Used EV and Battery Degradation
Discussion
Not a rant or bad mouthing EVs but I believe....
I believe no commerical battery ever produced has been able to stand the test of time, i.e. being able to maintain the 100% capacity over time. Even if it did, the battery is still going to draining lot faster once its gets older. In this case, it would be almost impossible to accurately measure the range capacity. The continously degradation of battery means a car that was doing solid 300 miles is likely reduced to 200 after 8 years and then to 100 by the time its a decade old. Even worse probably once you take the UK cold weather and the accessories used to run during cold times.
If you buy an electric car today, i think you gotta be ready for about £5000 - 8000 to replace your battery in 8 years time according to today's advances and estimate in battery technology and by the time you spend 10k to replace the battery, the car is worth less than the battery. So I would expect these people to scrap that car at that time. A lot of battery cars will be going to the scrap heap in 10-15 years from new because logically no one would hang on to an old jalopy and spend £10K.
Now if you play it safe by charging the battery less often with fast charge or not charging beyond 80% and not let it drop to 0% charge can greatly extend the lifespan of the battery and thus the car however i seriosuly doubt most of those who buy EV brand new doesnt really take care of the battery religiously as they got that warranty protection plus most likely to switch the car once the 3-5 year contract is up. So who cares what the state of the battery is going to be like after 5 years
All this means when the car is say over 10 years old and someone with little or basic finaincal support is in the market to buy a cheap used EV, he is not going to be able afford replacing the battery or do the mileage he intends to do say for example, if his job involved evening delivery jobs. You could say there is always the petrol or diesel for such buyers but the concern i am showing here is about the not so distant future once the EVs take over and petrol/ diesel have almost vanished.
Right now, all the talk of town seems to about the how quiet/ how eco friendly/ how cheap to charge up etc the EVs are but barely any discussion on ' what happens once they are old' in regards to battery recycling, battery repair, range drop etc
This is not me trying to promote an agenda or going on about how bad the EVs are or how things were better in my days as i m only 25 years old. Just a genuine concern I feel not many people seems to be aware of or dont wanna talk about
I believe no commerical battery ever produced has been able to stand the test of time, i.e. being able to maintain the 100% capacity over time. Even if it did, the battery is still going to draining lot faster once its gets older. In this case, it would be almost impossible to accurately measure the range capacity. The continously degradation of battery means a car that was doing solid 300 miles is likely reduced to 200 after 8 years and then to 100 by the time its a decade old. Even worse probably once you take the UK cold weather and the accessories used to run during cold times.
If you buy an electric car today, i think you gotta be ready for about £5000 - 8000 to replace your battery in 8 years time according to today's advances and estimate in battery technology and by the time you spend 10k to replace the battery, the car is worth less than the battery. So I would expect these people to scrap that car at that time. A lot of battery cars will be going to the scrap heap in 10-15 years from new because logically no one would hang on to an old jalopy and spend £10K.
Now if you play it safe by charging the battery less often with fast charge or not charging beyond 80% and not let it drop to 0% charge can greatly extend the lifespan of the battery and thus the car however i seriosuly doubt most of those who buy EV brand new doesnt really take care of the battery religiously as they got that warranty protection plus most likely to switch the car once the 3-5 year contract is up. So who cares what the state of the battery is going to be like after 5 years
All this means when the car is say over 10 years old and someone with little or basic finaincal support is in the market to buy a cheap used EV, he is not going to be able afford replacing the battery or do the mileage he intends to do say for example, if his job involved evening delivery jobs. You could say there is always the petrol or diesel for such buyers but the concern i am showing here is about the not so distant future once the EVs take over and petrol/ diesel have almost vanished.
Right now, all the talk of town seems to about the how quiet/ how eco friendly/ how cheap to charge up etc the EVs are but barely any discussion on ' what happens once they are old' in regards to battery recycling, battery repair, range drop etc
This is not me trying to promote an agenda or going on about how bad the EVs are or how things were better in my days as i m only 25 years old. Just a genuine concern I feel not many people seems to be aware of or dont wanna talk about
It has certainly been talked about on here (threads going back at least 5 years):
https://www.pistonheads.com/gassing/topic.asp?h=0&...
https://www.pistonheads.com/gassing/topic.asp?h=0&...
https://www.pistonheads.com/gassing/topic.asp?h=0&...
https://www.pistonheads.com/gassing/topic.asp?h=0&...
https://www.pistonheads.com/gassing/topic.asp?h=0&...
https://www.pistonheads.com/gassing/topic.asp?h=0&...
Even a degraded battery early Leaf is a useful runabout to some people today. With 250+ mile cars being mainstream now even really heavy degredation from that would still mean a very useful practical range for many. Many manufacturers have learned from Nissan’s mistakes and don’t degrade anything like as much anyway. It’s not like a failure of an engine or gearbox that’s uneconomical to fix, we’re talking about a gradual decline in capacity.
While I’m sure some battery swapping might go on, for the vast majority it’ll be more economical to swap to another secondhand car with more capacity available than it would be to swap in a new battery pack. The cars with less and less range just keep being handed down at lower prices to people who have more modest needs.
While I’m sure some battery swapping might go on, for the vast majority it’ll be more economical to swap to another secondhand car with more capacity available than it would be to swap in a new battery pack. The cars with less and less range just keep being handed down at lower prices to people who have more modest needs.
I'd thought unlike phones, the better cars were not going to 100% and down to 0 (despite what the display might say). Unless you go out of your way to make it happen.
Which should stop the worst of those effects.
Then the majority of the battery can be recycled into batteries. Dig it up once, keep using it.
But I do agree, I don't think we'll see the volume of current BEVs running around in 15-20 years, like you would some current ICE cars. They are going to throw up a big bill for the battery at some point and be dropped for a newer one, but hopefully the scrap value of that battery will be higher.
Which should stop the worst of those effects.
Then the majority of the battery can be recycled into batteries. Dig it up once, keep using it.
But I do agree, I don't think we'll see the volume of current BEVs running around in 15-20 years, like you would some current ICE cars. They are going to throw up a big bill for the battery at some point and be dropped for a newer one, but hopefully the scrap value of that battery will be higher.
Lets be quite clear here:
EVERY TIME YOU DRIVE YOUR CAR IT WEARS OUT.
You'll notice i said just "car" ie ANY car, ICE, BEV, FCEV or powered by fairy dust.
A passenger car for the most part, has a design life of 10 years and 150,000 miles. This is irrespective of the energy source for that car.
There is one, big difference though, in that thing that is mostly wearing out for a BEV is solid state and includes diagnostics, so it can tell you, pretty much exactly how worn out it is!
Go buy a second hand ICE and at best you start it, listen for knocks, give it a rev, drive it round the block and really, take a massive gamble it's not about to suddenly and expenisively S**T itself. This is why second hand ICE with say 150,000 miles on the clock are, effectively worthless, because even if they are nominally working perfectly, they are actually worn out, and close to the end of their design lives. You could have a car that drove absolutely perfetly, but at 150,000 miles it would still be worth nothing simply because it might fail.
With a BEV, 30 seconds with a scan tool (or via the "secret" dash display access menus) tells you precisely how worn it is, and a worn battery is very simple to replace or repair.
EVERY TIME YOU DRIVE YOUR CAR IT WEARS OUT.
You'll notice i said just "car" ie ANY car, ICE, BEV, FCEV or powered by fairy dust.
A passenger car for the most part, has a design life of 10 years and 150,000 miles. This is irrespective of the energy source for that car.
There is one, big difference though, in that thing that is mostly wearing out for a BEV is solid state and includes diagnostics, so it can tell you, pretty much exactly how worn out it is!
Go buy a second hand ICE and at best you start it, listen for knocks, give it a rev, drive it round the block and really, take a massive gamble it's not about to suddenly and expenisively S**T itself. This is why second hand ICE with say 150,000 miles on the clock are, effectively worthless, because even if they are nominally working perfectly, they are actually worn out, and close to the end of their design lives. You could have a car that drove absolutely perfetly, but at 150,000 miles it would still be worth nothing simply because it might fail.
With a BEV, 30 seconds with a scan tool (or via the "secret" dash display access menus) tells you precisely how worn it is, and a worn battery is very simple to replace or repair.
Couple of things.
I believe the 8 year lifespan that's mentioned is misleading. Most batteries have an 8 year 100,000 warranty, so it doesn't automatically mean that the moment the warranty has expired the batteries are no good, just like a regular ICE car warranty doesn't mean the engine needs replacing when it's warranty expires.(Except maybe Land Rover and BMW
)
Then there's the second life market for batteries.
https://batteryhookup.com/collections/all
And looking at how many old EV batteries are sold out and destined to become powerwalls, there's more demand than supply.
I believe the 8 year lifespan that's mentioned is misleading. Most batteries have an 8 year 100,000 warranty, so it doesn't automatically mean that the moment the warranty has expired the batteries are no good, just like a regular ICE car warranty doesn't mean the engine needs replacing when it's warranty expires.(Except maybe Land Rover and BMW
)Then there's the second life market for batteries.
https://batteryhookup.com/collections/all
And looking at how many old EV batteries are sold out and destined to become powerwalls, there's more demand than supply.
I am involved with three 2011 Leafs. 55,000k - 9 bars. 85,000k - 8 bars. 155,000k, 7 bars.
Apart from battery capacity, therefore range - there is nothing wrong with them - and minimal maintenance.
As this is New Zealand, where cars really don't rust - it will be interesting to see what happens over the next ten years.
caziques said:
I am involved with three 2011 Leafs. 55,000k - 9 bars. 85,000k - 8 bars. 155,000k, 7 bars.
Apart from battery capacity, therefore range - there is nothing wrong with them - and minimal maintenance.
As this is New Zealand, where cars really don't rust - it will be interesting to see what happens over the next ten years.
Heat pumps will go and brake callipers will seize up. Apart from battery capacity, therefore range - there is nothing wrong with them - and minimal maintenance.
As this is New Zealand, where cars really don't rust - it will be interesting to see what happens over the next ten years.
There’s literally nothing else. Wiper motor? Diff?
Compare with egr valves, autobox failures, swirl flaps, turbos, injectors, head gaskets...
My almost 3 year old Zoe is approaching 80k miles and when I last checked a few thousand miles ago it was showing 90% battery.
I almost always charge it to 100% and regularly take it down to less than 5% before charging it so I have not made any effort to look after it.
The Nissan Leaf has been largely responsible for people believing that batteries die quickly but it doesn’t seem to be a major problem for most EVs.
I almost always charge it to 100% and regularly take it down to less than 5% before charging it so I have not made any effort to look after it.
The Nissan Leaf has been largely responsible for people believing that batteries die quickly but it doesn’t seem to be a major problem for most EVs.
caziques said:
I am involved with three 2011 Leafs. 55,000k - 9 bars. 85,000k - 8 bars. 155,000k, 7 bars.
Apart from battery capacity, therefore range - there is nothing wrong with them - and minimal maintenance.
As this is New Zealand, where cars really don't rust - it will be interesting to see what happens over the next ten years.
Mine is ~5 years old. 40k miles. 11 bars. Range is bloody awful in the cold, but that’s expected. Apart from battery capacity, therefore range - there is nothing wrong with them - and minimal maintenance.
As this is New Zealand, where cars really don't rust - it will be interesting to see what happens over the next ten years.
I’ve just put new discs and pads on the front because they were corroding, partially through lack of use.
Max_Torque said:
Lets be quite clear here:
EVERY TIME YOU DRIVE YOUR CAR IT WEARS OUT.
You'll notice i said just "car" ie ANY car, ICE, BEV, FCEV or powered by fairy dust.
That bit was right but then you unfortunately followed up with:-EVERY TIME YOU DRIVE YOUR CAR IT WEARS OUT.
You'll notice i said just "car" ie ANY car, ICE, BEV, FCEV or powered by fairy dust.
Max_Torque said:
Lets be quite clear here:
This is why second hand ICE with say 150,000 miles on the clock are, effectively worthless, because even if they are nominally working perfectly, they are actually worn out, and close to the end of their design lives. You could have a car that drove absolutely perfetly, but at 150,000 miles it would still be worth nothing simply because it might fail.
Which is simply nonsense. It's not 1972 any more fella'.This is why second hand ICE with say 150,000 miles on the clock are, effectively worthless, because even if they are nominally working perfectly, they are actually worn out, and close to the end of their design lives. You could have a car that drove absolutely perfetly, but at 150,000 miles it would still be worth nothing simply because it might fail.
I hired an exec taxi service recently and the driver turned up in a 2017 S-class. I always take an interest when it's something nice and it was a 3hr trip so was bound to end up chatting with the driver about the car. I thought it was new but he told me it had over 190k on the odo'. I thought it was new. I suspect if I'd told him to leave it at my house at the end of the day he would probably decline.
It doesn't need to be something as expensive as that either. Have a look at pickups on ebay (Navaras, Hiluxes etc). At 150k and 10 years old they are still worth a decent amount. They will also perform pretty much the same as they did when they were new and cover pretty much the same distance on a tank of fuel.
Richard-D said:
Max_Torque said:
Lets be quite clear here:
EVERY TIME YOU DRIVE YOUR CAR IT WEARS OUT.
You'll notice i said just "car" ie ANY car, ICE, BEV, FCEV or powered by fairy dust.
That bit was right but then you unfortunately followed up with:-EVERY TIME YOU DRIVE YOUR CAR IT WEARS OUT.
You'll notice i said just "car" ie ANY car, ICE, BEV, FCEV or powered by fairy dust.
Max_Torque said:
Lets be quite clear here:
This is why second hand ICE with say 150,000 miles on the clock are, effectively worthless, because even if they are nominally working perfectly, they are actually worn out, and close to the end of their design lives. You could have a car that drove absolutely perfetly, but at 150,000 miles it would still be worth nothing simply because it might fail.
Which is simply nonsense. It's not 1972 any more fella'.This is why second hand ICE with say 150,000 miles on the clock are, effectively worthless, because even if they are nominally working perfectly, they are actually worn out, and close to the end of their design lives. You could have a car that drove absolutely perfetly, but at 150,000 miles it would still be worth nothing simply because it might fail.
I hired an exec taxi service recently and the driver turned up in a 2017 S-class. I always take an interest when it's something nice and it was a 3hr trip so was bound to end up chatting with the driver about the car. I thought it was new but he told me it had over 190k on the odo'. I thought it was new. I suspect if I'd told him to leave it at my house at the end of the day he would probably decline.
It doesn't need to be something as expensive as that either. Have a look at pickups on ebay (Navaras, Hiluxes etc). At 150k and 10 years old they are still worth a decent amount. They will also perform pretty much the same as they did when they were new and cover pretty much the same distance on a tank of fuel.
Richard-D said:
Which is simply nonsense. It's not 1972 any more fella'.
I hired an exec taxi service recently and the driver turned up in a 2017 S-class. I always take an interest when it's something nice and it was a 3hr trip so was bound to end up chatting with the driver about the car. I thought it was new but he told me it had over 190k on the odo'. I thought it was new. I suspect if I'd told him to leave it at my house at the end of the day he would probably decline.
It doesn't need to be something as expensive as that either. Have a look at pickups on ebay (Navaras, Hiluxes etc). At 150k and 10 years old they are still worth a decent amount. They will also perform pretty much the same as they did when they were new and cover pretty much the same distance on a tank of fuel.
I'm afraid your anecdotal evidence does not trump actual industry data.I hired an exec taxi service recently and the driver turned up in a 2017 S-class. I always take an interest when it's something nice and it was a 3hr trip so was bound to end up chatting with the driver about the car. I thought it was new but he told me it had over 190k on the odo'. I thought it was new. I suspect if I'd told him to leave it at my house at the end of the day he would probably decline.
It doesn't need to be something as expensive as that either. Have a look at pickups on ebay (Navaras, Hiluxes etc). At 150k and 10 years old they are still worth a decent amount. They will also perform pretty much the same as they did when they were new and cover pretty much the same distance on a tank of fuel.
RumbleOfThunder said:
I'm afraid your anecdotal evidence does not trump actual industry data.
There are hundreds of cars on ebay and autotrader at that mileage and age that are not being 'given away'. I have pointed this out and you think this is anecdotal? I don't think you know what anecdotal means.ATG said:
Yes, but what are they _worth_? He didn't say they'd actually fall apart at 150k, he said they'd be worth nothing. And he's right. We bought a 150000 km hilux over 10 years ago for £3.5k (which is bugger all) and it's now done 300k and is worth absolutely bugger all. QED
This is worth quoting if only to prove that a 10 year old 150k mile ICE vehicle is often a good purchase. I'm not sure the same will be true of a 150k mile Leaf. It will certainly see a much bigger drop in function than the Hilux.Richard-D said:
ATG said:
Yes, but what are they _worth_? He didn't say they'd actually fall apart at 150k, he said they'd be worth nothing. And he's right. We bought a 150000 km hilux over 10 years ago for £3.5k (which is bugger all) and it's now done 300k and is worth absolutely bugger all. QED
This is worth quoting if only to prove that a 10 year old 150k mile ICE vehicle is often a good purchase. I'm not sure the same will be true of a 150k mile Leaf. It will certainly see a much bigger drop in function than the Hilux.an electric car will outlast any IC car, the very construction of it will see to that. mind you would you get to 150k in an IC engined car and replace the engine if it borked ? A BEV has the capacity to go on and on, lots of research is being done and life history on BEV's revealing that they have a long life, and can do stella miles... check out the 500k mile vehicles on Google with minimal degradation...
EV's will become like white goods soon enough though and the golden age of driving will be but a mere memory...
ruggedscotty said:
not everything is built like a hilux.....
an electric car will outlast any IC car, the very construction of it will see to that. mind you would you get to 150k in an IC engined car and replace the engine if it borked ? A BEV has the capacity to go on and on, lots of research is being done and life history on BEV's revealing that they have a long life, and can do stella miles... check out the 500k mile vehicles on Google with minimal degradation...
EV's will become like white goods soon enough though and the golden age of driving will be but a mere memory...
Lots of cars are built much worse than a hilux and junk at that age, agree entirely. Lots of cars are built the same or better though, the hilux is not unique in being a potentially good buy at that age/mileage. Silly statements that ICE vehicles are worthless at that age (I'm not suggesting you made that statement) are demonstrably false. Some are yes, but certainly not all. Therefore ICE is not the defining factor.an electric car will outlast any IC car, the very construction of it will see to that. mind you would you get to 150k in an IC engined car and replace the engine if it borked ? A BEV has the capacity to go on and on, lots of research is being done and life history on BEV's revealing that they have a long life, and can do stella miles... check out the 500k mile vehicles on Google with minimal degradation...
EV's will become like white goods soon enough though and the golden age of driving will be but a mere memory...
I potentially would change a failed engine in a 150k mile car. I do accept that I am probably in the minority there though, in the UK. Other nations don't all seem to have this fear of dashboard numbers that is so prevalent here.
Your statement "an electric car will outlast any IC car" is a little strange given the sensible post. I can only assume that you don't mean that quite the way it sounds.
Richard-D said:
ruggedscotty said:
not everything is built like a hilux.....
an electric car will outlast any IC car, the very construction of it will see to that. mind you would you get to 150k in an IC engined car and replace the engine if it borked ? A BEV has the capacity to go on and on, lots of research is being done and life history on BEV's revealing that they have a long life, and can do stella miles... check out the 500k mile vehicles on Google with minimal degradation...
EV's will become like white goods soon enough though and the golden age of driving will be but a mere memory...
Lots of cars are built much worse than a hilux and junk at that age, agree entirely. Lots of cars are built the same or better though, the hilux is not unique in being a potentially good buy at that age/mileage. Silly statements that ICE vehicles are worthless at that age (I'm not suggesting you made that statement) are demonstrably false. Some are yes, but certainly not all. Therefore ICE is not the defining factor.an electric car will outlast any IC car, the very construction of it will see to that. mind you would you get to 150k in an IC engined car and replace the engine if it borked ? A BEV has the capacity to go on and on, lots of research is being done and life history on BEV's revealing that they have a long life, and can do stella miles... check out the 500k mile vehicles on Google with minimal degradation...
EV's will become like white goods soon enough though and the golden age of driving will be but a mere memory...
I potentially would change a failed engine in a 150k mile car. I do accept that I am probably in the minority there though, in the UK. Other nations don't all seem to have this fear of dashboard numbers that is so prevalent here.
Your statement "an electric car will outlast any IC car" is a little strange given the sensible post. I can only assume that you don't mean that quite the way it sounds.
I do think that electric is going to work out over all a better choice though.
I'm just waiting for an EV I actually want to buy.
Colleague at work (who is actually on a lower pay point ironically) has just got a Taycan turbo and its really nice but far to expensive (though his lease deal of £800 a month including insurance was very good). Leafs & golf E's are boring.
Can't be long before the EV GTi or EV ST can it ?
Or even a GT86E
Colleague at work (who is actually on a lower pay point ironically) has just got a Taycan turbo and its really nice but far to expensive (though his lease deal of £800 a month including insurance was very good). Leafs & golf E's are boring.
Can't be long before the EV GTi or EV ST can it ?
Or even a GT86E
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