Investing in synthetic fuel - wise?

[daveco]

Has/does anyone here invest in synthetic fuel companies?

If Porsche's synthetic fuel becomes a success, does one invest in the parent company, i.e. VW, or Porsche directly?

As you can see, I'm ignorant on these matters

[clarky92]

Following - I would like to know aswell

[GliderRider]

I've had shares in Velocys (VLS) for nearly seven years . They are still in the 'Jam tomorrow' stage, from what I can see. Whilst there is clearly interest from airlines and truck fleet operators, the demand for carbon free energy, and the resulting move towards hydrogen and fuel cells for propulsion, could make the window of opportunity for synthetic fuels relatively short.

[daveco]

GliderRider said:

I've had shares in Velocys (VLS) for nearly seven years . They are still in the 'Jam tomorrow' stage, from what I can see. Whilst there is clearly interest from airlines and truck fleet operators, the demand for carbon free energy, and the resulting move towards hydrogen and fuel cells for propulsion, could make the window of opportunity for synthetic fuels relatively short.

Appreciate your insight. I'd like to read your opinion on a few points below.

Wouldn't the synthetic efuel that Porsche are producing essentially be carbon neutral as it uses CO2 and hydrogen in its application?

Hydrogen fuel cell applications have no infrastructure outside of Germany and a few other countries and even then it is sparse.

Hydrogen fuel cell power would also require large tanks, so not suitable for smaller vehicles.

With synthetic fuel the infrastructure is already there-petrol engines don't need to be upgraded to run on the fuel.

The production of synthetic fuel would reduce the reliance on middle eastern oil output.

The production of synthetic fuel would reduce the excessive cost of locating, drilling for and extracting fossil fuels/oils.

Formula 1 stated they will never go electric as well so I'm assuming they'll be using Porsche's efuel for that which would mean all forms of ICE motor racing will eventually make the switch as well?

Mazda also planning a HC straight 6 petrol and diesel engine by 2023/2024 which would be widely adopted across all its platforms.

Edited by daveco on Friday 14th May 10:33

[Simpo Two]

daveco said:

Wouldn't the synthetic efuel that Porsche are producing essentially be carbon neutral as it uses CO2 and hydrogen in its application?

I don't know, but when you burn it you'll be releasing them again. So something that is 'carbon neutral' to make may not be so neutral when you use it. If it IS 'carbon neutral' all the way through, which seems unlikely, then the current stampede to electric power might look a bit silly.

If the world does go to EVs I doubt very much that F1 will continue to burn anything that emits CO2 - they have an image to consider.

Edited by Simpo Two on Friday 14th May 11:22

[GliderRider]

daveco said:

GliderRider said:

I've had shares in Velocys (VLS) for nearly seven years . They are still in the 'Jam tomorrow' stage, from what I can see. Whilst there is clearly interest from airlines and truck fleet operators, the demand for carbon free energy, and the resulting move towards hydrogen and fuel cells for propulsion, could make the window of opportunity for synthetic fuels relatively short.

Appreciate your insight. I'd like to read your opinion on a few points below.

daveco said:

Wouldn't the synthetic efuel that Porsche are producing essentially be carbon neutral as it uses CO2 and hydrogen in its application?

eFuel certainly looks an interesting proposition. If it is possible to create the fuel on site without importing the primary constituents, this would be ideal for more remote areas (Porsche mention South America) where any conventional fuel may require a considerable amount of fuel to be used to get it to the point of retail sale.

daveco said:

Hydrogen fuel cell applications have no infrastructure outside of Germany and a few other countries and even then it is sparse.

To me that is just because of where we are in the development of Hydrogen. Germany has a massive car industry, so it is in their interests to develop all options at an early stage. With the exception of high mileage users, such as trucks, reps and service engineers, I expect very limited take up of hydrogen in the UK.

daveco said:

Hydrogen fuel cell power would also require large tanks, so not suitable for smaller vehicles.

Various methods of hydrogen storage are being developed, such as capture in metal hydrides, so I'm expecting storage density to increase pretty rapidly in the short to medium term. Having said that, smaller vehicles are more likely to be used on shorter journeys, so they are the best candidates for pure electric power.

daveco said:

With synthetic fuel the infrastructure is already there-petrol engines don't need to be upgraded to run on the fuel.

True. Although new production of petrol/diesel vehicles may stop, these vehicles will be around for a long time, particularly in countries that run significant numbers of imported secondhand vehicles, and the majority of the population would never buy new.

daveco said:

The production of synthetic fuel would reduce the reliance on middle eastern oil output.

Also true. The oil producing companies are significant investors in many of the alternative fuel technologies, as they can see their positions on the world stage waning unless they move beyond fossil fuels.

daveco said:

The production of synthetic fuel would reduce the excessive cost of locating, drilling for and extracting fossil fuels/oils.

Certainly the less efficient and more polluting extraction methods, such as shale oil are likely to be the first to go. Methods of making fuel from biomass, which might otherwise rot, releasing methane and CO2 have their place, certainly for long range aviation fuel, although over time this market will diminish as range and payload improve with electic and hydrogen aircraft.

daveco said:

Formula 1 stated they will never go electric as well so I'm assuming they'll be using Porsche's efuel for that which would mean all forms of ICE motor racing will eventually make the switch as well?

FormulaE without the noise, just isn't the same as Formula 1, but when they say 'never', I have my doubts! When the electric Formulae start to outperform Formula 1 in all respects, what will be F1's relevance?

daveco said:

Mazda also planning a HC straight 6 petrol and diesel engine by 2023/2024 which would be widely adopted across all its platforms.

The Japanese with their global markets are looking at all the countries that will be way behind on renewable infrastructure. When you are on dirt roads all day and half your load is jerry cans of fuel so you can reach your destination, an electric or hydrogen car isn't a lot of use.

Synthetic fuel will have its place, but given how inefficient piston engines are (Off the top of my head, something like 33% for petrol, maybe 40% for diesel without the complexity of turbo-compounding), they are becoming anachronisms.

[xeny]

daveco said:

Wouldn't the synthetic efuel that Porsche are producing essentially be carbon neutral as it uses CO2 and hydrogen in its application?

I've not looked closely, but IC engines also produce nitrous oxides, and various carbon particulates. Does this fuel address those issues? If not, I suspect long term the direction of travel will be electric or hydrogen based as they also address those problems.

[daveco]

Thanks for the responses GR

Xeny, I'm not sure, though I did find another article on it here https://www.carmagazine.co.uk/car-news/tech/what-i...

It looks like production of the fuel is going to ramp up very quickly by 2026.

Maybe Siemens Energy are a better bet??

[Frankthered]

xeny said:

daveco said:

Wouldn't the synthetic efuel that Porsche are producing essentially be carbon neutral as it uses CO2 and hydrogen in its application?

I've not looked closely, but IC engines also produce nitrous oxides, and various carbon particulates. Does this fuel address those issues? If not, I suspect long term the direction of travel will be electric or hydrogen based as they also address those problems.

In theory, the efuel is carbon neutral - as long as the energy used to capture the CO2 and break it and the water down to free the carbon and hydrogen is from renewable sources. This also needs to include the energy required to make it into methanol and complete the MTL process.

What you get at the end of the process is essentially petrol, or a close equivalent, so yes, it will produce some CO, hydrocarbon and NOx emissions.

NOx is produced by the high temperature of combustion breaking down the nitrogen in the air, so it is difficult to avoid! Even burning H2 will result in the production of NOx, although there is obviously no issues with CO or HC.

[xeny]

Frankthered said:

NOx is produced by the high temperature of combustion breaking down the nitrogen in the air, so it is difficult to avoid! Even burning H2 will result in the production of NOx, although there is obviously no issues with CO or HC.

Certainly.

Isn't the plan for hydrogen powered cars to generate electricity using a fuel cell, which AFAIK avoids that problem?