The one where P'hers try and predict the future post CV-19
Discussion
Where I live in East London, I have never seen the pubs and restaurants so busy. I went to a pub to sit in the beer garden today with my son and everyone was having a great one - loads of people drinking and eating. Only a snapshot but there is still significant demand for pubs.
Nightclubs - they are obviously pretty much screwed for the foreseeable.
Nightclubs - they are obviously pretty much screwed for the foreseeable.
As I work on the railway, how do you all feel long term for the railway?
Less people travelling to the office.
I’m not sure if my company really need to bump up services in a weeks time...
People don’t think demand is there yet but more services will help with social distancing, does come at a cost however for the company/ government.
Less people travelling to the office.
I’m not sure if my company really need to bump up services in a weeks time...
People don’t think demand is there yet but more services will help with social distancing, does come at a cost however for the company/ government.
bristolracer said:
In and out lockdown for months, local ones, sections of hospitality shut down, countries on and off the quarantine list,until nobody knows what the f
k is going on and we all give up and go back to normal with a "whatever" attitude.
Thing is most people were already ignoring “lockdown” toward the end of the last national one - look to Leicester, most there ignored the local one imposed. They don’t work, comments in the press this weekend basically saying that they won’t be a thing going forward.k is going on and we all give up and go back to normal with a "whatever" attitude. Covid 21 escapes from a wuhan lab, more deadly than ebola, 70% mortality rate, spreads primarily through aerosol and contact with fluids.
Maskers continue to put bits of cloth over their faces cos SAGE says theyre highly effective, 80% of them contract it and depart planet earth.
Antifa win the nobel peace prize.
BLM tell Lewis Hamilton to shut it.
Everyone happy in lockdown Mk2, clapping NHS every hour, staying together by staying apart, this is not a mask, stayin safe, two metres apart, singin in the rain, residents of Leicester declare a national holiday.
Banksy paints a mural on Lilly Allen, mx5nut finally comes out as a pro Trumper.
Maskers continue to put bits of cloth over their faces cos SAGE says theyre highly effective, 80% of them contract it and depart planet earth.
Antifa win the nobel peace prize.
BLM tell Lewis Hamilton to shut it.
Everyone happy in lockdown Mk2, clapping NHS every hour, staying together by staying apart, this is not a mask, stayin safe, two metres apart, singin in the rain, residents of Leicester declare a national holiday.
Banksy paints a mural on Lilly Allen, mx5nut finally comes out as a pro Trumper.
I'm in the kitchen industry and we can't keep up with the workload. 5 weeks of Lock down here in NZ has made people realise their kitchens are old & dated. Add to the fact that Kiwis take big holidays (my in-laws were spending close to NZ$30k on abig Europe & US trip this year.) and they've all had money to burn.
Same with the building trade, locally they can't keep up.
Obviously hospitality and tourism is on its arse, but those who want to work are taking the seasonal fruit picking jobs normally taken by gap year kids and some people are retraining as they've increased the subsidies available to employers for apprentices
Same with the building trade, locally they can't keep up.
Obviously hospitality and tourism is on its arse, but those who want to work are taking the seasonal fruit picking jobs normally taken by gap year kids and some people are retraining as they've increased the subsidies available to employers for apprentices
England and wales will be back to normal. Living life, finally accepting covid is just a flu.
Scotland will continue to be destroyed by a maniac who refuses to let go of daily power show on bbc. Free speech will be gone in scotland after they force through the hate crime bill act so I'll be in jail for 7 years for inciting hate by saying true facts about the mighty leader clap clap.
The snow will hit 7foot on the highways after the exceptional summer but scotland will blame it on covid, and that's why it cant be cleared. Wont matter since 99% wont be in work anyway.
I will finally build that gate I started 12 months ago.
Scotland will continue to be destroyed by a maniac who refuses to let go of daily power show on bbc. Free speech will be gone in scotland after they force through the hate crime bill act so I'll be in jail for 7 years for inciting hate by saying true facts about the mighty leader clap clap.
The snow will hit 7foot on the highways after the exceptional summer but scotland will blame it on covid, and that's why it cant be cleared. Wont matter since 99% wont be in work anyway.
I will finally build that gate I started 12 months ago.
There will be a ''recession'' as such but it won't be like any we've seen before, yes there will be job losses, but that's no biggie... we can just print a stload more money out of thin air and hand that out under an extended and probably renamed semi permanent furlough scheme.
There was already 50,000 applications for Universal Credit A WEEK prior to Covid so a few more hundred thousand people having some or all of their income derived from benefits really isn't a problem.
Other than the notional unemployment figures and increased number of benefits claimants there won't be any other indications of a recession... no stock market crash, no house price crash, no increase in repo's, no asset price crash.
All thanks to the wonders of endless money printing.
I don't know why it's taken govts this long to figure out that just printing off more and more money is the magical cure all for all economic woes rather than putting up with recessions and depressions like they have been doing for the past few hundred years.
tload more money out of thin air and hand that out under an extended and probably renamed semi permanent furlough scheme.There was already 50,000 applications for Universal Credit A WEEK prior to Covid so a few more hundred thousand people having some or all of their income derived from benefits really isn't a problem.
Other than the notional unemployment figures and increased number of benefits claimants there won't be any other indications of a recession... no stock market crash, no house price crash, no increase in repo's, no asset price crash.
All thanks to the wonders of endless money printing.
I don't know why it's taken govts this long to figure out that just printing off more and more money is the magical cure all for all economic woes rather than putting up with recessions and depressions like they have been doing for the past few hundred years.
hotchy said:
England and wales will be back to normal. Living life, finally accepting covid is just a flu.
Scotland will continue to be destroyed by a maniac who refuses to let go of daily power show on bbc. Free speech will be gone in scotland after they force through the hate crime bill act so I'll be in jail for 7 years for inciting hate by saying true facts about the mighty leader clap clap.
As long as everyone fully understands that it's all the fault of the English.Scotland will continue to be destroyed by a maniac who refuses to let go of daily power show on bbc. Free speech will be gone in scotland after they force through the hate crime bill act so I'll be in jail for 7 years for inciting hate by saying true facts about the mighty leader clap clap.
There are two scenarios in my mind.
Scenario 1 is the good one. By Christmas 2020, anyone fretting about social distancing has had their bumps felt, and the world has gone back to normal, accepting that a small number of people might die, just like they die of other diseases. There is a brief, hard, recession, but the badly affected sectors are recruiting again by 2021 and life goes back to normal.
Scenario 2 is the bad one, and ends in civil war. The madness continues, deep into 2021. All the positivity towards the hospitality sector burns out as it gets cold and wet. Hospitality, travel, tourism and mass transport become untenable as the sums no longer add up, you can’t run any of these on 20% utilisation. Unemployment becomes biblical - pushing 20% from the directly affected industries, then rising further as spending power collapses. The skills base in London vanishes up its own arse, and London ceases to be the engine that powers UK PLC. People realise their families are dying like flies from diseases that were curable in 2019. Not sure what the trigger will be, probably a demo in summer 2021 where someone on the government side starts shooting.
I hope it is Option 1. But this government are not showing competence (and I say that as someone who voted for them).
Scenario 1 is the good one. By Christmas 2020, anyone fretting about social distancing has had their bumps felt, and the world has gone back to normal, accepting that a small number of people might die, just like they die of other diseases. There is a brief, hard, recession, but the badly affected sectors are recruiting again by 2021 and life goes back to normal.
Scenario 2 is the bad one, and ends in civil war. The madness continues, deep into 2021. All the positivity towards the hospitality sector burns out as it gets cold and wet. Hospitality, travel, tourism and mass transport become untenable as the sums no longer add up, you can’t run any of these on 20% utilisation. Unemployment becomes biblical - pushing 20% from the directly affected industries, then rising further as spending power collapses. The skills base in London vanishes up its own arse, and London ceases to be the engine that powers UK PLC. People realise their families are dying like flies from diseases that were curable in 2019. Not sure what the trigger will be, probably a demo in summer 2021 where someone on the government side starts shooting.
I hope it is Option 1. But this government are not showing competence (and I say that as someone who voted for them).
rxe said:
There are two scenarios in my mind.
Scenario 1 is the good one. By Christmas 2020, anyone fretting about social distancing has had their bumps felt, and the world has gone back to normal, accepting that a small number of people might die, just like they die of other diseases. There is a brief, hard, recession, but the badly affected sectors are recruiting again by 2021 and life goes back to normal.
Scenario 2 is the bad one, and ends in civil war. The madness continues, deep into 2021. All the positivity towards the hospitality sector burns out as it gets cold and wet. Hospitality, travel, tourism and mass transport become untenable as the sums no longer add up, you can’t run any of these on 20% utilisation. Unemployment becomes biblical - pushing 20% from the directly affected industries, then rising further as spending power collapses. The skills base in London vanishes up its own arse, and London ceases to be the engine that powers UK PLC. People realise their families are dying like flies from diseases that were curable in 2019. Not sure what the trigger will be, probably a demo in summer 2021 where someone on the government side starts shooting.
I hope it is Option 1. But this government are not showing competence (and I say that as someone who voted for them).
A great soothsayer once said. Scenario 1 is the good one. By Christmas 2020, anyone fretting about social distancing has had their bumps felt, and the world has gone back to normal, accepting that a small number of people might die, just like they die of other diseases. There is a brief, hard, recession, but the badly affected sectors are recruiting again by 2021 and life goes back to normal.
Scenario 2 is the bad one, and ends in civil war. The madness continues, deep into 2021. All the positivity towards the hospitality sector burns out as it gets cold and wet. Hospitality, travel, tourism and mass transport become untenable as the sums no longer add up, you can’t run any of these on 20% utilisation. Unemployment becomes biblical - pushing 20% from the directly affected industries, then rising further as spending power collapses. The skills base in London vanishes up its own arse, and London ceases to be the engine that powers UK PLC. People realise their families are dying like flies from diseases that were curable in 2019. Not sure what the trigger will be, probably a demo in summer 2021 where someone on the government side starts shooting.
I hope it is Option 1. But this government are not showing competence (and I say that as someone who voted for them).
It'll all be OK, or maybe not.
I gave up trying to predict the outcome of this months ago. When lockdown was first announced, I genuinely thought there would be less than 50% compliance & that after two or three weeks Joe Public would stick two fingers up at HMG & all this would have been over by May at the latest. However, things have panned out rather differently: we are essentially in a holding pattern until the vaccine arrives - but will it? The economic damage is seemingly ramping up faster than CV19 infections, but most other developed nations are following more or less the same approach, so perhaps the 'great reset' will actually involve writing off the 'Covid debt' globally. I'm not holding my breath............
mike74 said:
There will be a ''recession'' as such but it won't be like any we've seen before, yes there will be job losses, but that's no biggie... we can just print a stload more money out of thin air and hand that out under an extended and probably renamed semi permanent furlough scheme.
(...)
All thanks to the wonders of endless money printing.
I don't know why it's taken govts this long to figure out that just printing off more and more money is the magical cure all for all economic woes rather than putting up with recessions and depressions like they have been doing for the past few hundred years.
Milton Friedman defined the idea back in the late 60s. Pretty well documented but the the first significant application was back in 2008/09 I suppose. We'll see if the second one works as well. tload more money out of thin air and hand that out under an extended and probably renamed semi permanent furlough scheme.(...)
All thanks to the wonders of endless money printing.
I don't know why it's taken govts this long to figure out that just printing off more and more money is the magical cure all for all economic woes rather than putting up with recessions and depressions like they have been doing for the past few hundred years.
Gassing Station | News, Politics & Economics | Top of Page | What's New | My Stuff