Public attendance in 2021...
Discussion
..what do we think will happen?
Had an email from Silverstone woodlands campsite the other day regarding our reassigned 2020 tickets who seem pretty certain its going ahead. I guess they have to be.
I would like to think positive but the hyper risk aversity in general makes me doubtful - in march I thought this s
t would blow over in a few weeks but was obviously very wrong.
Had an email from Silverstone woodlands campsite the other day regarding our reassigned 2020 tickets who seem pretty certain its going ahead. I guess they have to be.
I would like to think positive but the hyper risk aversity in general makes me doubtful - in march I thought this s
t would blow over in a few weeks but was obviously very wrong.10126 Torino said:
Crystal Ball ?
Literally no one knows .
Some organisers have already cancelled events for summer 2021 , Isle of Man TT gone !
I guess a lot of these things required planning and investment now so people will be cutting losses and just not bothering. Hell and what is the state of the infrastructure businesses that supports these events?Literally no one knows .
Some organisers have already cancelled events for summer 2021 , Isle of Man TT gone !
I gather no music festivals are going ahead, they of course have the added complication of what is normally international line ups, although I guess with the uks wonderfully rich music scene you could cobble something fairly impressive together from who's available at short notice.
I’d expect many events to be selling tickets in the hope that events will go ahead with public attendance. Clearly they might have to change that plan and change it relatively early (before they start wasting too much money in preparation for the crowds).
I suspect that by the summer we will see enough people vaccinated that events will go ahead but with some constraints (as only a % will be vaccinated).
As above the lack of COVID insurance coverage will be an issue.
I suspect the corporates won’t be buying packages for 2021 entraining and so it will mostly be for paying public.
Personally can’t see myself flying, going to bars and restaurants, staying in hotels, going to events, going on foreign holidays etc in 2021 but I suspect there will be plenty enough who will be ready and willing to go ASAP.
I suspect that by the summer we will see enough people vaccinated that events will go ahead but with some constraints (as only a % will be vaccinated).
As above the lack of COVID insurance coverage will be an issue.
I suspect the corporates won’t be buying packages for 2021 entraining and so it will mostly be for paying public.
Personally can’t see myself flying, going to bars and restaurants, staying in hotels, going to events, going on foreign holidays etc in 2021 but I suspect there will be plenty enough who will be ready and willing to go ASAP.
Teddy Lop said:
..what do we think will happen?
Had an email from Silverstone woodlands campsite the other day regarding our reassigned 2020 tickets who seem pretty certain its going ahead. I guess they have to be.
I would like to think positive but the hyper risk aversity in general makes me doubtful - in march I thought this st would blow over in a few weeks but was obviously very wrong.
I normally work 3 times a year on the motor show circuit across Europe and they're mostly open to buy tickets for next year. But the planning we're doing is starting to feel daft - I expect none of them will happen. As a supplier we're doing all we can, but we're basically paying the plans lip service and awaiting the point at which the organisers cancel. These events have the same problem I suspect F1 will have next year - the contracts were signed and people committed earlier in the year when things looked more positive. They all now have to sit and wait and can't call it off again until it's proven unrealistic.Had an email from Silverstone woodlands campsite the other day regarding our reassigned 2020 tickets who seem pretty certain its going ahead. I guess they have to be.
I would like to think positive but the hyper risk aversity in general makes me doubtful - in march I thought this s
t would blow over in a few weeks but was obviously very wrong.I would however suggest you do the same we are doing here, act as normal. Use the vouchers and book - support the venue. If it doesn't happen then roll them over for another year, at least that way you're doing your bit to leave them a bank balance for whenever they can get going again. This sodding virus isn't an end game, it's pause button. It puts things on hold. Best way to deal with it is to carry on as normal, if you can afford to do so - and leave the money you can afford with the venue you want to survive.
What a weird year
Gazzab said:
I’d expect many events to be selling tickets in the hope that events will go ahead with public attendance. Clearly they might have to change that plan and change it relatively early (before they start wasting too much money in preparation for the crowds).
I suspect that by the summer we will see enough people vaccinated that events will go ahead but with some constraints (as only a % will be vaccinated).
As above the lack of COVID insurance coverage will be an issue.
I suspect the corporates won’t be buying packages for 2021 entraining and so it will mostly be for paying public.
Personally can’t see myself flying, going to bars and restaurants, staying in hotels, going to events, going on foreign holidays etc in 2021 but I suspect there will be plenty enough who will be ready and willing to go ASAP.
There will be quite a lot of events that dont have many tickets left to sell as they rolled over tickets from the cancelled events this year. So in effect they dont have to do a lot until nearer the time.I suspect that by the summer we will see enough people vaccinated that events will go ahead but with some constraints (as only a % will be vaccinated).
As above the lack of COVID insurance coverage will be an issue.
I suspect the corporates won’t be buying packages for 2021 entraining and so it will mostly be for paying public.
Personally can’t see myself flying, going to bars and restaurants, staying in hotels, going to events, going on foreign holidays etc in 2021 but I suspect there will be plenty enough who will be ready and willing to go ASAP.
After today's announcements I took a deep dive in to the latest figures... Given the vaccination rate and the delay in getting dependable data as to how effective the vaccines really are, the first half of next year looks in some ways more worrying than the start of this sodding pandemic.
Currently most governments seem to support the international sports industry providing they follow the standards set by F1. But filling stands with paying punters seems a long way off...
I think it's unlikely we'll see fans at races until the second half of the year at the earliest.
Currently most governments seem to support the international sports industry providing they follow the standards set by F1. But filling stands with paying punters seems a long way off...
I think it's unlikely we'll see fans at races until the second half of the year at the earliest.
TheDeuce said:
After today's announcements I took a deep dive in to the latest figures... Given the vaccination rate and the delay in getting dependable data as to how effective the vaccines really are, the first half of next year looks in some ways more worrying than the start of this sodding pandemic.
Currently most governments seem to support the international sports industry providing they follow the standards set by F1. But filling stands with paying punters seems a long way off...
I think it's unlikely we'll see fans at races until the second half of the year at the earliest.
Agreed. We have no idea at what rate the vaccines will be administered, how effective they are (in stopping spreading) or when we reach ‘tipping point’ (ie at what point have enough people had it that the vast majority can return to a sort of normal). Feels like attending f1 races (certainly in foreign countries) is post June at the earliest. Currently most governments seem to support the international sports industry providing they follow the standards set by F1. But filling stands with paying punters seems a long way off...
I think it's unlikely we'll see fans at races until the second half of the year at the earliest.
Gazzab said:
TheDeuce said:
After today's announcements I took a deep dive in to the latest figures... Given the vaccination rate and the delay in getting dependable data as to how effective the vaccines really are, the first half of next year looks in some ways more worrying than the start of this sodding pandemic.
Currently most governments seem to support the international sports industry providing they follow the standards set by F1. But filling stands with paying punters seems a long way off...
I think it's unlikely we'll see fans at races until the second half of the year at the earliest.
Agreed. We have no idea at what rate the vaccines will be administered, how effective they are (in stopping spreading) or when we reach ‘tipping point’ (ie at what point have enough people had it that the vast majority can return to a sort of normal). Feels like attending f1 races (certainly in foreign countries) is post June at the earliest. Currently most governments seem to support the international sports industry providing they follow the standards set by F1. But filling stands with paying punters seems a long way off...
I think it's unlikely we'll see fans at races until the second half of the year at the earliest.
Best case scenario, as hinted many times recently, it's Easter before any change of tactic can start to be considered. Even if they then reduce restrictions quite rapidly, we're going to be at the summer break before getting to a point at which mass gatherings can be considered.
In summary, I'd book for late in the season. I think you'd have to be a bit nuts to book anything for the first half of the season. The already advised timescales for the existing plans simply won't allow anything that soon.
I do however think liberty and the teams handled this season exceptionally well and will do next season too. The sport itself is going to be well protected and will continue.
Honestly I'd say think of an event date work back four months as that's roughly when the organisers will have to commit to their suppliers that it's happening for everything to be in place. Then think what the environment will be like at that point.
So August events will likely be decided in April/May. Silverstone? As a late July event if they do allow public attendance it will be a much reduced capacity and I can't see camping being allowed or for that matter any multiday event with camp-sites. Silverstone woodlands as independent of Silverstone circuit will have to plan as if it is happening until the circuit advises otherwise.
So August events will likely be decided in April/May. Silverstone? As a late July event if they do allow public attendance it will be a much reduced capacity and I can't see camping being allowed or for that matter any multiday event with camp-sites. Silverstone woodlands as independent of Silverstone circuit will have to plan as if it is happening until the circuit advises otherwise.
b0rk said:
Honestly I'd say think of an event date work back four months as that's roughly when the organisers will have to commit to their suppliers that it's happening for everything to be in place. Then think what the environment will be like at that point.
So August events will likely be decided in April/May. Silverstone? As a late July event if they do allow public attendance it will be a much reduced capacity and I can't see camping being allowed or for that matter any multiday event with camp-sites. Silverstone woodlands as independent of Silverstone circuit will have to plan as if it is happening until the circuit advises otherwise.
Quite agree. And looking at the numbers now, and anticipating some shocking numbers in a few weeks time thanks to Christmas mingling... I'm expecting yet more increases in restrictions which is bound to make venues and suppliers less ambitious about anything they can commit to in the near future.So August events will likely be decided in April/May. Silverstone? As a late July event if they do allow public attendance it will be a much reduced capacity and I can't see camping being allowed or for that matter any multiday event with camp-sites. Silverstone woodlands as independent of Silverstone circuit will have to plan as if it is happening until the circuit advises otherwise.
This pandemic has taken a nasty turn and the 'silver bullet' that is the vaccine, is by all accounts going to be far slower to roll out than we might hope.
First half of 2021, I can't see spectators being desired at all. Second half.. only if everything being done to fight the virus right now works as hoped and on time - which itself is tricky as the general public are now so tired of restrictions, the measures imposed aren't exactly being adhered to very much... At least not where I live. I think public lethargy of CV rules and worries, will itself drag out the current situation. It doesn't help that almost a year later pretty much everyone has found discrete ways of bending the rules in an attempt to keep their day to day lives running in a semi normal fashion. Human nature and entirely understandable of course.
kambites said:
One also has to consider where the event is being held. The UK is likely to be one of the first countries in the world to manage to vaccinate most of its high-risk population, but many other countries on the F1 calendar may not even manage it by the end of 2021. Gazzab said:
The government hasn’t, I don’t think, indicated when the ‘tipping point’ will be reached. Do we need 30%, 50%...90% of the population vaccinated before things can be relatively ‘normal’? I assume, particularly with the latest strain, that it’s nearer 90%. No idea when we will get to 90%...July?
I think much less. The aim isn't to stop the virus spreading, at least in the short term. It's to stop it spreading to people who it will make seriously ill. I read somewhere that immunising the most at risk 5% of the population should reduce hospital admissions by over 90%, When the government eases lockdown is more a political question than a medical one, but so far everything they've done has erred on the side of avoiding restrictions. My guess is that we'll see them attempt to relax lockdown by the end of February, which I think will be too early and will cause deaths to spike again; so what happens beyond that is anyone's guess.
Edited by kambites on Friday 1st January 20:43
Gazzab said:
kambites said:
One also has to consider where the event is being held. The UK is likely to be one of the first countries in the world to manage to vaccinate most of its high-risk population, but many other countries on the F1 calendar may not even manage it by the end of 2021. Can’t see full-capacity sporting events until middle of the summer at the earliest though, Silverstone is going to be hit and miss for the timing, and will have to make the call early when deciding whether to deploy all the temporary stands and infrastructure.
The EU vaccine programme is miles behind the UK one and likely to remain so, as the vaccines they bought more of up front are later to arrive. It could be well into the autumn before we see any crowds at European races.
It is of course possible that some promoter or other can get hold of 100,000 tests, test everyone the day before the event and convince the local government that it’s safe - after all, that’s what F1 themselves did last year with their own people.
Gazzab said:
kambites said:
One also has to consider where the event is being held. The UK is likely to be one of the first countries in the world to manage to vaccinate most of its high-risk population, but many other countries on the F1 calendar may not even manage it by the end of 2021. I think the response by UK scientists has been incredible, it's astounding really. But the story of 2021 will be how quickly the fix can be rolled out and reading the data to try and set a % target for how effective control of the virus is via vaccination and where we need to get to. That's the bit that takes a good few months to even start to get an idea of when we might hope to get back to 'normal'.
At least we have something to fight back with now. I suspect quite a bit more patience will be required before we see the benefits sadly.
Sandpit Steve said:
kambites said:
Of course this is all assuming the virus doesn't mutate again to become immune to the vaccines, which is far from certain.
If that happens, all bets are off and this damn thing is going to be with us for years. The good news is that the less people that have it, the less opportunity for mutation exists. So just dealing with the current abundance of the virus would itself reduce the risk of any particularly unfortunate or difficult new strains.
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