Merc 2021 Strategy
Discussion
So, there's much bluster that they're not bothering to develop the car, it seems odd to write off an 8th consecutive double title to try and get a jump on the 2022 car. I can only assume pre-budget cap they were spending pretty heavily on the 2022 car...
Anyway, do we really think they'd just throw away a championship to gamble on being ahead for the new regs? If there's another corona surge and 2022 races fall apart, there could be months where the other teams are beavering away catching up etc. Obviously MB will still develop and presumably get further ahead, but it just seems an odd strategy for such a successful team.
One thing that did crop up... The championship leaders are penalised in terms of R&D resources. The cut-off for that is 30th June. Currently MB only get 90% of the total allowed wind tunnel / CFD time, Red Bull 92.5%.
By being second in the championship come tomorrow, that balance will now switch, MB getting 92.5%, Red Bull down to 90%.
Could this have been a deliberate (and extremely cocky) strategy to allow RB to get a bit of a march on MB up until the cut-off, with the expectation that they'd be able to pull it back / turn the cars back up again to thus secure more wind tunnel / CFD time for 2022?
It just seems odd for such a dominant team to just throw away a season for the sake of trying to ensure they dominate again after the regulation changes...
Anyway, do we really think they'd just throw away a championship to gamble on being ahead for the new regs? If there's another corona surge and 2022 races fall apart, there could be months where the other teams are beavering away catching up etc. Obviously MB will still develop and presumably get further ahead, but it just seems an odd strategy for such a successful team.
One thing that did crop up... The championship leaders are penalised in terms of R&D resources. The cut-off for that is 30th June. Currently MB only get 90% of the total allowed wind tunnel / CFD time, Red Bull 92.5%.
By being second in the championship come tomorrow, that balance will now switch, MB getting 92.5%, Red Bull down to 90%.
Could this have been a deliberate (and extremely cocky) strategy to allow RB to get a bit of a march on MB up until the cut-off, with the expectation that they'd be able to pull it back / turn the cars back up again to thus secure more wind tunnel / CFD time for 2022?
It just seems odd for such a dominant team to just throw away a season for the sake of trying to ensure they dominate again after the regulation changes...
Interesting isn't it. I don't think they're willingly throwing it away. They've got a plan & they're sticking with it. It would "appear" (at least to me) that Mercedes thought, pace wise, they'd have a fraction more in Hand this year, possibly for a longer period of time than they've experienced, weren't quite expecting the Red Bull/ Honda development surge now evident. To be fair, Red Bull are (currently) only very slightly ahead with strategy letting Merc down a little. However, from now on that gap will only increase, RB are can smell a Championship in the offing & are going all out to win it especially given that Merc have openly stated they've stopped 2021 development. It's a risky strategy but they do have history, doing the same thing in their Honda incarnation sacrificing both '07 & '08 in prep for '09, and that worked pretty well. On the Face of it, they're "all in" for '22 preparing for a second potential run of domination at the expense of this season. Especially given that a big regulation change has always changed the competitive order. It might just be a brilliant decision.Or not, we'll see.
Edited by KR158 on Tuesday 29th June 10:59
KR158 said:
Interesting isn't it. It would "appear" (at least to me) that Mercedes thought, pace wise, they'd have a fraction more in Hand this year, possibly or a longer period of time than they've experienced, weren't quite expecting the Red Bull/ Honda development surge now evident. To be fair, Red Bull are (currently) only very slightly ahead with strategy letting Merc down a little. However, from now on that gap will only increase, RB are can smell a Championship in the offing & are going all out to win it especially given that Merc have openly stated they've stopped 2021 development. It's a risky strategy but they do have history, doing the same thing in their Honda incarnation sacrificing both '07 & '08 in prep for '09, and that worked pretty well. On the Face of it, they're "all in" for '22.
I don't believe it.More likely said by Toto to put a fraction of doubt in RB's mind as to how much focus they need to now put on next year too.
I genuinely think Mercedes didnt realise that the new floor and tyre regs would have such an effect so they stopped developing.
Combine that with Red Bulls aggressive development from the start of the year from both the engine side and aero side and its proved to be the perfect storm.
Problem is i cant see Mercedes reversing path now, i think theyve got what theyve got and just have to make the best of it. They wont switch focus back onto this years car and ruin their chances over the next 10 years.
The interesting thing for me is what happens next year. Red Bull could well win this year, purely because Mercedes threw in the towel too early and Red Bull in all fairness have done an incredible job. Will that set them up to fair from 2022 onwards though?
Combine that with Red Bulls aggressive development from the start of the year from both the engine side and aero side and its proved to be the perfect storm.
Problem is i cant see Mercedes reversing path now, i think theyve got what theyve got and just have to make the best of it. They wont switch focus back onto this years car and ruin their chances over the next 10 years.
The interesting thing for me is what happens next year. Red Bull could well win this year, purely because Mercedes threw in the towel too early and Red Bull in all fairness have done an incredible job. Will that set them up to fair from 2022 onwards though?
Steamer said:
KR158 said:
Interesting isn't it. It would "appear" (at least to me) that Mercedes thought, pace wise, they'd have a fraction more in Hand this year, possibly or a longer period of time than they've experienced, weren't quite expecting the Red Bull/ Honda development surge now evident. To be fair, Red Bull are (currently) only very slightly ahead with strategy letting Merc down a little. However, from now on that gap will only increase, RB are can smell a Championship in the offing & are going all out to win it especially given that Merc have openly stated they've stopped 2021 development. It's a risky strategy but they do have history, doing the same thing in their Honda incarnation sacrificing both '07 & '08 in prep for '09, and that worked pretty well. On the Face of it, they're "all in" for '22.
I don't believe it.More likely said by Toto to put a fraction of doubt in RB's mind as to how much focus they need to now put on next year too.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/formula1/57651115
Turns out that Merc do have some speed updates planned for 2021 after all...
Turns out that Merc do have some speed updates planned for 2021 after all...
SturdyHSV said:
It just seems odd for such a dominant team to just throw away a season for the sake of trying to ensure they dominate again after the regulation changes...
I don't think they're throwing it away. The car is only a couple of tenths shy of the Red Bull. It's not like they're miles behind.I also don't think it's a case that they're completely not developing the car. I interpret Toto's comments as it will be tweaks, rather than full-on upgrades.
If I were in his chair in a budget-capped world and I had a choice between throwing resources at the next 6 months or the next 3 years, I would be going with the latter.
Loss of winning momentum is a risk, but I would maybe fear some teams who are in the 2021 upper-midfield (and have nothing at all to gain in 2021) for 2022 as much or more than Red Bull - Ferrari being the most obvious one. Maybe McLaren too.
Edited by Muzzer79 on Tuesday 29th June 11:29
MontyPythonX said:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/formula1/57651115
Turns out that Merc do have some speed updates planned for 2021 after all...
So they have upgrades designed earlier in the year which are yet to filter through, but are no longer working on designing any more. Makes sense I suppose. Turns out that Merc do have some speed updates planned for 2021 after all...
This season does feel very much like it's Redbull's to lose now, but then we've had situations in the last few years where I'd have said the same about Ferrari at this point in the season. Not that I think Redbull will implode like Ferrari did.
Jasandjules said:
I would be shocked if we get to say 60% of the races gone and Merc would not develop the car if they are still behind....
If Mercedes get to that point and find themselves in that position, it would be too late to make the decision to develop....i think what ever is in the pipeline at the moment is what theyve got. WickerBill said:
Jasandjules said:
I would be shocked if we get to say 60% of the races gone and Merc would not develop the car if they are still behind....
If Mercedes get to that point and find themselves in that position, it would be too late to make the decision to develop....i think what ever is in the pipeline at the moment is what theyve got. They haven't stopped developing, and won't stop developing. It's just Toto being an old windbag again. He'll be claiming that the team that's won the last seven championships is somehow an underdog next...
It's interesting that Toto Wolff has never been in charge of a losing team, only the winning team he inherited when he bought into Mercedes and pushed Ross Brawn out. He's never really been under any pressure to perform, other than a period in early in 2018, so it will be interesting to see how he reacts if Red Bull really start to turn the screw this season.
It's interesting that Toto Wolff has never been in charge of a losing team, only the winning team he inherited when he bought into Mercedes and pushed Ross Brawn out. He's never really been under any pressure to perform, other than a period in early in 2018, so it will be interesting to see how he reacts if Red Bull really start to turn the screw this season.
I think Merc. have more or less written this season off. Oh don't get me wrong, they will keep doing the best they can as there's still a shed load more cash for coming second vs third but the pre-season rule change basically said "You need to run a high rake design" and that's not the way Merc. had gone for the last few years and, well you can't polish a turd. It doesn't matter how much they spend on the current car won't be enough to overhaul a Red Bull team that are still investing to try and claim this year's title.
No, especially with the cost and development caps the sensible thing for them is to start spending this years money on next years car, based around a higher rake design (assuming that will still be best with the other reg. changes coming in) so you're on the top step again next year with a better developed car than next year's Red Bull.
No, especially with the cost and development caps the sensible thing for them is to start spending this years money on next years car, based around a higher rake design (assuming that will still be best with the other reg. changes coming in) so you're on the top step again next year with a better developed car than next year's Red Bull.
thegreenhell said:
They haven't stopped developing, and won't stop developing. It's just Toto being an old windbag again. He'll be claiming that the team that's won the last seven championships is somehow an underdog next...
It's interesting that Toto Wolff has never been in charge of a losing team, only the winning team he inherited when he bought into Mercedes and pushed Ross Brawn out. He's never really been under any pressure to perform, other than a period in early in 2018, so it will be interesting to see how he reacts if Red Bull really start to turn the screw this season.
talking of windbags....It's interesting that Toto Wolff has never been in charge of a losing team, only the winning team he inherited when he bought into Mercedes and pushed Ross Brawn out. He's never really been under any pressure to perform, other than a period in early in 2018, so it will be interesting to see how he reacts if Red Bull really start to turn the screw this season.
Well at the moment Mercedes are the underdogs....Red Bull are fastest.
Just out of interest, can you point to one major or relatively major development that Mercedes have brought to the car this year? i cant think of any....
Red bull on the other hand have brought new wings, diffusers, engine, oils etc.
Now im not saying Mercedes have stopped developing, but if they have continued as you say, then there is very little evidence of it.
Maybe they will just bring one major upgrade mid season to blow all their tokens in one go and move on to next year.
You think theres no pressure to perform in a winning team? come on!....to keep that level of concentration and success over several years takes a massive amount. You do him and the team a disservice in even suggesting there hasnt been pressure
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