Vaccines, new variants, Europe, and the "3rd wave"
Discussion
If I understand this correctly, we're shutting our borders to protect against the new variants sweeping across Europe.
Europe is vaccinating its population, slowly, with the same vaccines we are.
If these vaccines don't work against these new variants, why aren't European Governments calling for new vaccines? And if they do work, why are we so worried about importing them here?
Europe is vaccinating its population, slowly, with the same vaccines we are.
If these vaccines don't work against these new variants, why aren't European Governments calling for new vaccines? And if they do work, why are we so worried about importing them here?
LHRFlightman said:
If I understand this correctly, we're shutting our borders to protect against the new variants sweeping across Europe.
Europe is vaccinating its population, slowly, with the same vaccines we are.
If these vaccines don't work against these new variants, why aren't European Governments calling for new vaccines? And if they do work, why are we so worried about importing them here?
Where is your evidence they do not work?Europe is vaccinating its population, slowly, with the same vaccines we are.
If these vaccines don't work against these new variants, why aren't European Governments calling for new vaccines? And if they do work, why are we so worried about importing them here?
In any case what is you definition.
Not work at all?
50% effective
70% effective.
I'm not sure how you expect the scientists to magic a new vaccine when they're just beginning to understand these variants.
Surely it is a sensible risk mitigation strategy to limit travel.
jet_noise said:
Am I right that the current EU "wave" is (largely) a UK export - the Kent variant?
As we were fortunate(!) to see it first, some say our 2nd wave was helped by it, it's already done its thing so there's no need.
Isn't it the UK variant because it was discovered here rather than because it mutated here (could still have done, of course)?As we were fortunate(!) to see it first, some say our 2nd wave was helped by it, it's already done its thing so there's no need.
My understanding is that other countries do nothing like the volume of genome testing that we do in the UK (apparently we have done more than 50% of all genome testing on COVID-19).
jet_noise said:
Am I right that the current EU "wave" is (largely) a UK export - the Kent variant?
As we were fortunate(!) to see it first, some say our 2nd wave was helped by it, it's already done its thing so there's no need.
I think what we did wrong was to name any variations of the virus with where they were first identified. The Kent variation didn't originate in Kent. I was identified there.As we were fortunate(!) to see it first, some say our 2nd wave was helped by it, it's already done its thing so there's no need.
LHRFlightman said:
If these vaccines don't work against these new variants...
Where's the evidence for this?From an article looking at the situation in India dated 25/3. Is there anything wrong with it and/or anything more recent?
"ICMR Director-General Dr Balram Bhargava.... was asked if the vaccines that are being used right now in India are effective against the three new variants of concern -- the UK variant, South African variant and the Brazilian variant. 'It is well established by research studies in published literature that the vaccines available in our country -- both Covishield and Covaxin -- are effective against the UK and the Brazilian variants. The research work regarding the South African variant is ongoing at the moment' he added."
LHRFlightman said:
I'm not saying the vaccines don't work.
I'm saying why the terror about the variants sweeping Europe, if the vaccines work against them?
Is there in the general population there is very little fear in the media maybe so but they love to push the fear along with saga. The more pressing issue is in Europe itself with such a poor vaccine roll out.I'm saying why the terror about the variants sweeping Europe, if the vaccines work against them?
jet_noise said:
Am I right that the current EU "wave" is (largely) a UK export - the Kent variant?
As we were fortunate(!) to see it first, some say our 2nd wave was helped by it, it's already done its thing so there's no need.
The current EU wave is largely being drive by the "UK" variant (B1.1.7). B.1.1.7 variant no accounts for about 99+% of new cases in the UK, and we also know that the current vaccines are highly effective against it. As a result, B.1.1.7 is NOT the current concern.As we were fortunate(!) to see it first, some say our 2nd wave was helped by it, it's already done its thing so there's no need.
The concern is the other variants, such as the Brazilian P1 variant, and more importantly the South African B.1.351.
The P1 and B.1.351 variants have got regional footholds in mainland Europe, and like the B.1.1.7 seem to be significantly more infectious than the "wild" type, so while they are small in numbers, there is the risk that they could in time become the dominant variant. The B.1.1.7 variant was first discovered in the UK about 6 months ago - and it remained at very low numbers for several weeks, before taking off shortly before Christmas - and now, it has completely taken over in the UK.
The B.1.351 variant is of particular concern, because the mutations may reduce vaccine efficacy - there is in greatly reduced antibody binding in in vitro tests of moderna and pfizer vaccines, and a clinical trial of AZ vaccine in SA showed a disappointing result of 10% efficacy against B.1.351, prompting SA to abandon a roll-out of AZ vaccine
Both the P1 and B.1.351 are only present at low levels in mainland Europe, and they have mainly been linked to travel from affected countries (i.e. brazil and SA). The UK has had a number of outbreaks of B.1.351 during the current lockdown period, but they have largely come under control. However, there are new hotspots with uncontrolled outbreaks in France, Germany, Belgium and Austria.
The U.K. recorded over 4700 cases in the last 24 hours, so it’s a reasonable to assume that we are at the start of our next exponential wave. There are gaping holes in the vaccination campaign, there are a lot of people who can’t have a vaccine for medical reasons, and a truck load of idiots have been taking the pee out of the restrictions for the last couple of months. The experts seem to think we are on course to see a lockdown easing de railing wave hitting in mid to late June, or July at the latest. ( exactly when the ‘road map’ has us being completely released from lockdown). Buckle up Dorothy, Kansas is going bye bye. It’s not like the idiots breaking regs weren’t told ( repeatedly) to stop it. Oh well, let’s hope they learn this time, and we get out of it by this time next year. There are already variants ( in France ) that seem to be able to swerve both antibodies and white blood corpuscles, which is ‘game over’ for the vaccines that are out there already. I completely despair. Hold on, we’re going around again people, but we’ve not got much fuel left. This is going to be ‘new world order’ stuff. What you see now, is going to be the way of the world for generations to come. Human Coronaviruses, are, and always have been a complete and utter game finisher. There’s no way we can stay ahead of them, we’ve had since 1918 to practice, and never managed it as yet.
Edited by Maximus_Meridius101 on Saturday 27th March 21:15
Maximus_Meridius101 said:
The U.K. recorded over 4700 cases in the last 24 hours, so it’s a reasonable to assume that we are at the start of our next exponential wave.
Hang on, it was 6000 a couple of days ago. If it keeps going down at the same rate, we will be covid free by a week on Tuesday
Maximus_Meridius101 said:
There are gaping holes in the vaccination campaign, there are a lot of people who can’t have a vaccine for medical reasons, and a truck load of idiots have been taking the pee out of the restrictions for the last couple of months. The experts seem to think we are on course to see a lockdown easing de railing wave hitting in mid to late June, or July at the latest. ( exactly when the ‘road map’ has us being completely released from lockdown). Buckle up Dorothy, Kansas is going bye bye. It’s not like the idiots breaking regs weren’t told ( repeatedly) to stop it.
Increased cases as restrictions are eased? Yeah, almost bound to happen to some extent. Hopefully minimally.If the "idiots breaking the rules" had had any effect, R wouldn't be falling. Cant have it both ways. (More likely, certain jobs cant be done from home, therefore cv19 will still circulate even in lockdown)
Maximus_Meridius101 said:
Oh well, let’s hope they learn this time, and we get out of it by this time next year. There are already variants ( in France ) that seem to be able to swerve both antibodies and white blood corpuscles, which is ‘game over’ for the vaccines that are out there already. I completely despair. Hold on, we’re going around again people, but we’ve not got much fuel left. This is going to be ‘new world order’ stuff. What you see now, is going to be the way of the world for generations to come. Human Coronaviruses, are, and always have been a complete and utter game finisher. There’s no way we can stay ahead of them, we’ve had since 1918 to practice, and never managed it as yet.
Which brings us on to how to deal with cv19.....lockdowns, testing and restrictions forever, or jab the vunerable, open up - and accept there will be some deaths ongoing, as per flu. I'm firmly in the latter campEdited by Maximus_Meridius101 on Saturday 27th March 21:15
Edited by johnboy1975 on Saturday 27th March 21:32
Maximus_Meridius101 said:
The U.K. recorded over 4700 cases in the last 24 hours, so it’s a reasonable to assume that we are at the start of our next exponential wave. There are gaping holes in the vaccination campaign, there are a lot of people who can’t have a vaccine for medical reasons, and a truck load of idiots have been taking the pee out of the restrictions for the last couple of months. The experts seem to think we are on course to see a lockdown easing de railing wave hitting in mid to late June, or July at the latest. ( exactly when the ‘road map’ has us being completely released from lockdown). Buckle up Dorothy, Kansas is going bye bye. It’s not like the idiots breaking regs weren’t told ( repeatedly) to stop it. Oh well, let’s hope they learn this time, and we get out of it by this time next year. There are already variants ( in France ) that seem to be able to swerve both antibodies and white blood corpuscles, which is ‘game over’ for the vaccines that are out there already. I completely despair. Hold on, we’re going around again people, but we’ve not got much fuel left. This is going to be ‘new world order’ stuff. What you see now, is going to be the way of the world for generations to come. Human Coronaviruses, are, and always have been a complete and utter game finisher. There’s no way we can stay ahead of them, we’ve had since 1918 to practice, and never managed it as yet.
So this wave you are predicting for the ongoing continuous lockdown breaking is going to appear in 8-12 weeks time, is Covid on holiday or doing a go slow at the moment. Remind me what the incubation period is.Edited by Maximus_Meridius101 on Saturday 27th March 21:15
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