How much is the black economy worth
How much is the black economy worth
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Gecko1978

Original Poster:

12,302 posts

181 months

Friday 6th August 2021
quotequote all
Following on from the botched killing that led to an innocent student dying in Blackburn. Those involved in the killing according to the Guardian were in a dispute of a tyer business....yeah sure it was that an nothing else.

But how much is the black economy worth, it must be a sizable chunk of GDP and I would assume the ONS can estimate it based in Tax receipts versus actually spending on goods and services in the UK.

I recently had my driveway redone and paid the nice gentleman in cash as far as I am aware he paid or will pay all the relevant tax on that and paving is not illegal. But when you see tyer fitters driving Audi RS6s etc one has to wonder how much money moves around the economy that is just not part of the transparent economic activity of the nation.

stongle

5,910 posts

186 months

Friday 6th August 2021
quotequote all
2019, NCA estimate was around £100bn+. Its a conservative measure, as only accounts for "known" activity. Its likely larger, and clearer increased with the fraud around Furlough and Bounce Back loans - which is in the billions.

If you include facilitation of foreign crime(s) etc (we have an advanced legislative tool kit that can capture this so we can clobber the likes of Sanjay Shah, Airbus etc), its going to be even larger - although that may or maynot be relevent for inclusion Vs GDP...

markcoznottz

7,155 posts

248 months

Friday 6th August 2021
quotequote all
Gecko1978 said:
Following on from the botched killing that led to an innocent student dying in Blackburn. Those involved in the killing according to the Guardian were in a dispute of a tyer business....yeah sure it was that an nothing else.

But how much is the black economy worth, it must be a sizable chunk of GDP and I would assume the ONS can estimate it based in Tax receipts versus actually spending on goods and services in the UK.

I recently had my driveway redone and paid the nice gentleman in cash as far as I am aware he paid or will pay all the relevant tax on that and paving is not illegal. But when you see tyer fitters driving Audi RS6s etc one has to wonder how much money moves around the economy that is just not part of the transparent economic activity of the nation.
Probably dumping the old tyres in the country side as well.

Gecko1978

Original Poster:

12,302 posts

181 months

Friday 6th August 2021
quotequote all
markcoznottz said:
Gecko1978 said:
Following on from the botched killing that led to an innocent student dying in Blackburn. Those involved in the killing according to the Guardian were in a dispute of a tyer business....yeah sure it was that an nothing else.

But how much is the black economy worth, it must be a sizable chunk of GDP and I would assume the ONS can estimate it based in Tax receipts versus actually spending on goods and services in the UK.

I recently had my driveway redone and paid the nice gentleman in cash as far as I am aware he paid or will pay all the relevant tax on that and paving is not illegal. But when you see tyer fitters driving Audi RS6s etc one has to wonder how much money moves around the economy that is just not part of the transparent economic activity of the nation.
Probably dumping the old tyres in the country side as well.
I see a lot of outwordly affluent young people at gym I go to (course they may live at home and there only bill might be the C63) I have a feeling 100bn might actually not even be a big enough number certianly if you can tax evasion in the same bucket then a lot of cash in the economey is just invisible

markcoznottz

7,155 posts

248 months

Friday 6th August 2021
quotequote all
Gecko1978 said:
markcoznottz said:
Gecko1978 said:
Following on from the botched killing that led to an innocent student dying in Blackburn. Those involved in the killing according to the Guardian were in a dispute of a tyer business....yeah sure it was that an nothing else.

But how much is the black economy worth, it must be a sizable chunk of GDP and I would assume the ONS can estimate it based in Tax receipts versus actually spending on goods and services in the UK.

I recently had my driveway redone and paid the nice gentleman in cash as far as I am aware he paid or will pay all the relevant tax on that and paving is not illegal. But when you see tyer fitters driving Audi RS6s etc one has to wonder how much money moves around the economy that is just not part of the transparent economic activity of the nation.
Probably dumping the old tyres in the country side as well.
I see a lot of outwordly affluent young people at gym I go to (course they may live at home and there only bill might be the C63) I have a feeling 100bn might actually not even be a big enough number certianly if you can tax evasion in the same bucket then a lot of cash in the economey is just invisible
There are a lot of people who have a lifestyle that certainly isn’t paid for by working in greggs.

Gecko1978

Original Poster:

12,302 posts

181 months

Friday 6th August 2021
quotequote all
markcoznottz said:
There are a lot of people who have a lifestyle that certainly isn’t paid for by working in greggs.
that is kind of my point its not like you know 1 dodgy bloke its your aware of many people doing this (I might add here I am not sure I care about tax evasion more out an out crime like drug an people trafficking). Seems to me there are some people who are just untouchable an not because they are head of russian mafia because the police just do nothing or cant or are told not to

ntiz

2,646 posts

160 months

Friday 6th August 2021
quotequote all
I don’t know what you are taking about. I’m absolutely sure the bloke who owned the crappy shisha bar I spent far to much time at was paying for his SLR Mclaren with the proceeds from the bar. laugh

You do wonder when sometimes it’s so obvious. Although I guess the challenge for the police is knowing someone is dodgy and proving it are very different things.

404 Page not found

16,681 posts

224 months

Friday 6th August 2021
quotequote all
Plenty of takeaways are 'cash only' (may as well just say 'we screw the exchequer). Surely that's an invitation from the tax man to use his finest toothed comb on their tax return?

I am alright Jack

4,188 posts

167 months

Friday 6th August 2021
quotequote all
404 Page not found said:
Plenty of takeaways are 'cash only' (may as well just say 'we screw the exchequer). Surely that's an invitation from the tax man to use his finest toothed comb on their tax return?
I thought a lot were cash only because of the charges from banks to use card machines.

markcoznottz

7,155 posts

248 months

Friday 6th August 2021
quotequote all
404 Page not found said:
Plenty of takeaways are 'cash only' (may as well just say 'we screw the exchequer). Surely that's an invitation from the tax man to use his finest toothed comb on their tax return?
It does make you wonder. Some Chinese takeaways have been cash only ‘forever’.

Gecko1978

Original Poster:

12,302 posts

181 months

Friday 6th August 2021
quotequote all
anonymous said:
[redacted]
A friend who is a defence lawyer has said pretty much every "chicken shop" in certian parts of london are just a front for other activity

Petrus1983

10,915 posts

186 months

Friday 6th August 2021
quotequote all
Gecko1978 said:
A friend who is a defence lawyer has said pretty much every "chicken shop" in certian parts of london are just a front for other activity
Quite a while ago I was on a table with a group of guys in London that my friend had taken me along to - I knew one of them drove a Lamborghini and also had a F355 in an underground garage - when I congratulated him on the success of his Turkish restaurant everyone looked at me as if I was either joking, or completely dumb.

anonymous-user

78 months

Friday 6th August 2021
quotequote all
I’ve noticed a few shops opening up that only sell US candy/sweets. They’re huge, have drink machines, short-dated stock, and not many customers. I’m sure there’s a niche market for stuff like that but there seems too many to be completely legitimate.

404 Page not found

16,681 posts

224 months

Friday 6th August 2021
quotequote all
I am alright Jack said:
404 Page not found said:
Plenty of takeaways are 'cash only' (may as well just say 'we screw the exchequer). Surely that's an invitation from the tax man to use his finest toothed comb on their tax return?
I thought a lot were cash only because of the charges from banks to use card machines.
The charge it between 0.7 and 0.9% of the transaction...so that's not the reason.
They're as bent as a nine bob note, which is why they need investigating!

tescorank

2,278 posts

255 months

Friday 6th August 2021
quotequote all
I believe a lot of the ice cream shops are a front

Derek Smith

48,893 posts

272 months

Friday 6th August 2021
quotequote all
A student was filming outside a trade-only Wickes. The chap was doing it semi-covertly. It was nothing to do with tax evasion nor anything with regards the shopping there. He got beaten quite severely one morning.

The reporting PC came to me and asked if I would explain the realities of life to a uni professor. She completely absolved herself of blame, saying it was up to us to make the location safe. Our super phoned the uni top bods, and suggested to them that unless the prof acknowledged she was allowing her students to take risk, they would probably get hit by civil claims. She complained via complaints procedure, but it went nowhere, and it meant, of course, her bosses had spoken to her about care of students.




Countdown

47,534 posts

220 months

Friday 6th August 2021
quotequote all
How hard would it be to create an IT programme that looks at somebody's bank accounts and cross checks the income against their HMRC PAYE or Self assessment records? Would that be a reasonable or proportionate way of cracking down on criminal activity?

survivalist

6,106 posts

214 months

Friday 6th August 2021
quotequote all
Our local hand carwash place charges £6 per car. I imagine that many customers who have a £6 wash are on their books as having the £75 'full valet'.

The sooner we dispense with the notion that a war on drugs is one that can be 'won' the better.

biggbn

30,376 posts

244 months

Friday 6th August 2021
quotequote all
Gecko1978 said:
Following on from the botched killing that led to an innocent student dying in Blackburn. Those involved in the killing according to the Guardian were in a dispute of a tyer business....yeah sure it was that an nothing else.

But how much is the black economy worth, it must be a sizable chunk of GDP and I would assume the ONS can estimate it based in Tax receipts versus actually spending on goods and services in the UK.

I recently had my driveway redone and paid the nice gentleman in cash as far as I am aware he paid or will pay all the relevant tax on that and paving is not illegal. But when you see tyer fitters driving Audi RS6s etc one has to wonder how much money moves around the economy that is just not part of the transparent economic activity of the nation.
I presume you got a good deal on the cash driveway? Like you, am happy to operate on trust and pay cash. Strange how its usually so much cheaper though, isn't it?

Ian Geary

5,385 posts

216 months

Friday 6th August 2021
quotequote all
This topic reminds me of a push a few years ago to start including the criminal/ shadow economy in GDP figures

https://www.ft.com/content/65704ba0-e730-11e3-88be...

The article isn't that clear, but estimated a couple of percent added to GDP.

But criminal activity in totality must go way beyond this, because, well, criminal gangs are not charities after all.