When will the population be vaccinated by

[babelfish]

Media talks about vulnerable being vaccinated by Feb, figures say:

Lowest estimate is 12million in the higher risk categories need vaccinating. Thats 24million doses.

70 days to do it in, even then not all will be immune to end off March. Anyway that’s 342,857 vaccines a day

In the first 3 weeks they’ve done 600,000, that’s 28,571 a day.

So the rate needs to be increased a bit to meet targets,

Then who is going to do it?

Mass testing relies partially on the army taking the sample out of your car window. Are they going to be injecting you?

[Defcon5]

When is furlough scheduled to end? I’d wager that is when they expect to scale down the tiers/lockdowns

[rsbmw]

2m a week when there are roughly 9000 GP practice in the UK equates to approx 32 doses a day per practice, or 3 hours worth of 5 minute appointments for a single clinician per day. That seems fairly trivial and that’s without hospitals, pharmacies or any community vaccine clinics being involved.

The issue with the current vaccine is storage and logistics, that shouldn’t be such a problem with other vaccines on the way.

[sjabrown]

rsbmw said:

2m a week when there are roughly 9000 GP practice in the UK equates to approx 32 doses a day per practice, or 3 hours worth of 5 minute appointments for a single clinician per day. That seems fairly trivial and that’s without hospitals, pharmacies or any community vaccine clinics being involved.

The issue with the current vaccine is storage and logistics, that shouldn’t be such a problem with other vaccines on the way.

It'll be 15 minute appointments. I'm reckoning on managing 50 during a 10 hour day. Worth noting that this will be instead of other GP work. To do my list that'll be 40 days of work (small GP surgery, just under 1000 patients).

[sjabrown]

Current situation:waiting patiently. No signs of any Pfirzer vaccine reaching here to start with. Oxford vaccine: still awaiting approval.

Long slog ahead.

[smashing]

fesuvious said:

Reuters story talks of needing to vaccinate 2m per week

I can't see how we will achieve that.

New variety spreads 70% quicker. We haven't seen the spread impact of Christmas yet.

I hope I'm wrong but and explosion in numbers seems certain.

Less people to vaccinate then

[CraigV6]

fesuvious said:

I agree.

However we have done 600k doses in how long?
Meanwhile we have cases rising and thee effects of Christmas and New Year yet to come.

On one side deaths seem steady. Cases are way up though.

I'm not sure we aren't going to have another issue before a Vaccine gets on top of things.

Are cases way up?
Seem to be increasing aligned with increased testing.

What you don’t know can’t hurt you.......

[rdjohn]

The Oxford vaccine should be the game-changer that will allow mass vaccination stations to be deployed. In comparison, the Pfizer vaccine is a niche product.

However, I will believe it when I see it

[MrJuice]

rsbmw said:

2m a week when there are roughly 9000 GP practice in the UK equates to approx 32 doses a day per practice, or 3 hours worth of 5 minute appointments for a single clinician per day. That seems fairly trivial and that’s without hospitals, pharmacies or any community vaccine clinics being involved.

The issue with the current vaccine is storage and logistics, that shouldn’t be such a problem with other vaccines on the way.

That's based on a seven day week. How many practices operate 7 days a week? The £25 fee for giving the two doses will not cover the cost of opening up especially at the weekend.

[cymatty]

Being optimistic I think the constraining factor will be vaccine supply (unless the oxford one uses half dose) and willingness to take up.

I am not sure why people are on about GPs I envisage this being more arena sized buildings doing tens or hundreds of people at once, overseen by a number of healthcare professionals. They are advertising for volunteers who are not medically trained already to do this.

[rsbmw]

sjabrown said:

It'll be 15 minute appointments. I'm reckoning on managing 50 during a 10 hour day. Worth noting that this will be instead of other GP work. To do my list that'll be 40 days of work (small GP surgery, just under 1000 patients).

Purely out of interest, why does it take 15 minutes and is there an opportunity to speed that up as the process beds in?

[voyds9]

I would certainly expect the person giving the injection to check who I am, a flick through medical records to see I am appropriate to give it to, then I need an explanation a point of vaccine and possible side effects so I can make an informed decision.

Recommendation to monitor for 15 mins after injection to look for side effects

[oyster]

MrJuice said:

rsbmw said:

2m a week when there are roughly 9000 GP practice in the UK equates to approx 32 doses a day per practice, or 3 hours worth of 5 minute appointments for a single clinician per day. That seems fairly trivial and that’s without hospitals, pharmacies or any community vaccine clinics being involved.

The issue with the current vaccine is storage and logistics, that shouldn’t be such a problem with other vaccines on the way.

That's based on a seven day week. How many practices operate 7 days a week? The £25 fee for giving the two doses will not cover the cost of opening up especially at the weekend.

Either Covid is deadly and we’re fighting a war against it, or it’s not.

Which is it?
Because you can’t claim it’s so deadly that we need severe freedom curtailments and at the same time decide vaccinations don’t need to be done at the weekend.

[condor]

I was told that if you're allergic to penicillin then you can't have the Pfizer vaccine but will have to wait for the Oxford one. Presumably there are other issues why a patient might not be suitable to have a certain type of vaccine.

[andy43]

voyds9 said:

I would certainly expect the person giving the injection to check who I am, a flick through medical records to see I am appropriate to give it to, then I need an explanation a point of vaccine and possible side effects so I can make an informed decision.

Recommendation to monitor for 15 mins after injection to look for side effects

15 mins wait time, exactly the same as the flu vaccine - I'm out of the door within 90 seconds with those and given the covid transmissibility I think I'll be wearing trainers and rolling my sleeve down on the drive home if possible.
I have said it before - bring the Army in. Logistics is what they do. Big long tent, well ventilated, doc at one end to ask questions, Army doing the jabbing and a wait area with another gp or nurse at the end. Tricky bits will be carparking and helping people who aren't too steady on their feet.
My daughter had a PCR test at a walk through centre using mobile offices laid out in a carpark and it was honestly very well set up - throughput with a system like that would be pretty impressive compared to the average GP surgery.
No vaccines in my area yet from what I can see on the govt website but if the fridge temp Oxford one gets the green light today we'll be really getting going soon.
If the govt fk this up they'll really be in the crap. We have a real opportunity here to get things sorted, quickly, before most countries have even started.

[Douglas Quaid]

fesuvious said:

I agree.

However we have done 600k doses in how long?
Meanwhile we have cases rising and thee effects of Christmas and New Year yet to come.

On one side deaths seem steady. Cases are way up though.

I'm not sure we aren't going to have another issue before a Vaccine gets on top of things.

25% more testing in the week before Christmas. 25% more ‘cases’ found. Percentage of positives is steady so cases aren’t actually increasing. Papers never bother to report that testing capacity increases all the time they just mention the ‘case’ numbers found. For more information just take a look here.

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/

[Crafty_]

rsbmw said:

Purely out of interest, why does it take 15 minutes and is there an opportunity to speed that up as the process beds in?

After the jab the patient is observed for 15 minutes in case of any instant adverse reaction. They did say 20 originally I think?

This article https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/12/26/millio... says the government are indeed aiming for 2m in the first 2 weeks of 2021, but thats jabs, not people. 40m by March.

I'm not quite sure how those figures work out, if they do get to 2m jabs in the next fortnight, that leaves 11 weeks to roll out 38m by end of March ? That wuld be 342 jabs per minute, every minute, 24x7.

I reckon that 40m is the deliveries of vaccines by March, I can't see them all being used by then.

[Pesty]

fesuvious said:

Reuters story talks of needing to vaccinate 2m per week

I can't see how we will achieve that.

New variety spreads 70% quicker. We haven't seen the spread impact of Christmas yet.

I hope I'm wrong but and explosion in numbers seems certain.

OMG 70% we are doomed.

I’ll help you. You can have my shot

[bristolracer]

cymatty said:

I am not sure why people are on about GPs I envisage this being more arena sized buildings doing tens or hundreds of people at once, overseen by a number of healthcare professionals. They are advertising for volunteers who are not medically trained already to do this.

That's fine for cities and large towns, rural areas will be much more challenging, and getting through the population will be much much more time consuming

[andy43]

Pesty said:

fesuvious said:

Reuters story talks of needing to vaccinate 2m per week

I can't see how we will achieve that.

New variety spreads 70% quicker. We haven't seen the spread impact of Christmas yet.

I hope I'm wrong but and explosion in numbers seems certain.

OMG 70% we are doomed.

I’ll help you. You can have my shot

He's right. We haven't seen xmas or new year results yet - it'll be another 10 days for xmas and mid/end Jan before any new year infections hit hospitals.
Herd immunity is an interesting concept that links in with the vaccine and the new strain.
It's based on transmissibility.
If the new variant spreads 10, 20, 50, 70% more efficiently the percentage of the population needing herd immunity by vaccine or infection also goes up - vaccinations could be slowing the R rate as fast as the newer variants increase R through their increased efficiency.
We'll be needing all of those 100m Oxford doses I reckon.
I'll have yours if he doesn't want it

bristolracer said:

cymatty said:

I am not sure why people are on about GPs I envisage this being more arena sized buildings doing tens or hundreds of people at once, overseen by a number of healthcare professionals. They are advertising for volunteers who are not medically trained already to do this.

That's fine for cities and large towns, rural areas will be much more challenging, and getting through the population will be much much more time consuming

Rural will have to travel - or mobile units can go to them - church carpark, tents, anything. I'm sure our govt have thought it all through