Oil ETF's, opinions?

[jshell]

Looking for somewhere safeish to put some cash, low 5 figs. As we emerge from lockdown we're likely to see the sky full of planes, people taking to their cars and industry that uses oil products as feedstock start to emerge/build. Added to that is Biden trying to strangle US oil output whilst the world's appetite continues unabated... Renewables burn oil/gas fired energy in China to build the tech. Anything not wood, glass, metal or stone comes from oil.

-ve is the emergence from winter so home heating is reducing the gas and gas-fired power station burn.

Would an oil ETF be a decent, long-term, safeish bet?

[Jawls]

If you’re after safety, exposing yourself to one highly cyclical sector doesn’t strike me as a good idea ...

[jshell]

Jawls said:

If you’re after safety, exposing yourself to one highly cyclical sector doesn’t strike me as a good idea ...

That's the crux though, all signals point to an up cycle...

[LeoSayer]

The price of oil is volatile - the very opposite of 'safe'.

All indicators might be pointing upwards but it's generally unexpected events that cause the price to drop.

[Jawls]

jshell said:

Jawls said:

If you’re after safety, exposing yourself to one highly cyclical sector doesn’t strike me as a good idea ...

That's the crux though, all signals point to an up cycle...

Sure, but those signals are publicly available and so are baked into the prices (assuming markets are efficient)

As a general philosophy I’m not into going overweight in particular sectors unless you have serious professional expertise in the sectors.

[jshell]

Jawls said:

jshell said:

Jawls said:

If you’re after safety, exposing yourself to one highly cyclical sector doesn’t strike me as a good idea ...

That's the crux though, all signals point to an up cycle...

Sure, but those signals are publicly available and so are baked into the prices (assuming markets are efficient)

As a general philosophy I’m not into going overweight in particular sectors unless you have serious professional expertise in the sectors.

I appreciate that but I just want to dip a toe in, perhaps less than first anticipated!

[NuckyThompson]

The summer in America is known as the ‘driving season’ and typically oil companies do well. Would also expect global demand to increase if restrictions relax but it’s a big if especially for this summer,

I’m invested in one oil company and I do expect it to overshoot true value if America opens up again. Timing is key although and as others have mentioned oil is volatile and we’ve now got the added mix that so is Covid.

I don’t know what the end game is though if the vaccines don’t work as planned. Will it scare the bejesus out of airlines and other forms if transport and demand plummets