Help me please with basic Coronavirus questions
Discussion
Apologies, maybe this needs to go onto the things you wanted to know thread or has been discussed and I've missed it but I hope someone can help me understand.
Why is testing for Coronavirus so important?
I can be tested today, not have it but catch it by tomorrow. I can understand if there was a form of track and trace used but I'm struggling to understand the benefit of testing 100K who could all be infection free today but infected tomorrow.
Secondly, why are deaths given as death with Coronavirus? If I died with Coronavirus but died of say a heart attack which I was going to die of anyway or die of cancer when I have a mild case of Covid-19?
Thirdly, Death from Coronavirus is because your body over-reacts to trying to defend against it, the ability for your lungs to oxigenate your blood diminishes until eventually you die. Isn't your fate sealed already? Your body will either react OK or it will over react, assuming healthcare procedures such as oxigenation and intubation are available if needed. It is inevitable that unless the virus is iradicated or a vaccine is developed, you will almost certainly catch it unless you die first.
Help in understanding these points appreciated.
Why is testing for Coronavirus so important?
I can be tested today, not have it but catch it by tomorrow. I can understand if there was a form of track and trace used but I'm struggling to understand the benefit of testing 100K who could all be infection free today but infected tomorrow.
Secondly, why are deaths given as death with Coronavirus? If I died with Coronavirus but died of say a heart attack which I was going to die of anyway or die of cancer when I have a mild case of Covid-19?
Thirdly, Death from Coronavirus is because your body over-reacts to trying to defend against it, the ability for your lungs to oxigenate your blood diminishes until eventually you die. Isn't your fate sealed already? Your body will either react OK or it will over react, assuming healthcare procedures such as oxigenation and intubation are available if needed. It is inevitable that unless the virus is iradicated or a vaccine is developed, you will almost certainly catch it unless you die first.
Help in understanding these points appreciated.
Testing - so that positive cases can self isolate and avoid spreading it. Ideally contact tracing too ie with the Isle of Wight app.
Died with - because the immediate cause of death might be say pneumonia. So you died of pneumonia, not CV19, but of course it was brought about by CV19.
Either die or don’t so what’s the point - the point is people like Boris, who didn’t die, but would have without oxygen treatment.
Died with - because the immediate cause of death might be say pneumonia. So you died of pneumonia, not CV19, but of course it was brought about by CV19.
Either die or don’t so what’s the point - the point is people like Boris, who didn’t die, but would have without oxygen treatment.
Ayahuasca said:
Testing - so that positive cases can self isolate and avoid spreading it. Ideally contact tracing too ie with the Isle of Wight app.
Died with - because the immediate cause of death might be say pneumonia. So you died of pneumonia, not CV19, but of course it was brought about by CV19.
Either die or don’t so what’s the point - the point is people like Boris, who didn’t die, but would have without oxygen treatment.
Thank you for that. I hope people don't mind me asking such basic questions but I've got caught up with it all and gone with the flow which always makes me a but uncomfortable.Died with - because the immediate cause of death might be say pneumonia. So you died of pneumonia, not CV19, but of course it was brought about by CV19.
Either die or don’t so what’s the point - the point is people like Boris, who didn’t die, but would have without oxygen treatment.
So if we test say 100K people and say 10K are infected, even if we track and trace those 10K, what about the other 90K who could get the virus the next day? Don't they need to be tested again? Surely for testing to be worthwhile, anyone at risk of getting it needs testing and re-testing frequently. Well, that's impossible.
Then with regards to the "died with". Most of the deaths are elderly, most with underlying conditions. Will we not see a reduction in deaths moving forward as the people who died this week can't die again say in 6 months when they would have died anyway. Apologies for the clumsy wording on that, I don't mean offence if any is taken.
Then with regards to recovering as Boris did. He's probably not a typical example as I guess he got extra special treatment but we haven't got to the stage where people are not being treated as there isn't the staff or equipment. In that case, Boris was never going to die because he was always going to get that level of treatment unless he was so reactive to the virus that no medical treatment could have saved him. I appreciate it isn't as black and white as that but generally, you will either survive with varying levels of treatment or you won't as it is impossible to save you.
Can anyone help me make sense of this please?
Pistom said:
Apologies, maybe this needs to go onto the things you wanted to know thread or has been discussed and I've missed it but I hope someone can help me understand.
Why is testing for Coronavirus so important?
I can be tested today, not have it but catch it by tomorrow. I can understand if there was a form of track and trace used but I'm struggling to understand the benefit of testing 100K who could all be infection free today but infected tomorrow.
It's the same with an MOT test. Your car could be given a clean bill of health and as you leave the testing station, you clout a kerb and put your tracking out to a level that wouldn't pass the test yet you are legal for a year.Why is testing for Coronavirus so important?
I can be tested today, not have it but catch it by tomorrow. I can understand if there was a form of track and trace used but I'm struggling to understand the benefit of testing 100K who could all be infection free today but infected tomorrow.
But, what it (and CV testing) does is provide a measure of control that is better than none. Plus, by testing, what you do is accumulate data which can be used to map how the virus behaves building up, over time, an accurate map of infections. The more data, the more accurate this becomes. This is then used to inform future planning so that second waves or other similar outbreaks can be better managed.
In terms of the here and now, the scenario you describe is entirely possible and testing doesn't really change anything in the grand scheme of things. But at the same time, it is also entirely possible that a test does reveal you have it. That information will then help inform your decisions on - for example - visiting an elderly relative so for those tested positive, it's a very useful thing to know.
Either way, you need the stats'!
Pistom said:
Secondly, why are deaths given as death with Coronavirus? If I died with Coronavirus but died of say a heart attack which I was going to die of anyway or die of cancer when I have a mild case of Covid-19?
The question is what ended your life at the point at which you died. So, if you had a 95 year old cancer sufferer in his final days who then contracted CV and as a result, died then that is what he died of even though his cancer was only days or even hours away from doing the same.I do believe that death is recorded to show whether someone died 'of' or died 'with' CV but the stats we get via the media group all of them together.
Pistom said:
Thirdly, Death from Coronavirus is because your body over-reacts to trying to defend against it, the ability for your lungs to oxigenate your blood diminishes until eventually you die. Isn't your fate sealed already? Your body will either react OK or it will over react, assuming healthcare procedures such as oxigenation and intubation are available if needed. It is inevitable that unless the virus is iradicated or a vaccine is developed, you will almost certainly catch it unless you die first.
Nobody knows. Which is what is really driving much of the measures in place to slow its spread. A little over four months ago, Covid 19 was a few paragraphs in a Zoologist's text book yet in the time since, has brought the world to a grinding halt. It's what we don't know that is more dangerous than what we do know.It may eventually peter out never to be seen again. It may be mutating at a rate of knots. It may be making us all sterile.... who knows? But we need to find out.
HTH
Pistom said:
Then with regards to recovering as Boris did. He's probably not a typical example as I guess he got extra special treatment but we haven't got to the stage where people are not being treated as there isn't the staff or equipment. In that case, Boris was never going to die because he was always going to get that level of treatment unless he was so reactive to the virus that no medical treatment could have saved him. I appreciate it isn't as black and white as that but generally, you will either survive with varying levels of treatment or you won't as it is impossible to save you.
I've no doubt that Boris received additional attention (and I'm personally fine with that) but in terms of extra special treatment...there isn't any really. There's no 'special oxygen' given to VIPs and it's unlikely they'd test new drugs on the Prime Minister. So other than a more regular pumffing of his pillows he would have received nothing beyond what anyone else receives.He recovered because his body was able to fight the infection. The vast majority of people who get it are the same.
You need to think in terms of the population as a whole.
Ignoring cats, dogs and any currently unknown animals which may act as a reservoir of CV19 sources, the virus only exists in infected people.
By ramping up testing of symptomatic individuals, and anyone with whom they have had close contact, it is possible to get an idea as to where the virus is currently most prevalent.
You can then try to isolate people in that area to reduce local spread.
Ideally you would test everyone in the UK every 7 days or so.
That's not practical.
In the real world, this virus isn't going to become manageable until either ~80% of the population have had it and either died or recovered, or there is a safe, effective, plentiful supply of a vaccine.
Either way we are looking at months / years, not weeks.
We are very very lucky that this 1st outbreak of a new virus is not killing 80% of infected people.
That could very easily have happened.
~20% mortality is not going to finish us off as a species, but is also not good.
Whether or not there are longer term complications from having had the virus is something that we will have to wait and see.
I would be surprised if many people who have had significant lung problems with CV19 do not have some form of chronic lung issue later.
TLDR: s
tstorm of massive proportion. Someone fecked up big time. There will be no consequential action taken against them.
Ignoring cats, dogs and any currently unknown animals which may act as a reservoir of CV19 sources, the virus only exists in infected people.
By ramping up testing of symptomatic individuals, and anyone with whom they have had close contact, it is possible to get an idea as to where the virus is currently most prevalent.
You can then try to isolate people in that area to reduce local spread.
Ideally you would test everyone in the UK every 7 days or so.
That's not practical.
In the real world, this virus isn't going to become manageable until either ~80% of the population have had it and either died or recovered, or there is a safe, effective, plentiful supply of a vaccine.
Either way we are looking at months / years, not weeks.
We are very very lucky that this 1st outbreak of a new virus is not killing 80% of infected people.
That could very easily have happened.
~20% mortality is not going to finish us off as a species, but is also not good.
Whether or not there are longer term complications from having had the virus is something that we will have to wait and see.
I would be surprised if many people who have had significant lung problems with CV19 do not have some form of chronic lung issue later.
TLDR: s
tstorm of massive proportion. Someone fecked up big time. There will be no consequential action taken against them.Pistom said:
Then with regards to the "died with". Most of the deaths are elderly, most with underlying conditions. Will we not see a reduction in deaths moving forward as the people who died this week can't die again say in 6 months when they would have died anyway. Apologies for the clumsy wording on that, I don't mean offence if any is taken.
Deaths from flu are always reported as 'excess deaths'. That is, deaths over and above the average run rate of deaths for that time of year. Many more people die every year from or with flu than are reported because they would have died anyway (i.e. from something else) and are not 'excess deaths'. Deaths for Covid-19 are being reported for anyone who died and had Covid-19. Some/many of these people would have died anyway. I'm sorry if this is a rather harsh way of putting it. It will be interesting to see the 'excess death' numbers in due course.Edited by Blacksquid on Wednesday 6th May 17:34
rfisher said:
In the real world, this virus isn't going to become manageable until either ~80% of the population have had it and either died or recovered, or there is a safe, effective, plentiful supply of a vaccine.
Either way we are looking at months / years, not weeks.
We are very very lucky that this 1st outbreak of a new virus is not killing 80% of infected people.
That could very easily have happened.
~20% mortality is not going to finish us off as a species, but is also not good.
I think this sums it up for me, we need to establish a new normal baseline as the current one no longer works for us. While we wait for workable vaccine or treatment we are going to face cycles of lockdown then relaxation as we start establishing our new normal baseline with the limit on relaxation being the NHS capacity.Either way we are looking at months / years, not weeks.
We are very very lucky that this 1st outbreak of a new virus is not killing 80% of infected people.
That could very easily have happened.
~20% mortality is not going to finish us off as a species, but is also not good.
Testing and associated track, trace and isolation will shorten the time between relaxation changes but will also reduce the severity of the lockdown required after a period of relaxation if the virus infections start accelerating too quickly.
The fundamental benefit of testing is it allows more intelligent decisions to be made as the progress of the virus is more visible. By not testing enough the virus is invisible, we have been caught out and care homes have suffered very badly as a result.
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