New Vantage depreciation after 2019 giveaways
Discussion
Thought you chaps may be interested in this.
I have a new Vantage, registered mid Jan 2020. I bought just after the £1000 deposit + £1000 pcm giveaways, didn't get that deal but got close as AML were still offering big subsidies and inflated GFV on finance deals.
List price of car in Jan 20, which is almost fully loaded - £144k
Price paid (according to finance docs) - £122k
Guaranteed future value / final payment in Jan 22 - £92k
Actual value in January 2021 (now).... £86,000 which is backed up by plenty of year old models on approved used at the £90k mark.
God knows what the real value will be in another 12 month - £75k-80k?
They are taking a huge haircut on this one - and as much as I like the car, it will make no financial sense for myself nor anyone else to keep them beyond the deal, so expect another big dip end of this year.
Anyone looking for a two year old fully loaded Vantage with a few thousand miles on it (mine has 2,000 after a year) will find a choice of absolute bargains at BCA auctions come the end of the year!
I really feel for any poor fool that has paid for one of these in the last couple of years without finance / GFV.
911 C4S on order for end of year to replace it... at least it doesn't have 10 year old tech which is my major gripe about the Aston(s).
I have a new Vantage, registered mid Jan 2020. I bought just after the £1000 deposit + £1000 pcm giveaways, didn't get that deal but got close as AML were still offering big subsidies and inflated GFV on finance deals.
List price of car in Jan 20, which is almost fully loaded - £144k
Price paid (according to finance docs) - £122k
Guaranteed future value / final payment in Jan 22 - £92k
Actual value in January 2021 (now).... £86,000 which is backed up by plenty of year old models on approved used at the £90k mark.
God knows what the real value will be in another 12 month - £75k-80k?
They are taking a huge haircut on this one - and as much as I like the car, it will make no financial sense for myself nor anyone else to keep them beyond the deal, so expect another big dip end of this year.
Anyone looking for a two year old fully loaded Vantage with a few thousand miles on it (mine has 2,000 after a year) will find a choice of absolute bargains at BCA auctions come the end of the year!
I really feel for any poor fool that has paid for one of these in the last couple of years without finance / GFV.
911 C4S on order for end of year to replace it... at least it doesn't have 10 year old tech which is my major gripe about the Aston(s).
We have never been able to discover, who suffers the loss when this batch of cars are eventually disposed of (presumably at auction).
Aston Martin wrote off £35 million in their accounts for this 'promotion'.
As that has been accounted for already, presumably something has been agreed, so might that mean the PCP providers are left to carry the remaining risk?
wnd said:
Thought you chaps may be interested in this.
List price of car in Jan 20, which is almost fully loaded - £144k
Price paid (according to finance docs) - £122k
Guaranteed future value / final payment in Jan 22 - £92k
Actual value in January 2021 (now).... £86,000 which is backed up by plenty of year old models on approved used at the £90k mark.
That's a pretty big hit whichever way you look at it. However, I doubt a dealer will give someone £86k for a car that they will sell for £90k - unless they work on tiny margins.List price of car in Jan 20, which is almost fully loaded - £144k
Price paid (according to finance docs) - £122k
Guaranteed future value / final payment in Jan 22 - £92k
Actual value in January 2021 (now).... £86,000 which is backed up by plenty of year old models on approved used at the £90k mark.
Currently we don´t see that impact in Germany, at least not to that extent.
(And the used car market of Germany is somewhat linked at least with Belgium, Netherlands and Italy)
A used Vantage is advertised between €120k and €140k. That would be £105k - £122k; or USD145k - USD170k. All taxes included.
New AMR manual cars are still advertised at €190k.
The impression is: there are almost no new cars (Vantage) delivered to Germany? With the intention to keep the prices up?
General market mechanisms still working, that is any new car purchased from the dealer incurs a loss of 20% from list as soon as you drive of the premises and than another 10% each year. So after three years of average use you can expect a loss of 20% plus 3 x 10% = 50% from list prices. But given that we buy with a certain discount, the annual loss is not terrifying.
Exception is Porsche - the only sports car with lower losses and surprising price developments.
(And the used car market of Germany is somewhat linked at least with Belgium, Netherlands and Italy)
A used Vantage is advertised between €120k and €140k. That would be £105k - £122k; or USD145k - USD170k. All taxes included.
New AMR manual cars are still advertised at €190k.
The impression is: there are almost no new cars (Vantage) delivered to Germany? With the intention to keep the prices up?
General market mechanisms still working, that is any new car purchased from the dealer incurs a loss of 20% from list as soon as you drive of the premises and than another 10% each year. So after three years of average use you can expect a loss of 20% plus 3 x 10% = 50% from list prices. But given that we buy with a certain discount, the annual loss is not terrifying.
Exception is Porsche - the only sports car with lower losses and surprising price developments.
Not sure on top end cars but apparently 40% of the original price is typically what cars are worth after 3 years .
Extras specified at point of order don't tend to add much to resale price .
2 year olds BMW M5's with a list of £110k now sell for £55k .
Expensive , whatever way you look at it thou.
Extras specified at point of order don't tend to add much to resale price .
2 year olds BMW M5's with a list of £110k now sell for £55k .
Expensive , whatever way you look at it thou.
Nbgring said:
Currently we don´t see that impact in Germany, at least not to that extent.
(And the used car market of Germany is somewhat linked at least with Belgium, Netherlands and Italy)
A used Vantage is advertised between €120k and €140k. That would be £105k - £122k; or USD145k - USD170k. All taxes included.
New AMR manual cars are still advertised at €190k.
The impression is: there are almost no new cars (Vantage) delivered to Germany? With the intention to keep the prices up?
General market mechanisms still working, that is any new car purchased from the dealer incurs a loss of 20% from list as soon as you drive of the premises and than another 10% each year. So after three years of average use you can expect a loss of 20% plus 3 x 10% = 50% from list prices. But given that we buy with a certain discount, the annual loss is not terrifying.
Exception is Porsche - the only sports car with lower losses and surprising price developments.
It’s about 42% not 50% based on 20% immediate loss and the. 10% a year. (And the used car market of Germany is somewhat linked at least with Belgium, Netherlands and Italy)
A used Vantage is advertised between €120k and €140k. That would be £105k - £122k; or USD145k - USD170k. All taxes included.
New AMR manual cars are still advertised at €190k.
The impression is: there are almost no new cars (Vantage) delivered to Germany? With the intention to keep the prices up?
General market mechanisms still working, that is any new car purchased from the dealer incurs a loss of 20% from list as soon as you drive of the premises and than another 10% each year. So after three years of average use you can expect a loss of 20% plus 3 x 10% = 50% from list prices. But given that we buy with a certain discount, the annual loss is not terrifying.
Exception is Porsche - the only sports car with lower losses and surprising price developments.
wnd said:
List price of car in Jan 20, which is almost fully loaded - £144k
Price paid (according to finance docs) - £122k
Guaranteed future value / final payment in Jan 22 - £92k
Actual value in January 2021 (now).... £86,000 which is backed up by plenty of year old models on approved used at the £90k mark.
God knows what the real value will be in another 12 month - £75k-80k?
And a dealership will give you less than that, making the depreciation 50% over 2 years! Crazy! As you say anyone who didn't buy on this deal is taking a massive hit and I am sure thanking Aston for it with loyalty when they next make a purchase. The Porsche sounds nice and you can drive around throwing fifties out of the window safe in the knowledge your still financially better off than buying an Aston Price paid (according to finance docs) - £122k
Guaranteed future value / final payment in Jan 22 - £92k
Actual value in January 2021 (now).... £86,000 which is backed up by plenty of year old models on approved used at the £90k mark.
God knows what the real value will be in another 12 month - £75k-80k?
Jon39 said:
We have never been able to discover, who suffers the loss when this batch of cars are eventually disposed of (presumably at auction).
Aston Martin wrote off £35 million in their accounts for this 'promotion'.
As that has been accounted for already, presumably something has been agreed, so might that mean the PCP providers are left to carry the remaining risk?
My 2012 Roadster was £116k ish and 1st owner had it on 3 yr PCP, which kindly paid a big chunk of the depreciation.
I bought it from a main dealer, it had been in there for a few months, 3.5 years old £61k
I dont know what it traded in at, low 50's probably so it probably lost £60k in 3 years.
Thankfully depreciation has slowed somewhat now
I bought it from a main dealer, it had been in there for a few months, 3.5 years old £61k
I dont know what it traded in at, low 50's probably so it probably lost £60k in 3 years.
Thankfully depreciation has slowed somewhat now
soofsayer said:
Jon39 said:
We have never been able to discover, who suffers the loss when this batch of cars are eventually disposed of (presumably at auction).
Aston Martin wrote off £35 million in their accounts for this 'promotion'.
As that has been accounted for already, presumably something has been agreed, so might that mean the PCP providers are left to carry the remaining risk?
Thank you soothsayer.
Therefore it will be AML who might have to incur a further loss on this batch of cars, not the finance providers (FP). The FPs, who would currently be owners of these vehicles, presumably have an agreement to sell to AML at the GFV price.
The cars had already been sold to the UK dealers before they became 'stuck stock'. As our OP explains, the cost options were ignored in the PCP deals, so I guess the £35 million already written down by AML, might represent payments made by AML to dealers, for the cost options originally specified and paid for on those stock cars.
Appears that it might have been a very costly exercise for AML, building cars that had never been ordered by custoners, but which enabled AP to artificailly boost the wholesale figures during 2019.
Edited by Jon39 on Thursday 11th February 18:39
I managed to get the December 2019 deal and car has been fantastic (bar one or 2 issues). It is my first Aston.
I will struggle to justify taking full ownership of the car in December, as mentioned earlier, the GFV is likely to be way higher than the cars value (retail as well as trade). Cant see the maths working. Also mine arrived at 20th December, so will be 100 plus cars behind the early December cars that have already been sent back 'flooding' the market.
Fortunelatly the finance agreement is a regulated one, so unlike some of the McLaren deals, I think I am under no obligation to take the car. Wonder if finance co will take a lower £ than the GFV?
Lockdown has helped future owner as miles likely to be much lower than expected (i should have done 9000 by now and only done 5k).
Tempted to buy one in the used market when it goes, but there are a few things that have niggled. Would like to compare it with a late AMV12S, which has the traditional looks, but wife loves the big grill etc. and the AMG v8 is fabulous.
But there are few things more that put smile on face when starting it, driving and using it.
I will struggle to justify taking full ownership of the car in December, as mentioned earlier, the GFV is likely to be way higher than the cars value (retail as well as trade). Cant see the maths working. Also mine arrived at 20th December, so will be 100 plus cars behind the early December cars that have already been sent back 'flooding' the market.
Fortunelatly the finance agreement is a regulated one, so unlike some of the McLaren deals, I think I am under no obligation to take the car. Wonder if finance co will take a lower £ than the GFV?
Lockdown has helped future owner as miles likely to be much lower than expected (i should have done 9000 by now and only done 5k).
Tempted to buy one in the used market when it goes, but there are a few things that have niggled. Would like to compare it with a late AMV12S, which has the traditional looks, but wife loves the big grill etc. and the AMG v8 is fabulous.
But there are few things more that put smile on face when starting it, driving and using it.
Robert-q32ja said:
I managed to get the December 2019 deal and car has been fantastic (bar one or 2 issues). It is my first Aston.
I will struggle to justify taking full ownership of the car in December, as mentioned earlier, the GFV is likely to be way higher than the cars value (retail as well as trade). Cant see the maths working. Also mine arrived at 20th December, so will be 100 plus cars behind the early December cars that have already been sent back 'flooding' the market.
Fortunelatly the finance agreement is a regulated one, so unlike some of the McLaren deals, I think I am under no obligation to take the car. Wonder if finance co will take a lower £ than the GFV?
Lockdown has helped future owner as miles likely to be much lower than expected (i should have done 9000 by now and only done 5k).
Tempted to buy one in the used market when it goes, but there are a few things that have niggled. Would like to compare it with a late AMV12S, which has the traditional looks, but wife loves the big grill etc. and the AMG v8 is fabulous.
But there are few things more that put smile on face when starting it, driving and using it.
Interesting perspective thank you - especially the wife loves the big grilleI will struggle to justify taking full ownership of the car in December, as mentioned earlier, the GFV is likely to be way higher than the cars value (retail as well as trade). Cant see the maths working. Also mine arrived at 20th December, so will be 100 plus cars behind the early December cars that have already been sent back 'flooding' the market.
Fortunelatly the finance agreement is a regulated one, so unlike some of the McLaren deals, I think I am under no obligation to take the car. Wonder if finance co will take a lower £ than the GFV?
Lockdown has helped future owner as miles likely to be much lower than expected (i should have done 9000 by now and only done 5k).
Tempted to buy one in the used market when it goes, but there are a few things that have niggled. Would like to compare it with a late AMV12S, which has the traditional looks, but wife loves the big grill etc. and the AMG v8 is fabulous.
But there are few things more that put smile on face when starting it, driving and using it.
Someone asked how many cars were involved in the special deal, although I can no longer see that post.
I don't know exactly, but these figures give a rough idea.
There are often a reduced number of sales during 4th quarters, but Vantage sales in Q4 2019 were considerably up on the trend for that year.
Second Year of Vantage Production - Sales Comparison (UK only)
2006
Q1 = 434 .... Q2 = 336 .... Q3 = 405 .... Q4 = 261
2019
Q1 = 181 .... Q2 = 103 .... Q3 = 151 .... Q4 = 277
My guess therefore would be about 150 Special Deal cars.
Robert-q32ja said:
Wonder if finance co will take a lower £ than the GFV?
See soothsayers post. The cars are most likely to go to AML, if so the finance provider will get the payment expected and therefore have no need to haggle with PCP customers. Jon39 said:
Someone asked how many cars were involved in the special deal, although I can no longer see that post.
I don't know exactly, but these figures give a rough idea.
There are often a reduced number of sales during 4th quarters, but Vantage sales in Q4 2019 were considerably up on the trend for that year.
Second Year of Vantage Production - Sales Comparison (UK only)
2006
Q1 = 434 .... Q2 = 336 .... Q3 = 405 .... Q4 = 261
2019
Q1 = 181 .... Q2 = 103 .... Q3 = 151 .... Q4 = 277
My guess therefore would be about 150 Special Deal cars.
Robert-q32ja said:
Wonder if finance co will take a lower £ than the GFV?
See soothsayers post. The cars are most likely to go to AML, if so the finance provider will get the payment expected and therefore have no need to haggle with PCP customers. Best Regards
Minglar
Edited by Minglar on Friday 12th February 14:42
I'm going to be really interested in this as I've wondered whether there will be any way to buy mine at the end of the 2 year PCP.
My GFV is something like £97k, I reckon the car will be more like £85k max by then. So it wouldn't be worth paying the balloon vs just buying a 'Timeless' one off the forecourt at the same age and mileage for more like the £85k.
The sticking point for me is the uncertainty of what the 'deal' cars being released back into the market do. There's plenty of used cars currently available, yet all the 'deal' cars are going to be with their owners until at least November 2021, so haven't hit the market yet. What I really really don't want to happen, is to buy a 'timeless' car (or mine back if poss) in December, only to find that by Jan/Feb all the 'deal' cars have hit the market and prices have dropped by another £5k or so.
As ever, crystal ball would be useful!
My GFV is something like £97k, I reckon the car will be more like £85k max by then. So it wouldn't be worth paying the balloon vs just buying a 'Timeless' one off the forecourt at the same age and mileage for more like the £85k.
The sticking point for me is the uncertainty of what the 'deal' cars being released back into the market do. There's plenty of used cars currently available, yet all the 'deal' cars are going to be with their owners until at least November 2021, so haven't hit the market yet. What I really really don't want to happen, is to buy a 'timeless' car (or mine back if poss) in December, only to find that by Jan/Feb all the 'deal' cars have hit the market and prices have dropped by another £5k or so.
As ever, crystal ball would be useful!
Shrimpvende said:
I'm going to be really interested in this as I've wondered whether there will be any way to buy mine at the end of the 2 year PCP.
My GFV is something like £97k, I reckon the car will be more like £85k max by then. So it wouldn't be worth paying the balloon vs just buying a 'Timeless' one off the forecourt at the same age and mileage for more like the £85k.
The sticking point for me is the uncertainty of what the 'deal' cars being released back into the market do. There's plenty of used cars currently available, yet all the 'deal' cars are going to be with their owners until at least November 2021, so haven't hit the market yet. What I really really don't want to happen, is to buy a 'timeless' car (or mine back if poss) in December, only to find that by Jan/Feb all the 'deal' cars have hit the market and prices have dropped by another £5k or so.
As ever, crystal ball would be useful!
I can't comment about the AM process, but years ago I had an SL Merc that I wanted to keep, but it was worth less than the balloon. Mercedes finance wouldn't even entertain the notion of reaching an agreement, even though they openly admitted that they would get even less when a dealer bid on it.My GFV is something like £97k, I reckon the car will be more like £85k max by then. So it wouldn't be worth paying the balloon vs just buying a 'Timeless' one off the forecourt at the same age and mileage for more like the £85k.
The sticking point for me is the uncertainty of what the 'deal' cars being released back into the market do. There's plenty of used cars currently available, yet all the 'deal' cars are going to be with their owners until at least November 2021, so haven't hit the market yet. What I really really don't want to happen, is to buy a 'timeless' car (or mine back if poss) in December, only to find that by Jan/Feb all the 'deal' cars have hit the market and prices have dropped by another £5k or so.
As ever, crystal ball would be useful!
It was either pay the balloon or go to auction (if I could find out where and when it was)....I didn't do either.
You certainly cannot blame MBF for telling me effectively p
s off, because where does it stop. I signed a deal with £x as the balloon, I can't expect to start negotiating at the end of the deal, otherwise where does it end, every man and his dog will be at it.If I were in the market for a used Vantage at the end of this year, I think I'd either try and reach out to the finance company directly and see what they said, and failing that, start attending every BCA auction I could around the time and buy one that way. Remember it would still have a years AML warranty to run, so I can't see any downside to buying one at auction.
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