B of E forecast for economic recovery
Discussion
B of E making a very optimistic forecast for economic recovery.
The successful vaccination programme is likely to support a material recovery in household spending.
Apparently £125bn has been paid into savings accounts by savers over the last year.
Of course some other folk will not have been so fortunate.
I listened to an interview with a young lady on Radio 4 this afternoon when she said that she had given up her rental property and moved back in with her parents when her place of work closed and she was furloughed. The money she had saved would enable her to put down a deposit on a house and she planned to do this very soon.
Recovery of the economy to pre pandemic levels is possible by April next year. If correct, this seems to be a remarkably good result in the circumstances.
The successful vaccination programme is likely to support a material recovery in household spending.
Apparently £125bn has been paid into savings accounts by savers over the last year.
Of course some other folk will not have been so fortunate.
I listened to an interview with a young lady on Radio 4 this afternoon when she said that she had given up her rental property and moved back in with her parents when her place of work closed and she was furloughed. The money she had saved would enable her to put down a deposit on a house and she planned to do this very soon.
Recovery of the economy to pre pandemic levels is possible by April next year. If correct, this seems to be a remarkably good result in the circumstances.
maz8062 said:
Has the BoE ever got one forecast right?
No, what we should take from this is that the billions in savings should be fair game for negative interest rates and/or rising mortgage rates.
Ill draw every penny out if it went in to negative interest rates. No, what we should take from this is that the billions in savings should be fair game for negative interest rates and/or rising mortgage rates.
they probably think as soon as we are out of this ( as well as can be expected) that all that 125bn is going to be blown to help the recovery.
Not a chance alot will be sat on.
jmn said:
I listened to an interview with a young lady on Radio 4 this afternoon when she said that she had given up her rental property and moved back in with her parents when her place of work closed and she was furloughed. The money she had saved would enable her to put down a deposit on a house and she planned to do this very soon.
Using what income, or was she paid so well on furluck she can buy a place outright?I can’t see the recovery being that great
Those still in work will largely remain working from home. No need to buy that new car etc.
When you’re in the habit of saving, you think twice about buying the latest new tat.
No confidence to book holidays etc as too difficult / impossible to get a refund if it goes wrong again.
I’ve never saved so much or spent so little. That’s not going to change.
Those still in work will largely remain working from home. No need to buy that new car etc.
When you’re in the habit of saving, you think twice about buying the latest new tat.
No confidence to book holidays etc as too difficult / impossible to get a refund if it goes wrong again.
I’ve never saved so much or spent so little. That’s not going to change.
Negative interest rates are seldon applied to retail deposits. Also loan rates are capped to prevent the banks paying you. Negative rates benefit banks not indviduals. An re tax rises they are coming the government think we will all be happy to repay furlough even if you did not get it.
Averages out at approx 2.4/2.5k per adult. Better than nothing but not life changing for most. Fair chunk of whom would probably not have been able to do so in normal times.
Not a huge amount is currently closed. Holidays, entertainment etc. Cannot imagine a huge number of those suddenly able to put something aside are going to splurge on unnecessaries. Holidays might see a big uptick but again a chunk of that abroad.
Not a huge amount is currently closed. Holidays, entertainment etc. Cannot imagine a huge number of those suddenly able to put something aside are going to splurge on unnecessaries. Holidays might see a big uptick but again a chunk of that abroad.
t after brexit?How was the economy doing pre-pandemic ?
Clue; not very well.
GDP quarter 4, 2019 was flat. GDP growth had slowed to a snail's pace in 2019, continuing the trend. We were on the brink of recession anyway.
If anyone thinks the end of the pandemic will be a return to the good times economically, then those good times were actually not very good.
Clue; not very well.
GDP quarter 4, 2019 was flat. GDP growth had slowed to a snail's pace in 2019, continuing the trend. We were on the brink of recession anyway.
If anyone thinks the end of the pandemic will be a return to the good times economically, then those good times were actually not very good.
A lot of negativity on here so far.
To balance it, I’m pretty confident about the future for UK plc. Anecdotally, I can see a lot of pent up demand.
I think the end of lockdown will bring an expansion of spending in a considerable way. Rishi just has to time the end of furlough in the correct manner and we’ll be golden.
To balance it, I’m pretty confident about the future for UK plc. Anecdotally, I can see a lot of pent up demand.
I think the end of lockdown will bring an expansion of spending in a considerable way. Rishi just has to time the end of furlough in the correct manner and we’ll be golden.
I was pretty pessimistic in 2020. But I was wrong I think.
They added 20% to the money supply, and no inflation.
Furlough scheme worked better than expected.
Turns out people just buy different crap.
Those that are hardest hit by the pandemic were relatively low tax payers.
Loads of people have involuntary savings to spend.
Room left in the tank for more stimulus if required.
They added 20% to the money supply, and no inflation.
Furlough scheme worked better than expected.
Turns out people just buy different crap.
Those that are hardest hit by the pandemic were relatively low tax payers.
Loads of people have involuntary savings to spend.
Room left in the tank for more stimulus if required.
jmn said:
Well if you are paying rent at, say, £600 a month thats £7200 in a year plus the returned deposit. That is enough for a deposit on a small property in many parts of the Country. It is sometimes possible to agree less than 10% for a deposit.
Christ, where? It’s 20% minimum at around 700k for a small 2 bedder in Zone 2. Gassing Station | News, Politics & Economics | Top of Page | What's New | My Stuff