Ban on new ICE car sales by 2030 - Residuals debate?
Discussion
Morning. Anyone have any insights as to what the impact of banning sales of new petrol cars by 2030 will have on residual values of exotic/ performance cars over that period? I can see arguments on both sides. The sticker price of any remaining unsold stock on Dec 31 2029 will be scrap value, so its seems likely new ICE sales will be phased out well in advance of that being a risk for the industry.
On the other hand you could argue prices will rise from a scarcity perspective as marginal supply of ICE exotica will dwindle to near zero from around 2025 onwards tapering down to zero in 2030. I guess big question is whether demand falls faster or slower than falling supply.
On the other hand you could argue prices will rise from a scarcity perspective as marginal supply of ICE exotica will dwindle to near zero from around 2025 onwards tapering down to zero in 2030. I guess big question is whether demand falls faster or slower than falling supply.
dg73 said:
The sticker price of any remaining unsold stock on Dec 31 2029 will be scrap value
Pop my name down for a DB5 now then. 
I'll worry about getting petrol for it then.It really is proper crystal ball stuff, Ferrari are burying their heads in the sand, I'll believe it when I see it, and then even if it happens you can't just swap the infrastructures over night, have a look at the average age of cars on the road, not everyone is on a 2 year lease deal, average age in our works carpark is probably about 10 years old, with some over 20, is there going to be a mass scrapage scheme for ICE cars, but how do classics sit in that equation? So many questions and so few answers from the powers that be.
Far too many variables. Could be a different Government by then - certainly a new Prime Minister. Dare I say it, Covid v4.0? Huge issues with the auto industry, massive amount of charging infrastructure to establish. What about all the diesel lorries etc? What about motorbikes? Battery supply?
Just random notes.
Biggest fear re future values of performance/historic cars would be big increases in road taxes to price them off the road. But I guess us lot are a tiny percentage of the big picture.
I’ll look at it again in about five years.
Just random notes.
Biggest fear re future values of performance/historic cars would be big increases in road taxes to price them off the road. But I guess us lot are a tiny percentage of the big picture.
I’ll look at it again in about five years.
raceboy said:
Pop my name down for a DB5 now then. I'll worry about getting petrol for it then.
It really is proper crystal ball stuff, Ferrari are burying their heads in the sand, I'll believe it when I see it, and then even if it happens you can't just swap the infrastructures over night, have a look at the average age of cars on the road, not everyone is on a 2 year lease deal, average age in our works carpark is probably about 10 years old, with some over 20, is there going to be a mass scrapage scheme for ICE cars, but how do classics sit in that equation? So many questions and so few answers from the powers that be.
If Ferrari are sticking their heads in the sand, what are Aston doing? At least Ferrari have a few hybrid power trains already in production. Aston has just joined the petrol powered 4x4 party, about 17 years after Porche brought out the Cayenne. Im not bashing Aston, I love the brand and have been a serial owner, I just wonder what they will be doing 10 years from now when the curtain falls on 100% of their current product offering. Their failed attempt at the Rapide E doesnt bode well, and they are probably too small to be able to fund wholesale redevelopment of their entire range to electric, but that a different topic altogehter. For now Im just wondering how this transition will affect residuals. Im totally open minded in either direction but yet to see any considered analysis out there on it. I'll worry about getting petrol for it then.It really is proper crystal ball stuff, Ferrari are burying their heads in the sand, I'll believe it when I see it, and then even if it happens you can't just swap the infrastructures over night, have a look at the average age of cars on the road, not everyone is on a 2 year lease deal, average age in our works carpark is probably about 10 years old, with some over 20, is there going to be a mass scrapage scheme for ICE cars, but how do classics sit in that equation? So many questions and so few answers from the powers that be.
Phil74891 said:
Far too many variables. Could be a different Government by then - certainly a new Prime Minister. Dare I say it, Covid v4.0? Huge issues with the auto industry, massive amount of charging infrastructure to establish. What about all the diesel lorries etc? What about motorbikes? Battery supply?
Just random notes.
Biggest fear re future values of performance/historic cars would be big increases in road taxes to price them off the road. But I guess us lot are a tiny percentage of the big picture.
I’ll look at it again in about five years.
Some of your questions answered!Just random notes.
Biggest fear re future values of performance/historic cars would be big increases in road taxes to price them off the road. But I guess us lot are a tiny percentage of the big picture.
I’ll look at it again in about five years.
China wants to ban all pure ICEs from 2035.
Scania Trucks owned by VW investing 100million euros in a battery plant.
VW themselves are investing 73 billion euros in electrification and hybridisation.
UK to invest £1.3 billion in charging points.
The VDA (German Association of the Automotive Industry) is saying that if Euro 7 goes ahead then the combustion engine would be phased out from 2025.
https://www.electrive.com/2020/11/16/vda-worried-a...
Too many variables.
We'll still be able to get fuel but who knows at what cost.
The push to EV is huge but EV could be killed by hydrogen or they could coexist. A lot will depend on refinery processes and costs, energy density /kg will become seriously important.
0.25 kw/kg (battery)
90+kw/kg (hydrogen)
8kw/kg (petrol)
i.e 1kg of hydrogen has the same power as the 650+kg battery pack in a model S.
I can't imagine 2029 petrol lease deals will have good guaranteed final values.
We'll still be able to get fuel but who knows at what cost.
The push to EV is huge but EV could be killed by hydrogen or they could coexist. A lot will depend on refinery processes and costs, energy density /kg will become seriously important.
0.25 kw/kg (battery)
90+kw/kg (hydrogen)
8kw/kg (petrol)
i.e 1kg of hydrogen has the same power as the 650+kg battery pack in a model S.
I can't imagine 2029 petrol lease deals will have good guaranteed final values.
Can't see it personally. My reason for that is it compares to the heating industry. It was 10 years ago when the UK government said that fossil fuel boilers would not be allowed in new build houses and only heat pumps and/or other renewable heat sources would be in building regulations from 2015. Didn't happen. The government is now saying it will happen in 2025. Can't see that either.
Simple fact is that the heat pumps (particularly air source) don't compare on efficiency to gas boilers, even a wider gap when they're needed the most i.e winter. Where available gas is still the better choice financially and for efficiency over renewable sources. The incentive schemes also don't allow any form of boiler as a back up.
The technology needs to catch up.
Simple fact is that the heat pumps (particularly air source) don't compare on efficiency to gas boilers, even a wider gap when they're needed the most i.e winter. Where available gas is still the better choice financially and for efficiency over renewable sources. The incentive schemes also don't allow any form of boiler as a back up.
The technology needs to catch up.
Massive problems with this, battery charging technology needs to improve greatly as when the batteries are flat you can't wait half an hour to charge up and go.
Millions of people who live in flats and terrace houses with no designated parking spaces, how are they going to charge their cars?
Most residential roads, shops, offices will need to have millions of chargers on the road side, that won't happen in 10 years, who will pay for it? the government is struggling now COVID has emptied the piggy bank.
My worry for my DB9 is that they'll probably increase the tax to such a high level it's like daylight robbery, plus the fuel duty will rise to persuade normal car owner's to dump their ICE cars.
I think around 2040-45 most petrol stations will stop selling petrol and just be charging stations, you'll have to plan your journey so you don't run out of petrol, the availability of petrol will massively reduce, maybe install a second tank in the boot for long journey's.
Some Aston owners might have them converted to electric, that IMO takes the heart out of the car.
Millions of people who live in flats and terrace houses with no designated parking spaces, how are they going to charge their cars?
Most residential roads, shops, offices will need to have millions of chargers on the road side, that won't happen in 10 years, who will pay for it? the government is struggling now COVID has emptied the piggy bank.
My worry for my DB9 is that they'll probably increase the tax to such a high level it's like daylight robbery, plus the fuel duty will rise to persuade normal car owner's to dump their ICE cars.
I think around 2040-45 most petrol stations will stop selling petrol and just be charging stations, you'll have to plan your journey so you don't run out of petrol, the availability of petrol will massively reduce, maybe install a second tank in the boot for long journey's.
Some Aston owners might have them converted to electric, that IMO takes the heart out of the car.
dg73 said:
...... I just wonder what they [Aston Martin] will be doing 10 years from now, when the curtain falls on 100% of their current product offering. Their failed attempt at the Rapide E doesnt bode well, and they are probably too small to be able to fund wholesale redevelopment of their entire range to electric ......
Your post David, makes me wonder whether you missed the recent announcement by AML.
They now have an agreement to buy electric drive systems from Mercedes.
To obtain that agreement, they are having to give 20% of the Company to Mercedes, but of course it immediately solves the previously impossible, development cost problem.
Record your current Aston Martin exhaust sounds, then you will have something to listen to in your future electric Aston Martin.
but they are allowing hybrids to continue a bit longer aren't they?
So I suspect ICE fuels will not skyrocket per litre, more likely the taxation system will change to miles driven per month/annum form of taxation - albeit that will need a system which stops clocking, and allows accurate mileage calculation - but given we don't want ID cards as a nation, big brother tracking your mileage (aside from MOT time) will probably cause some to push back on such a system.
I for one would welcome paying for miles travelled - I could tax 4 of my cars at almost £0 as I probably do no more than 300 miles per annum between them hence they are currently sorned.
So I suspect ICE fuels will not skyrocket per litre, more likely the taxation system will change to miles driven per month/annum form of taxation - albeit that will need a system which stops clocking, and allows accurate mileage calculation - but given we don't want ID cards as a nation, big brother tracking your mileage (aside from MOT time) will probably cause some to push back on such a system.
I for one would welcome paying for miles travelled - I could tax 4 of my cars at almost £0 as I probably do no more than 300 miles per annum between them hence they are currently sorned.
Im lucky enough to have a Tesla and a Rapide S. With home charging the Tesla is the most practical and easy to live with car Ive ever had but comparing it to the old school brutish charm of a V12 Aston is not a meaningful comparison. I love both for different reasons.
As a family guy living in London and occasional commuter the Tesla wins hands down most of the time, but for those special occassions the Rapide stirs the soul which no Tesla will likely ever do. I just cant ever imagine buying a silent Aston, its too far removed from the sonerous old school brutish brand image that I love it for.
As others have said, ICE taxation/ discouragment is only going to get more pronounced to encourage legacy ICE owners to switch to EVs.
This is an unstoppable global theme which was in train before Boris and Covid and will remain well after both are gone.
As EVs become much more widely adopted I suspect social attitudes will sour against people like me driving around in V12s which I suspect will be a more poignant deliberation on ownership rather than a few extra hundred quid a year on road tax.
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As a family guy living in London and occasional commuter the Tesla wins hands down most of the time, but for those special occassions the Rapide stirs the soul which no Tesla will likely ever do. I just cant ever imagine buying a silent Aston, its too far removed from the sonerous old school brutish brand image that I love it for.
As others have said, ICE taxation/ discouragment is only going to get more pronounced to encourage legacy ICE owners to switch to EVs.
This is an unstoppable global theme which was in train before Boris and Covid and will remain well after both are gone.
As EVs become much more widely adopted I suspect social attitudes will sour against people like me driving around in V12s which I suspect will be a more poignant deliberation on ownership rather than a few extra hundred quid a year on road tax.
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ks, im going to enjoy mine whatever the outcome, life too short to be worrying about values, just get out there and enjoy them for what they are.As soon as I'm not allowed to drive mine on the road the gorgeous interior will be ripped out and it will be converted into a track car to enjoy purely as a toy and not a form of transportation. Surely that will still be allowed. Won't have to pay any road fund license so they won't get a penny out of me that way 
If ICE car sales are banned in 2030. Who will finance (PCP etc) a new car in 2027? I can't see manufacturers offering a high residual to keep the monthlies down. So that gives 6-7 years of ICE sales. Assuming Marcus Rashford doesn't start campaigning for ICE cars to continue and force another government u turn.
All cars, not just AM
All cars, not just AM
Would it be sensible for me to consider buying an 8 year old, battery electric car? Very low mileage and not too expensive.
The salesman told me there are no worries, because the batteries are not normal car batteries, they are a special type which last for ages.
Apparently, they are built in between the double floor of the car, which keeps them in good condition. They will never need to be changed, because they last the lifetime of the car.
I've been saying for some time now (and been mostly mocked, derided or ignored) that the lead up to a ban on new ICE sales will be simultaneously accompanied by disincentives and financial penalties for any existing ICE cars, especially high performance, high emissions cars.
Mainly in the form of swingeing RFL rises, increased ULEZ/congestion charging and ever stricter mot emissions testing.
Mainly in the form of swingeing RFL rises, increased ULEZ/congestion charging and ever stricter mot emissions testing.
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