CV19 - Is a 'zero covid' strategy the better way?
Discussion
I think it's pretty clear by now that Boris's 'whack a mole'/stay safe, control the virus/protect the NHS/gradual herd immunity strategy is utterly impossible. That was obvious to anyone with a modicum of scientific reasoning ability right from the start - trying to manage exponential propogation through 70 million people with ever varying rules, guidelines and advice. It's just completely unworkable. And the more virus you have out there, the greater the opportunity for it to mutate. Oops.
Seriously, the far easten countries must be looking on in total bewilderment at the way the west has handled coronavirus. I don't really believe China's statistics, but it's difficult to deny that their approach has been more successful than ours. Other far east countries have similarly low rates, or are they all under reporting? And Australia and NZ are proof that it can work in western countries too.
Whack a mole strategy can only work if cases/outbreaks are very sparse. But when it's already out of control, it's got no chance. Imagine that for every mole you whack, two new ones pop up - it very quickly gets completely out of hand. To many people it was obvious that the government were stupid to even consider this strategy - 'We predict it'll kill 500k people in this country. But if we slow down it's propogation, it'll kill them more slowly, so at least the hospitals and morgues won't overflow.' Really for all this approach is worth, we might as well have just let it take it's natural course and claim it's victims quick, while we all got on with out lives. But no, we've got the worst of both now - economy flushed down the toilet, and still many people dying. They thought they could open up a firework and do a controlled burn with the contents.
The government were (as usual) short sighted from the outset - they didn't want to have a total lock down because it'd damage the ecomomy. But I think it's now fairly clear that a hard, short lock down would've caused less damage than this ongoing catastrophe. They thought they could open up a firework and do a controlled burn with the contents.
A SAGE scientist recently admitted that a 'zero covid' strategy is the only way to manage a pandemic. I'm not sure it'll be possible to put the genie back in the bottle now, but might be worth a try - a proper full on lockdown for 3 weeks. Not some half assed attempt of 'work from home - if you can', or tiers where it's ok to go to the pub for 15 pints as long as you buy a scotch egg and wear a mask when you go for a piss.
Seriously, the far easten countries must be looking on in total bewilderment at the way the west has handled coronavirus. I don't really believe China's statistics, but it's difficult to deny that their approach has been more successful than ours. Other far east countries have similarly low rates, or are they all under reporting? And Australia and NZ are proof that it can work in western countries too.
Whack a mole strategy can only work if cases/outbreaks are very sparse. But when it's already out of control, it's got no chance. Imagine that for every mole you whack, two new ones pop up - it very quickly gets completely out of hand. To many people it was obvious that the government were stupid to even consider this strategy - 'We predict it'll kill 500k people in this country. But if we slow down it's propogation, it'll kill them more slowly, so at least the hospitals and morgues won't overflow.' Really for all this approach is worth, we might as well have just let it take it's natural course and claim it's victims quick, while we all got on with out lives. But no, we've got the worst of both now - economy flushed down the toilet, and still many people dying. They thought they could open up a firework and do a controlled burn with the contents.
The government were (as usual) short sighted from the outset - they didn't want to have a total lock down because it'd damage the ecomomy. But I think it's now fairly clear that a hard, short lock down would've caused less damage than this ongoing catastrophe. They thought they could open up a firework and do a controlled burn with the contents.
A SAGE scientist recently admitted that a 'zero covid' strategy is the only way to manage a pandemic. I'm not sure it'll be possible to put the genie back in the bottle now, but might be worth a try - a proper full on lockdown for 3 weeks. Not some half assed attempt of 'work from home - if you can', or tiers where it's ok to go to the pub for 15 pints as long as you buy a scotch egg and wear a mask when you go for a piss.
mjb1 said:
The government were (as usual) short sighted from the outset - they didn't want to have a total lock down because it'd damage the ecomomy. But I think it's now fairly clear that a hard, short lock down would've caused less damage than this ongoing catastrophe. They thought they could open up a firework and do a controlled burn with the contents.
A SAGE scientist recently admitted that a 'zero covid' strategy is the only way to manage a pandemic. I'm not sure it'll be possible to put the genie back in the bottle now, but might be worth a try - a proper full on lockdown for 3 weeks. Not some half assed attempt of 'work from home - if you can', or tiers where it's ok to go to the pub for 15 pints as long as you buy a scotch egg and wear a mask when you go for a piss.
Don’t know the answer to your question but I would take a 3-4 week full lockdown over a 3-4 months+ partial lockdown if I had the choice. Assuming it would work that is.A SAGE scientist recently admitted that a 'zero covid' strategy is the only way to manage a pandemic. I'm not sure it'll be possible to put the genie back in the bottle now, but might be worth a try - a proper full on lockdown for 3 weeks. Not some half assed attempt of 'work from home - if you can', or tiers where it's ok to go to the pub for 15 pints as long as you buy a scotch egg and wear a mask when you go for a piss.
Diplomatico said:
How do you stop it coming back in though? With planes landing from all over the globe every few minutes at Heathrow I can’t see it working.
I stand by to be corrected, but I think this is one of the reasons that the Oz lockdown worked.How many flights per day do we have coming in from CHina, Brazil, etc.?
Anyone suggesting we go for a zero Covid strategy is utterly insane and should be rightly ridiculed.
You cannot eliminate an endemic virus through any sort of lockdown. Even if you are shutting everything - all hospitals closed entirely for weeks, 'key workers' not allowed into work, people have to live on what they have in their cupboards for weeks as supermarkets will be closed - I doubt it could be done.
For any supporters of 'firebreak' or 'circuit breaker' lockdowns - how did that work for Wales or England in November?
You cannot eliminate an endemic virus through any sort of lockdown. Even if you are shutting everything - all hospitals closed entirely for weeks, 'key workers' not allowed into work, people have to live on what they have in their cupboards for weeks as supermarkets will be closed - I doubt it could be done.
For any supporters of 'firebreak' or 'circuit breaker' lockdowns - how did that work for Wales or England in November?
gazapc said:
Anyone suggesting we go for a zero Covid strategy is utterly insane and should be rightly ridiculed.
You cannot eliminate an endemic virus through any sort of lockdown. Even if you are shutting everything - all hospitals closed entirely for weeks, 'key workers' not allowed into work, people have to live on what they have in their cupboards for weeks as supermarkets will be closed - I doubt it could be done.
For any supporters of 'firebreak' or 'circuit breaker' lockdowns - how did that work for Wales or England in November?
I don't think anyone is suggesting the 'Zero Covid' strategy now - we're just reflecting on whether it should have been the strategy to begin with.You cannot eliminate an endemic virus through any sort of lockdown. Even if you are shutting everything - all hospitals closed entirely for weeks, 'key workers' not allowed into work, people have to live on what they have in their cupboards for weeks as supermarkets will be closed - I doubt it could be done.
For any supporters of 'firebreak' or 'circuit breaker' lockdowns - how did that work for Wales or England in November?
There are several countries around the world that you can absolutely elimate an endemic virus through lockdown. You obviously can't do it when you've got 30,000 new cases a day.
A few cases will inevitably crop up, but with extremely aggressive measures you can stop these things early and quickly.
The issue is that our population wouldn't tolerate it. They need to see the problem before it can be fixed.
If the UK, in the knowledge that it was heading our way had;
- Closed the borders barring carefully managed imports/exports (and subsequently permitted carefully controlled personal/business travel)
- Gone into a 4 week lockdown, closing all eateries/pubs/non-essential shops
- Had an aggressive track and trace system
Then we would be talking single-digit cases, and possible eradication in the UK.
The issue is that it would be incredibly unpopular to start with - to the point that the government might not be able to pass it. The public wouldn't tolerate such measures when they're hearing about 1 case per day in the UK, or perhaps 2. Secondly it requires the foresight that it will be a huge problem at a time when little is known of the illness.
Let me ask you this - I put you in a time machine, and take you back to January 2020. In the news you see a mention of 20 people getting ill from an unknown virus in China. What do you do?
Edited by anonymous-user on Thursday 24th December 00:38
Edited by anonymous-user on Thursday 24th December 00:41
gazapc said:
Anyone suggesting we go for a zero Covid strategy is utterly insane and should be rightly ridiculed.
You cannot eliminate an endemic virus through any sort of lockdown. Even if you are shutting everything - all hospitals closed entirely for weeks, 'key workers' not allowed into work, people have to live on what they have in their cupboards for weeks as supermarkets will be closed - I doubt it could be done.
For any supporters of 'firebreak' or 'circuit breaker' lockdowns - how did that work for Wales or England in November?
You cannot eliminate an endemic virus through any sort of lockdown. Even if you are shutting everything - all hospitals closed entirely for weeks, 'key workers' not allowed into work, people have to live on what they have in their cupboards for weeks as supermarkets will be closed - I doubt it could be done.
For any supporters of 'firebreak' or 'circuit breaker' lockdowns - how did that work for Wales or England in November?
It might be doable with a global, properly enforced lockdown. Though the simple act of enforcing the lockdown would make the enforcers vulnerable to transmission. In addition, millions would die of starvation, hypothermia etc as food deliveries stopped and the power went out. If just one region of the world wasn’t 100% thorough, it would all be for nothing. Local lockdowns just leave you vulnerable to imported infection as soon as the doors open and are utterly pointless.
There is a nettle that many are unwilling to grasp - that this is a disease that is relevant to the elderly and infirm. In the rest of the population, this is not a big deal compared to illnesses that we live with on a daily basis. Would I rather get bowel cancer or COVID? COVID every time, but this does not stop me eating bacon and other stuff that jacks up my risk of bowel cancer.
IMO the focus should have been on protecting the vulnerable (which is not the same as sending COVID patients back into care homes from hospitals). In many cases, this is really not hard. In some cases, it is a bit hard, but what fraction of the £240 billion we’ve spaffed on “saving the economy” would be needed to (say) provide childcare for someone so Granny doesn’t need to get infected.
ThatGuyWhoDoesStuff said:
Mandatory negative test before boarding at your departure airport (at your own cost), detailed health screening on arrival, mandatory quarantine on arrival and very assertive track and trace.
How very 'new normal dystopian'.I don't want to live in that world.
ThatGuyWhoDoesStuff said:
- Closed the borders barring carefully managed imports/exports (and subsequently permitted carefully controlled personal/business travel)
- Gone into a 4 week lockdown, closing all eateries/pubs/non-essential shops
- Had an aggressive track and trace system
Germany tried this one. It didn't work. It can't work unless you're the last island on the flight to nowhere, like New Zealand.- Gone into a 4 week lockdown, closing all eateries/pubs/non-essential shops
- Had an aggressive track and trace system
Even Australia haven't managed to do the lockdown thing to eradicate it - they are in a real mess now as half a dozen cases locks down an entire state and prevents cross state travel. We're nearly a year in and they're still unable to control it.
Protect the vulnerable, get everyone else back to work. Some people will die, but that's nature. We shouldn't expect the government to protect us from everything.
Landcrab_Six said:
How very 'new normal dystopian'.
I don't want to live in that world.
What world do you think you're living in? Off you go and try to book a holiday then.......I don't want to live in that world.
The whole point is that it wouldn't be a 'new normal' (which is exactly what we have now). It would be a short, sharp effort.
ThatGuyWhoDoesStuff said:
Landcrab_Six said:
How very 'new normal dystopian'.
I don't want to live in that world.
What world do you think you're living in? Off you go and try to book a holiday then.......I don't want to live in that world.
ked. But that's no reason to make it even more fked for the remainder of my natural life.Testing and health passports are a slippery slope to 2 tier societies, ghettoised populations, ostracised groups with identifiable badges and a very short step to 'eliminating' the 'problem'.
Landcrab_Six said:
Germany tried this one. It didn't work. It can't work unless you're the last island on the flight to nowhere, like New Zealand.
Even Australia haven't managed to do the lockdown thing to eradicate it - they are in a real mess now as half a dozen cases locks down an entire state and prevents cross state travel. We're nearly a year in and they're still unable to control it.
Protect the vulnerable, get everyone else back to work. Some people will die, but that's nature. We shouldn't expect the government to protect us from everything.
Germany didn't do anything of the sort. Even Australia haven't managed to do the lockdown thing to eradicate it - they are in a real mess now as half a dozen cases locks down an entire state and prevents cross state travel. We're nearly a year in and they're still unable to control it.
Protect the vulnerable, get everyone else back to work. Some people will die, but that's nature. We shouldn't expect the government to protect us from everything.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in...
And Australia struggling to control it? Their absolute worst caseload was 400 per day, and for the last 3 months hasn't been higher than about 20 per day. The vast majority of Australia is operating completely as normal?
Edited by anonymous-user on Thursday 24th December 01:07
Landcrab_Six said:
It's utterly fked. But that's no reason to make it even more fked for the remainder of my natural life.
Testing and health passports are a slippery slope to 2 tier societies, ghettoised populations, ostracised groups with identifiable badges and a very short step to 'eliminating' the 'problem'.
I'm not saying to do it now. It obviously can't work now. Hell it can't work beyond a few thousand cases, you've lost control of it.ked. But that's no reason to make it even more fked for the remainder of my natural life.Testing and health passports are a slippery slope to 2 tier societies, ghettoised populations, ostracised groups with identifiable badges and a very short step to 'eliminating' the 'problem'.
But if we've have just taken strong measures at the very beginning - January. We'd be living completely normally now. The only exception would be foreign travel.
ThatGuyWhoDoesStuff said:
They tried a hard lockdown and aggressive track and trace.Everyone hailed them as an example to us all, until it went tits up recently.
Stopping cross border travel was more challenging, but hard lockdown, isolation and track & trace was seen to be the solution. It isn't, because this gets everywhere unless you're an isolated island in the middle of nowhere.
Landcrab_Six said:
They tried a hard lockdown and aggressive track and trace.
Everyone hailed them as an example to us all, until it went tits up recently.
Stopping cross border travel was more challenging, but hard lockdown, isolation and track & trace was seen to be the solution. It isn't, because this gets everywhere unless you're a small and isolated island.
They categorically did not try a 'hard lockdown.' They pretty much did what we did.Everyone hailed them as an example to us all, until it went tits up recently.
Stopping cross border travel was more challenging, but hard lockdown, isolation and track & trace was seen to be the solution. It isn't, because this gets everywhere unless you're a small and isolated island.
I don't know where you're getting your information from but you're just factually wrong. The timeline of their actions is given in significant detail in the link provided.
On 11th March for example, with a few thousands cases, the German Government specifically were stating they wouldn't close the borders. There were no restrictions on travel to Italy, or from China. Later in March, with 5000 active cases, only a few districts closed bars and restaurants. As of 18th March they were still taking passengers from Iran and China with not even temperature testing.
Stop making things up.
Edited by anonymous-user on Thursday 24th December 01:14
ThatGuyWhoDoesStuff said:
I'm not saying to do it now. It obviously can't work now. Hell it can't work beyond a few thousand cases, you've lost control of it.
But if we've have just taken strong measures at the very beginning - January. We'd be living completely normally now. The only exception would be foreign travel.
We wouldn't, because we are reliant on imports. See Australia. It pops up there and they go police state crazy when it does. New Zealand (and arguably, the Isle of Man) are the only places they've successfully done this, but NZ is an isolated place with low population density and has been willing to tolerate some fairly serious abuses of police power to stay in control of it. Just because Saint Jacina smiles a lot, doesn't mean she can't be an authoritarian dictator.But if we've have just taken strong measures at the very beginning - January. We'd be living completely normally now. The only exception would be foreign travel.
Landcrab_Six said:
We wouldn't, because we are reliant on imports. See Australia. It pops up there and they go police state crazy when it does. New Zealand (and arguably, the Isle of Man) are the only places they've successfully done this, but NZ is an isolated place with low population density and has been willing to tolerate some fairly serious abuses of police power to stay in control of it. Just because Saint Jacina smiles a lot, doesn't mean she can't be an authoritarian dictator.
Again - 'see Australia.' Go and look at Australia then. Police state crazy? They have less restrictions than we do. Imports? What, food? You think covid is travelling on food?
I'm going to stop this conversation. You keep spouting garbage. Perhaps you should review the 'facts' that you shout about.
You are completely ignoring the police abuse in Australia as you appear to be a bit of a lockdown enthusiast.
It works for isolated wastelands, it doesn’t work for places like Europe where a true hard border can’t exist.
Germany did lockdowns with aggressive tracing. They are in a worse place than us mow.
Australia locked down a state believing pizza was spreading it.
It works for isolated wastelands, it doesn’t work for places like Europe where a true hard border can’t exist.
Germany did lockdowns with aggressive tracing. They are in a worse place than us mow.
Australia locked down a state believing pizza was spreading it.
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