I just can’t understand why ?

[Thankyou4calling]

This country isn’t on its knees?

When the Pandemic started I think most thought house prices would drop, unemployment would sky rocket, streets would be empty and shops would be boarded up.

There would be riots, economic meltdown and personal bankruptcies at an unprecedented level.

Yet .......

It hasn’t happened.

Of course there are localised and individual issues but, and I’m generalising, life has gone on.

Shops are still opening, airlines are somehow still going, extensions are being built, there’s no more crime, suicides or house evictions than previously.

It’s in some ways quite astonishing.

I’m interested to know others thoughts. More of a lounge than news perspective.

[CrutyRammers]

They printed loads of money and everyone's just agreed never to talk about it, is my impression.

[simonw67]

Fear to drive compliance. Didn't work.

[anonymous-user]

A lot of businesses aren't paying their rent. When they have to they will fold.

[valiant]

Furlough and business loans.

We’ll be paying it back no doubt but over a much longer time frame through tax rises and whatnot.

Can you imagine the carnage of unemployment and company failures had the above not been the case?

[anonymous-user]

Furlough money and covid loans have kept many businesses afloat but they’re all coming to an end now.

The hidden deaths from covid (due to delayed treatments and mental health etc) probably haven’t appeared yet.

There’s definitely a lot of money been spent though and hopefully viable businesses pre covid can survive and recover.

The U.K. government support has been pretty generous. You go to other countries, even in Europe like Spain and there’s a lot of businesses like bars and restaurants that have closed up and don’t look like they’re reopening.

[toastybase]

CrutyRammers said:

They printed loads of money and everyone's just agreed never to talk about it, is my impression.

It does seem like that yes

[bristolracer]

We are a rich country, G7 and all that, we can borrow at sensible rates
Be thankful
Many countries are going to get a serious kicking, we can carry on with our Ponzi scheme of pushing the debt further down the line as we can afford the repayment

[Wildcat45]

I just can’t get over a feeling that it can’t be that simple.

Like we are sitting on or in a massive bubble.

It’s the weird supply issues. Aren't anomalies in demand supposed to be the indicators economists look out for ahead of a crash?

I’m sitting here in a new house which is piling money on it by the day. Two car dealers have approached me with silly high offers on my car, yet if I sell it they won’t supply a replacement for a year. I can’t get a tradesman to build me a fence or line a room with book shelves. I’m told that if I can, I’ll find wood exceptionally expensive.

My local pubs are doing a roaring trade. There are pop up luxury food places all over.

At the same time the external financial advisors we use for a business I run are telling us to get all our money out of commercial property. My local shopping mall is full of empty units yet I can’t get shifted round here for Amazon and DPD vans.

Like the OP, I just don’t understand .

They say war is a great accelerator of technology. World war brought us advances in plastics medicine rockets etc. If we view the pandemic as a global event like a war, then perhaps what we are seeing is an accelerated version of what would have happened eventually. Tech meaning big offices are no longer needed. Online shopping rendering the shopping mall obsolete.

[Shnozz]

Rufus Stone said:

A lot of businesses aren't paying their rent. When they have to they will fold.

Agree with that, but then why aren’t we seeing the knock on effect on businesses reliant on that rental income, such as massive declines in pension funds etc?

[Sheepshanks]

I suppose, for a start, 20% of people are completely immune from any Covid financial impact as they work for the public sector.

And about 25% (of adults) are pensioners.

So, if you inlcude the kids of public servants, that must be over half the population who are never going to be affected.

[Starfighter]

I had to ho in to town yesterday for the first time in ages. Plenty of people but very short queues to pay would indicate bruising but not buying. I cannot recall ever seeing so many vacancies notices in windows.

[LordFlathead]

The bubble will burst. Economics cannot continue at this rate with inflation creeping up and little that the government can do with interest rates near zero. House prices are outrageous.. something will give sooner or later.

[Maximus Decimus Meridius]

The airlines are flying ? Are they ? I see empty skies compared to 2019.
I see lots of empty shops.

I do see people spending on extensions and home improvements but I suspect this is due to money saved on holidays and cheap loans.

You mention the economy pre-Covid, OP.
Well. this was pretty much stuffed pre-Covid and growth had been sluggish for years.
I don't see how Covid and massive debt can improve anything TBH.
People are enjoying their freedoms at the moment but the word you are looking for is sustainable.

Factor in Brexit and a storm is coming. A big one.

[Sheepshanks]

Maximus Decimus Meridius said:

I do see people spending on extensions and home improvements but I suspect this is due to money saved on holidays and cheap loans.

We're looking at that and architect has told us several of his clients have put work off as prices being quoted are far higher than they were expecting, or are prepared to pay. If that's a wider thing, I wonder how long it'll be before it has an effect on the building trade?

[cossy400]

Sheepshanks said:

Maximus Decimus Meridius said:

I do see people spending on extensions and home improvements but I suspect this is due to money saved on holidays and cheap loans.

We're looking at that and architect has told us several of his clients have put work off as prices being quoted are far higher than they were expecting, or are prepared to pay. If that's a wider thing, I wonder how long it'll be before it has an effect on the building trade?

I think this is down to builders not being able to get materials as easily as they once did, so all the prices have risen for stuff.

I know plaster board and plaster were scarce a while ago, not sure if thats still the case.

[M4cruiser]

CrutyRammers said:

They printed loads of money and everyone's just agreed never to talk about it, is my impression.

Yes, the government has actually done a good job in keeping the country going, if you look at it like that, but ... we shall have to pay for it. There will be huge tax rises for years to come.

[Maximus Decimus Meridius]

I think the way things are at the moment are a bit like this;

https://youtu.be/5HTVMh7fur4

Edited by Maximus Decimus Meridius on Saturday 4th September 13:01

[Shnozz]

M4cruiser said:

CrutyRammers said:

They printed loads of money and everyone's just agreed never to talk about it, is my impression.

Yes, the government has actually done a good job in keeping the country going, if you look at it like that, but ... we shall have to pay for it. There will be huge tax rises for years to come.

Just this week we’ve seen the announcement of the increase in NI. Tip of the iceberg and these taxes will never go back down IMO.

[danny0001uk1]

Wildcat45 said:

I just can’t get over a feeling that it can’t be that simple.

Like we are sitting on or in a massive bubble.

It’s the weird supply issues. Aren't anomalies in demand supposed to be the indicators economists look out for ahead of a crash?

I’m sitting here in a new house which is piling money on it by the day. Two car dealers have approached me with silly high offers on my car, yet if I sell it they won’t supply a replacement for a year. I can’t get a tradesman to build me a fence or line a room with book shelves. I’m told that if I can, I’ll find wood exceptionally expensive.

My local pubs are doing a roaring trade. There are pop up luxury food places all over.

At the same time the external financial advisors we use for a business I run are telling us to get all our money out of commercial property. My local shopping mall is full of empty units yet I can’t get shifted round here for Amazon and DPD vans.

Like the OP, I just don’t understand .

They say war is a great accelerator of technology. World war brought us advances in plastics medicine rockets etc. If we view the pandemic as a global event like a war, then perhaps what we are seeing is an accelerated version of what would have happened eventually. Tech meaning big offices are no longer needed. Online shopping rendering the shopping mall obsolete.

Loads of companies with the bailout loans won't ever pay it back they will be bust before they do.

I know some business owners who took the 50k loan and bunged it straight into bitcoin. Also loads of companies been setup within days and requesting the 50k loans with different companies under the same owner.

Edited by danny0001uk1 on Saturday 4th September 12:38

Edited by danny0001uk1 on Saturday 4th September 12:43