911 market 2021/22
Discussion
I know this is crystal ball stuff but what’s everyone’s feeling in the coming year or two given covid and Brexit impact?
It’s seems the market is slightly over valued at the moment and I can’t see it lasting and I’m expecting a good drop over the next twelve months as long term economic impacts start adding up. By how much I have zero idea TBH.
Just wondering what other people’s predictions are.
It’s seems the market is slightly over valued at the moment and I can’t see it lasting and I’m expecting a good drop over the next twelve months as long term economic impacts start adding up. By how much I have zero idea TBH.
Just wondering what other people’s predictions are.
Edited by bosshog on Sunday 8th November 13:46
bosshog said:
I know this is crystal ball stuff but what’s everyone’s feeling in the coming year or two given covid and Brexit impact?
It’s seems the market is slightly over valued at the moment and I can’t see it lasting and I’m expecting a good drop over the next twelve months as long term economic impacts start adding up. By how much I have zero idea TBH.
Just wondering what other Popeyes predictions are.
In the main, safe assumption that supply may outstrip demand in near/medium term. As a guide, I understand that finance companies are already factoring the anticipated impact on residual values in their ballon payments. This should give you a guide as to residuals and where the market is undoubtedly heading.It’s seems the market is slightly over valued at the moment and I can’t see it lasting and I’m expecting a good drop over the next twelve months as long term economic impacts start adding up. By how much I have zero idea TBH.
Just wondering what other Popeyes predictions are.
Not really sure about regular 911 prices but GT cars I think will be soft. There are a lot for sale right now, especially the lower production RS and limited edition cars that are still at a premium to new prices i.e. GT2 RS, Speedster and GT3 RS which there are more for sale than pre Covid ....in contrast to other similar brands where used inventory is lower than it was pre Covid.
Sometime in the first half of next year the 992 GT3 will be launched into a more normal market than the previous GT3....IIRC 991.1 GT3 prices were still at a premium and around £130k when 991.2 GT3 was launched ? 991.2 GT3 prices are below list because there are so many more of them.
They’ve increased volumes of GT cars significantly over the last five years and I think we’re now at something close to saturation point....pretty much everyone that has got one wants one so it’s now a “one in one out” in most people’s garages. Yes 992 GT3 will have people clambering for a GT3 allocation but I am not sure how many really want one vs want a car that’s cheap to own/try and flip for a profit. Certainly 50% of GT3 RS and Speedster’s seemed to go to people that didn’t actually want one for what it was intended for.
With regards to regular 911’s...Porsche are pretty much doubling deliveries of new cars for the next two months to get sales back to what they would be in a normal year. My guess is they’ve not all got homes and OPC’s will want them gone before Dec 31st.
Sometime in the first half of next year the 992 GT3 will be launched into a more normal market than the previous GT3....IIRC 991.1 GT3 prices were still at a premium and around £130k when 991.2 GT3 was launched ? 991.2 GT3 prices are below list because there are so many more of them.
They’ve increased volumes of GT cars significantly over the last five years and I think we’re now at something close to saturation point....pretty much everyone that has got one wants one so it’s now a “one in one out” in most people’s garages. Yes 992 GT3 will have people clambering for a GT3 allocation but I am not sure how many really want one vs want a car that’s cheap to own/try and flip for a profit. Certainly 50% of GT3 RS and Speedster’s seemed to go to people that didn’t actually want one for what it was intended for.
With regards to regular 911’s...Porsche are pretty much doubling deliveries of new cars for the next two months to get sales back to what they would be in a normal year. My guess is they’ve not all got homes and OPC’s will want them gone before Dec 31st.
Cheib said:
Not really sure about regular 911 prices but GT cars I think will be soft. There are a lot for sale right now, especially the lower production RS and limited edition cars that are still at a premium to new prices i.e. GT2 RS, Speedster and GT3 RS which there are more for sale than pre Covid ....in contrast to other similar brands where used inventory is lower than it was pre Covid.
Sometime in the first half of next year the 992 GT3 will be launched into a more normal market than the previous GT3....IIRC 991.1 GT3 prices were still at a premium and around £130k when 991.2 GT3 was launched ? 991.2 GT3 prices are below list because there are so many more of them.
They’ve increased volumes of GT cars significantly over the last five years and I think we’re now at something close to saturation point....pretty much everyone that has got one wants one so it’s now a “one in one out” in most people’s garages. Yes 992 GT3 will have people clambering for a GT3 allocation but I am not sure how many really want one vs want a car that’s cheap to own/try and flip for a profit. Certainly 50% of GT3 RS and Speedster’s seemed to go to people that didn’t actually want one for what it was intended for.
With regards to regular 911’s...Porsche are pretty much doubling deliveries of new cars for the next two months to get sales back to what they would be in a normal year. My guess is they’ve not all got homes and OPC’s will want them gone before Dec 31st.
Hiya buddy,Sometime in the first half of next year the 992 GT3 will be launched into a more normal market than the previous GT3....IIRC 991.1 GT3 prices were still at a premium and around £130k when 991.2 GT3 was launched ? 991.2 GT3 prices are below list because there are so many more of them.
They’ve increased volumes of GT cars significantly over the last five years and I think we’re now at something close to saturation point....pretty much everyone that has got one wants one so it’s now a “one in one out” in most people’s garages. Yes 992 GT3 will have people clambering for a GT3 allocation but I am not sure how many really want one vs want a car that’s cheap to own/try and flip for a profit. Certainly 50% of GT3 RS and Speedster’s seemed to go to people that didn’t actually want one for what it was intended for.
With regards to regular 911’s...Porsche are pretty much doubling deliveries of new cars for the next two months to get sales back to what they would be in a normal year. My guess is they’ve not all got homes and OPC’s will want them gone before Dec 31st.
I agree, the buzz for the 992 GT3 is somewhat very quiet compared to the lead up to the 991’s.
It’s not just down to COVID, it was on the cards anyway.
I have a feeling the OPC’s will give a lot of allocations out to those that have always wanted a GT3 and not so much the ones that have a 991.2GT3. Time will tell.
I can't get my OPC to return my calls to order a 911 so I expect the market will still be restricted into early 2021. Porsche still seem to be holding up very well all things considered.
https://newsroom.porsche.com/en/2020/company/porsc...
https://newsroom.porsche.com/en/2020/company/porsc...
Cheib said:
With regards to regular 911’s...Porsche are pretty much doubling deliveries of new cars for the next two months to get sales back to what they would be in a normal year. My guess is they’ve not all got homes and OPC’s will want them gone before Dec 31st.
I am assuming the marketing guys at Porsche are ver clever and will only produce just enough cars to meet demand without flooding the market and therefore devaluing the brand . If that is the case then I suspect that the short term increase is meet the current demand I imagine. My 2 local OPC have no new or demo 992 in stock at all as any car they can get hod of is in, washed, and out the next day or soWeird times for sure and the bubble will burst at some point for sure .......GT cars remind me of the Rolex bubble and how it is going to burst......
To put it simplistically Porsche are governed in how many IC cars they sell by how many Taycan’s they can sell/produce...as that defines their “fleet average” emissions. You’d think they’d prioritise 992 where they can as that’s clearly the most profitable car in the range. The other factor is that if 992 GT3 is launched next year some production will obviously go to that and GTS when it’s launched. Like in the last year or two of 991.2 production there were hardly any Carrera S’s made.
Nick981 said:
Interesting to read today that the government is looking at closing CGT loopholes. I wonder what effect that will have on the flippers?
None. Cars aren’t subject to CGT as they are defined as a Wasting Asset (useful life of less than 50 years). If you buy a rusted out early 911 S for say £50k and spend £160k on the restoration your cost if £210k. Two year’s later you sell the car for £180k. Is that a capital gain of £130k or a loss of £30k ?
If they brought CGT in on cars it would destroy thousands of job....nobody would restore cars. Unless they allowed repairs/restoration as an allowable cost but that starts getting very complicated.
Cheib said:
None. Cars aren’t subject to CGT as they are defined as a Wasting Asset (useful life of less than 50 years).
If you buy a rusted out early 911 S for say £50k and spend £160k on the restoration your cost if £210k. Two year’s later you sell the car for £180k. Is that a capital gain of £130k or a loss of £30k ?
If they brought CGT in on cars it would destroy thousands of job....nobody would restore cars. Unless they allowed repairs/restoration as an allowable cost but that starts getting very complicated.
All very true until you flip more than a couple for profit in which case the IR is well within its rights to reclassify the 'flipper' as a trader rather than a private user. Strictly speaking until that happens the 'flipped' cars are deemed to be personal use transport and exempt of CGT or Income tax. If the IR decided you're a trader your main defence is being able to show losses incurred on sales of normal Porsches to offset against the profit from the special GT ones.If you buy a rusted out early 911 S for say £50k and spend £160k on the restoration your cost if £210k. Two year’s later you sell the car for £180k. Is that a capital gain of £130k or a loss of £30k ?
If they brought CGT in on cars it would destroy thousands of job....nobody would restore cars. Unless they allowed repairs/restoration as an allowable cost but that starts getting very complicated.
All the above is to do with flipping new cars which is different to trading in old ones.
In your case above if detailed receipts are kept for the work on the old 911 then these can be offset against the sale profit just like any other balance sheet exercise. In this case there was clearly a loss of £30K which can be used to carry forward to the next and subsequent trading years. Business losses never lapse and can be carried forward indefinitely as i understand it.
Cheib said:
To put it simplistically Porsche are governed in how many IC cars they sell by how many Taycan’s they can sell/produce...as that defines their “fleet average” emissions. You’d think they’d prioritise 992 where they can as that’s clearly the most profitable car in the range. The other factor is that if 992 GT3 is launched next year some production will obviously go to that and GTS when it’s launched. Like in the last year or two of 991.2 production there were hardly any Carrera S’s made.
Restricted supply has certainly held 992 trade-in values up - I made an enquiry to sell a couple of months ago, expecting to loose my shirt and was pleasantly surprised - and have since had a couple of follow up messages, so I can only presume buyers are still waiting. Still hardly any 992 C2S Coupe in the used network. With restricted supply set to continue as per above, amplified as we come out of lockdown with confidence returning - Trump and Brexit out of the way and a realistic vaccination programme in place, whilst I certainly don't see values increasing on boggo 992's, I'm going to enjoy the next 6 months of almost depreciation free 911 ownership.
Biggriff said:
The Porsche Centre have told me that 992 allocation will be massively reduced next year. Seems Porsche need to sell more electric/phev type models to lower CO2 and avoid a fine. Whether this is true or not I have no idea.
This is 100% true.My local MB dealer has brand new stock sitting around the back that they are not allowed to sell as they are classed as high emission vehicles due to the fact they have not met the volume of sales of zero or very low emission vehicles that balances out being able to sell the high emissions vehicles.
The DP is pulling his hair out.
I cannot see it being any different for other manufacturers.
Cheib said:
To put it simplistically Porsche are governed in how many IC cars they sell by how many Taycan’s they can sell/produce...as that defines their “fleet average” emissions. You’d think they’d prioritise 992 where they can as that’s clearly the most profitable car in the range. The other factor is that if 992 GT3 is launched next year some production will obviously go to that and GTS when it’s launched. Like in the last year or two of 991.2 production there were hardly any Carrera S’s made.
Surely hardly and Carrera 2S are made as demand/supply moves to the GTS, which is basically the same model updated.Happened with the 997.2 C2S to 997 GTS. The fact we had the recession in 2010 further reduced the number bought.
Same will happen in 2020/2021 with the 991.2 C2S to GTS with COVID and Brexit to tighten peoples belts.
The winners are those who pick up a latw C2S/GTS after 3-5 years so main depreciation is gone and then car sit in a car that holds it's value.
g7jhp said:
The winners are those who pick up a latw C2S/GTS after 3-5 years so main depreciation is gone and then car sit in a car that holds it's value.
I do think the depreciation curve will be quite significant over the coming years, as public sentiment, legislation and taxation diminish the enthusiasm for ICE powered cars.Yes, there might be some limited enthusiasm for certain interesting cars, but the sheer oversupply is going to see values tumble. Buy to enjoy - the sun is setting on the golden age.
Legislation and EU fines will in some way control supply according to my dealer. They have a huge amount of pressure on them to sell more Taycans. It is not impossible that X amount of EVs sold will give the dealership Y amount of ICE cars in the not so distant future. I guess clients that have bought Taycans will be prioritized in the future when it comes to GT allocations. Or ICE cars in general.
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