Recession just round the corner?
Discussion
minimax said:
certainly I think it is fair to say that people are running out of equity to release and spend, and that this has been propping up the economy partly in the last few years.
And with the coming together of credit cards at their limits,(without scaremongering) all i can see on the horizon is a financial version of the "Big Bang"
ZR1cliff said:
certainly I think it is fair to say that people are running out of equity to release and spend, and that this has been propping up the economy partly in the last few years.
And with the coming together of credit cards at their limits,(without scaremongering) all i can see on the horizon is a financial version of the "Big Bang"
well quite, and there's little equity left for them to raise and dig themselves out of their hole!
In a perverse kind of way, i wish there was a downturn. At least i could get all the jobs on the house done.
You wouldnt believe the amount of plasterers / builders / tilers / etc etc that turn down or price themselves too high because of the amount of work out there.
Just as in 87 as soon as the s**t hits the fan, they'll be the 1st ones on the phone 'begging' for the business.
>> Edited by cinque on Tuesday 19th July 16:17
You wouldnt believe the amount of plasterers / builders / tilers / etc etc that turn down or price themselves too high because of the amount of work out there.
Just as in 87 as soon as the s**t hits the fan, they'll be the 1st ones on the phone 'begging' for the business.
>> Edited by cinque on Tuesday 19th July 16:17
cinque said:
In a perverse kind of way, i wish there was a downturn. At least i could get all the jobs on the house done.
You wouldnt believe the amount of plasterers / builders / tilers / etc etc that turn down or price themselves too high because of the amount of work out there.
Just as in 87 as soon as the s**t hits the fan, they'll be the 1st ones on the phone 'begging' for the business.
You'd be surprised how well they do if the market nosedives.
I work in the retail sector of the construction market and when there's a down turn retailers spend their way out of a low point in the market.
What that means is the trades move from other market refurbishments and new builds to retail new builds and refurbs.
Pretty much the same for consultants too, we were taking on new staff to cope with the work load all the way through the last recession.
Come on,
we have been in a recession for the last 6 months, nothing has been shifting in the housing sector, high street spending is in a big trough, debt is at an all time high, the BoE is on about DROPPING the base rate, come on people, smell the coffee. The only good thing is that the red tops have not been advertising the fact like the last time with 2" text on the front page, that only succeeds in panicking the middle classes into not spending which only exacerbates the effects.
Greg
we have been in a recession for the last 6 months, nothing has been shifting in the housing sector, high street spending is in a big trough, debt is at an all time high, the BoE is on about DROPPING the base rate, come on people, smell the coffee. The only good thing is that the red tops have not been advertising the fact like the last time with 2" text on the front page, that only succeeds in panicking the middle classes into not spending which only exacerbates the effects.
Greg
I have a lame-brain, hence the lame-mans terms below, but this is how I see it.
Housing boom - your house is in effect worth say 30-80% more than it was 5 years ago. Therefore in theory you have more money. Then people spend against this so called 'wealth' (cards etc..) the goverment start to crap themselves that so many people are borrowing and then raise the bank of england rate which pushes mortgages up. This quashes the housing boom, people realise they cannot spend/borrow as easily as they have and so stop/tighten their belts. This then effects the retail sector (which is a main part, 25%?? of the economy??) Retailers have less profits, smaller retailers go bust and we all assume a resession is on the way. I just think this is all perception of personal/UK wealth not actual wealth (if you understand what I mean).
Personally I'd bet against a recession, if there was to be one, then you could say we've been in one for the past year or so. However I think the bank of england will lower the base rate in the next month or so in order to get people spending again and thus have 'money go-round' again.
there's my half-penneth
Housing boom - your house is in effect worth say 30-80% more than it was 5 years ago. Therefore in theory you have more money. Then people spend against this so called 'wealth' (cards etc..) the goverment start to crap themselves that so many people are borrowing and then raise the bank of england rate which pushes mortgages up. This quashes the housing boom, people realise they cannot spend/borrow as easily as they have and so stop/tighten their belts. This then effects the retail sector (which is a main part, 25%?? of the economy??) Retailers have less profits, smaller retailers go bust and we all assume a resession is on the way. I just think this is all perception of personal/UK wealth not actual wealth (if you understand what I mean).
Personally I'd bet against a recession, if there was to be one, then you could say we've been in one for the past year or so. However I think the bank of england will lower the base rate in the next month or so in order to get people spending again and thus have 'money go-round' again.
there's my half-penneth
Recession is something that strikes different industries at different times in the recessionary / growth cycle. For example some go into recession first (haulage is one such example)and come out first depending on what service they provide within the overall economy.
It is widely thought that the only factor keeping the UK out of the early stages of an official recession is this bloody Government, spending at hugely inflated levels as it does, something that cannot carry on forever.
It is widely thought that the only factor keeping the UK out of the early stages of an official recession is this bloody Government, spending at hugely inflated levels as it does, something that cannot carry on forever.
ZR1cliff said:
The only thing that goes against the grain in a recession is they want to build more houses,up to 1200 a year in my area alone
Paid for with borrowed money at low rates. They'll be left high and dry if they lose their jobs or the interst rate doubles.
I predict a BIG collapse, I just don't know when.
cinque said:
In a perverse kind of way, i wish there was a downturn. At least i could get all the jobs on the house done.
You wouldnt believe the amount of plasterers / builders / tilers / etc etc that turn down or price themselves too high because of the amount of work out there.
Just as in 87 as soon as the s**t hits the fan, they'll be the 1st ones on the phone 'begging' for the business.
Yeah, cheers for that, and I hope you prosper too.
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