Returning to the Old Normal

[AudiMan9000]

There are a number of threads relating to coronavirus, but I thought it might be helpful to start a new one dedicated to our return to normality.

Normality = Life pre-Covid, or reasonably close to that.

When do you think we will be able to return to normality? When will the lockdown/restrictions end? How do you see this pandemic ending? Medically? Socially? Politically? Legally?

My thoughts - The crisis is far from over, but 2021 will be the last year to see significant restrictions. I expect by 2022 we will see low numbers and effectively be ‘living with’ the virus.

[tangerine_sedge]

AudiMan9000 said:

My thoughts - The crisis is far from over, but 2021 will be the last year to see significant restrictions. I expect by 2022 we will see low numbers and effectively be ‘living with’ the virus.

I agree, by 2022 we'll hardly have any new Corona threads...

[vixen1700]

Personally I want it back to proper nornal as soon as possible, but it just isn't going to happen. Not because of restrictions, but the damage caused to people.

I dread to imagine how many people up and down the country have hardly left their homes since March, getting all those back to some normality will be a task in itself.

Full football stadiums? Festivals? Theatres? Convenient foreign travel? Not sure about any of those any time soon.

Pubs opening again will be the first thing, but probably with restrictions again.

So yeah, not looking great any time soon.

[crofty1984]

Optimistically I'm thinking the same as you, OP.
Though I wonder the long - term effects, not "long covid" but, say, will it become considered rude to not wear a mask in a shop or on public transport, even when not legally required?
Will the job market snap back to normal, or is WFH going to be a much bigger thing?
Exactly how fked is the high street?

[Ntv]

People are skint - that will suck the life out of some of the old normal

Some remain fearful (so much turns on vaccine efficacy obviously, and new strains )

Many more unemployed - likewise, not great

More family breakdown - more crime

Population less health, mentally and physically

NHS bleating going into overdrive as ever. Perhaps sentiment will finally change and people will see what a rod for their own backs they have created in their beloved, politically weaponised, envy of the world, NHS

[MyNewLeng]

Isle of Man going back to normal with no masks or antisocial distancing gives me a glimmer of hope.

Boris has one last chance to rescue my Tory vote by pretty much going back to as close to normal as possible by summer. I can live without mass gatherings like festivals for one more year but if I'm still having to wear a mask and follow a one way system in a pub/restaurant he's blown it.

[JohnnyJones]

MyNewLeng said:

Isle of Man going back to normal with no masks or antisocial distancing gives me a glimmer of hope.

Boris has one last chance to rescue my Tory vote by pretty much going back to as close to normal as possible by summer. I can live without mass gatherings like festivals for one more year but if I'm still having to wear a mask and follow a one way system in a pub/restaurant he's blown it.

Yeah this sums it up for me. If I can go for a pint after work by June without having to pretend to eat a scotch egg he's got half a chance.

[vixen1700]

crofty1984 said:

Will the job market snap back to normal, or is WFH going to be a much bigger thing?

After ten months of this, I do wonder if the office will actually survive in a way we knew before.

Been into the City a few times since March and it's just a bizarre ghost town, people aren't going to return overnight and companies will probably rethink their whole ideas about renting offices.

[DanL]

We (large multinational IT firm) are anticipating being back in the office in September. Was going to be this summer, but it’s been pushed three months or so.

For many the old normal won’t return, I think. Certainly when we go back we’re expecting 2+ days in the office and 2+ days at home, now that WFH is normalised.

Assuming we’re typical of a London office / commuter workforce operation (and we may not be), it’ll be interesting to see whether the supporting businesses around the office blocks that sell lunches, etc. are still viable.

I am looking forward to Friday nights in the pub.

[Lim]

The reason Glastonbury was cancelled IMO, was not because we won't be able to stand together. But the acts won't be able to get here.

I was pessimistic personally, until the hotel quarantine stuff started to leak. Now I am more confident that we will trade off international mobility for relatively normal national mobility.

So I think life will be relatively normal domestically from about May. But many countries won't be vaccinated until 2023, so I've shelved any hopes of international travel in 2021.

Edited by Lim on Tuesday 2nd February 12:52

[Prizam]

The Old normal will never return.

Enter... the crystal ball.

- Infections will drop off, end of March / April and things will start to re-open. Much like before.
- The summer will see people flock to the outside world.
- New variants will emerge and spread within the population. But because its summer it won't be a massive issue.
- Around October / November time, cases will start to surge again.
- December, it will become apparent that the virus has mutated outside of the vaccine.
- End of the year 2021 will see more lockdowns.

Rinse and repeat.

The reason - Its a coronavirus. they mutate. This one is a lot worse than our old friend the flu. But, the best we can hope for at the moment is it is controlled like the flu. And, just like the flu... the longer it goes on, the more variations we will have. Currently the flu vaccine averages between 50 and 60% immunity.

Solution 1 - Masivley expand the capacity of the NHS. But even then we will still have some restrictions.
Solution 2 - Develop a generic coronavirus vaccine

[Biggy Stardust]

crofty1984 said:

Though I wonder the long - term effects, not "long covid" but, say, will it become considered rude to not wear a mask in a shop or on public transport, even when not legally required?

Let them get on with wearing one if they feel the need. It's always been common in Asia.

crofty1984 said:

Will the job market snap back to normal, or is WFH going to be a much bigger thing?

WFH was always going to grow & C19 has accelerated this but I envisage 1/2/3 days per week in the office where people need to work together.

crofty1984 said:

Exactly how fked is the high street?

Online shopping was always going to grow until it finds equilibrium with physical shops. I detest going out shopping, the GF lives for it. A balance will be found.

[AC43]

vixen1700 said:

Personally I want it back to proper nornal as soon as possible, but it just isn't going to happen. Not because of restrictions, but the damage caused to people.

Full football stadiums? Festivals? Theatres? Convenient foreign travel? Not sure about any of those any time soon.

As soon as things are back to normal I'm (a) going to the pub (b) eating out (c) going to the football (it will be AMAZING) (d) going to a gig and (e) driving to France.

It hasn't damaged me. It's made me bored.

[bloomen]

Even when the normalcies of society return I'm wondering whether if so many people have changed through the course of this things will pivot for good.

Of course many will eagerly pick up right where they left off. The amount of people who don't may affect many things.

[DanL]

Here’s a test for the “new normal” - we’re told to wash our hands for 20 seconds when coming home. When this first started and I was doing it religiously, it felt a little odd when I just “casually” washed my hands at other points during the day.

I do wonder if some of the stuff we’ll return to doing will feel odd at the start.

[mat205125]

Biggy Stardust said:

crofty1984 said:

Though I wonder the long - term effects, not "long covid" but, say, will it become considered rude to not wear a mask in a shop or on public transport, even when not legally required?

Let them get on with wearing one if they feel the need. It's always been common in Asia.

crofty1984 said:

Will the job market snap back to normal, or is WFH going to be a much bigger thing?

WFH was always going to grow & C19 has accelerated this but I envisage 1/2/3 days per week in the office where people need to work together.

crofty1984 said:

Exactly how fked is the high street?

Online shopping was always going to grow until it finds equilibrium with physical shops. I detest going out shopping, the GF lives for it. A balance will be found.

All of this

I'd love to think that mask wearing could become a socially positive sign of courtesy and good manners, but this is the uk.

[chrispmartha]

vixen1700 said:

crofty1984 said:

Will the job market snap back to normal, or is WFH going to be a much bigger thing?

After ten months of this, I do wonder if the office will actually survive in a way we knew before.

Been into the City a few times since March and it's just a bizarre ghost town, people aren't going to return overnight and companies will probably rethink their whole ideas about renting offices.

Im hoping to take advantage of this Id like to move the office closer to a big City, there may be some good deals on Office space to be had?

[anonymoususer]

People will harbour grudges against their former friends and family members

It wouldn't surprise me if the country became split with people on opposite viewpoints being openly hostile and violent towards each other.

[Ntv]

DanL said:

Here’s a test for the “new normal” - we’re told to wash our hands for 20 seconds when coming home. When this first started and I was doing it religiously, it felt a little odd when I just “casually” washed my hands at other points during the day.

I do wonder if some of the stuff we’ll return to doing will feel odd at the start.

I don't bother. No one does in our house. Just wash as per normal.

No one is afraid of COVID

And I consider the price we have paid already grossly disproportionate to any notional days of life saved among octogenarians

[PurpleTurtle]

Prizam said:

The Old normal will never return.

Enter... the crystal ball.

- Infections will drop off, end of March / April and things will start to re-open. Much like before.
- The summer will see people flock to the outside world.
- New variants will emerge and spread within the population. But because its summer it won't be a massive issue.
- Around October / November time, cases will start to surge again.
- December, it will become apparent that the virus has mutated outside of the vaccine.
- End of the year 2021 will see more lockdowns.

Rinse and repeat.

The reason - Its a coronavirus. they mutate. This one is a lot worse than our old friend the flu. But, the best we can hope for at the moment is it is controlled like the flu. And, just like the flu... the longer it goes on, the more variations we will have. Currently the flu vaccine averages between 50 and 60% immunity.

Solution 1 - Masivley expand the capacity of the NHS. But even then we will still have some restrictions.
Solution 2 - Develop a generic coronavirus vaccine

I'm generally in agreement with this too.

I think the big thing will be the end of Furlough payments. Once we've reached sufficient levels of (this round of) vaccination then the Govt will look to end that, they can't bang the 'Protect the NHS' drum forever, as much as it has been necessary. People need and want to get back to work. I've got mates on furlough who are really worried as to what happens at the end of April.

Large events will recover in the long term but in the short term will be at reduced occupancy, either due to Government restrictions or the natural reluctance of a certain percentage of the population to return to those, for those people social distancing will become a thing forever.

Ditto working from home. My team, for a large organisation in Hampshire, has had three members permanently relocate to Lincolnshire, Oban and Leeds during this pandemic. All have agreed to come into the office for 'important meetings' a couple of days a month but otherwise are WFH permanently, employer is fine with that.

Conversely, many people will be back to the old normal from day one of restrictions being lifted. Many people never stopped living the old normal.