a hefty amonnt of cash and watching open-mouthed as markets in the US just seem to go up every day almost regardless of whatever is in the news.


I never seem to do the right thing - I looked at selling Fundsmith a couple of months ago as the pandemic broke because we do a lot with China and I could see the global business impact was going to be significant, yet the markets were breaking records.

Surely the point is you don't know WHEN the bottom is!

Yes, if you think the market is going to plummet another 20-30% or more (entirely within the realms of possibility!), perhaps swapping to cash now makes sense....
.....but maybe it actually has broadly bottomed out, & will continue along where we are now for 6-18 months (equally possible, I would say). If you've moved to cash, how do you decide when to dive back in?!

& of course, if you plan to hold for 5-15 years, probably (not certainly, of course - none of us have a crystal ball here!) your money will grow before you need to touch it.
Time in the market v trying to time the market......

[Aiminghigh123]

mikeiow said:

Surely the point is you don't know WHEN the bottom is!

Yes, if you think the market is going to plummet another 20-30% or more (entirely within the realms of possibility!), perhaps swapping to cash now makes sense....
.....but maybe it actually has broadly bottomed out, & will continue along where we are now for 6-18 months (equally possible, I would say). If you've moved to cash, how do you decide when to dive back in?!

& of course, if you plan to hold for 5-15 years, probably (not certainly, of course - none of us have a crystal ball here!) your money will grow before you need to touch it.
Time in the market v trying to time the market......

I agree.

First time I have invested always wanted to.

Overall last month I made 7% most of which came in the last week of the month. My aim is 5% a month far better than banks are giving.
I have been dipping in and out of shares as I feel some will drop further. End of last week beginning of this week I had cash and thought I’m not in anything what if it jumps and I’m not in!!
Made a few bad rash moves, if I sold up now I would lose 4% of that gain.
As it is I’m fully in now so have to wait. They are big companies Shell, IAG, Aviva so I think they will be safe but never say never.

Edited by Aiminghigh123 on Wednesday 6th May 11:42

[BlackG7R]

Sheepshanks said:

BlackG7R said:

I'm not really sure what point you are trying to make here.....

I think the point is that if you feel equities still have a way to fall then holding equity funds is somewhat illogical.

It may seem illogical, but it's been proved over and over that trying to jump in and out of the market is not the best strategy. I my may be completely wrong about the future direction of the market, in fact its highly likely I will be.

What if I sold my Fundsmith and it continued to go up ?

I'm trying to follow the advice of Jack Bogle, and not fiddle too much.

[Mr Pointy]

Aiminghigh123 said:

Overall last month I made 7% most of which came in the last week of the month. My aim is 5% a month far better than banks are giving.
I have been dipping in and out of shares as I feel some will drop further. End of last week beginning of this week I had cash and thought I’m not in anything what if it jumps and I’m not in!!
Made a few bad rash moves, if I sold up now I would lose 4% of that gain.
As it is I’m fully in now so have to wait. They are big companies Shell, IAG, Aviva so I think they will be safe but never say never.

5% a month would make you an investing god with millions queueing up to give you their money. 5% a year is more like it.

[Aiminghigh123]

BlackG7R said:

It may seem illogical, but it's been proved over and over that trying to jump in and out of the market is not the best strategy. I my may be completely wrong about the future direction of the market, in fact its highly likely I will be.

What if I sold my Fundsmith and it continued to go up ?

I'm trying to follow the advice of Jack Bogle, and not fiddle too much.

I’m trying both methods.
I have only been trading a month.
The ones that I’m holding are now back to my purchase price.

I have played with IAG dipping in and out playing with £2k I made £500 profit over the month.
Now it’s back at a similar price to when I first started trading and I have reinvested.

Edited by Aiminghigh123 on Wednesday 6th May 16:59

[Stedman]

The rationale behind Nike will be interesting

[TCX]

Mr Pointy said:

Aiminghigh123 said:

Overall last month I made 7% most of which came in the last week of the month. My aim is 5% a month far better than banks are giving.
I have been dipping in and out of shares as I feel some will drop further. End of last week beginning of this week I had cash and thought I’m not in anything what if it jumps and I’m not in!!
Made a few bad rash moves, if I sold up now I would lose 4% of that gain.
As it is I’m fully in now so have to wait. They are big companies Shell, IAG, Aviva so I think they will be safe but never say never.

5% a month would make you an investing god with millions queueing up to give you their money. 5% a year is more like it.

Bow down then baby,SIPP up 41.86% since 14/04/20,then again 3/4 invested lol in AIM rest cash

[NRS]

TCX said:

Mr Pointy said:

Aiminghigh123 said:

Overall last month I made 7% most of which came in the last week of the month. My aim is 5% a month far better than banks are giving.
I have been dipping in and out of shares as I feel some will drop further. End of last week beginning of this week I had cash and thought I’m not in anything what if it jumps and I’m not in!!
Made a few bad rash moves, if I sold up now I would lose 4% of that gain.
As it is I’m fully in now so have to wait. They are big companies Shell, IAG, Aviva so I think they will be safe but never say never.

5% a month would make you an investing god with millions queueing up to give you their money. 5% a year is more like it.

Bow down then baby,SIPP up 41.86% since 14/04/20,then again 3/4 invested lol in AIM rest cash

They will have meant over a longer term average. A rebound during a big crash will of course see some big fast rises. In the long term there will also be some failures, and spectacular ones if you are playing with AIM.