189 new dealer stock cars sold in April and May... Deals?
Discussion
https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/markets/articl...
As per the above, interesting to see that the focus on reducing dealer stock is being reported on with the new cap raise with 189 going during lockdown and 617 total stock sold this year. Curious as to who is buying in the current climate and if there are any good deals on offer. Anybody friendly with a dealer that knows the score?
As per the above, interesting to see that the focus on reducing dealer stock is being reported on with the new cap raise with 189 going during lockdown and 617 total stock sold this year. Curious as to who is buying in the current climate and if there are any good deals on offer. Anybody friendly with a dealer that knows the score?
Buddy of mine bought an 18 month old DB11 AMR right in the middle of lockdown ( all done remotely) from a dealer up North and they trailered the car to him a few weeks back...he didn't get a huge disc off the sticker price even tho he took the finance they had on offer. Beautiful car seems the AMR spec really sorted the DB11 out.
Soleith said:
..... interesting to see that the focus on reducing dealer stock is being reported on, with 189 going during lockdown and 617 total stock sold this year.
Difficult to get an understanding about this. Actual factory sales numbers (not retail) should be revealed in the half year results.
In UK the DVLA give their new registration figures immediately to the trade body SMMT, but everyone else has to wait ages for the quarterly publications. The most recent being 4th Quarter 2019. The SMMT monthly announcements stopped publishing any Aston Martin information after December 2018.
UK dealers do not openly advertise their new stock (presumably an edict from above).
USA dealers do advertise new AM stock (eg 220 Vantages at present). That is probably because it appears more common for US dealers to choose the specifications. Might that be because US customers prefer to buy, without having to wait for their car to be built?
Does anyone know if these sales are all brand new unregistered stock cars? Or are they also including used models in the Timeless Programme which have been sitting on dealer forecourts? The reason I ask is that every time I’ve checked the preowned part of the AM website since the lockdown was introduced, the number of cars for sale seems to be continually falling. Just a thought.
Best Regards
Minglar
Best Regards
Minglar
I think the references to dealer stock must be new cars.
We of course need to remember that AML sell (wholesale) cars to dealers, but since last year have been trying to reduce dealer overstocking. Hence their comments about dealer stock (retail) sales.
Overstocked dealers are obviously not keen to buy more cars, so AML sales numbers suffer.
By looking at the Q1 Results and the recent Trading Statement, which gave figures up to 31 May 2020, we know the following;
Wholesale :-
Totals
2019 Q1 = 1057
2020 Q1 = 578
Within those totals, UK had only a small decline.
2019 Q1 = 235
2020 Q1 = 229
Did the factory close in March, if so, probably no further AML sales at all in April and May?
Dealer inventory down by 428 units, in 2020 to 31 Mar.
Dealer stock reduced by 617 units, in 2020 to 31 May.
It was assumed that there'd be some great deals to be had when dealers re-opened. Truthfully, that isn't the case with Aston Martin, in the UK at least. From what I've seen thus far, and some data courtesy of Auto Trader, the current state of affairs looks something like this:
During the month of May this year, prices dropped by the following percentages over May 2019:
Lamborghini -9.0%
Jaguar -4.3%
Maserati -3.40%
Bentley -3.0%
Porsche -2.30%
McLaren -2.20%
Ferrari -1.2%
Aston Martin -0.4%
The data I believe doesn't discriminate between current, last gen and older cars, it's an overarching view.
To complicate matters, the well known move to limit supply of current models to the dealer network, seen in the pre-Christmas 'sales' mean examples of DB11, and more specifically 4.0 Vantage, have dipped to the point where there's rarely more than 30 examples available on average. It would be logical to assume this would help residual values, and in the long term, it certainly wont do any harm.
However, finance houses, who are seen as a gauge for working out future values, in these uncertain times, have started to take a very pessimistic view on where values of all models are heading. Gone are the days of over inflated PCP GFV's - this itself is a double edged sword. The advantage is that you stand a better chance of having equity in a car at the end of a term, the drawback being monthlies for the same car you might have been eyeing up in March this year, have gone up by eye watering amounts in some cases.
The summary would be, dealers haven't needed to drop prices to shift stock - they've been flat out since they re-opened (good news, I think we'd all agree), and the only dent being felt financially is in GFV's for those buying on finance. For s
ts and giggles, I went through the common models, both current and last gen, and it's a bleak looking picture for anyone thinking cars are going to hold their value - on the plus side, no car maker has escaped this new outlook. Some quick examples of where future values may be heading (in the eyes of finance houses at least):
2020 Vantage Coupe (Auto), 750 miles - £115,000 = GFV at 2 years, 12,000 miles - £71k (£44k depreciation)
2020 Vantage AMR (Manual), 1500 miles - £138,000 = GFV at 2 years, 12,000 miles - £73k (£65k depreciation)
2018 Vanquish S Ultimate, 4000 miles - £160,000 - GFV at 2 years, 12,000 miles - £76k (£76k depreciation)
2017 GT8 (Auto), 1400 miles - £150,000 - GFV at 2 years, 12,000 miles - £104k (£46k depreciation)
2017 V12 Vantage S (Manual), 16,000 miles - £116,000 - GFV at 2 years, 12,000 miles - £53k (£63k depreciation)
Those are all PCP deals, and the trend (which tallies with other car makers) is that at the moment, the usual slow down in depreciation after 3 years, isn't present, and a 3 year old car looks to still be dipping in value at a brisk rate, regardless of low mileage / high spec. The V12S example (despite being a manual) looks pretty terrifying for depreciation. I cannot believe it'll tumble in value to that extent, but there seems to be a good probability that manual cars demanding strong values consistently, may be coming to an end - it's a little early to tell though.
I hope the picture is eventually more rosy than these predictions indicate, but on this day in history, there's simply not the deals to be had (unless you're going to Lamborghini... and that's not my cup of Earl Grey).
During the month of May this year, prices dropped by the following percentages over May 2019:
Lamborghini -9.0%
Jaguar -4.3%
Maserati -3.40%
Bentley -3.0%
Porsche -2.30%
McLaren -2.20%
Ferrari -1.2%
Aston Martin -0.4%
The data I believe doesn't discriminate between current, last gen and older cars, it's an overarching view.
To complicate matters, the well known move to limit supply of current models to the dealer network, seen in the pre-Christmas 'sales' mean examples of DB11, and more specifically 4.0 Vantage, have dipped to the point where there's rarely more than 30 examples available on average. It would be logical to assume this would help residual values, and in the long term, it certainly wont do any harm.
However, finance houses, who are seen as a gauge for working out future values, in these uncertain times, have started to take a very pessimistic view on where values of all models are heading. Gone are the days of over inflated PCP GFV's - this itself is a double edged sword. The advantage is that you stand a better chance of having equity in a car at the end of a term, the drawback being monthlies for the same car you might have been eyeing up in March this year, have gone up by eye watering amounts in some cases.
The summary would be, dealers haven't needed to drop prices to shift stock - they've been flat out since they re-opened (good news, I think we'd all agree), and the only dent being felt financially is in GFV's for those buying on finance. For s
ts and giggles, I went through the common models, both current and last gen, and it's a bleak looking picture for anyone thinking cars are going to hold their value - on the plus side, no car maker has escaped this new outlook. Some quick examples of where future values may be heading (in the eyes of finance houses at least):2020 Vantage Coupe (Auto), 750 miles - £115,000 = GFV at 2 years, 12,000 miles - £71k (£44k depreciation)
2020 Vantage AMR (Manual), 1500 miles - £138,000 = GFV at 2 years, 12,000 miles - £73k (£65k depreciation)
2018 Vanquish S Ultimate, 4000 miles - £160,000 - GFV at 2 years, 12,000 miles - £76k (£76k depreciation)
2017 GT8 (Auto), 1400 miles - £150,000 - GFV at 2 years, 12,000 miles - £104k (£46k depreciation)
2017 V12 Vantage S (Manual), 16,000 miles - £116,000 - GFV at 2 years, 12,000 miles - £53k (£63k depreciation)
Those are all PCP deals, and the trend (which tallies with other car makers) is that at the moment, the usual slow down in depreciation after 3 years, isn't present, and a 3 year old car looks to still be dipping in value at a brisk rate, regardless of low mileage / high spec. The V12S example (despite being a manual) looks pretty terrifying for depreciation. I cannot believe it'll tumble in value to that extent, but there seems to be a good probability that manual cars demanding strong values consistently, may be coming to an end - it's a little early to tell though.
I hope the picture is eventually more rosy than these predictions indicate, but on this day in history, there's simply not the deals to be had (unless you're going to Lamborghini... and that's not my cup of Earl Grey).
Now it may just be Aston Martin Nottingham but I had an email about a week ago offering a £20,000 dealer contribution and 6.9% APR on any new DB11 currently in stock if bought and delivered before the end of August.
No idea how many DB11's Nottingham has but they must want shut of a few fast.
No idea how many DB11's Nottingham has but they must want shut of a few fast.
NFC 85 Vette said:
It was assumed that there'd be some great deals to be had when dealers re-opened. Truthfully, that isn't the case with Aston Martin, in the UK at least.
Very detailed research Jon. Must have taken some time.
Years ago, as a rough rule, the main dealer asking price for a 3 year old Aston Martin (core models) was about 60% of the new list price.
Has this now altered significantly?
raceboy said:
Now it may just be Aston Martin Nottingham but I had an email about a week ago offering a £20,000 dealer contribution and 6.9% APR on any new DB11 currently in stock if bought and delivered before the end of August.
No idea how many DB11's Nottingham has but they must want shut of a few fast.
I think the £20k dealer contribution for DB11 has been running for a while - it's the standard Alphera offer available at most dealers. £5k on Vantage and £25k on DBSS seem to be the norm currently - but that's on a new, physical car on the property IIRC.No idea how many DB11's Nottingham has but they must want shut of a few fast.
Jon39 said:
Very detailed research Jon. Must have taken some time.
Years ago, as a rough rule, the main dealer asking price for a 3 year old Aston Martin (core models) was about 60% of the new list price.
Has this now altered significantly?
DB11 is the only model from the current range that could be viewed in a 3 year sample, so a quick look...
A typical early DB11 V12 - October 2017 registered car which sits at 18,600 ish miles. List price with all the options, something in the region of £160-170k I expect when new. For sale at £92,950, so it's seen depreciation of under 50%. It's fared decently against the 60% residual you mention - but the depreciation curve continues, as it's valued at £63k in 24 months and 12,000 miles according to Alphera.
So while the early DB11's finally look to have settled down (the point where they became cheaper than an 8 speed Vanquish was a worry and perhaps what prompted the factory to halt production briefly to correct the supply / demand disparity). They've by no means reached a plateau yet though, and each later model (Vantage, not so much DBSS) seems to be on a similar trajectory.
Potentially great news for buyers in a couple of years, but not for those visiting dealers right now - that said, for some, they either had agreements in place prior to lock down, or have decided you only live once (pandemic has been a wake up call perhaps), and it's better to pull the trigger now, rather than not at all. Dealers have had a very busy couple of weeks so far, so either it's cash buyers, or those on finance who just want the car regardless of where values might be heading. Either way, it's good news for the marque I'd like to think.
Hunter grille (auto) Vantage coupes might be attainable at below £70k in 2-3 years. At that price, some buyers might become less agitated about noses, headlights and infotainment screens, but time will tell. In all honesty though, by that point, the Vantage will be a different car to what's currently available, and probably much more desirable to the more traditional crowd - it's therefore entirely possible that Vantage in its current guise, ends up in the wilderness, as a car that missed the target, and the 'correct' one being that much better, means nobody gives it a second glance, regardless of how far values dip.
Healeyguy said:
Buying a massively depreciating asset on credit doesn’t seem to be the smartest financial move.
At the moment, there's very few cars (across all makes) that are showing strong residuals. Worst affected will be those who had optimistic GFV's on agreements that are coming to an end just as residuals are plummeting. They'll be out of sync as those agreements looked at a different automotive world than the one we're now in (who knew 2 to 4 years ago that the world would grind to a halt for a few months).The hope is that while the picture being painted seems bleak, PCP agreements now stand a chance of not leaving customers woefully snookered with negative equity, making their next purchase expensive (the deposit for the next car being composed sometimes primarily of cash simply to get the existing car to a point where it's equity neutral for a dealer as PX).
The underlying thing that almost always pops up here though, is the belief among some that if you aren't paying cash, you don't deserve to be driving a car as you clearly cannot afford it, and you're therefore a fraud. I've had that accusation leveled at me several times, and it's a shame, but you just have to take it on the chin. I finance my road cars because all my cash is tied up in my motor racing operation, and that money pit most definitely isn't on finance.
Most cars are purchased with some form of Personal credit agreement, the result of this is that a lot of people simply focus on the monthly payment in isolation without really understanding what it is actually costing them and whether they could do better elsewhere. Cars are now like mobile phones and people simply decide on a monthly amount they are willing to pay and that’s it.
I was in a fancy showroom six months ago and a young, besuited salesman approached and opened with ‘...and how much are we looking at spending sir? I replied, ‘as little as possible’, which stumped him for a moment. I realised that what he was actually asking was what sort of monthly payment would I be happy with. It’s almost a work backwards approach where the car becomes secondary.
I was in a fancy showroom six months ago and a young, besuited salesman approached and opened with ‘...and how much are we looking at spending sir? I replied, ‘as little as possible’, which stumped him for a moment. I realised that what he was actually asking was what sort of monthly payment would I be happy with. It’s almost a work backwards approach where the car becomes secondary.
The move from what had been the traditional Hire Purchase (pay for the whole car over 36 months), to PCP (only pay for depreciation over 36 months), was an absolute master stroke for the whole motor industry.
Not only could the punters (motor trade term) obtain far more expensive cars, for the same monthly cost as before, most were forced to change to another new car every three years, because they could not pay the 'balloon' money (which is purposely set high).
Mercedes-Benz UK doubled their sales, after PCP was introduced !
NFC 85 Vette said:
The V12S example (despite being a manual) looks pretty terrifying for depreciation. I cannot believe it'll tumble in value to that extent, but there seems to be a good probability that manual cars demanding strong values consistently, may be coming to an end - it's a little early to tell though.
Hard to know what’s going to happen. What I do know though is that my V12VSM cost me less, from a main dealer, than the one recently sold on Collecting Cars. Suggests that prices are firm for the time being. Suspect that the finance houses may be going for a worst case outlook to avoid being left holding the baby if the economy take a proper and sustained dive. That said, the absolute number of high end cars can’t help if things get bad, especially if these are financed and end up hitting the market instead of being paid off. NFC 85 Vette said:
At the moment, there's very few cars (across all makes) that are showing strong residuals. Worst affected will be those who had optimistic GFV's on agreements that are coming to an end just as residuals are plummeting. They'll be out of sync as those agreements looked at a different automotive world than the one we're now in (who knew 2 to 4 years ago that the world would grind to a halt for a few months).
The hope is that while the picture being painted seems bleak, PCP agreements now stand a chance of not leaving customers woefully snookered with negative equity, making their next purchase expensive (the deposit for the next car being composed sometimes primarily of cash simply to get the existing car to a point where it's equity neutral for a dealer as PX).
The underlying thing that almost always pops up here though, is the belief among some that if you aren't paying cash, you don't deserve to be driving a car as you clearly cannot afford it, and you're therefore a fraud. I've had that accusation leveled at me several times, and it's a shame, but you just have to take it on the chin. I finance my road cars because all my cash is tied up in my motor racing operation, and that money pit most definitely isn't on finance.
The friend I mentioned above who bought the DB11 AMR and took the finance could have bought every car in their showroom simultaneously and it would have barely made a dent to his net worth. Now admittedly he's not a huge car guy and took the finance as it was the least hassle given he could just give it back at end of term...plenty of wealthy people buy cars on PCP these days...I'd be surprised if many walk into a dealer and pay £300k in cash for the latest and greatest. The hope is that while the picture being painted seems bleak, PCP agreements now stand a chance of not leaving customers woefully snookered with negative equity, making their next purchase expensive (the deposit for the next car being composed sometimes primarily of cash simply to get the existing car to a point where it's equity neutral for a dealer as PX).
The underlying thing that almost always pops up here though, is the belief among some that if you aren't paying cash, you don't deserve to be driving a car as you clearly cannot afford it, and you're therefore a fraud. I've had that accusation leveled at me several times, and it's a shame, but you just have to take it on the chin. I finance my road cars because all my cash is tied up in my motor racing operation, and that money pit most definitely isn't on finance.
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