Is an Emira (or similar) going to depreciate at all...
Discussion
...as a second car in the long-ish term?
Say you order an Emira for the launch in the next year or so, if you keep that car beyond 2030 when no more new, manual, combustion powered cars are being made for sale in the UK ever again (and we know in the Emira case it is the last for Lotus) will the car be worth less after that point? I can't help but feel it will depreciate little if at all by that point.
I am thinking of it being used in a second car scenario with low mileage, e.g. 1-3,000 miles a year or something.
I guess the only super long term risk is that driving the car will not be allowed anywhere but race tracks... it seems somewhat improbable to me but maybe that's one of those infamous "they tried to look 10-20 years ahead and didn't have a clue" thoughts - in which case I guess there is a risk of reducing the desirability of ICE sports cars.
I'm wondering what other people think about this....? sometimes it seems to me like it could be a good investment even without much/any appreciation in the value of the vehicle considering all the fun you could have with it (even considering running costs)...
(A similar car I think of right away is the Cayman/Boxster GTS 4.0)
Say you order an Emira for the launch in the next year or so, if you keep that car beyond 2030 when no more new, manual, combustion powered cars are being made for sale in the UK ever again (and we know in the Emira case it is the last for Lotus) will the car be worth less after that point? I can't help but feel it will depreciate little if at all by that point.
I am thinking of it being used in a second car scenario with low mileage, e.g. 1-3,000 miles a year or something.
I guess the only super long term risk is that driving the car will not be allowed anywhere but race tracks... it seems somewhat improbable to me but maybe that's one of those infamous "they tried to look 10-20 years ahead and didn't have a clue" thoughts - in which case I guess there is a risk of reducing the desirability of ICE sports cars.
I'm wondering what other people think about this....? sometimes it seems to me like it could be a good investment even without much/any appreciation in the value of the vehicle considering all the fun you could have with it (even considering running costs)...
(A similar car I think of right away is the Cayman/Boxster GTS 4.0)
Petrol and diesel will not be going anywhere for years and years i build petrol stations and the ev infrastructure is just so far off we will be using petrol and diesel for many years to come and it will just become more and more expensive. Last 8 stations ive built not a single ev charger went in.
Jeff1976 said:
Petrol and diesel will not be going anywhere for years and years i build petrol stations and the ev infrastructure is just so far off we will be using petrol and diesel for many years to come and it will just become more and more expensive. Last 8 stations ive built not a single ev charger went in.
Good to hear. BEVs are Betamax, and only got traction through ridiculous tax breaks.Once people realise that (a) they’re not actually environmentally friendly and (b) the batteries don’t last as long as promised and need to be replaced/disposed of, the bubble will burst. And that’s ignoring the range issues.
Hydrogen is the way forward, not batteries.
There are very few precedents I can think of for a car being worth roughly its new list price at ten years old. I think it's only been where there's been a coincidence of a very special limited production car and a market uplift coming together.
For example, the Ferrari 458 launched at £170k to rave reviews. This ten year old example claims £20k of options, so cost its first owner £190k in 2011, which is ~£250k in today's money. Asking price today is £125k with 22k miles on the clock, so exactly half it's original value, even with it being the last naturally aspirated Ferrari ever and including the present pandemic inflation of car prices.
Over the next nine years there will still be new ICE cars sold, potentially some crackers, and with some level of battery assist for another five years. So over the next decade there will still be the normal level of competition from newer cars, so I can't see a reason not to expect normal depreciation between now and 2030, where holding 50% of initial price would be good.
Beyond 2035 it really will depend. It's possible that electric cars will be so good by then that interest in petrol power is limited - there could be a glut of unwanted petrol cars. It's also possible that electric cars will remain so limiting that the then-government won't go through with the plan. So it's far from obvious that being phased out will make what will then be a nine year old Lotus suddenly jump in value.
At best I'd expect the ICE phaseout to be a tailwind for subsequent values of cars like the Emira from 2035 onwards. Performance cars often start rising in value from 15 years or so old anyway, and this factor could enhance that uplift (but starting from at most 50% of the new price). So the resulting depreciation/appreciation curve probably wouldn't be that different from what other similar sports cars have seen in the past.
Bottom line, I don't think a government policy that may or may not take effect nine and fourteen years hence is going to change the fact that if you buy a brand new car today, it must be expected to depreciate for many years to come.
For example, the Ferrari 458 launched at £170k to rave reviews. This ten year old example claims £20k of options, so cost its first owner £190k in 2011, which is ~£250k in today's money. Asking price today is £125k with 22k miles on the clock, so exactly half it's original value, even with it being the last naturally aspirated Ferrari ever and including the present pandemic inflation of car prices.
Over the next nine years there will still be new ICE cars sold, potentially some crackers, and with some level of battery assist for another five years. So over the next decade there will still be the normal level of competition from newer cars, so I can't see a reason not to expect normal depreciation between now and 2030, where holding 50% of initial price would be good.
Beyond 2035 it really will depend. It's possible that electric cars will be so good by then that interest in petrol power is limited - there could be a glut of unwanted petrol cars. It's also possible that electric cars will remain so limiting that the then-government won't go through with the plan. So it's far from obvious that being phased out will make what will then be a nine year old Lotus suddenly jump in value.
At best I'd expect the ICE phaseout to be a tailwind for subsequent values of cars like the Emira from 2035 onwards. Performance cars often start rising in value from 15 years or so old anyway, and this factor could enhance that uplift (but starting from at most 50% of the new price). So the resulting depreciation/appreciation curve probably wouldn't be that different from what other similar sports cars have seen in the past.
Bottom line, I don't think a government policy that may or may not take effect nine and fourteen years hence is going to change the fact that if you buy a brand new car today, it must be expected to depreciate for many years to come.
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