Does heathrow need a 3rd runway

[saaby93]

Cant find a thread on this - there must be one about the need for 3rd runway

Traffic numbers are way down - how far do they need to climb for the plans to be sustainable?

https://simpleflying.com/heathrow-recovery-still-a...

[Jimbo.]

It’s almost as if something happened in 2020 and 2021 to kibosh international air travel.

[Chainsaw Rebuild]

I wonder if air travel will be permanently down? There must be a huge number of people who used to fly for meetings but now do it online. Which is good - less traffic, reduced carbon footprint, reduced costs etc.

[louiebaby]

I don't know if business flying will ever recover to the levels it once was.

So probably not, no.

[megaphone]

No it doesn't and never really did. There is lots of spin about how there will not be enough capacity, London losing out to Frankfurt blah blah. The fact is I've flown out of Heathrow hundreds of times and I have never failed to get a flight, there are always flights available.

[Unknown_User]

Whether we need a 3rd runway or not is irrelevant, Bozza clearly stated that he doesn't want or need another runway.

In fact, good ole Bozza said he would lay down in front of the bulldozers to stop them...!!!

In Bozza we trust.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/airport-expansi...

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/hea...

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/uk-37760630

https://www.thelondoneconomic.com/politics/council...

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-02-12...

https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/squirming-bo...

[Simpo Two]

Jimbo. said:

It’s almost as if something happened in 2020 and 2021 to kibosh international air travel.

Yes; I'm surprised the OP didn't allow for that in his proposal!

Maybe business passengers will be lower afterwards but we've seen how desperate people are to fly overseas for holidays, even in a pandemic.

That aside, my view is that Heathrow is a big enough butthole already.

[48k]

Simpo Two said:

Jimbo. said:

It’s almost as if something happened in 2020 and 2021 to kibosh international air travel.

Yes; I'm surprised the OP didn't allow for that in his proposal!

Maybe I'm reading it wrong but I think that was the OP's point/question ie. "following the pandemic and potential change in profile of international air travel, will there be a case for a third runway at Heathrow?"

[Simpo Two]

48k said:

Maybe I'm reading it wrong but I think that was the OP's point/question ie. "following the pandemic and potential change in profile of international air travel, will there be a case for a third runway at Heathrow?"

It may have been, but he didn't say it. His proposal and graph make no mention of the pandemic, neither does the link.

[Mabbs9]

megaphone said:

No it doesn't and never really did. There is lots of spin about how there will not be enough capacity, London losing out to Frankfurt blah blah. The fact is I've flown out of Heathrow hundreds of times and I have never failed to get a flight, there are always flights available.

I've flown from Heathrow thousands of times and the delays that used to exist cost the environment quite badly. Plus costs to carriers too which knocks on to fares.

Whether it'll be needed in the future is obviously unknown but I suspect yes in 5-10yrs.

[williamp]

Were going to build back better after the pandemic. This means a more sustainable way. So no,no third runway

[48k]

Simpo Two said:

48k said:

Maybe I'm reading it wrong but I think that was the OP's point/question ie. "following the pandemic and potential change in profile of international air travel, will there be a case for a third runway at Heathrow?"

It may have been, but he didn't say it. His proposal and graph make no mention of the pandemic, neither does the link.

My point was that he didn't have to explicitly say the traffic had dropped due to the pandemic as he's implying it by having a graph only showing the year before the pandemic (as a control value) and the two years of the pandemic, which illustrates how far the traffic numbers have dropped due to the pandemic. And asking "how far do they need to climb for the plans to be sustainable".
Or maybe I'm wrong, and the OP just happened to only show last three years for some other random reason, and the author of the article in the link just decided to write about Heathrow recovery for absolutely no reason whatsoever, just because neither of them use the words "pandemic" or "Covid 19".

[JuniorD]

saaby93 said:

Cant find a thread on this - there must be one about the need for 3rd runway

Traffic numbers are way down - how far do they need to climb for the plans to be sustainable?

https://simpleflying.com/heathrow-recovery-still-a...

It's fairly plain to see from the figures that Heathrow doesn't need a second runway, let alone a third. They're been running single runway operations for a while now anyway. The second runway should be put up for sale redevelopment, housing or something, and in the meantime be used for a socially distanced Sunday market or trackday location. The chance to offload surplus real estate doesn't come around too often.

[IanH755]

Simpo Two said:

48k said:

Maybe I'm reading it wrong but I think that was the OP's point/question ie. "following the pandemic and potential change in profile of international air travel, will there be a case for a third runway at Heathrow?"

It may have been, but he didn't say it. His proposal and graph make no mention of the pandemic, neither does the link.

Just to be clear, as they didn't specifically mention the biggest upheaval in air travel, global economy and lifestyle changes this generation has ever seen, do you think they're either ignoring the biggest global event since 9/11 or that they just don't know about it?

[48k]

JuniorD said:

It's fairly plain to see from the figures that Heathrow doesn't need a second runway, let alone a third. They're been running single runway operations for a while now anyway. The second runway should be put up for sale redevelopment, housing or something, and in the meantime be used for a socially distanced Sunday market or trackday location. The chance to offload surplus real estate doesn't come around too often.

Heathrow has been back to dual runway ops since 14 December 2020.

Also don't overlook the fact that the graph only shows passenger numbers not cargo.

To suggest Heathrow only needs one runway is fanciful nonsense.

[JuniorD]

48k said:

JuniorD said:

It's fairly plain to see from the figures that Heathrow doesn't need a second runway, let alone a third. They're been running single runway operations for a while now anyway. The second runway should be put up for sale redevelopment, housing or something, and in the meantime be used for a socially distanced Sunday market or trackday location. The chance to offload surplus real estate doesn't come around too often.

Heathrow has been back to dual runway ops since 14 December 2020.

Also don't overlook the fact that the graph only shows passenger numbers not cargo.

To suggest Heathrow only needs one runway is fanciful nonsense.

You certainly know a piss take when you see one!

Here’s Heathrow’s current (Jan 2021 - July 2021) single runway ops schedule which you might find informative.

https://www.heathrow.com/content/dam/heathrow/web/...

[Simpo Two]

IanH755 said:

Just to be clear, as they didn't specifically mention the biggest upheaval in air travel, global economy and lifestyle changes this generation has ever seen, do you think they're either ignoring the biggest global event since 9/11 or that they just don't know about it?

Because the data as presented just says 'Ooh look air travel is down by 90%, let's stop building runways.' It fails to acknowledge that the fall is directly and completely caused by the pandemic, which will pass. Hence by not ascribing the fall to the pandemic (which seems a curious and glaring omission) the argument is specious.

[48k]

JuniorD said:

48k said:

JuniorD said:

It's fairly plain to see from the figures that Heathrow doesn't need a second runway, let alone a third. They're been running single runway operations for a while now anyway. The second runway should be put up for sale redevelopment, housing or something, and in the meantime be used for a socially distanced Sunday market or trackday location. The chance to offload surplus real estate doesn't come around too often.

Heathrow has been back to dual runway ops since 14 December 2020.

Also don't overlook the fact that the graph only shows passenger numbers not cargo.

To suggest Heathrow only needs one runway is fanciful nonsense.

You certainly know a piss take when you see one!

Here’s Heathrow’s current (Jan 2021 - July 2021) single runway ops schedule which you might find informative.

https://www.heathrow.com/content/dam/heathrow/web/...

It's a fair cop, gov.

[48k]

Simpo Two said:

IanH755 said:

Just to be clear, as they didn't specifically mention the biggest upheaval in air travel, global economy and lifestyle changes this generation has ever seen, do you think they're either ignoring the biggest global event since 9/11 or that they just don't know about it?

Because the data as presented just says 'Ooh look air travel is down by 90%, let's stop building runways.' It fails to acknowledge that the fall is directly and completely caused by the pandemic, which will pass. Hence by not ascribing the fall to the pandemic (which seems a curious and glaring omission) the argument is specious.

The OP posts a graph illustrating the impact of the pandemic on passenger numbers and asks how far do they need to climb for the plans to be sustainable. So it's doing the exact opposite of what you're claiming - it's acknowledging the impact of the pandemic, and asking at what point in the recovery the numbers make a third runway viable.

Simpo Two said:

His proposal and graph make no mention of the pandemic, neither does the link.

You seriously believe James Pearson authored an article yesterday called "Heathrow Recovery: Still a Long Way to Go" which has nothing to do with the pandemic because it doesn't mention the word pandemic?

[MarkwG]

48k said:

JuniorD said:

48k said:

JuniorD said:

It's fairly plain to see from the figures that Heathrow doesn't need a second runway, let alone a third. They're been running single runway operations for a while now anyway. The second runway should be put up for sale redevelopment, housing or something, and in the meantime be used for a socially distanced Sunday market or trackday location. The chance to offload surplus real estate doesn't come around too often.

Heathrow has been back to dual runway ops since 14 December 2020.

Also don't overlook the fact that the graph only shows passenger numbers not cargo.

To suggest Heathrow only needs one runway is fanciful nonsense.

You certainly know a piss take when you see one!

Here’s Heathrow’s current (Jan 2021 - July 2021) single runway ops schedule which you might find informative.

https://www.heathrow.com/content/dam/heathrow/web/...

It's a fair cop, gov.

I seem to recall the 14th Dec plan was predicated on Johnsons "saving Christmas" plan, which fell on its 4rse.