Discussion
Couldn't see a thread
So, how long will Ukraine continue to be a country?
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/world-europe-566786...
Crimea invaded and occupied...no military response
Donbass region invaded and occupied...no military response
Given the west probably don't want ww3, it would be a fair bet Russia can do what it likes without consequence.
Obviously there are are considerations about ethnic Russians living in Ukraine, but if every country invaded another with ethnic populations, we'd run out of ww numbers pretty quickly.
Maybe it's all just a distraction whilst Putin resets the clock on presidential terms?
So, how long will Ukraine continue to be a country?
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/world-europe-566786...
Crimea invaded and occupied...no military response
Donbass region invaded and occupied...no military response
Given the west probably don't want ww3, it would be a fair bet Russia can do what it likes without consequence.
Obviously there are are considerations about ethnic Russians living in Ukraine, but if every country invaded another with ethnic populations, we'd run out of ww numbers pretty quickly.
Maybe it's all just a distraction whilst Putin resets the clock on presidential terms?
Screwing around with Ukraine is an easy sabre rattling move for Putin and provides easy distractions against pesky noises from home like Navalny and the endemic corruption. It also puts a bit of pressure on the West especially Biden on seeing how far he can push before reigning himself back in.
With Ukraine not being a member of NATO, there’s not much other countries can do except impose sanctions or expel diplomats, all of which plays into Putin’s hands. NATO countries will not come to Ukraine’s aid militarily. If he moves on one or more of the Baltic states then it’s a completely different kettle of fish and, I believe, there’s a similar racial mix of ethnic Russians compared to Ukraine but even Putin knows that’ll be a step too far, for now...
Saying that, I wouldn’t put it past him to try something in order to activate article 6 among nato nations but I also think that that time has passed for now as his puppet, Trump, is no longer or any influence or significance.
With Ukraine not being a member of NATO, there’s not much other countries can do except impose sanctions or expel diplomats, all of which plays into Putin’s hands. NATO countries will not come to Ukraine’s aid militarily. If he moves on one or more of the Baltic states then it’s a completely different kettle of fish and, I believe, there’s a similar racial mix of ethnic Russians compared to Ukraine but even Putin knows that’ll be a step too far, for now...
Saying that, I wouldn’t put it past him to try something in order to activate article 6 among nato nations but I also think that that time has passed for now as his puppet, Trump, is no longer or any influence or significance.
valiant said:
Screwing around with Ukraine is an easy sabre rattling move for Putin and provides easy distractions against pesky noises from home like Navalny and the endemic corruption. It also puts a bit of pressure on the West especially Biden on seeing how far he can push before reigning himself back in.
With Ukraine not being a member of NATO, there’s not much other countries can do except impose sanctions or expel diplomats, all of which plays into Putin’s hands. NATO countries will not come to Ukraine’s aid militarily. If he moves on one or more of the Baltic states then it’s a completely different kettle of fish and, I believe, there’s a similar racial mix of ethnic Russians compared to Ukraine but even Putin knows that’ll be a step too far, for now...
Saying that, I wouldn’t put it past him to try something in order to activate article 6 among nato nations but I also think that that time has passed for now as his puppet, Trump, is no longer or any influence or significance.
You know article 6 is the geographical restrictions part that doesn't actually need to be activated?With Ukraine not being a member of NATO, there’s not much other countries can do except impose sanctions or expel diplomats, all of which plays into Putin’s hands. NATO countries will not come to Ukraine’s aid militarily. If he moves on one or more of the Baltic states then it’s a completely different kettle of fish and, I believe, there’s a similar racial mix of ethnic Russians compared to Ukraine but even Putin knows that’ll be a step too far, for now...
Saying that, I wouldn’t put it past him to try something in order to activate article 6 among nato nations but I also think that that time has passed for now as his puppet, Trump, is no longer or any influence or significance.
The "ethnic Russian" population stuff is a complete red herring, and there's a real risk of falling for Putin's bulls
t if you make the assumption that "Russian-speaking" implies any sense of allegiance to Russia rather than the Ukraine, or any need of protection by Russia, or indeed any responsibility of Russia to supervise the treatment of that part of the population. It's as assinine as claiming that the British government has a role supervising and intervening in Eire because the predominant language south of the border in Ireland is English.
t if you make the assumption that "Russian-speaking" implies any sense of allegiance to Russia rather than the Ukraine, or any need of protection by Russia, or indeed any responsibility of Russia to supervise the treatment of that part of the population. It's as assinine as claiming that the British government has a role supervising and intervening in Eire because the predominant language south of the border in Ireland is English.It's similar to Georgia, Russia taking bits when they want.
When I'd drive down the main east-west highway my phone would say welcome to Russia despite being miles from the recognized border.
However, both countries have infrastructure that is important to Europe, so I wonder if there is a limit to what Russia would do?
In Georgia I'd be surprised if Russia was allowed to take the BTC pipeline for example. There must be similar in Ukraine?
When I'd drive down the main east-west highway my phone would say welcome to Russia despite being miles from the recognized border.
However, both countries have infrastructure that is important to Europe, so I wonder if there is a limit to what Russia would do?
In Georgia I'd be surprised if Russia was allowed to take the BTC pipeline for example. There must be similar in Ukraine?
It's a couple of years old, but I found this a fascinating insight into the war in Ukraine.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_CMby_WPjk4
I'm still unsure what Russia's ultimate motivation is. Crimea was obviously a Naval base and so that makes a level of sense from Russia's POV after the revolution. Continued aggression I suppose weakens a neighbour, but the costs can't be insignificant either.
I think the West is doing its usual thing of making a lot of noise but ultimately lacking commitment to it's principles. See also the Arab spring.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_CMby_WPjk4
I'm still unsure what Russia's ultimate motivation is. Crimea was obviously a Naval base and so that makes a level of sense from Russia's POV after the revolution. Continued aggression I suppose weakens a neighbour, but the costs can't be insignificant either.
I think the West is doing its usual thing of making a lot of noise but ultimately lacking commitment to it's principles. See also the Arab spring.
valiant said:
Screwing around with Ukraine is an easy sabre rattling move for Putin and provides easy distractions against pesky noises from home like Navalny and the endemic corruption. It also puts a bit of pressure on the West especially Biden on seeing how far he can push before reigning himself back in.
With Ukraine not being a member of NATO, there’s not much other countries can do except impose sanctions or expel diplomats, all of which plays into Putin’s hands. NATO countries will not come to Ukraine’s aid militarily. If he moves on one or more of the Baltic states then it’s a completely different kettle of fish and, I believe, there’s a similar racial mix of ethnic Russians compared to Ukraine but even Putin knows that’ll be a step too far, for now...
Saying that, I wouldn’t put it past him to try something in order to activate article 6 among nato nations but I also think that that time has passed for now as his puppet, Trump, is no longer or any influence or significance.
Fortunately for Putin, Biden doesn't know where Ukraine is. With Ukraine not being a member of NATO, there’s not much other countries can do except impose sanctions or expel diplomats, all of which plays into Putin’s hands. NATO countries will not come to Ukraine’s aid militarily. If he moves on one or more of the Baltic states then it’s a completely different kettle of fish and, I believe, there’s a similar racial mix of ethnic Russians compared to Ukraine but even Putin knows that’ll be a step too far, for now...
Saying that, I wouldn’t put it past him to try something in order to activate article 6 among nato nations but I also think that that time has passed for now as his puppet, Trump, is no longer or any influence or significance.
The US and EU are complicit in destabilising Ukraine, by encouraging regime change in 2014. That was like sticking pins in the Russian bear. I’m don’t think Russia would go for a full scale invasion - the cost would be too great, but they thrive on the chaos that minor conflict provides.
abzmike said:
The US and EU are complicit in destabilising Ukraine, by encouraging regime change in 2014. That was like sticking pins in the Russian bear. I’m don’t think Russia would go for a full scale invasion - the cost would be too great, but they thrive on the chaos that minor conflict provides.
This is also falling for a bullst Russian narrative.ATG said:
The "ethnic Russian" population stuff is a complete red herring, and there's a real risk of falling for Putin's bullst if you make the assumption that "Russian-speaking" implies any sense of allegiance to Russia rather than the Ukraine, or any need of protection by Russia, or indeed any responsibility of Russia to supervise the treatment of that part of the population. It's as assinine as claiming that the British government has a role supervising and intervening in Eire because the predominant language south of the border in Ireland is English.
Not particularly as the borders between Russia and Ukraine were never strictly drawn along ethnic lines when they were part of one state and many areas of the Ukraine were virtually empty until they could be secured against Tartar raids in the days of the Russian empire and settled afterwards, with settlers from both Russia and the rest of the Ukraine. t if you make the assumption that "Russian-speaking" implies any sense of allegiance to Russia rather than the Ukraine, or any need of protection by Russia, or indeed any responsibility of Russia to supervise the treatment of that part of the population. It's as assinine as claiming that the British government has a role supervising and intervening in Eire because the predominant language south of the border in Ireland is English.Kharkov for example was a small fort settlement in the mid seventeenth century before later economic development. It had a population that had 63% considered to be Russian at the start of the twentieth century (as that was the origin of the majority of the settlers who came there by that point) and this has fallen to about a third of the population now.
As in so many parts of Eastern Europe it is complicated and that is before we get into discussions of exactly how separate "Ukrainians" and "Russians" are from one another. Given that they were one people at the time England became one country before later fragmenting and parts being taken into other empires. Ukraine after all simply means border lands. The border between the realms of the people of the Rus and other lands.
The Ukraine and Russia relationship is quite a complicated one, some Ukrainians literally detest Russians blaming them for the death of millions during the famine and at the hands of Stalin while others consider themselves ethnic Russians and have a great love for Russia.
Russia's next move will be interesting.
Russia's next move will be interesting.
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/ukraine-g7-fore...
Not even in the news. Pubs are open, who cares?
Not even in the news. Pubs are open, who cares?
MX5Biologist said:
The Budapest Memorandum on Security Assurances gives assurances, not guarantees. Diplomatically, this means the signatories are justified to come to the aid of the Ukraine, but not obliged to. China is one of those signatories assuring the security of the Ukraine.
Russia's interpretation:
https://twitter.com/RussianEmbassy/status/69232168...
"Lavrov: Russia never violated Budapest memorandum. It contained only 1 obligation, not to attack Ukraine with nukes"
Ahh so err we convinced them to give up their only realistic defence against the Russians with in effect “we’ll think about it?”Russia's interpretation:
https://twitter.com/RussianEmbassy/status/69232168...
"Lavrov: Russia never violated Budapest memorandum. It contained only 1 obligation, not to attack Ukraine with nukes"
So Russia will not use nuclear weapons against Ukrainian territory, but any conventional forces are free to be used.
Seems like someone got a pretty raw deal.
nikaiyo2 said:
Ahh so err we convinced them to give up their only realistic defence against the Russians with in effect “we’ll think about it?”
So Russia will not use nuclear weapons against Ukrainian territory, but any conventional forces are free to be used.
Seems like someone got a pretty raw deal.
Think the US did the same when Russian troops showed up in Crimea- "don't react, we'll handle this diplomatically"... cue a week of sitting on your hands while Russia takes a chunk out of your country before figuring out you're actually on your own.So Russia will not use nuclear weapons against Ukrainian territory, but any conventional forces are free to be used.
Seems like someone got a pretty raw deal.
In Finland they often debate joining NATO, but there is a lot of skepticism about anyone going to war to help them. Watching Ukraine won't help.
I also wonder how much of the civil service / military are up for sale. The country must leak like a sieve.
Ian Geary said:
Crimea invaded and occupied...no military response
Donbass region invaded and occupied...no military response
The majority of the population of Crimea are Russian, think of themselves as Russian, and want to be Russian. "Self determination of peoples" as the founding principles of the UN put it. Crimea was an integral part of Russia from about the founding date of the United States. Donbass region invaded and occupied...no military response
Crimea is part of Russia now and there is no conceivable sequence of events short of a cataclysmic collapse of states and withdrawing of borders that can make it otherwise. Sensible politics would recognise that, and work towards a deal that would bring peace to the rest of Ukraine - some sort of fig leaf fiction of a "federal" solution should do it.
But we don't want that, as it would "reward" Putin with diplomatic triumph - so we'll let the low level war grumble on and fight to the last Ukrainian as the preferred option.
Octoposse said:
The majority of the population of Crimea are Russian, think of themselves as Russian, and want to be Russian. "Self determination of peoples" as the founding principles of the UN put it. Crimea was an integral part of Russia from about the founding date of the United States.
It is a point well worth highlighting that the reason why seizing the Crimea was so popular with the Russian people is that the validity of Ukrainian rule of the territory was never accepted.No independent entity from which modern day Ukraine could claim descent ever ruled over the Crimea. It was taken by the Russian empire following the Russo Turkish war of 1768-74. It was then developed and settled as their main base in the black sea. Its population has always been over two thirds Russian since WW2 (and was about 50% prior to the deportation of the Crimean Tartars). Many Russian families had family members in the Crimea that they would visit as a holiday.
It was handed over to the Ukraine by Khrushchev in 1954 due to closer links of the province with Ukraine. The population were not consulted and it has been claimed by some that this transfer was against Soviet law.
It is yet another example of the international community prioritising "lines on the map", no matter how they were formed, over the principal of self determination.
Gassing Station | News, Politics & Economics | Top of Page | What's New | My Stuff