How long will social distancing last?
Discussion
Apologies if there's another thread on this, I did do a search but couldn't see anything.
There's lots of talk about when each aspect of the lockdown will end, but in reality, to me, one of the most important aspects is when social distancing will end - only then will businesses get back to normal.
Have there been any indicators of when this is likely to happen?
I work in Manchester City Centre. We have an office of 50 people, and with social distancing in place we will only be able to have 10 workstations operational. In addition we won't be permitted to hot-desk so 10 people have been picked who can go into the office and the remainder will continue to WFH. So on any given day there'll only likely be 8 people in our office - operating at 16% of capacity. So that's 32 people who won't be going to Pret or M&S for lunch, or clothes shopping at lunch time, or any of the other incidental spending people do when working in town.
So once we get the OK to open up our office again, it's not going to make a massive difference to the businesses in town.
And with regard to shopping - I have absolutely no desire to go shopping anytime soon if it involves queuing outside a store to get in and following a set route once inside. Maybe I'm out of touch, but I doubt shops being permitted to open is going to solve the problems some think it might. It might even make matters worse for some - they'll have the costs running the stores without a large enough increase in revenue to offset those costs.
Summary - I don't think lifting the lockdown will be the saviour for lots of businesses, until social distancing is removed things are going to be very very difficult.
There's lots of talk about when each aspect of the lockdown will end, but in reality, to me, one of the most important aspects is when social distancing will end - only then will businesses get back to normal.
Have there been any indicators of when this is likely to happen?
I work in Manchester City Centre. We have an office of 50 people, and with social distancing in place we will only be able to have 10 workstations operational. In addition we won't be permitted to hot-desk so 10 people have been picked who can go into the office and the remainder will continue to WFH. So on any given day there'll only likely be 8 people in our office - operating at 16% of capacity. So that's 32 people who won't be going to Pret or M&S for lunch, or clothes shopping at lunch time, or any of the other incidental spending people do when working in town.
So once we get the OK to open up our office again, it's not going to make a massive difference to the businesses in town.
And with regard to shopping - I have absolutely no desire to go shopping anytime soon if it involves queuing outside a store to get in and following a set route once inside. Maybe I'm out of touch, but I doubt shops being permitted to open is going to solve the problems some think it might. It might even make matters worse for some - they'll have the costs running the stores without a large enough increase in revenue to offset those costs.
Summary - I don't think lifting the lockdown will be the saviour for lots of businesses, until social distancing is removed things are going to be very very difficult.
No doubt it will depend on how well the infection rate goes down. You can't say a date because nobody knows.
GT72 said:
And with regard to shopping - I have absolutely no desire to go shopping anytime soon if it involves queuing outside a store to get in and following a set route once inside.
Like a supermarket? That system seems to work pretty well. If it could save your life, why not?Simpo Two said:
Like a supermarket? That system seems to work pretty well. If it could save your life, why not?
People have to go to the supermarket. They don't have to go wander round clothes' shops. I know that it will be some time before my routine of going into town on a Saturday and having a wander round the shops returns - not because I am scared of the virus, but because I simply do not want to queue, wear masks and gloves, try and maintain social distancing etc. Going to the supermarket once a week is already a pain. PrinceRupert said:
Simpo Two said:
Like a supermarket? That system seems to work pretty well. If it could save your life, why not?
People have to go to the supermarket. They don't have to go wander round clothes' shops. I know that it will be some time before my routine of going into town on a Saturday and having a wander round the shops returns - not because I am scared of the virus, but because I simply do not want to queue, wear masks and gloves, try and maintain social distancing etc. Going to the supermarket once a week is already a pain. The High Street is fooked. It was teetering before, but its truly fooked now.
If offices are at <20% capacity, there's far less office lunchtime shoppers. There's far less post work pint/wine sippers. You can see how the economic downturn is going to go around in ever-decreasing circles. The online beneficiaries will no doubt prosper but sadly I fear city centres are going to have a very different vibe to them, which to me is a great pity.
Who actually decided on 2 metres?
I'm thinking rain and fog.
Both waterborne droplets, but one falls down and one doesn't? One stays airbourne all morning .
Does the distancing actually work?
I've seen the various sneezing and coughing mockups in the press. Quite scary really depending on 2 metres to save your life!
I'm thinking rain and fog.
Both waterborne droplets, but one falls down and one doesn't? One stays airbourne all morning .
Does the distancing actually work?
I've seen the various sneezing and coughing mockups in the press. Quite scary really depending on 2 metres to save your life!
mickyh7 said:
Who actually decided on 2 metres?
I'm thinking rain and fog.
Both waterborne droplets, but one falls down and one doesn't? One stays airbourne all morning .
Does the distancing actually work?
I've seen the various sneezing and coughing mockups in the press. Quite scary really depending on 2 metres to save your life!
The government decided. I think that the WHO say 1.5 metres and many other countries say 1m (May have got those two around the wrong way).I'm thinking rain and fog.
Both waterborne droplets, but one falls down and one doesn't? One stays airbourne all morning .
Does the distancing actually work?
I've seen the various sneezing and coughing mockups in the press. Quite scary really depending on 2 metres to save your life!
The 2 metre idea was borne out of research done post ww2 on eradicating the common cold. There is no evidence that covid-19 follows this rule, it is a best guess because it is a corona virus and other corona viruses were found not to be able to survive airborne for that distance. There is also the added complication that the 2 metre idea is based on continuous exposure (I think 10 seconds is the measure) to someone giving off virus, not simply passing by someone in the street or in a shop.
So in answer to the OP, NFI.
So in answer to the OP, NFI.
PrinceRupert said:
People have to go to the supermarket. They don't have to go wander round clothes' shops. I know that it will be some time before my routine of going into town on a Saturday and having a wander round the shops returns - not because I am scared of the virus, but because I simply do not want to queue, wear masks and gloves, try and maintain social distancing etc. Going to the supermarket once a week is already a pain.
Completely agree with this point, I go to the supermarket through necessity and not choice, high street shops can be mainly done online and I'm happy to stay away just because I cant be bothered with the hassle of queuing etc outside every shop I fancy browsing. soofsayer said:
The 2 metre idea was borne out of research done post ww2 on eradicating the common cold. There is no evidence that covid-19 follows this rule, it is a best guess because it is a corona virus and other corona viruses were found not to be able to survive airborne for that distance.
I'd suggest it's a question of how long droplets stay airborne and the inverse square law. 2m would be vastly safer than 1.5m. That would be the same for any droplet, regardless of the particle/s in it.Exposure time is another critical factor.
Simpo Two said:
I'd suggest it's a question of how long droplets stay airborne and the inverse square law. 2m would be vastly safer than 1.5m. That would be the same for any droplet, regardless of the particle/s in it.
Exposure time is another critical factor.
In other countries it is 1m and some 1.5m. It just helps overall but every situation is different. Are you passing at running speed or facing someone who sneezes in a shop? Exposure time is another critical factor.
Shnozz said:
Agree entirely. And this is in Spring/Summer. When it gets cold and wet, even the most ardent real world shop fans will be tested.
The High Street is fooked. It was teetering before, but its truly fooked now.
If offices are at <20% capacity, there's far less office lunchtime shoppers. There's far less post work pint/wine sippers. You can see how the economic downturn is going to go around in ever-decreasing circles. The online beneficiaries will no doubt prosper but sadly I fear city centres are going to have a very different vibe to them, which to me is a great pity.
Absolutely, wait until its pissing down or cold and standing in a car park to get into a shop will be something to be avoided as much as possible. We've been lucky so far. The High Street is fooked. It was teetering before, but its truly fooked now.
If offices are at <20% capacity, there's far less office lunchtime shoppers. There's far less post work pint/wine sippers. You can see how the economic downturn is going to go around in ever-decreasing circles. The online beneficiaries will no doubt prosper but sadly I fear city centres are going to have a very different vibe to them, which to me is a great pity.
I don't agree about the High St. It'll take a hit but it will come back. It'll suffer like any business sector but people want to go to the hops, to browse, to get out of the house, to buy something now etc.
In the company I work for no one is paying a blind bit of attention to any kind of social distancing, we are missing about 25% of staff due to furlough but other than the slightly reduced numbers and staggered break times to reduce the number at any one time in the smoking shelter you would not know there was any kind of health issue at large. 
We have been working since day 1, my nearest colleague is about a meter away for 7 hours a day, walking about the office you can't be further than half a metre from most people, and there are regularly 4 people in an area smaller than 1 meter square waiting for prints off the copier.
Other than a sign and a bottle of spray cleaner in the kitchen it's business as usual, no one has caught anything, no one has taken any time off 'sick', I don't for one second imagine we are the only business that is ignoring any 'guidelines' in order to keep on working behind closed doors and spending all day in that kind of 'normal' environment rightly or wrongly makes you wonder what people are messing about at queuing to get in supermarkets but than ignoring social distancing once inside, will our actions lengthen 'lockdown' or not, who knows, a lot of people seem to be taking a 'f***it' approach to it all now, even high up government officials.
Look at the photos of the gutter press the other day, no social distancing, people are seeing this and taking the possibly uneducated guess that if it's fine for someone else it's fine for them, will we see a second spike, who knows, do you believe the figures are reported accurately? Will a spike be swept under the carpet, no idea, but the sooner we can return to something a lot closer to the old ways the better.
We have been working since day 1, my nearest colleague is about a meter away for 7 hours a day, walking about the office you can't be further than half a metre from most people, and there are regularly 4 people in an area smaller than 1 meter square waiting for prints off the copier.
Other than a sign and a bottle of spray cleaner in the kitchen it's business as usual, no one has caught anything, no one has taken any time off 'sick', I don't for one second imagine we are the only business that is ignoring any 'guidelines' in order to keep on working behind closed doors and spending all day in that kind of 'normal' environment rightly or wrongly makes you wonder what people are messing about at queuing to get in supermarkets but than ignoring social distancing once inside, will our actions lengthen 'lockdown' or not, who knows, a lot of people seem to be taking a 'f***it' approach to it all now, even high up government officials.
Look at the photos of the gutter press the other day, no social distancing, people are seeing this and taking the possibly uneducated guess that if it's fine for someone else it's fine for them, will we see a second spike, who knows, do you believe the figures are reported accurately? Will a spike be swept under the carpet, no idea, but the sooner we can return to something a lot closer to the old ways the better.
raceboy said:
We have been working since day 1, my nearest colleague is about a meter away for 7 hours a day, walking about the office you can't be further than half a metre from most people, and there are regularly 4 people in an area smaller than 1 meter square waiting for prints off the copier.
Other than a sign and a bottle of spray cleaner in the kitchen it's business as usual, no one has caught anything, no one has taken any time off 'sick', I don't for one second imagine we are the only business that is ignoring any 'guidelines' in order to keep on working behind closed doors and spending all day in that kind of 'normal' environment
I might say you've been lucky - but if you were to do what DC is expected to do then you must all resign, as must the journo hacks!!Other than a sign and a bottle of spray cleaner in the kitchen it's business as usual, no one has caught anything, no one has taken any time off 'sick', I don't for one second imagine we are the only business that is ignoring any 'guidelines' in order to keep on working behind closed doors and spending all day in that kind of 'normal' environment
If one of you gets it, they'll pass it to everyone else before they even know they have it. And those X people go home and give it their families.
It's all about risk. You can take a 90% risk and win, or a 10% risk and lose.
raceboy said:
I am genuinely shocked none of us, about 40ish People, have had no health issues.
As I’m typing this I can actually see 2 girls in the other office hugging.
FML. The "new normal" is to be concerned when we see 2 girls hugging. I miss the old days of telling them to Marvin Gaye and get it on.As I’m typing this I can actually see 2 girls in the other office hugging.
lost in espace said:
My business "was" timing and organising running races. I can't see any races taking place until we have a vaccine, and social distancing to be the norm for many years until this happens.
I really hope it's not years, I don't see how most retail and leisure operators will be able to function profitably with social distancing in place.
raceboy said:
I am genuinely shocked none of us, about 40ish People, have had no health issues.
As I’m typing this I can actually see 2 girls in the other office hugging.
I'm surprised no one's had a fit about it. Have none of your colleagues made complaints? I can guarantee at least 3 people in our office of a similar size would be going absolutely nuts if we'd kept the office open. And none of them have underlying health issues - those in the office who do have been brilliant.As I’m typing this I can actually see 2 girls in the other office hugging.
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