Could the pandemic have been prevented?
Discussion
For 20 years, maybe more, I read predictions in science magazines and sometimes newspapers that at some point there would be a global pandemic. So the emergence of Covid 19 is hardly a surprise. Yet when it did arise the world was not prepared. Had there been clear, agreed protocols in place could it have been contained in China? It seemed madness at the time that China had already introduced draconian measures to stop the spread yet no attempts were made to stop isolate China from the rest of the world. Hopefully when the next virus appears there will be a better response.
I suspect the problem is that it would have taken time, effort and a fair amount of money to put a proper pandemic prevention system into place and despite the cost of doing so being a minuscule fraction of the financial cost of Covid (not to mention the lives lost and all the other negative impacts) humans don’t seem very good at making upfront sacrifices.
You can the same at work with environmental destruction and climate change. The risks are generally recognised, governments know what needs to be done but action is deferred or delayed because it would be too costly or too bothersome.
I suspect the problem is that it would have taken time, effort and a fair amount of money to put a proper pandemic prevention system into place and despite the cost of doing so being a minuscule fraction of the financial cost of Covid (not to mention the lives lost and all the other negative impacts) humans don’t seem very good at making upfront sacrifices.
You can the same at work with environmental destruction and climate change. The risks are generally recognised, governments know what needs to be done but action is deferred or delayed because it would be too costly or too bothersome.
Someone in academia will do some analysis and it'll all be very obvious at where failures occurred. Not that it'll mean next time such a thing occurs that anyone will take heed of what happened last time.
There's probably some exceedingly obvious reasons as to why this virus spread so rapidly and some of those reasons may be a consequence of accepted "things". Some reasons will be off-limits to discuss. Popular scapegoats for things in general will somehow become the primary cause of any of the negative outcomes of this event.
Then there'll be those who have benefited from the whole thing and who may not want such an event to be prevented, to whatever extent, in the future....
There's probably some exceedingly obvious reasons as to why this virus spread so rapidly and some of those reasons may be a consequence of accepted "things". Some reasons will be off-limits to discuss. Popular scapegoats for things in general will somehow become the primary cause of any of the negative outcomes of this event.
Then there'll be those who have benefited from the whole thing and who may not want such an event to be prevented, to whatever extent, in the future....
China initially concealed the existence of the virus ..so preventing it's spread.
Could the global spread have been significantly reduced? Very much so.
Some Asian countries such as Singapore put in immediate control measures. Deaths here are 30+ in total since March 2020 out of nearly 6 million residents. One in 200,000. Hospitals have not been overwhelmed.
The UK failed to act decisively with border control, testing, tracing and quarantine. Despite being able to see what other countries had done that worked.
Hence 150,000 (?) Deaths ...about one in 400?
so 500x the death rate of here..... Sad and preventable
Could the global spread have been significantly reduced? Very much so.
Some Asian countries such as Singapore put in immediate control measures. Deaths here are 30+ in total since March 2020 out of nearly 6 million residents. One in 200,000. Hospitals have not been overwhelmed.
The UK failed to act decisively with border control, testing, tracing and quarantine. Despite being able to see what other countries had done that worked.
Hence 150,000 (?) Deaths ...about one in 400?
so 500x the death rate of here..... Sad and preventable
Not-The-Messiah said:
It could have been prevented if scientists didn't stupidly mess around with dangerous viruses and have proper procedures in place to stop them getting out into the public, by the looks of it.
And if you were going to do something as stupid as gain of function work on coronaviruses, perhaps dont do it in a lab bang in the middle of a city with a population of 12m.Actually....you are right. Just don't
Follow China's example?
In late Jan 2020 I flew to Prague for a work event. There were people from all over EMEA there and the guys from Dubai said their A380 was 50% Chinese. They were worried at the time, I couldn't see what all the fuss was about but they disinctly said it was like an exodus.
In late Jan 2020 I flew to Prague for a work event. There were people from all over EMEA there and the guys from Dubai said their A380 was 50% Chinese. They were worried at the time, I couldn't see what all the fuss was about but they disinctly said it was like an exodus.
anonymous said:
[redacted]
You are absolutely right We should have conducted gain of function research into a highly transmissible virus in the centre of a city of 12 million people
Then we should have had poor bio security in the lab
Then we should have completely covered up the leak of the virus, the infection and spread whilst locking down internally
Then we should have told the world and WHO “nothing to see here”
Then we should have “disappeared” those whistleblowers that tried to warn the world what was going on in Wuhan
So, absolutely we should have done exactly what China did
20 years ago, I went to watch my father preach in a village Methodist church, as he was a lay preacher.
His sermon listed everything in the book of Reverlation that described the second coming, the day of judgement, the end of the world.
He listed things like floods, and pestilance, and fires and plagues, and for each one, he listed a few events around the world over the previous 6 months.
If you believe him, then you've got to believe this is God's build up to the end, and there's nothing we can ultimately do.
Unfortunately for him, there were only 7 people in.the congregation and 2 were me and my mother, and the others were very old. And probably not l listening.
I stopped going to church after that. apart from.Weddings and children's concerts.
His sermon listed everything in the book of Reverlation that described the second coming, the day of judgement, the end of the world.
He listed things like floods, and pestilance, and fires and plagues, and for each one, he listed a few events around the world over the previous 6 months.
If you believe him, then you've got to believe this is God's build up to the end, and there's nothing we can ultimately do.
Unfortunately for him, there were only 7 people in.the congregation and 2 were me and my mother, and the others were very old. And probably not l listening.
I stopped going to church after that. apart from.Weddings and children's concerts.
|https://thumbsnap.com/pJfSwQWx[/url]I think after a certain amount of spread it can’t be prevented if it has a high enough reproduction rate. Even Australia are fighting a losing battle.
You can of course delay things, but the cost/benefit in doing that is questionable depending on characteristics of the virus.
Covid is in the “sweet spot” of not harming or killing many people and also spreading quite easily. If it was a more dangerous disease that spread a little less we would probably have been on top of it by now.
You can of course delay things, but the cost/benefit in doing that is questionable depending on characteristics of the virus.
Covid is in the “sweet spot” of not harming or killing many people and also spreading quite easily. If it was a more dangerous disease that spread a little less we would probably have been on top of it by now.
dmahon said:
I think after a certain amount of spread it can’t be prevented if it has a high enough reproduction rate. Even Australia are fighting a losing battle.
You can of course delay things, but the cost/benefit in doing that is questionable depending on characteristics of the virus.
Covid is in the “sweet spot” of not harming or killing many people and also spreading quite easily. If it was a more dangerous disease that spread a little less we would probably have been on top of it by now.
Australia is in a very untenable position, only 9% vaccinated, huge anti vax sentiment and only protected by brutal and excessive lockdowns You can of course delay things, but the cost/benefit in doing that is questionable depending on characteristics of the virus.
Covid is in the “sweet spot” of not harming or killing many people and also spreading quite easily. If it was a more dangerous disease that spread a little less we would probably have been on top of it by now.
Question clearly is how long can they maintain that position?
A friend made an interesting (maybe) argument to me recently. If we locked everyone in their house for three weeks, if they die they die, but three weeks later covid would be gone as it would have no host to spread. Not sure on the veracity of that but although I disagreed with him I could see the cold logic.
anonymous said:
[redacted]
I agree the vaccine rollout has been slower here..but It wouldn't call it woeful. Around 60% have had at least on dose and maybe half both doses?Taiwan has hardly vaccinated anyone for some strange reason. And their virus control was good....now they are in lockdown again. They should have vaccinated
anonymous said:
[redacted]
But you’re not though are you, you are living a life that is “normal” superficially but not one that is equivalent to 2019 You have embraced and accepted sever curtailing of your freedoms which has come at great economic cost to NZ
As the pandemic moves through and past the rest of the world and life, business, the economy, tourism etc return to normal how will you feel in your island prison subject to serious ongoing curtailment of your liberty
What is the endgame ?
What do you see the exit strategy being ?
Where do you see Oz and Nz in 5/10 years time, still isolated from the rest of the world with broken economies ?
Earthdweller said:
dmahon said:
I think after a certain amount of spread it can’t be prevented if it has a high enough reproduction rate. Even Australia are fighting a losing battle.
You can of course delay things, but the cost/benefit in doing that is questionable depending on characteristics of the virus.
Covid is in the “sweet spot” of not harming or killing many people and also spreading quite easily. If it was a more dangerous disease that spread a little less we would probably have been on top of it by now.
Australia is in a very untenable position, only 9% vaccinated, huge anti vax sentiment and only protected by brutal and excessive lockdowns You can of course delay things, but the cost/benefit in doing that is questionable depending on characteristics of the virus.
Covid is in the “sweet spot” of not harming or killing many people and also spreading quite easily. If it was a more dangerous disease that spread a little less we would probably have been on top of it by now.
Question clearly is how long can they maintain that position?
They were perfectly (and pretty much uniquely) placed (geography wise) to shut up shop and wait for the vaccine. A risky strategy without a vaccine....but it paid off.
25m population......50m doses of AZ (for those that want it).......£100m quid and then back to normal.
Is it a supply issue, or a hesitancy issue, or both?
Cutting themselves off for a long time (forever?) Is surely not a credible position?
Earthdweller said:
But you’re not though are you, you are living a life that is “normal” superficially but not one that is equivalent to 2019
You have embraced and accepted sever curtailing of your freedoms which has come at great economic cost to NZ
As the pandemic moves through and past the rest of the world and life, business, the economy, tourism etc return to normal how will you feel in your island prison subject to serious ongoing curtailment of your liberty
What is the endgame ?
What do you see the exit strategy being ?
Where do you see Oz and Nz in 5/10 years time, still isolated from the rest of the world with broken economies ?
Curtailed freedom? Eh? Compared to the UK we have had hardly any restrictions except the ability to travel but then NZ is so far from the rest of the world it isn’t like you can pop across to other countries like you can from the UK. Apart from that Life has pretty much felt normal for most of the past year. You have embraced and accepted sever curtailing of your freedoms which has come at great economic cost to NZ
As the pandemic moves through and past the rest of the world and life, business, the economy, tourism etc return to normal how will you feel in your island prison subject to serious ongoing curtailment of your liberty
What is the endgame ?
What do you see the exit strategy being ?
Where do you see Oz and Nz in 5/10 years time, still isolated from the rest of the world with broken economies ?
You are right that there needs to be an endgame. We are assuming that once the vaccines have been rolled out (hopefully by the end of the year) the borders will be opened and we will live with Covid like the rest of the world.
This all sounds a bit like the "should China be brought to account" thread.
Key thoughts from me
- whilst someone somewhere probably guessed they would be a pandemic, someone else somewhere probably guessed we would be invaded by aliens.
- the cost of the "world government" (not sure we're yet in the starship troopers universe, but hey) being prepared for *every* such scenario would be staggering.
- the UK was just finishing 3 years of hassle leaving a joint political project, which gives some inkling of how an attempt at unified political direction would go.
- this at a time when the NHS could only just keep up and lurched to crisis every winter
So, the idea that covid was "not expected" doesn't fly to me.
I think questions need asking of why the UK didn't heed it's already existing pandemic modelling...partly because China concealed/ didn't know about its spread...partly because the UK executive branch of government is, let's say, disjointed.
Finally, would a severe lockdown have worked?
For a small population island in the Pacific, or a peninsula, we can see the evidence. But the UK
- has a big chunk of its population with relatives living abroad
- is an international business hub
- it's economy (food supplies etc) are very interconnected.
Whilst the comparison with north Korea's pending famine due to boarder restrictions is probably too far: the UK's food shortage went little beyond having to queue outside Tesco for a bit and maybe having to buy an inferior brand of tomato ketchup (they are NOT made in the same factory). But I doubt we would obey a full on restriction of the UK had to go on an "arduous march".
Key thoughts from me
- whilst someone somewhere probably guessed they would be a pandemic, someone else somewhere probably guessed we would be invaded by aliens.
- the cost of the "world government" (not sure we're yet in the starship troopers universe, but hey) being prepared for *every* such scenario would be staggering.
- the UK was just finishing 3 years of hassle leaving a joint political project, which gives some inkling of how an attempt at unified political direction would go.
- this at a time when the NHS could only just keep up and lurched to crisis every winter
So, the idea that covid was "not expected" doesn't fly to me.
I think questions need asking of why the UK didn't heed it's already existing pandemic modelling...partly because China concealed/ didn't know about its spread...partly because the UK executive branch of government is, let's say, disjointed.
Finally, would a severe lockdown have worked?
For a small population island in the Pacific, or a peninsula, we can see the evidence. But the UK
- has a big chunk of its population with relatives living abroad
- is an international business hub
- it's economy (food supplies etc) are very interconnected.
Whilst the comparison with north Korea's pending famine due to boarder restrictions is probably too far: the UK's food shortage went little beyond having to queue outside Tesco for a bit and maybe having to buy an inferior brand of tomato ketchup (they are NOT made in the same factory). But I doubt we would obey a full on restriction of the UK had to go on an "arduous march".
Ian Geary said:
I think questions need asking of why the UK didn't heed it's already existing pandemic modelling...partly because China concealed/ didn't know about its spread...partly because the UK executive branch of government is, let's say, disjointed.
Finally, would a severe lockdown have worked?
I agree pretty much Finally, would a severe lockdown have worked?
I’ve highlighted two points, firstly I think the U.K. Gov along with others were caught off guard and “panicked” when they saw the scenes from China and particularly Italy
Once one introduced lockdowns and others started to follow then the instinct to follow the herd took over from years of detailed and exhaustive planning
They basically threw it out of the window so as not to appear the outlier and to satisfy the clamour .. a sign of lack of conviction or spine without doubt
Whether the “plan” if followed would have had a different outcome we’ll never know
One the second point I don’t think a severe lockdown would have worked in the U.K. for two reasons the first being it was too late when the magnitude was realised and more importantly the nature of society, governance and policing and the relationship between them
The U.K. has neither the history of martial law that most of Europe has, nor the same culture of policing by compliance let alone the numbers to enforce a lockdown
The U.K. had no choice and a draconian lockdown was unenforceable and so the U.K. had to rely on public goodwill and consent to restrictions
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